After falling apart during the third fifth of the 2008 season, the Stros (64-64) made an unexpected rebound during the fourth fifth of the season, going 20-13 over that stretch.
Although the Stros’ recent play was more fulfilling to watch than if the club had mailed it for the rest of the season, the risk is that the good result from a small sample size of games deludes Stros management into thinking that the Stros are close to regaining true contender status in the National League. They are not and here’s is a simple reason whey they aren’t.
Despite their relatively good play of late, the Stros remain 14 games behind the NL Central-leading Cubs (77-49) and 9.5 games behind the NL Wildcard-leading Brewers (73-55). Inasmuch as that is even further behind than the Stros stood after their worst stretch of play of the season during the third fifth of the season, the Stros actually lost ground in the race for a playoff spot while playing their best stretch of baseball of the season.
Aggregate RCAA and RSAA numbers provide a simple but revealing reflection of why the Stros cannot contend with the likes of the Cubs and Brewers over the course of a long season. Remember, a club’s RCAA reflects how many more (or fewer) runs that a club’s hitters generate than a National League-average club. Similarly, RSAA measures how many more (or fewer) runs that a club’s pitching staff saves than a National League-average club. Accordingly, a club’s combined RCAA/RSAA number shows how many more (or fewer) runs the club’s hitters have generated and the club’s pitchers have saved in comparison to a National League-average club.
Even with their uptick during the fourth fifth of the season, the Stros aggregate RCAA/RSAA score remains -45 (-24 RCAA/-21 RSAA, which is 12th and 10th respectively among the 16 National League clubs), meaning that the Stros have generated and saved 45 fewer runs this season than a National League-average club. That’s not much worse than where the Stros stood after 60% of the season (-42 = -41 RCAA/-1 RSAA), but the fact remains that the decidedly below-average performance means that the Stros have actually been quite lucky to generate a record of as many wins as losses over the season to date.
On the other hand, the Cubs have a stout RCAA/RSAA of 176 (71 RCAA/105 RSAA) and the Brewers a respectable 77 (33 RCAA/44 RSAA), which means that the Cubs have created and saved a startling 221 more runs (and the Brewers 122 more runs) this season than the Stros. Although the Stros are lucky to be near a .500 record for the season, there is no amount of luck that would allow them to contend against the likes of the Cubs and Brewers given that RCAA/RSAA differential.
The theme of this season — as with most Stros’ seasons since 2003 — has been well below-average hitting. That trend continued during the most recent fifth of the season with a couple of notable exceptions, which is the primary reason that the Stros rebounded a bit.
Although the Stros best hitter, 1B Lance Berkman, cooled off during the fourth fifth of the season (56 RCAA/.431 OBA/.597 SLG/1.028 OPS, but only 3 RCAA in the 34 games), but LF Carlos Lee (30 RCAA/.368 OBA/.569 SLG/.937 OPS and 16 RCAA in 22 games before his injury) and then 3B Ty Wigginton (16 RCAA/.373 OBA/.541 SLG/.914 OPS, including 13 RCAA in 33 games) really picked up the slack. 2B Kaz Matsui (4 RCAA/.348 OBA/.415 SLG/.763 OPS, including 7 RCAA in 26 games) also showed signs of life, but then he went back on the disabled list, where he spends way too much time to be a dependable MLB regular player.
Unfortunately, two Stros hitters upon whom club management was heavily relying — SS Miguel Tejada (-17 RCAA/.319/.420/.739) and RF Hunter Pence (-17 RCAA/.300 OBA/.435 SLG/.735) — continued to have nightmarish seasons and are two of the worst-performing regular players in the National League this season.
Moreover, if you combine the players who have manned the Stros’ centerfield (Michael Bourn -24 RCAA and Darren Erstad -6 RCAA) and catcher (J.R. Towles -15 RCAA, Brad Ausmus -12 RCAA, and Humberto Quintero -10 RCAA), four of the Stros’ eight positions are among the worst-performing positions in the Natonal League this season. That’s a sure-fire prescription for a bad team.
Meanwhile, most of the Stros’ pitchers in the most recent fifth of the season continued their season-long performance of around National League-average except for starters Brandon Backe and Wandy Rodriguez.
Backe (-19 RSAA/5.62 ERA) was one of the worst pitchers in the National League over his past 7 starts (-13 RSAA), which prompted Chronicle sports columnist Richard Justice to recommend that Backe be made a pillar of next season’s Stros staff (again, why is Justice allowed to write about sports?).
Rodriguez (4 RCAA/4.11 ERA, but -6 RSAA over his last 8 starts) has not been as bad as Backe, but his declining performance as the season wears on confirms that he is, at best, a back-end rotation starter. Geoff Geary, considered a throw-in in the Brad Lidge-for-Bourn trade, has been the most effective Stros hurler through 80% of the season (13 RSAA/2.41 ERA).
By the way, Geary’s performance this season has been quite comparable to that of Lidge (13 RSAA/2.06 ERA). Inasmuch as the Stros have not committed to Geary anywhere near the $37 million-plus that the Phillies recently committed to Lidge, it’s not at all clear that the Lidge-for-Bourn deal was a bad one for the Stros despite Bourn’s ineptitude this season.
As for Stros management, it’s still too early to say whether they have charted a course for returning the Stros to a playoff contender. Management did a good job in signing the Stros’ top draft picks this season, which is a good start in restocking a farm system that has been seriously depleted over the past decade. Also, management has continued to make patchwork moves, such as bringing in veteran pitchers Randy Wolf (-2 RSAA/5.13 ERA) and LaTroy Hawkins (3 RSAA/0.00 ERA), that at least show that the club wants to make the best of it despite the team’s non-contender status.
On the other hand, why on earth does Stros management pick up the contract of Giants castoff, IF Jose Castillo (-24 RCAA/.290 OBA/.381 SLG/.671)? Castillo is one of few National League infielders who actually makes Tejada look productive by comparison. It’s moves such as these that make me scratch my head and wonder whether GM Ed Wade really has a plan for rebuilding the Stros or is simply casting about aimlessly?
Oh well. After finishing the series with the Mets (71-57) this weekend in New York, the Stros return home for three-game sets against the Reds (56-72) and then the Cardinals (71-58) before going back on the road to begin the final month of the season against the Cubs and the Rockies (59-70). Teams can expand their rosters in early September after completion of the minor league season, so here’s hoping that Stros management allows the meager young talent on the club and in its farm system to get a taste of the Show over the final month rather than wasting that valuable playing time on veterans who will never pan out.
The 2008 season statistics for the Stros are below (through 127 games), courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros’ 40 man roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:
