Since last checking in on the Stros (60-51), the club has cooled off a bit, losing four of their last seven games. However, the Stros come home for their longest homestand of the season on the uptick, as Jason Lane‘s (-3 RCAA/.300 OBP/.479 SLG/.779 OPS) three run yak broke open a close game and notched a well-deserved 8-1 win for the Rocket over the Giants (48-62).
The Stros continue to lead in the race for the NL Wild Card playoff spot, and the competition in that race increasingly looks like it will come out of the NL East where the Phillies (58-54), Mets (57-54) and Marlins (57-52) all appear primed to remain in the race. My sense is that the Nationals (58-53) will continue to fade and will be out of the race by Labor Day. Both the Cubs (54-56) and the Brewers (56-56) should both be in the race. However, just like the 2004 season, it appears that Manager Dusty Baker is mismanaging the Cubs sufficiently to keep that club out of the race, and the Brew Crew — although the most balanced club in the NL except for the Cardinals — just can’t seem to put the long winning streak together that is necessary to get a leg up in the race for the Wild Card playoff spot.

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The Stros’ Roger Clemens — certainly one of the three greatest pitchers in Major League Baseball history — turned 43 yesterday. His dominating performance this season at that advanced age for baseball pitchers prompted this Alan Schwarz/ESPN.com article on how medical advances made Clemens’ long career possible and saved Clemens from suffering the same fate as one-season wonders from previous eras, such as Mark Fidrych:

[F]or most of baseball history, a “sore arm” was like a malevolent genie who visited pitchers in the night, entered their joints and corroded their futures from the inside with no explanation or recourse. Johnny Beazley, Karl Spooner, Mark Fidrych . . . they all faded into anonymity before medicine could fix them, medicine we now take for granted. When you consider that almost every top modern pitcher has gone under the knife at some point — heck, some throw harder after ligament-transplant surgery — you realize what a lucky era we’re in.
So lucky that most people forget that Roger Clemens could have been one of those pitchers we never heard from again. It was 20 years ago that he and his throbbing shoulder lay on the operating table — before any 20-strikeout games, before any Cy Young awards and before arthroscopy was a sure thing. Before Dr. James Andrews was sure he could fix him.

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Last season, after falling to a season-worst 56-60 record on August 14th, the Stros won 36 out of their next 46 games, a run that included 12 and seven game winning streaks, the latter of which ended the regular season and clinched the National League Wild Card playoff spot. That club went on to get within a few outs of the World Series.
With another win in last night’s game, this Stros club — after falling to a season-worst 15-30 record on May 24th — has gone 41-17, won six games in a row and won 12 of their last 13. The Stros now lead in the National League Wild Card race by one game and are in second place in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Cards. Given the way the NL Central race has gone the past couple of seasons, that equates to a pennant race.
Given this club’s weak hitting, the Stros will not be able to sustain this level of play for the remainder of the season. But make no mistake about it, this has been an incredible run, even more remarkable than last season’s.

In the Stros romp over the Phillies last night, Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman hit back-to-back home runs twice, once in the first inning and then again in the third. By the way, in case you hadn’t noticed, the Stros are 52-47, in 2nd place in the NL Central 10 1/2 games back of St. Louis, only 3 games behind in the Wild Card race, and have won 8 out of their last 10 games.

Bidg and Berkman are — along with injured teammate, Jeff Bagwell — among a small group of Stros players who are legitimate candidates for Baseball’s Hall of Fame. The rare feat of homering back-to-back twice in one game gives me an opportunity to pass along the following career and recent season statistics for both Bidg and Berkman:

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When journeyman Eric Bruntlett (-5 RCAA/.262 OBP/.333 SLG./.595 OPS) jacks a three run yak in the 14th inning to pull out a Sunday afternoon win and finish off a 7-4 roadie, you know it’s time to check in on the Stros (51-47).
Somehow, the Stros find themselves only three and a half games behind the Nationals (55-44) for the lead for the NL Wild Card Playoff spot, but my sense is that the Nationals are sinking and will not be in contention any longer by Labor Day. Accordingly, it’s looking as if the Stros’ competition for the Wild Card spot is going to be the NL East teams other than the Nationals — the Braves (55-44), Phillies (52-47), Mets (51-47) and Marlins (49-47) — and the Cubs (49-48) in the NL Central.

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What a difference a year makes.
Last year at this time, this post about the Stros reflected the overwhelming pessimism that surrounded the team — the hitting was lousy and the pitching staff was reeling from the loss of Wade Miller and the sore elbow of Andy Pettitte. Of course, that club turned things around dramatically during the last third of the season to take the Wildcard playoff spot and come within a game of the World Series.
On the other hand, this year, the Stros strutted into the All-Star Break on a 29-13 run, the Rocket and Roy O are the top two pitchers in the league, 3B Morgan Ensberg is having a career year, Bidg is performing remarkably, and Berkman is hitting his stride after returning late from off-season knee surgery. As opposed to last season, the overall feeling is one of sunny optimism.
The funny thing about the foregoing is that this season’s Stros team (44-43) has lost only one less game than last season’s club (44-44) at this time. Expectations certainly color attitudes toward performance, don’t they?

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This Seattlepi.com story reports that the Stros (34-40) are considering a trade of RHP Brandon Backe (-8 RSAA/5.31 ERA) for Seattle Mariners (33-41) OF Randy Winn (4 RCAA/.283 AVE/.354 OBP/.384 SLG).
I’m not wild about this proposed deal, but it’s certainly not a disaster. Despite his nice run at the end of last season, Backe is still a below average National League pitcher whose value may be at its peak right now. The switch-hitting Winn is no savior, either, but he is similar to Orlando Palmeiro (3/.318/.379/.471), which is not bad, and is a definite upgrade over Chris Burke (-12/.220/.269/.285) in left field. I’d rather have Austin Kearns (-4/.224/.306/.394) and take on the risk that he could turn his career around, but it takes two to tango and the Reds have not shown any inclination to date to dangle Kearns in a trade with the Stros. As noted here, the Stros need to take major steps in improving almost every non-pitching position on the team, and acquiring Winn would be a small step in the right direction.

My son Cody and I attended the Stros‘ (33-40) Sunday afternoon game against the Rangers (38-35) and enjoyed the 10-inning 3-2 win behind the solid pitching of Andy Pettitte and the game-winning single of 3B Morgan Ensberg. The Stros have now won 13 of their last 20 games, which has generated all sorts of speculation on some local sports talk radio shows and in the Chronicle sports section that this club actually has a chance to make a playoff run.
Well, despite that optimism, this Stros club remains a poor hitting team that will struggle to win as many games as it loses, and likely will not win a playoff spot this season absent a major trade soon for at least one very good hitter or more likely two above-average hitters. Through 73 games (45% of the season), the Stros have scored 67 fewer runs than an average hitting National League club would have scored in an equivalent number of games (“RCAA” explained here). Only one of the other 29 MLB clubs — the woeful Rockies (24-48) has a worse team RCAA than the Stros. Only three regular players (Berkman 2 RCAA/.265 AVE/.369 OBP/.411 SLG; Ensberg 13/.271/.377/.547; and Bidg 3/.273/.333/.465) have created more runs than an average National League hitter and, beyond Berkman at 1B and Ensberg at 3B, every other non-pitching position on the club is in need of an upgrade.

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