The Stros and the Cards tee it up tonight in Game 1 of the NLCS in St. Louis, and it you go by the statistics from the season to date, the Cards should win in a cakewalk.
However, statistics are merely indicators of probable performance, and the season-to-date statistics fail to take into consideration two key factors. First, although they lagged earlier in the season, the Stros’ statistics over the past two months have been every bit as good as the Cardinals’ statistics during that period. Second, the Stros have been playing “on edge” for the past two months in their unlikely drive for the playoffs while the Cards, who put away the NL Central title for all practical purposes shortly after the All-Star break, have been on cruise control. Some teams find it difficult to regain that competitive edge in a playoff series after a long stint of relatively meaningless games.
So, I look for this series to be closer than most pundits believe, although the gaudy Cardinals runs created against average statistics (“RCAA,” explained here, courtesy of Lee Sinins) this season certainly reflect the fact that the club had the best regular season record in the Major Leagues:
Albert Pujols 75
Jim Edmonds 73
Scott Rolen 57
Larry Walker 12
John Mabry 7
Reggie Sanders 4
Tony Womack 3
Ray Lankford -1
Colin Porter -1
Bo Hart -2
So Taguchi -4
Roger Cedeno -5
Yadier Molina -5
Hector Luna -6
Cody McKay -6
Edgar Renteria -12
Marlon Anderson -14
Mike Matheny -23
To compare, here are the Stros players’ final regular season RCAA:
Lance Berkman 69
Carlos Beltran 46 (28 with the Stros, 18 with the Royals)
Jeff Bagwell 17
Jeff Kent 12
Mike Lamb 11
Craig Biggio 8
Jason Lane 3
Eric Bruntlett 2
Willy Taveras 0
Chris Tremie 0
Jason Alfaro -2
Chris Burke -3
Orlando Palmeiro -4
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -11
Morgan Ensberg -12
Jose Vizcaino -14
Raul Chavez -19
Brad Ausmus -26
The Cardinals’ 152 RCAA was the highest in Major League Baseball this season by over 40 runs, and over 100 runs better than the Stros’ team performance. The Cards’ top three hitters — Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen — were among the top ten hitters in the National League this season, and no other team came close to matching that kind of top hitting performance.
However, that performance is in the past and what’s important is right now, and there appear to be a few kinks in the Cardinals’ machine. Rolen has a gimpy knee that did not respond to rest over the last month of the season, and he is coming off an 0-12 performance in the Cardinals’ divisional series victory over the Dodgers. Accordingly, if Rolen is unable to perform in the NLCS at his performance level for most of the season, the Stros’ hitting lineup actually matches up quite well with that of the Cards — i.e., two top hitters who are slightly better than the Stros’ top hitters (Pujols and Edmonds versus Berkman and Beltran), but the Stros have more above-average hitters than the Cards (Bags, Kent, Bidg and Lamb versus Walker, Mabry and maybe Sanders).
The pitching matchup is similar. Again, the Cardinals’ pitching staff overall had an extraordinary season, garnering a 68 runs saved against average score (“RSAA,” explained here), which is over 20 runs better than the Stros pitching staff’s solid performance. Here are the Cardinals pitchers’ RSAA through the end of the regular season:
Chris Carpenter 14
Steve Kline 13
Julian Tavarez 13
Jason Isringhausen 11
Ray King 11
Jason Marquis 10
Kiko Calero 7
Al Reyes 5
Cal Eldred 3
Randy Flores 3
Cody McKay 1
Josh Pearce 0
Jeff Suppan 0
Woody Williams 0
Rick Ankiel -1
Danny Haren -2
Mike Lincoln -2
Jason Simontacchi -2
Carmen Cali -4
Matt Morris -12
And, for comparison purposes, here are the Stros pitchers’ RSAA:
Roger Clemens 32
Brad Lidge 26
Roy Oswalt 22
Wade Miller 10
Dan Miceli 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Chad Qualls 3
Russ Springer 3
Dan Wheeler 3
Darren Oliver 1
Brandon Backe 0
Mike Gallo -2
Chad Harville -2
David Weathers -2
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -6
Jared Fernandez -6
Pete Munro -9
Carlos Hernandez -10
Brandon Duckworth -11
Tim Redding -15
Again, one can see possible kinks in the Cards’ pitching armor, too. Although they have six pitchers with double digit RSAA’s, the Stros top three pitchers (Clemens, Oswalt and Lidge) have performed signficantly better than the Cards’ top three pitchers, the best of whom (Carpenter) is injured and not pitching. Moreover, the Cards continue to trot out Matt Morris as a starter and he is having a Redding-like horrible season, and even the Cards’ closer Isringhausen has been showing signs of late-season fatigue. Thus, a good case can be made that the Stros’ pitching staff comes into this series in better shape than the Cards’ staff, even with Clemens and Oswalt being relegated to Games 3 and 4. The fact that Lidge comes into the NLCS relatively well-rested is big advantage for the Stros.
So, where does that leave us? Well, the Cards are probably the better team overall, but the Stros are plenty good and playing with boatloads of good karma right now. My sense is that the Cards will prevail in a six or seven game series, but that it would not be shocking if the Stros win the series. Let’s get ready to rumble and hang on for a wild ride!