Despite the best pitching season in the club’s history, the Stros‘ (72-64) chronic lack of hitting is making it increasingly unlikely that the team will be able to win enough of their final 26 games to secure the National League Wild Card Playoff berth for the second straight season.
Thus, after getting back into the NL Wild Card playoff race with a 47-22 streak after their abysmal 15-30 start, the Stros are now 10-12 over their last 22 games, which is probably more representative of this Stros club’s overall ability-level. My sense it will take 88 wins to secure the Wild Card playoff spot this season, so the Stros would have to go 16-10 over the rest of the regular season to achieve that number of wins. Based on the way the club is hitting, that’s not likely.

Here are the Stros hitters’ individual runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) through Saturday’s games, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Morgan Ensberg 36
Lance Berkman 22
Craig Biggio 6
Orlando Palmeiro 4
Jeff Bagwell 1
Charles Gipson 0
Jason Lane -1
Luke Scott -2
Todd Self -4
Jose Vizcaino -5
Eric Bruntlett -7
Humberto Quintero -7
Raul Chavez -10
Chris Burke -12
Willy Taveras -12
Brad Ausmus -15
Adam Everett -16
Mike Lamb -20
The Stros overall have a hideous -42 RCAA, which is 13th among the 16 National League teams. To make matters worse, Manager Phil Garner continues to do his best imitation of Jimy Williams by making moves such as playing Mike Lamb (-20 RCAA/.247 OBA/.368 SLG/.615 OPS) — who has had a perfectly hideous season — in place of Jason Lane (-1/.304/.490/.794) — who has been one of the club’s better hitters since the All-Star break — on this past Saturday night. Down the stretch drive, Garner would be well-advised to play Lane, Orlando Palmeiro (4/.360/.490/.850), and AAA Round Rock slugger Luke Scott in the outfield and leave Willy Taveras (-12/.328/.346/.674) and Chris Burke (-12/.306/.363/.669) on the bench, but don’t count on that happening. Garner, as with Williams before him, is proving not to be the bench manager that a team needs to steer a poor-hitting team through a pennant race.
Meanwhile, the Stros remain in the Wild Card playoff race solely because of their outstanding pitching. Here are the Stros pitchers’ individual runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) through Saturday’s games:
Roger Clemens 57
Andy Pettitte 36
Roy Oswalt 30
Dan Wheeler 17
Brad Lidge 13
Chad Qualls 8
Mike Gallo 2
Travis Driskill 0
Scott Strickland 0
Chad Harville -1
Russ Springer -4
Mike Burns -5
John Franco -5
Brandon Backe -9
Brandon Duckworth -12
Ezequiel Astacio -13
Wandy Rodriguez -18
The Stros pitching staff’s aggregate 90 RSAA is second to the Cardinals staff’s 123 among the 16 National League teams. The Rocket, Pettitte and Oswalt continue to be first, third, and fifth among National League pitchers in RSAA, which is one of the finest seasons by three starting pitchers on one staff in modern baseball history. The Stros’ pitchers really do have a pretty good lack of support lawsuit against the club’s hitters.
The Stros now go on the road for a key three game series in Philadelphia against the Wild Card playoff-leading Phillies (73-64) and then a weekender against the Brew Crew (67-70) before returning to the Juice Box for a big four game series next week against the Marlins (72-64), who remain the most team most likely from a statistical standpoint to win the Wild Card playoff berth.