After almost writing off the Stros’ playoff chances a couple of weeks ago, a couple of future Hall of Famers turned in the type of remarkable performances that might just make the difference in pushing the Stros into the National League Wild Card Playoff berth.
On this past Wednesday, after the Stros had lost two straight games to the Marlins and fallen 1.5 games behind the Fish in the race for the Wild Card playoff spot, Roger Clemens took the mound 15 hours after his mother’s death and pitched the Stros to a desperately needed 10-2 victory over the Marlins. Then, on Friday, Jeff Bagwell came off the bench in only his third at bat since coming back after four months on the disabled list to hit a two out, pinch hit single in the bottom of the ninth to drive in the winning run in a 2-1 victory over the Brewers that pushed the Stros back into the lead in the Wild Card race. With their series sweep of the Brewers, the Stros have now won five straight games as they prepare for their final 13 regular season games over the last two weeks of the regular season.

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John McMullen — who went from savior of the Houston Astros franchise to one of the more reviled owners in Houston professional sports history — died yesterday at his home in Montclair, New Jersey. McMullen was 87 years old.
McMullen was a successful businessman from the New York area who became interested in investing in professional sports in the mid-1970’s when New York Yankee owner George Steinbrenner persuaded him to buy a limited partnership interest in the Yankee franchise. That experience prompted McMullen — who was known to be a quite witty man — to observe “[t]here is nothing quite so limited as being a limited partner of George Steinbrenner’s.”

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I enjoy the writing of Chronicle sportswriter Richard Justice, but he occasionally gets carried away, as with this note on his blog today:

“Andruw Jones will be the National League’s Most Valuable Player. The balloting won’t be close if voters have been paying attention. He’s leading the NL in both home runs and RBIs. He carried the Braves while their young players were establishing themselves. He’s the man.”

Andruw Jones for National League MVP? Yes, he did hit his 48th and 49th homers yesterday and is having his best season, but Jones (32 RCAA/.360 OBA/.612 SLG/.972 OPS) is not even close to being the best hitter in the National League this season. The best hitters are the Cubs’ Derrick Lee (84/.422/.670/1.092) and Albert Pujols (76/.434/.631/1.065), both of whom have created over 40 more runs for their respective teams than Jones has for the Braves. Heck, Andruw Jones is not even clearly the best hitter named Jones on the Braves — Chipper is hitting 30/.418/.570/.988. There are at least eight other players in the National League — including the Stros’ Morgan Ensberg (34/.384/.564/.948) — who are having at least as good or better a season hitting the baseball as Andruw Jones.
Inasmuch as Pujols has been the best player in the National League not named Bonds over the past several seasons, he should win the National League MVP this season. Lee would not be a bad choice, either, although my sense is that he is having a career year and Pujols deserves it more because of his previous MVP-quality seasons. However, one thing is clear — despite all those taters, Andruw Jones is not the National League MVP this season.

Almost on cue, after I had written off those hitting-challenged Stros yet again, the amazing 39 year old Craig Biggio jacks a three-run, two out, top-of-the-ninth tater in his first at bat against old Stros buddy Billy Wagner to lead the Stros to an 8-6 victory and a series sweep of the Phillies.
My previous post projected that the Stros (75-64) needed to win 16 of their final 26 games to achieve the 88 wins that will probably be necessary to win the Wild Card playoff berth. Given their lack of hitting and downward trend in terms of wins and losses, I doubted that the Stros could do it. However, with the series sweep of the Phils, the club needs to go just 13-10 over their last 23 to hit that 88 win number. Stranger things have definitely happened.
The Stros have a weekender in Milwaukee (69-71) before returning home for a key seven game homestand, including a big four game series at the Juice Box on Monday through Thursday of next week with the Marlins (74-65), who are the Stros’ main competition for the Wild Card. At this point in the season, the Marlins have a 59 combined RCAA/RSAA statistic (explained here), which is only marginally higher than the Stros’ combined RCAA/RSAA of 54. So, the two main Wild Card contenders are fairly evenly-matched, although the Marlins are much better hitters than the Stros and the Stros pitching — particularly their relief pitching — is better than the Marlins’ pitching.

Despite the best pitching season in the club’s history, the Stros‘ (72-64) chronic lack of hitting is making it increasingly unlikely that the team will be able to win enough of their final 26 games to secure the National League Wild Card Playoff berth for the second straight season.
Thus, after getting back into the NL Wild Card playoff race with a 47-22 streak after their abysmal 15-30 start, the Stros are now 10-12 over their last 22 games, which is probably more representative of this Stros club’s overall ability-level. My sense it will take 88 wins to secure the Wild Card playoff spot this season, so the Stros would have to go 16-10 over the rest of the regular season to achieve that number of wins. Based on the way the club is hitting, that’s not likely.

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The subject of the sixth segment in our ongoing series about the key Stros players (previous posts here, here, here, here, and here) is Willy Taveras, who represents a good example of how people who do not examine the facts often poorly evaluate the ability of ballplayers.
As noted in this earlier post, if all you listened to was the Stros’ P.R. machine and Stros play-by-play announcer Milo Hamilton, then you would think that Taveras is the odd’s-on favorite to win the National League Rookie-of-the-Year Award. “He’s so fast!” “He leads the league in bunt hits!” “He has more hits than any other rookie!” These are just a few of the breathless comments that one commonly hears about Taveras from most Houston media types (with the notable exception of Charlie Pallilo).

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Pitcher Andy Pettitte is the subject of the fifth in the ongoing series about the key Stros players (previous posts here, here, here and here).
Pettitte is the hometown boy (Deer Park High School in suburban east Houston area) who returned to Houston in 2004 with a $31.5 million three year contract after a brilliant nine year stint with the New York Yankees that coincided with the Yankees winning four World Series Championships. Pettitte’s first season was highly frustrating as an elbow injury resulted in a premature end of the season before the Stros caught fire and came within a game of the World Series. One would not be going out on a limb to suggest that the Stros would have made the World Series in 2004 had Pettitte been able to pitch the entire season.

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The subject of the fourth segment of the series of posts analyzing the key Stros players (previous posts here, here, and here) is thirdbaseman Morgan Ensberg, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of any hitter in Stros history.
Ensberg is a late bloomer out of college baseball, who came up through the Stros’ farm system with fellow USC baseball star Jason Lane. Interestingly, Lane was always considered the better prospect, but Ensberg was the one who burst on to the Stros scene first with his strong first full season in 2003.

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