The subject of the sixth segment in our ongoing series about the key Stros players (previous posts here, here, here, here, and here) is Willy Taveras, who represents a good example of how people who do not examine the facts often poorly evaluate the ability of ballplayers.
As noted in this earlier post, if all you listened to was the Stros’ P.R. machine and Stros play-by-play announcer Milo Hamilton, then you would think that Taveras is the odd’s-on favorite to win the National League Rookie-of-the-Year Award. “He’s so fast!” “He leads the league in bunt hits!” “He has more hits than any other rookie!” These are just a few of the breathless comments that one commonly hears about Taveras from most Houston media types (with the notable exception of Charlie Pallilo).

Well, Taveras might win the Rookie-of-the-Year Award, but it would be because there is a far below-average rookie class in the National League this season, not because Taveras is a particularly good player. In fact, Taveras is not even an average player at this stage of his development. As noted in his statistics below, Taveras has a -12 RCAA, which means that he has produced 12 fewer runs so far this season than an average National League hitter would have generated in the same number of plate appearances. In almost every key offensive category — on-base average, slugging percentage, OPS, etc. — Taveras is not only below average, but far below average. Only because of the average nature of his batting average — which happens to be among the most misleading of hitting statistics — is Taveras considered by superficial observers to be a budding star. Even Taveras’ defense in centerfield — which was supposed to be quite good due to his excellent range — has been surprisingly average to below-average because of below-average recognition skills.
Having said all that, it’s far too early to write Taveras off. He has done a decent job of making the difficult jump from Double A ball to the National League. He is only 23 and still has time to improve. But Taveras has produced only a paltry 22 walks and 18 extra base hits in 550 career plate appearances, so it’s far too early to pencil him in as the future Stros centerfielder or even as a sure-fire part of the Berkman-Oswalt-Ensberg-Lidge nucleus of the club over the next five seasons. If he can improve his walk rate to raise his on-base average to around .380 or so, and improve his power to an average or just below-average slugging percentage, then Taveras can be a reasonably effective National League player. But he’s not there yet, and awarding him the Rookie-of-the-Year Award for a far below average season is not the way to point out his deficiencies to him.
Taveras’ stats are here.