What a difference a year makes.
Last year at this time, this post about the Stros reflected the overwhelming pessimism that surrounded the team — the hitting was lousy and the pitching staff was reeling from the loss of Wade Miller and the sore elbow of Andy Pettitte. Of course, that club turned things around dramatically during the last third of the season to take the Wildcard playoff spot and come within a game of the World Series.
On the other hand, this year, the Stros strutted into the All-Star Break on a 29-13 run, the Rocket and Roy O are the top two pitchers in the league, 3B Morgan Ensberg is having a career year, Bidg is performing remarkably, and Berkman is hitting his stride after returning late from off-season knee surgery. As opposed to last season, the overall feeling is one of sunny optimism.
The funny thing about the foregoing is that this season’s Stros team (44-43) has lost only one less game than last season’s club (44-44) at this time. Expectations certainly color attitudes toward performance, don’t they?

Interestingly, the Stros’ first half performance last season and this season demonstrates the underlying value of my favorite baseball statistics — runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) and runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) — as a tool to reflect and predict performance. By adding team RCAA and RSAA together, the resulting sum gives you a useful statistic to compare a club’s performance against that of its competitors — that is, the number of runs a club’s hitters have created as compared against an average National League team and the number of runs a club’s pitchers have saved as compared against an average National League team.
At this time last season, that Stros club had a net RCAA/RSAA number of 14 (27 RSAA/-13 RCAA), and this season’s club has a net RCAA/RSAA number of 8 (36 RSAA/-28 RCAA). A precisely average National League club would have an RSAA/RCAA figure of exactly zero. Thus, given those slightly above-average overall performances, the fact that both Stros teams had a slightly above average record of about .500 through the first half of their seasons is right on par with their performance relative to the rest of the league.
By the way, if you are wondering whether you should give in to the notion that this season’s Stros club is a serious playoff contender, please note that last season’s club — that just barely captured the Wildcard playoff spot after an incredible 36-10 burst to close the season — ended the season with a 96 net RCAA/RSAA number. Accordingly, this Stros club would have to show a similar level of improvement in the second half to contend seriously for the Wildcard playoff spot.
At any rate, the Stros recent surge has been the result of better hitting and continued solid pitching. Here are the Stros’ RCAA as of the All-Star Break, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 26
Craig Biggio 13
Lance Berkman 11
Orlando Palmeiro 4
Jeff Bagwell 1
Eric Bruntlett -3
Humberto Quintero -3
Willy Taveras -3
Luke Scott -4
Todd Self -4
Jose Vizcaino -5
Jason Lane -7
Adam Everett -8
Raul Chavez -10
Mike Lamb -11
Brad Ausmus -12
Chris Burke -13
Since June 25, the Stros have raised their team RCAA from -67 to -28, which is 13th among the 16 National League teams. Ensberg has been unconcious recently, but expect him to cool off during the second half to the 15-20 RCAA level. Similarly, Bidg is an incredible 39 year old, but the dog days of summer will likely taper his RCAA a bit as the season wears on.
On the other hand, Berkman’s RCAA will continue to increase in the second half and likely will more than offset any decline in Ensberg and Bidg’s numbers. Unfortunately, looking at the remainder of the Stros’ hitters, it does not appear any of the others are likely candidates for a big increase in RCAA. The one possible exception is RF Jason Lane, who has put up decent power numbers during the first half despite showing abysmal plate discipline, which is reflected in his far below average on-base percentage.
Thus, inasmuch as the Stros have no good power hitting prospects in the upper tier of their minor league system, this Stros club is not likely to do much better than their current .500 record the rest of this season unless the club can acquire at least one top notch power hitter via a trade. The Stros have some mediocre young talent at the MLB level that might be marginally attractive for trade purposes (Burke and Backe come to mind) and the club has about a half dozen number of good young pitchers in their minor league system that they can use as trade bait. However, General Manager Tim Purpura‘s background is in player development and it is doubtful that he would offer either of the Stros’ top minor league pitchers — RHP Fernando Nieve (AAA Round Rock) or Troy Patton (high A Salem)– in a trade unless it would be for an Adam Dunn-rype quality hitter. So, even though trading for a slugger is really the only way that the Stros are likely to contend for another Wildcard playoff spot this season, it does not appear that the Stros are likely to give up what it would take to make such a trade before the trading deadline at the end of this month.
As noted, the Stros pitching continues to be superb. The following are the Stros’ pitchers RSAA as of the All-Star Break:
Roger Clemens 38
Roy Oswalt 29
Andy Pettitte 15
Dan Wheeler 11
Brad Lidge 8
Chad Qualls 2
Mike Gallo 0
Mike Burns -1
Russ Springer -4
John Franco -5
Chad Harville -5
Brandon Backe -9
Brandon Duckworth -12
Ezequiel Astacio -15
Wandy Rodriguez -16
The Stros team RSAA of 36 remains fourth in the National League. The Rocket and Roy O have been spectacular, and Pettitte, Dan Wheeler and Lidge have been very good. However, with Pettitte and Lidge nursing recent arm problems, and the fourth and fifth starter positions remaining shaky (a -52 RSAA generated from those two slots!), there are definitely some signs that the pitching could erode a bit during the second half. My sense is that top pitching prospect Nieve will make his way to Houston from AAA Round Rock sometime in the next couple of months.
The Stros start the second half with a 10 game roadie against the Cards (56-32), Pirates (39-48) and surprising Nationals (52-36), then return home next week for a seven game homestand against the Phillies (45-44) and the Mets (44-44).