After almost writing off the Stros’ playoff chances a couple of weeks ago, a couple of future Hall of Famers turned in the type of remarkable performances that might just make the difference in pushing the Stros into the National League Wild Card Playoff berth.
On this past Wednesday, after the Stros had lost two straight games to the Marlins and fallen 1.5 games behind the Fish in the race for the Wild Card playoff spot, Roger Clemens took the mound 15 hours after his mother’s death and pitched the Stros to a desperately needed 10-2 victory over the Marlins. Then, on Friday, Jeff Bagwell came off the bench in only his third at bat since coming back after four months on the disabled list to hit a two out, pinch hit single in the bottom of the ninth to drive in the winning run in a 2-1 victory over the Brewers that pushed the Stros back into the lead in the Wild Card race. With their series sweep of the Brewers, the Stros have now won five straight games as they prepare for their final 13 regular season games over the last two weeks of the regular season.

The Stros (81-68) are 1.5 games ahead of the Phillies (80-70) and 2.5 games up on the fading Marlins (79-71) in the race for the Wild Card playoff berth. Here are the remaining series for the three Wild Card playoff contenders:

Stros: at Pittsburgh (4); at Chicago (3); at St. Louis (2); Chicago at home (4);
Phillies: at Atlanta (3); at Cincinnati (3); Mets at home (3); at Washington (3);
Marlins: at New York Mets (3); at Atlanta (3); Washington at home (3); Atlanta at home (3).

Based on the foregoing, none of the three contenders appear to have a clear edge in the schedule coming down the home stretch.
Thus, after getting back into the NL Wild Card playoff race with a 47-22 streak after their abysmal 15-30 start, the Stros are now 19-16 over their past 35 games, which is closer to this club’s typical performance. My sense is that it will take at least 88 wins to secure the Wild Card playoff spot this season, so the Stros would have to go 7-6 over their final 13 games to achieve that number of wins. If the club can go 9-4 and get to 90 wins, that is almost a sure bet to win the Wild Card berth.
The Stros chronically-deficient hitting has actually improved modestly over the past two weeks even though one of the Stros two best hitters — Morgan Ensberg — has been out during that time with a bruised hand. Here are the Stros hitters’ individual runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) through Saturday’s games, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 35
Lance Berkman 29
Craig Biggio 7
Jeff Bagwell 1
Charles Gipson 0
Charlton Jimerson 0
Jason Lane 0
Orlando Palmeiro 0
Todd Self -4
Eric Bruntlett -6
Jose Vizcaino -6
Humberto Quintero -7
Luke Scott -7
Raul Chavez -11
Brad Ausmus -12
Chris Burke -12
Willy Taveras -12
Mike Lamb -15
Adam Everett -18
The Stros have bumped their team RCAA to a -38, which is tied for 12th among the 16 National League teams. Mike Lamb (-15 RCAA/.270 OBA/.401 SLG/.671 OPS) has finally started hitting over the past couple of weeks after having a miserable season, while Jason Lane (0/.301/.491/.792) continues his steady post-All Star break hitting. If Lamb and Lane can continue to supplement Ensberg (35/.385/.565/.950) and Lance Berkman‘s (29/.408/.512/.919) strong hitting down the stretch, then the Stros’ chances of winning the Wild Card berth increase substantially.
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching remains outstanding and is one of the best performances by a staff in club history. Here are the Stros pitchers’ individual runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) through Saturday’s games:
Roger Clemens 53
Andy Pettitte 40
Roy Oswalt 33
Brad Lidge 14
Dan Wheeler 14
Chad Qualls 7
Mike Gallo 3
Travis Driskill 0
Chad Harville -1
Scott Strickland -1
Mike Burns -4
Russ Springer -4
John Franco -5
Brandon Backe -9
Ezequiel Astacio -12
Brandon Duckworth -12
Wandy Rodriguez -19
The Stros pitching staff’s aggregate 97 RSAA is second to the Cardinals staff’s 136 among the 16 National League teams. The Rocket, Pettitte and Oswalt continue to be first, third, and seventh among National League pitchers in RSAA, which continues to be one of the finest seasons by three starting pitchers on one staff in modern baseball history.
One worrisome aspect about the competition in the stretch run is that the Phillies — who have been hitting-deficient like the Stros for much of the season — have really started to mash the ball over the past couple of weeks. Accordingly, the Phils’ combined RCAA/RSAA currently is 84, which is quite a bit better than the Stros’ 59 and the Marlins’ 20, whose pitching outside their top three starters has really cratered. Therefore, if recent trends hold, this is a two team race between the Stros and the Phillies, and the Phils’ combination of hot-hitting and strong pitching may be tough to beat.