My son Cody and I attended the Stros‘ (33-40) Sunday afternoon game against the Rangers (38-35) and enjoyed the 10-inning 3-2 win behind the solid pitching of Andy Pettitte and the game-winning single of 3B Morgan Ensberg. The Stros have now won 13 of their last 20 games, which has generated all sorts of speculation on some local sports talk radio shows and in the Chronicle sports section that this club actually has a chance to make a playoff run.
Well, despite that optimism, this Stros club remains a poor hitting team that will struggle to win as many games as it loses, and likely will not win a playoff spot this season absent a major trade soon for at least one very good hitter or more likely two above-average hitters. Through 73 games (45% of the season), the Stros have scored 67 fewer runs than an average hitting National League club would have scored in an equivalent number of games (“RCAA” explained here). Only one of the other 29 MLB clubs — the woeful Rockies (24-48) has a worse team RCAA than the Stros. Only three regular players (Berkman 2 RCAA/.265 AVE/.369 OBP/.411 SLG; Ensberg 13/.271/.377/.547; and Bidg 3/.273/.333/.465) have created more runs than an average National League hitter and, beyond Berkman at 1B and Ensberg at 3B, every other non-pitching position on the club is in need of an upgrade.

That does not mean that every regular player in those other positions should or could reasonably be replaced. For example, it probably makes sense to see if Taveras (-7/.279/.317/.359) will turn into an every day player in centerfield given that he jumped from AA ball to MLB. Nevertheless, contrary to glowing reports that one reads about him in the mainstream media, Taveras is no sure thing given that his negative RCAA, poor on base percentage, and anemic slugging percentage are far below average for a MLB hitter (current National League average is 0/.270/.340/.431). Indeed, so far this season, the Stros’ regular outfield of Taveras, Jason Lane (-7/.231/.281/.467) and Chris Burke (-14/.202/.248/.269) is producing .35 runs per game less than an outfield of just average National League hitters would produce.
The fact that Bidg remains an above-average National League hitter at the age of 39 is probably remarkable enough to let him stay at 2B for the time being. But beyond Taveras and Bidg’s positions, the Stros should be looking at every possible upgrade available in the trade market — that’s what its going to take to turn this miserable hitting club around. Here are the Stros hitters’ RCAA so far this season through this past Saturday’s game, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 13
Craig Biggio 3
Orlando Palmeiro 3
Lance Berkman 2
Jeff Bagwell 0
Eric Bruntlett -2
Humberto Quintero -3
Luke Scott -4
Jose Vizcaino -4
Todd Self -5
Willy Taveras -7
Jason Lane -7
Raul Chavez -10
Mike Lamb -10
Brad Ausmus -12
Adam Everett -12
Chris Burke -14
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching staff continues to carry the club and is the only reason that the Stros have a fighting chance of winning as many games as they lose this season. The Rocket and Roy O are now first and third in the National League in runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here), and Pettitte has a double figure RSAA that is rising with each start. The remainder of the staff has been solid, except for the horrifying fifth starter trio of Duckworth, Astacio, and now Rodriguez. Even with those three dragging down the staff, the Stros are fourth in the National League in RSAA. Replace those three with a fifth starter who would be simply an average National League pitcher in RSAA and the Stros would have the top pitching staff in the National League, by far. The Stros pitchers’ RSAA so far this season through this past Saturday’s game:
Roger Clemens 34
Roy Oswalt 23
Andy Pettitte 11
Dan Wheeler 9
Brad Lidge 7
Chad Qualls 1
John Franco -1
Chad Harville -1
Mike Burns -2
Russ Springer -5
Brandon Backe -8
Brandon Duckworth -11
Wandy Rodriguez -11
Ezequiel Astacio -14
Speaking of the fifth starter role, the Stros quietly promoted their best pitching prospect in the high minors — Fernando Nieve — from AA Corpus Christi to AAA Round Rock last week. If Nieve pitches well at Round Rock, then look for the Stros to promote him to the big league club to assume the fifth starter role sometime after the All-Star break.
By the way, in connection with the Stros’ ceremony this past weekend to retire Jimmy Wynn‘s jersey, Lee Sinins compiled the top ten Stros hitters in career RCAA:
1 Jeff Bagwell 680
2 Craig Biggio 349
3 Jose Cruz 277
4 Lance Berkman 256
5 Cesar Cedeno 249
6 Jimmy Wynn 240
7 Bob Watson 216
8 Joe Morgan 170
9 Moises Alou 128
10 Terry Puhl 114
The Stros hit the road this week for seven games at Colorado and Cincy (30-45), then return home next Monday for seven games against the Padres (41-34) and the Dodgers (35-39) before breaking for the All-Star game.