Since last checking in on the Stros (60-51), the club has cooled off a bit, losing four of their last seven games. However, the Stros come home for their longest homestand of the season on the uptick, as Jason Lane‘s (-3 RCAA/.300 OBP/.479 SLG/.779 OPS) three run yak broke open a close game and notched a well-deserved 8-1 win for the Rocket over the Giants (48-62).
The Stros continue to lead in the race for the NL Wild Card playoff spot, and the competition in that race increasingly looks like it will come out of the NL East where the Phillies (58-54), Mets (57-54) and Marlins (57-52) all appear primed to remain in the race. My sense is that the Nationals (58-53) will continue to fade and will be out of the race by Labor Day. Both the Cubs (54-56) and the Brewers (56-56) should both be in the race. However, just like the 2004 season, it appears that Manager Dusty Baker is mismanaging the Cubs sufficiently to keep that club out of the race, and the Brew Crew — although the most balanced club in the NL except for the Cardinals — just can’t seem to put the long winning streak together that is necessary to get a leg up in the race for the Wild Card playoff spot.

Inasmuch as combining each club’s runs created against average (“RCAA”, explained here) and its runs saved against average (“RSAA”, explained here) is a good measure of each club’s strength relative to the rest of the league, here is how the above-named clubs involved in the Wild Card race stacks up:
Marlins 75 RCAA/-13 RSAA = 62
Brewers 48/16 = 64
Stros -27/72 = 45
Mets 10/27 = 37
Cubs 34/-9 = 25
Phillies -36/58 = 22
Nationals -24/24 = 0
Thus, the Marlins remain the Stros strongest competition, but their pitching has been so below average this season that the club’s strong hitting has simply not been able to carry the club through a long winning streak. Somewhat surprisingly, the Mets are a well-balanced competition and Carlos Beltran (-1/321/.437/.758) appears finally to be coming around, so keep an eye on that club. My sense is that the Phillies do not have enough firepower to hang in the race, but they have a similar makeup to the Stros (i.e., strong pitching, weak hitting), so who knows?
Here are the Stros hitters’ individual RCAA through Saturday’s games, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 32
Lance Berkman 20
Craig Biggio 11
Orlando Palmeiro 10
Jeff Bagwell 1
Eric Bruntlett -3
Jason Lane -3
Luke Scott -4
Todd Self -4
Humberto Quintero -5
Jose Vizcaino -5
Raul Chavez -10
Willy Taveras -10
Mike Lamb -11
Adam Everett -13
Chris Burke -16
Brad Ausmus -17
The Stros team RCAA of -27 remains 11th among the 16 National League clubs. The Stros hitters continue to be well under average as a group, although Ensberg (32/.385/.585/.971), Berkman (20/.407/.502/.909), Bidg (11/.336 /.478/.814), and Palmerio (10/380/.503/.883) continue to highly productive, and Lane has been showing steady improvement over the past month. On the downside, almost every other hitter on the club is terrible, and rookie starting outfielders Taveras (-10/.325/.353/.678) and Burke (-16/.291/.303/.594) have become big drags on the lineup. There is no good reason to play either Taveras or Burke in place of Palmeiro or Lane during a playoff race.
Meanwhile, here are the Stros pitchers’ individual RSAA through Saturday’s games:
Roger Clemens 46
Roy Oswalt 34
Andy Pettitte 26
Dan Wheeler 14
Brad Lidge 9
Mike Gallo 2
Chad Qualls 2
Mike Burns 1
Chad Harville -2
John Franco -5
Russ Springer -8
Ezequiel Astacio -10
Brandon Backe -10
Brandon Duckworth -12
Wandy Rodriguez -15
The Stros team RSAA of 72 is 2nd among the 16 National League teams. Clemens (1st in NL RSAA), Oswalt (3rd in NL RSAA), and Pettitte (tied for 5th in NL RSAA) remain the strongest three starting pitchers on one team in MLB, while Lidge and Wheeler are one of the strongest closing duos in the National League. Even Astacio has looked like a real MLB pitcher during his past three outings.
By the way, with Sunday’s performance, Clemens set the Stros record for single season RSAA:
1 Roger Clemens 2005/ 49
2 Mike Scott 1986/ 47
3 Larry Dierker 1969/ 45
4 Mike Hampton 1999/ 40
5 Darryl Kile 1997/ 39
T6 Roy Oswalt 2002/ 33
T6 Joe Niekro 1982/ 33
T6 Roy Oswalt 2005/ 33
T9 Mike Cuellar 1966/ 32
T9 Roger Clemens 2004/ 32
And in less than 2 full years with the club, he is already 3rd on the Stros career RSAA list:
1 Roy Oswalt 138
2 Billy Wagner 99
3 Roger Clemens 81
4 Mike Hampton 76
5 Dave Smith 75
6 Octavio Dotel 67
7 Nolan Ryan 60
8 Wade Miller 56
9 Don Wilson 55
10 Joe Sambito 53
The Stros open a 13 game homestand on Tuesday against the Nationals, the Pirates (47-65), the Cubs, and the Brewers before making another West Coast swing on August 22. Looks like Houstonians are going to be enjoying yet another late summer pennant race, which has become a delightfully common occurrence during the Stros’ Bidg-Bagwell era.