The Cardinals took advantage of the Stros’ shaky middle relief to overcome yaks by Beltran, JK, Berkman, and Lamb in beating the Stros 10-7 in the first game of the 2004 National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium in St. Louis on Wednesday night.
The Stros had a couple of leads in this one after Beltran’s yak in the first and JK’s in the fourth, but neither lead lasted long. Brandon Backe pitched reasonably well for 4 2/3rd’s innings, but the roof fell in on Chad Qualls — who was dinked to death in the Cards’ 6 run sixth — and then on Chad Harville, who gave up the Edmonds‘ three run double that put the game away for the Redbirds.
One thing I did not understand about this game is why Manager Garner pitched Backe on three days rest when he could have started Pete Munro tonight and allowed Backe to pitch on his regular rest cycle in Thursday’s Game 2. As noted above, Backe pitched reasonably well, but ran out of gas quickly in the fourth. My sense is that the Stros would have gotten more out of him in the Thursday game.
Oh well. Game 2 is Thursday night as the Stros try to steal one from the Cards in St. Louis. And steal it that will have to do given that Munro is the unlikely starter in this one. Hope that the Stros’ bats keep crankin’ because it is almost certain that the Cardinals’ bats will.

The Stros and the Cards tee it up tonight in Game 1 of the NLCS in St. Louis, and it you go by the statistics from the season to date, the Cards should win in a cakewalk.
However, statistics are merely indicators of probable performance, and the season-to-date statistics fail to take into consideration two key factors. First, although they lagged earlier in the season, the Stros’ statistics over the past two months have been every bit as good as the Cardinals’ statistics during that period. Second, the Stros have been playing “on edge” for the past two months in their unlikely drive for the playoffs while the Cards, who put away the NL Central title for all practical purposes shortly after the All-Star break, have been on cruise control. Some teams find it difficult to regain that competitive edge in a playoff series after a long stint of relatively meaningless games.
So, I look for this series to be closer than most pundits believe, although the gaudy Cardinals runs created against average statistics (“RCAA,” explained here, courtesy of Lee Sinins) this season certainly reflect the fact that the club had the best regular season record in the Major Leagues:
Albert Pujols 75
Jim Edmonds 73
Scott Rolen 57
Larry Walker 12
John Mabry 7
Reggie Sanders 4
Tony Womack 3
Ray Lankford -1
Colin Porter -1
Bo Hart -2
So Taguchi -4
Roger Cedeno -5
Yadier Molina -5
Hector Luna -6
Cody McKay -6
Edgar Renteria -12
Marlon Anderson -14
Mike Matheny -23
To compare, here are the Stros players’ final regular season RCAA:
Lance Berkman 69
Carlos Beltran 46 (28 with the Stros, 18 with the Royals)
Jeff Bagwell 17
Jeff Kent 12
Mike Lamb 11
Craig Biggio 8
Jason Lane 3
Eric Bruntlett 2
Willy Taveras 0
Chris Tremie 0
Jason Alfaro -2
Chris Burke -3
Orlando Palmeiro -4
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -11
Morgan Ensberg -12
Jose Vizcaino -14
Raul Chavez -19
Brad Ausmus -26
The Cardinals’ 152 RCAA was the highest in Major League Baseball this season by over 40 runs, and over 100 runs better than the Stros’ team performance. The Cards’ top three hitters — Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen — were among the top ten hitters in the National League this season, and no other team came close to matching that kind of top hitting performance.
However, that performance is in the past and what’s important is right now, and there appear to be a few kinks in the Cardinals’ machine. Rolen has a gimpy knee that did not respond to rest over the last month of the season, and he is coming off an 0-12 performance in the Cardinals’ divisional series victory over the Dodgers. Accordingly, if Rolen is unable to perform in the NLCS at his performance level for most of the season, the Stros’ hitting lineup actually matches up quite well with that of the Cards — i.e., two top hitters who are slightly better than the Stros’ top hitters (Pujols and Edmonds versus Berkman and Beltran), but the Stros have more above-average hitters than the Cards (Bags, Kent, Bidg and Lamb versus Walker, Mabry and maybe Sanders).
The pitching matchup is similar. Again, the Cardinals’ pitching staff overall had an extraordinary season, garnering a 68 runs saved against average score (“RSAA,” explained here), which is over 20 runs better than the Stros pitching staff’s solid performance. Here are the Cardinals pitchers’ RSAA through the end of the regular season:
Chris Carpenter 14
Steve Kline 13
Julian Tavarez 13
Jason Isringhausen 11
Ray King 11
Jason Marquis 10
Kiko Calero 7
Al Reyes 5
Cal Eldred 3
Randy Flores 3
Cody McKay 1
Josh Pearce 0
Jeff Suppan 0
Woody Williams 0
Rick Ankiel -1
Danny Haren -2
Mike Lincoln -2
Jason Simontacchi -2
Carmen Cali -4
Matt Morris -12
And, for comparison purposes, here are the Stros pitchers’ RSAA:
Roger Clemens 32
Brad Lidge 26
Roy Oswalt 22
Wade Miller 10
Dan Miceli 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Chad Qualls 3
Russ Springer 3
Dan Wheeler 3
Darren Oliver 1
Brandon Backe 0
Mike Gallo -2
Chad Harville -2
David Weathers -2
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -6
Jared Fernandez -6
Pete Munro -9
Carlos Hernandez -10
Brandon Duckworth -11
Tim Redding -15
Again, one can see possible kinks in the Cards’ pitching armor, too. Although they have six pitchers with double digit RSAA’s, the Stros top three pitchers (Clemens, Oswalt and Lidge) have performed signficantly better than the Cards’ top three pitchers, the best of whom (Carpenter) is injured and not pitching. Moreover, the Cards continue to trot out Matt Morris as a starter and he is having a Redding-like horrible season, and even the Cards’ closer Isringhausen has been showing signs of late-season fatigue. Thus, a good case can be made that the Stros’ pitching staff comes into this series in better shape than the Cards’ staff, even with Clemens and Oswalt being relegated to Games 3 and 4. The fact that Lidge comes into the NLCS relatively well-rested is big advantage for the Stros.
So, where does that leave us? Well, the Cards are probably the better team overall, but the Stros are plenty good and playing with boatloads of good karma right now. My sense is that the Cards will prevail in a six or seven game series, but that it would not be shocking if the Stros win the series. Let’s get ready to rumble and hang on for a wild ride!

Carlos Beltran hit two key yaks and then Bidg and Bags keyed a five run outburst in the seventh to put the game away as the Stros beat the Braves 12-3 in the fifth and deciding game of their National League Divisional Series on Monday night at Turner Field in Atlanta.
For the first time in their 43 year existence, the Stros now move on to the next playoff series, which is the National League Championship Series against the Cardinals. The first two games are Wednesday and Thursday nights in St. Louis, and then the next three games will be in Houston at the Juice Box on Saturday through Monday. I expect Pete Munro and Brandon Backe to pitch Games 1 and 2 in St. Louis, so the Stros need to keep their hitting shoes on.
Roy O battled like the gamer he is on three days rest and left the Stros with a 3-2 lead after five innings on the strength of Beltran’s first yak and two runs that were keyed by JK‘s second inning double.
However, this game was won in the sixth inning and the top of the seventh after the Braves had closed to 3-2 in the bottom of the fifth. First, in the top of the sixth, Beltran answered the Braves rally with his second solo yak to extend the Stros lead to 4-2. Then, in the bottom of the sixth, Chad Qualls came back from the trauma of blowing the Game 4 lead and put down the Braves in order for the first time in the game.
In the top of the seventh, Bidg keyed an incredible two out rally with a two strike single to plate a completely juiced Viz from second, who knocked down Estrada, allowing Bidg to race around to third when the throw to the plate got away. Beltran promptly knocked in Bidg for a 6-2 lead, and then Bags lifted the burden of failed playoffs past with a massive two run tater to left to give the Stros an insurmountable 8-2 lead. The Stros tacked on three more in the eighth (including Beltran’s fourth and fifth RBI’s) just to make sure that the Braves knew that their prior playoff dominance of the Stros was over for good. The Stros ended up with 17 hits as they continue their remarkable late season run to the next stage of the playoffs.
I have been a Stros fan for all the time I have lived in Houston, which is over 32 years now, and I have been a season ticket holder for the past 20. I get up on Tuesday mornings at 3 a.m. to help cook for a large Christian men’s breakfast group at my church in The Woodlands, but I found myself watching this game until the very end at almost 11:00 p.m. despite my early wakeup call and the fact that the game was already well in hand. When the final pitch made the win certain, I called my older son at college — who is a lifelong Stros fan and was watching the game just as intently as I was — and we laughed with each other on just how good it felt for Bags, Bidg and the rest of the Stros finally to win a playoff series after we had pulled for them together for so many years.
That one magic, joyous conversation between a father and a son made enduring every disappointment of the Stros’ past failures well worth it.

Former Stros third baseman Ken Caminiti, who was a unanimous pick for the 1996 National League MVP while playing with the Padres, died Sunday at the age of 41 of a heart attack in the Bronx. Caminiti is survived by three daughters from a marriage that ended in divorce several years ago.
Caminiti had a .794 career OPS (on base average + slugging percentage), compared to his league average of .746, and 154 RCAA in 1760 games (RCAA explained here), mostly with the Astros and Padres, from 1987-2001. His best year was a .621 SLG, .408 OBA, 1.028 OPS, and 66 RCAA with the 1996 Padres.
The three-time All-Star led often a troubled life the past few years after retiring from baseball in 2001. Last Tuesday, he admitted in a Houston criminal court that he violated his probation by testing positive for cocaine. State District Judge William Harmon sentenced Caminiti to 180 days in jail for violating his probation, but gave him credit for the 189 days he already served in jail and a treatment facility since he was sentenced to three years probation for a another cocaine arrest in March 2001.
In May 2002, Caminiti generated national media interest when he told Sports Illustrated magazine that he had used steroids during his MVP season and speculated that half of the Major League Baseball players were also using them.
Caminiti was beloved by his teammates for his strong work ethic and willingness to play hurt, but he was a poster child for the professional athlete who knows of no other way to live than to play the game in which they excel. Once Caminiti’s abilities eroded below the Major League level, he became lost and was never able to find his way into a meaningful way of life after baseball. His death will weigh heavily on Bags and Bidg, who played with Cammy for many years in Houston.

The Braves fought back from a 5-2 deficit and J.D. Drew had the game winning hit in the top of the ninth as Atlanta forced a fifth game on Monday at Turner Field by beating the Stros 6-5 on Sunday afternoon in a heart-pounding thriller at the Juice Box. The Braves win broke the Stros’ 19 game winning streak at the Juice Box that had propelled the Stros into this National League Division series.
Craig Biggio’s three-run yak in the second and Roger Clemens gutty pitching performance on three days rest had given the Stros a 5-2 lead going into the sixth inning, but the Stros’ Chad Qualls gave up a massive 3 run tater to Adam Larouche in the sixth that tied the game. The clubs remained knotted through the next three excrutiating innings of wonderful playoff baseball until Drew knocked in the winning run in the ninth.
The Stros placed two men on in both the eighth and ninth innings only to have John Smoltz make two incredible plays to keep the Stros from scoring. In the eighth, with two outs and runners on first and third, Marcus Giles made a great play in the hole between first and second on Orlando Palmeiro‘s grounder and made a perfect off balance throw to Smoltz, who barely beat Palmeiro to first base for the third out. Then, in the ninth, after Berkman‘s clutch single put runners on first and third with one out, Smoltz induced JK to hit into a GIDP that sent the series back to Atlanta for Game 5.
Clemens was running on fumes today as he never could gain a rhythm, giving up two runs on six hits and two walks in his five innings. Still, the Rocket put the Stros in a position to win the game, and that’s all anyone could reasonably ask of a 42 year old man starting his second game in a week while recovering from a stomach virus. The key to this game turned out to be the Braves’ superior depth in the bullpen, as that group pitched six scoreless innings after the Stros’ five run second inning to give the Braves a chance to come back.
Despite the trauma of the loss to Stros’ fans, the Stros actually are in pretty good shape going into Game Five tomorrow in Atlanta. Roy O is ready to start and Lidge was limited to seven pitches in Sunday’s game, so he should be reasonably fresh, too. The Braves counter with Jaret Wright, who was no mystery for the Stros hitters in Game 1 of the series, and their bullpen has been stretched in both of the last two games. So, keep the faith, Stros fans, the Stros still have a good chance to pull this one out.

Brandon Backe pitched the best six innings of his life and the Stros plated five runs with two outs as they pulled to within one game of advancing to the National League Championship Series with an 8-5 win over the Braves on Saturday afternoon in front of a deafening sellout Juice Box crowd. The win was the Stros 19th straight at the Juice Box, and the club’s 38th win in their last 49 games.
Based on the outcome of the other two division series games on Saturday, the Stros and Braves will play on Sunday at either noon or 6:30 p.m. The Rocket will pitch for the Stros on three day’s against the Braves Russ Ortiz.
Backe continued to show the same extraordinary poise that he displayed when he stepped in for the ailing Clemens last Sunday to lead the Stros to their Wild Card playoff clinching win in the regular-season finale. In Saturday’s game, Backe worked his way out of a bases-loaded jam in the second by getting the third out with a 94-mph heater, and retired the final seven batters he faced. Backe’s final numbers were solid — two runs, five hits, five strikeouts and two walks in six innings.
Carlos Beltran‘s two run yak got the Stros started in the third inning, and then the rest of the Stros put it away with five runs in the fifth and sixth innings as Jeff Kent, Lance Berkman, and Morgan Ensberg all had key hits in the rallies. But for a couple of baserunning errors, the Stros would likely have had a couple of more runs, and the final score was closer than the game really was. The Braves’ Andruw Jones cranked a three run tater off of hard luck Russ Springer in the eighth to bring the Braves within three runs after the Stros gave the Braves an extra out in that inning by failing to catch J.D. Drew‘s popup that hit one of the Juice Box roof supports. Brad Lidge pitched a dominating ninth to nail down the victory.
Finally, the Juice Box crowd was tuned into every pitch, and almost blew the roof off the place when Lidge struck out the final hitter. The Juice Box should be totally juiced when Clemens takes the mound on Sunday to try and bring Houston its first win in a Major League Baseball playoff series. Tune in and hang on for a wild ride!

The Braves jailbird-to-be Rafeal Furcal hit a two-out, two-run walkoff homer in the 11th inning off of Dan Miceli that propelled the Braves to a 4-2 victory over the Stros Thursday afternoon at Turner Field in Atlanta. The Braves’ win tied their NL playoff series with the Stros at one game each.
Furcal was in court just hours before Game 1 of the series where he was sentenced to 21 days in jail and 28 days in a treatment center for violating probation with his second drunken-driving arrest in four years. However, the judge — obviously a Braves fan — put the sentence off until the day after the season ends.
With the Stros on the verge of taking a commanding lead, manager Phil Garner brought closer Brad Lidge into the game in the seventh inning when the Stros had a 2-1 lead, but the Braves rallied to force extra innings. The Braves outhit the Stros 14-4 and held the Stros without a hit for the final 5 1/3 innings.
Realizing the importance of the game, the Braves kept closer John Smoltz on the mound for three innings, which was his longest outing since September 2001. Similarly, Lidge went 2 2/3 innings, which was his longest outing of the season.
Both starters for the respective teams pitched well. Roy O gave up eight hits and a run in 6 2/3 innings while Mike Hampton gave up just four hits in 6 1/3 innings, including solo yaks to Bags and Raul Chavez. Hampton left in the seventh because of tightness in his left forearm, but the injury is not believed to be serious.
The series now moves to the Juice Box on Saturday where the Stros have won 18 straight games with the Stros’ Brandon Backe going up against the Braves’ John Thomson. Game time has been moved to noon on Saturday.

The Stros glided into Atlanta and easily took the first game of their National League Divisional Series with the Braves 9-3 behind Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, Jason Lane, and Brad Ausmus‘ yaks and the gutty pitching performance of Roger Clemens.
The Stros won this one with a solid hitting display as they cranked out nine hits in addition to the four above-mentioned taters, including run scoring doubles by Bags and JK. A four run uprising in the third and then three more runs in the fifth put this one away.
Unfortunately, the Stros’ strong hitting display prompted Braves reliever Juan Cruz to nail Beltran in the ribs with a pitch in the seventh, and Lane replaced Beltran in the field for the final two innings. Post-game x-rays on Beltran’s ribs were negative, but the contusion restricted the his arm’s range of motion, so it is unclear whether he will be able to play in today’s game. If Beltran cannot play today, Lane would replace him in the lineup.
Inasmuch as Cruz clearly was throwing at Beltran on purpose (although the umps did not issue any warnings), the bottom half of the frame provided one of the comic moments of the season. With two outs and nobody on, the Braves’ centerfielder Andruw Jones came to the plate against Clemens, who is notorious for being “old school” with regard to retribution for one of his teammates being hit by a pitch on purpose. Inasmuch as Jones is the Braves’ centerfielder and Beltran is the Stros’ centerfield, there is logic in a baseball sense for Clemens to throw at Jones in response to Cruz throwing at Beltran.
At any rate, Clemens worked the count to two strikes against a very antsy Jones. Clemens then started a two strike curveball at Jones that broke over the plate but in the dirt. Jones took the worst swing at the pitch that I’ve seen since I coached my last T-Ball game in striking out, and looked like the most relieved person in the ballpark as he tossed his bat, grabbed his glove and retreated to the relative safety of centerfield.
According to the ESPN reporter near the Stros’ dugout, Clemens’ directive to his teammates as he left the dugout for the clubhouse after finishing seven innings: “Keep kickin’ their ass.”
Clemens showed the effects of the stomach virus that knocked him out of the final game of the regular season. He walked six, which is the most he has given up in a game in over five years. However, Clemens was the quintessential gamer, stranding nine Braves runners in the first four innings. The Rocket lasted seven innings, throwing 117 pitches while giving up two earned runs and striking out seven.
The Stros now hand the ball to Roy O in Game 2 against former Stro Mike Hampton, who has been an average National League pitcher this season. However, Hampton is a gamer just like Clemens and Oswalt, so do not expect another easy game like today’s. But it sure would be nice to steal two games in Atlanta before the series returns to the Juice Box on Saturday afternoon.

The media is all aflutter with the fact that the Stros have never beaten the Braves in three previous playoffs (in 1997, 1999, and 2001), but that fact is irrelevant to the current series. Only five of the Stros’ 25 man roster were even on the 2001 club (Bags, Bidg, Ausmus, Viz, and Berkman) and the same roster turnover is true for the Braves. So, these are different teams at a different time, and what has occurred in the past is largely just the stuff of baseball myths that media types enjoy discussing while trying to figure out something perceptive to say.
In its essence, baseball is a simple game. While at bat, a club tries to score more runs than its opposition. While in the field, the club tries to get three outs each inning before the opposition scores as many runs as the club has scored. Thus, creating runs while hitting, and saving runs while pitching and playing defense, are the most important indicators of success in baseball. That’s why I like the statistics of runs created against average (“RCAA”) and runs saved against average (“RSAA” and RCAA are explained here) — they are solid reflections of how a player and a team stacks up against an average player and an average team in their league at any particular point in time.
Based on RCAA and RSAA, the Braves should beat the Stros in this series, but not by much. Moreover, based on RCAA and RSAA, the Cubs and the Giants should have beaten out the Stros for the Wild Card Playoff spot, so the statistics are simply indicators of probable performance, not dispositive predictive tools. The nature of human performance generally and the charm of baseball in particular is the unpredictability of it all.
Since my most recent periodic review of the Stros hitters’ RCAA and the pitchers’ RSAA, the Stros overtook both the Giants and the Cubs in the NL Wild Card playoff race, and the clubs’ final RCAA and RSAA bear out what happened. Here are the Stros hitters’ final RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins, through the end of the regular season:
Lance Berkman 69
Carlos Beltran 46 (28 with the Stros, 18 with the Royals)
Jeff Bagwell 17
Jeff Kent 12
Mike Lamb 11
Craig Biggio 8
Jason Lane 3
Eric Bruntlett 2
Willy Taveras 0
Chris Tremie 0
Jason Alfaro -2
Chris Burke -3
Orlando Palmeiro -4
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -11
Morgan Ensberg -12
Jose Vizcaino -14
Raul Chavez -19
Brad Ausmus -26
After falling back to ninth a week before the end of the regular season, the Stros’ seven game winning streak to close out the season was bolstered by another surge in hitting that resulted in the Stros finishing seventh out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA (50), while the Braves finished fifth (60 RCAA). Frankly, that means the teams are about equal in hitting, as the Stros RCAA would be 8 points higher than the Braves had Beltran played with the club the entire season.
Insmuch as the Stros were at 17 RCAA a week ago, their hitting over the last week of the season was flat remarkable. Berkman and Beltran concluded monster years, and Bags and Bidg rebounded nicely after their lull following the earlier 12 game winning streak. Moreover, after being essentially an average National League hitter for the entire season, Jeff Kent went nuclear in the last week of the season and improved his RCAA from 1 to 12. Jason Lane also improved notably over that time, raising his -2 RCAA to a plus 3 by the end of regular season.
Now, here are the Braves’ individual RCAA figures:
J.D. Drew 66
Eli Marrero 14
Marcus Giles 13
Chipper Jones 11
Johnny Estrada 9
Julio Franco 6
Charles Thomas 5
Adam LaRoche 2
Rafael Furcal 1
Damon Hollins 1
Andruw Jones 0
Dewayne Wise -5
Wilson Betemit -6
Nick Green -8
Jesse Garcia -9
Mike Hessman -9
Eddie Perez -11
Mark DeRosa -20
In effect, the Braves have an outstanding hitter in Drew, who is almost equal to Berkman, but then a big dropoff to their second best hitter — there is clearly no Beltran-caliber second best hitter on the Braves. That is an advantage for the Stros, but it is offset by the fact that the Stros are pulled down by the amount of play that deficient hitters Ausmus, Chavez, Viz, and Ensberg receive. Stros manager Phil Garner would be well-advised to play the much more productive Lamb during the playoffs over Ensberg.
The big difference in the Braves and the Stros is in pitching, where the Braves are stronger even though the Stros’ pitching staff is quite good. Here are the Stros pitchers’ RSAA:
Roger Clemens 32
Brad Lidge 26
Roy Oswalt 22
Wade Miller 10
Dan Miceli 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Chad Qualls 3
Russ Springer 3
Dan Wheeler 3
Darren Oliver 1
Brandon Backe 0
Mike Gallo -2
Chad Harville -2
David Weathers -2
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -6
Jared Fernandez -6
Pete Munro -9
Carlos Hernandez -10
Brandon Duckworth -11
Tim Redding -15
The Stros are fourth among the 16 National League teams with a team RSAA of 46, which is the position that the Stros’ staff has been for most of the second half of the season. On the other hand, the Braves staff’s RSAA is a stout 89, which is second only to the Cubs’ staff that measured a heady 121 on the season (how again did the Cubs blow their lead in the Wild Card Playoff race?).
Clemens, Lidge and Oswalt are three of the best pitchers in baseball, and that’s a good nucleus for a short series. Miceli has bounced back well from his three week stint on the DL with pink eye, but beyond those four pitchers, the Stros are relying on a slew of young and not so young pitchers who are average or barely above average. Inasmuch as all of those pitchers seem to be pitching well right now (particularly the irrepressible Backe), the Stros may be able to bob and weave through a five game series with this bunch. However, in the longer seven game series in the LCS and the World Series, that lack of quality depth might get exposed. Unless, of course, these fellas simply step up on this national stage and continue to improve as they have over the past couple of weeks. I’m through doubting this bunch of competitors.
Here are the Braves pitchers’ individual RSAA:
Jaret Wright 21
Antonio Alfonseca 14
John Smoltz 14
Horacio Ramirez 13
John Thomson 13
Juan Cruz 12
Kevin Gryboski 8
Paul Byrd 5
Russ Ortiz 4
Roman Colon 2
Chris Reitsma 2
Tom Martin 1
Dan Meyer 1
Tim Drew 0
Mike Hampton 0
Sam McConnell 0
C.J. Nitkowski 0
Armando Almanza -2
Will Cunnane -4
Jose Capellan -6
Travis Smith -9
Jaret Wright, the Braves first game pitcher against Clemens, has pitched basically as well as Oswalt this season, so he is darn good pitcher. But interestingly, the rest of the Braves staff is essentially a bunch of well above-average and just above average pitchers, but none which had the seasons of Clemens, Lidge or Oswalt. Thus, the depth of the Braves’ pitching gives them an advantage, but the starting pitching matchups for the first three games favor the Stros:
Game One: Clemens (32 RSAA) v. Wright (21 RSAA)
Game Two: Roy O (22 RSAA) v. Mike Hampton (0 RSAA)
Game Three: Brandon Backe (0 RSAA) v. John Thomson (13 RSAA)
So, despite the Braves greater depth in quality pitching, this is really a very even series based upon the production of the respective teams’ players at this time. That’s why small adjustments such as playing Lamb over Ensberg and perhaps giving the emerging Lane some swings for Bidg could be the difference between winning and losing this series. Here’s hoping that Manager Garner can continue to pull the right strings that he so effectively selected during the drive for the Wild Card playoff spot.
Now, here are some other observations on the final statistics from the regular season:

Although the Cubs pitching was the best in the National League by far, their hitting went into the tank. As the Stros climbed from an RCAA of 18 to 50 in the last week of the season, the Cubs’ RCAA fell from 17 to 2 during the same week. Say bye-bye, Sammy!

Although the Giants’ 90 RCAA was stout and second best in the league behind the Cards’ astronomical 152, they lost the Wild Card Playoff race because of their lack of balance. The Giants’ pitching staff’s RSAA was only 16. And even the Giants’ RCAA is somewhat deceptive because of how top-loaded it is — the incredible Barry Bonds had a league-leading RCAA of 152 alone!

And let’s take a look at the key players that the Stros traded away either before or during this season:

Billy Wagner: 10 RSAA or slightly better than Dan Miceli.

Octavio Dotel: 3 RSAA or about like Chad Qualls.

Richard Hidalgo: -20 RCAA or worse then Raul Chavez (19). Ugh!

John Buck: -9 RCAA or about like Adam Everett.

Inasmuch as the Stros essentially got Beltran in return for Dotel and Buck, even a numbskull could evaluate that as a good trade. However, GM Gerry Hunsicker and Stros’ owner Drayton McLane both came under severe media criticism for the Wagner and Hidalgo trades, which got rid of huge salaries on players of declining production. Those critical media types owe Messrs. McLane and Hunsicker an apology, but I doubt that they will even get an objective evaluation of the trades in the mainstream media, much less an apology. So it goes.

The Stros charged into the playoffs on Sunday afternoon with their 18th consecutive home victory by beating the Colorado Rockies 5-3 to win the National League WildCard playoff spot.
The win capped an incredible late season turnaround for the Stros, who were a season-worst 56-60 on Aug. 14. From that point on, the Stros won 36 out of their next 46 games, which included a 12 game winning streak. They then closed the season out in a tight race with the Giants and Cubs by winning nine out of their last 10 and their final seven straight. The Stros now go to Atlanta for Game One of the National League Division Series on Wednesday against the Braves, who have eliminated Houston three times in the past seven postseasons. The first playoff game in Houston will be next Saturday, October 9.
Brandon Backe filled in admirably on Sunday for the ailing Roger Clemens, who came down with a stomach virus last night and could not pitch today as expected. Backe — who slept in today thinking that Clemens was starting and thus, did not learn that he was starting until a couple of hours before game time — pitched five strong innings and drove in the Stros’ first two runs.
After closer Brad Lidge‘s final pitch in the ninth, the Stros ran out of the dugout to meet near the mound for hugs and high-fives while red and white confetti rained down on the fans from the Juice Box roof.
Assuming he recovers from his stomach virus, Clemens is scheduled to pitch game one of the division series against the Braves, with Roy O slated to start game two. I will break down the matchup between the Stros and the Braves in a post in the next day or so.