This NY Times article checks in on Mets centerfielder, Carlos Beltran, who the Stros rented during their incredible second half drive to win a 2004 post-season berth and come within a game of their first World Series. Beltran had a disappointing, injury-plagued season last year (-2 RCAA/.330 OBA/.414 SLG/.744 OPS), his first as a Met, but he is making up for it this season (39/.384/.619/1.003) as the Mets are the favorite at this point to win the National League pennant.
Although Beltran is a wonderful talent, my sense still is that the Stros probably made the right move in not paying the $120 million over seven years that it would have taken to retain him after the 2004 season (see earlier posts here and here). Lance Berkman is only a year older than Beltran and has generated over 200 more RCAA than Beltran during their respective careers, so it would be hard to rationalize paying Berkman less than Beltran. That would tie up over $40 million in payroll for a long-term in two players, which the Stros learned was a tough pill to swallow during the declines of former sluggers Jeff Bagwell and Richard Hidalgo. Moreover, just to put it in the perspective of this season, even if Beltran were added to the Stros lineup, the club’s combined RCAA/RSAA numbers reflect that the Stros would still be behind the Cardinals and the Reds in the National League Central race, although they obviously would be closer than they are now and would have a better chance of overtaking those two clubs for a post-season berth.
Thus, even as good as Beltran is, I still like better the flexibility that the Stros will have after this season when about $40 million in payroll attributable to Bags, Pettitte, Clemens, etc. comes off the books. That should be enough to buy the 2-3 additional hitters that the club needs to turn around the downward trend in hitting that the Stros have experienced since the 2000 season.

The Stros won at San Diego last night, but a situation during the game highlighted another among the many problems with this particular Stros team — manager Phil Garner.
Now, don’t get me wrong. Garner’s less-than-average ability as a Major League Baseball manager is nowhere near as big a problem as the Stros’ chronic hitting woes or this season’s overall lackluster pitching performance. Moreover, he is a genuinely nice man who is impossible to dislike personally. But the fact of the matter is that he is not a good manager. Among recent Stros managers, not as bad as Jimy Williams, mind you, but certainly not as good as Larry Dierker.

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People who follow baseball love to talk about possible trades of players, particularly when the hometown club isn’t doing well, as is the case with the Stros this season. That’s certainly been the case in Houston over the past couple of weeks as almost anyone with even a passing interest in the Stros has been talking about who the club should jettison to jump-start the team for another pennant drive. Fans’ emotions regarding those trade talks were not helped when former star-turned-human reliever Brad Lidge blew another save over the weekend, traumatizing Chronicle sports columnist John Lopez, among others.
Then, Chronicle sports columnist Richard Justice wrote yesterday that an unnamed baseball executive told him that Stros owner Drayton McLane had directed Stros GM Tim Purpura to get anything he could in trade for Lidge after the latest blown save. That rumor was quickly followed by an ever more troubling one that the Stros had supposedly even offered star pitcher Roy Oswalt in trade talks. And, then — presto! — in the end, the trade deadline passes and the Stros stand pat and don’t do anything. I doubt that McLane ever said such a thing about Lidge to Purpura or that Roy O was ever seriously a subject of trade talks, but the gossip nevertheless got people’s juices flowing.
Beyond how this type of social interaction binds a community and is one of the reasons that a Major League Baseball club can be a positive force for a city, what’s particularly interesting about these discussions is how they reveal people’s expectations about their baseball club. As I noted in this post from several weeks ago, those expectations are a funny thing given that they color our view toward the club regardless of whether the expectations are based in fact. That’s one of the reasons why I tend to rely on statistical analysis of players’ performance a great deal. Going through that analytical process helps me avoid relying on player myths or dubious generalities about teams. My sense is that Stros GM Purpura does the same thing, which comforts me.
The recent controversy over Lidge is a case in point. Lidge is having a miserable season — his earned run average currently stands at 5.77 and his runs saved against average (“RSAA,” defined here) is an atrocious -7, meaning that he has pitched well-below an average National League pitcher so far this season (a precisely average NL pitcher’s RSAA would be zero). To make matters worse, Lidge has given up seven home runs — usually at a key point in the game — in a little over 48 innings after giving up only five in almost 71 innings last season and eight in over 94 innings in the 2004 season. And yes, people have not forgotten the emotional trauma of that whole Pujols affair in the playoffs last post-season. After the two straight seasons in which Lidge had a total of 40 RSAA (26 in 2004 and 14 in 2005), Lidge has fallen so far that I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that most Stros fans wouldn’t have minded McLane and Purpura exiling him to, say, Kansas City, regardless of what crumbs could be recovered in trade.
Meanwhile, in the hand-wringing over what to do about Lidge, virtually nothing has been said about Stros lefthanded starter, Andy Pettitte, who has been much worse than Lidge this season. After having arguably the best season of his career last season, Pettitte has really stunk it up this season, currently meandering along at a 5.18 ERA and a -12 RSAA. He has given up an astounding 21 home runs in just over 139 innings after giving up only 17 in over 222 innings last season, and he has saved over 40 fewer runs for the club this season than he did at the same stage of last season (Lidge, in comparison, has saved only about 17 fewer runs this season than at the same stage last season). And just to punctuate how bad Pettitte has been, the Stros are paying him almost $16.5 million smackeroos for stinking up Minute Maid Park, while the Stros pay Lidge a relatively modest $3.975 million.
My point? While it’s clear than Pettitte has been a much bigger reason for the Stros’ troubles this season than Lidge, nary a word was mentioned over the past several weeks about trading Pettitte. Now, maybe Pettitte’s performance and contract made him untradeable, but he is coming off the best season of his career in 2005 and it’s not unreasonable to think that a veteran lefthanded starter could still help a potential championship club such as the Mets in the post-season. And certainly the Stros were incentivized to unload some of Pettitte’s enormous salary, so you would think that a deal would not have been beyond the realm of possibility. We probably won’t ever know whether Pettitte’s name came up in trade negotiations before this season’s trading deadline, but it’s clear that he wasn’t even on the radar screen of the fans’ discussions about trades — Lidge was almost the total focus.
So, the Stros fans clearly preferred to trade the cheaper, younger pitcher with more upside potential who has pitched better over the past three seasons and not dropped off this season as much as the aging veteran who is being paid far in excess of what his performance this season justifies. Let’s just say that I’m glad Drayton McLane and Tim Purpura are making these decisions and not the fans.
By the way, as noted in this previous post, Stros management was prudent to stand pat. The Stros have a boatload of payroll coming off the books after this season, which allows the club to address needs in attempting to re-sign Oswalt and bringing in some additional hitters, which has been a chronic weakness that this club has had trouble addressing ever since the club gave Bagwell and Hidalgo the big contracts around 2000. Now that the club will finally be in a financial position to address those needs after this season, it would not have made sense to make a trade at this juncture that might have decreased the club’s flexibility this coming off-season.
Lidge and Pettitte’s career and season statistics are below, and the abbreviations for the stats are here:

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If you are interested in Major League Baseball races from the past, do not go to this new website (described below) if you have some pressing deadlines — you will not be able to leave for awhile:

BaseballRace.com is the creation of . . . Christopher J. Falvey. It is an online application that allows you to view any Major League Baseball season, split by league or division (even wild card races), as an animated, date-by-date race between the various teams you choose.
It was designed to bring a historical season to live more so than mere standings or graphs. With BaseballRace.com, you can experience an entire season “live.”
The data goes back to 1901, and includes every game of every season up through yesterday (7/30/2006).

Unless you are a Phillies fan, go to September 20 of the 1964 National League season and watch what happens over the final two weeks of the season. Hat tip to Eric McErlain for the link.

The best radio announcer that the Houston Astros Baseball Club has ever had — Gene Elston — will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame today in Cooperstown, NY. Here is my previous post on Elston at the time that his induction was announced, and the Chronicle’s David Barron has this interesting interview of Elston in the today’s Chronicle.
I couldn’t help but notice Elston’s response to Barron’s question about his opinion of former Cardinals and Cubs announcer, the late Harry Caray:

What did [Elston] think of Harry Caray?
“Harry Caray was a gem. He was one in a million. He was one of the greatest guys you would ever want to meet. Just absolutely fabulous.
“He was not a good play-by-play man, but he was the fans’ announcer. He was an entertainer. He sold the game. He probably sold the game more just by being there than anybody I can think of.”

A little bit different opinion of Caray than that expressed by another Hall of Fame announcer for the Stros, don’t you think?
Update: Richard Justice has the story from Elston’s induction ceremony.

Chronicle sports columnist Richard Justice wrote the following answer to a question in his blog recently (toward the end of the blog post):

I love [disabled Stros slugger Jeff Bagwell] to death, but his big contract and him not wanting to admitt his playing day’s are over has cost this 2006 team more than we thought it would.
I don’t think so. Drayton McLane was told last summer that if he allowed Bagwell to be activated in September, his chances of winning an insurance claim would be reduced 50 percent. He was advised not to let him come to spring training because they’d be reduced another 50 percent.
He made the decision because it was the right thing to do. Did he nudge Bagwell toward retirement? Sure he did. No matter what happened, he was going to be obligated to pay Bagwell $17 million this season. What happens between the Astros and the insurance company may takes years to settle.
There’s a fairness issue. Bagwell wanted to play. He still wants to play. Problem is, he can’t. One doctor told him he has the biggest bone spur in his right shoulder he’d ever seen. If Bagwell chooses to have it removed, he risks doing permanent damage to his deltoid muscle. His alternative is a shoulder replacement procedure. Neither choice is very good.
To the many people who ask, he comes around only occasionally. He has purchased a home in San Diego and spends more and more time there. He also has a home in Cabo San Lucas and spends time there.

So, Justice is suggesting that Stros owner Drayton McLane acted reasonably with regard to Bags’ injury? How on earth does Justice square that view with his broadsides against McLane over McLane’s handling of the Bagwell injury situation set forth in previous blog posts here, here, here and here?
Kevin Whited over at blogHouston.net has previously noted the tendency of Justice to take both sides of an issue, although not usually in the same article. However, Justice’s diplomatic blog post above regarding McLane’s handling of the Bagwell injury situation is hard to square with his previous over-the-top criticism of McLane in regard to the matter while, at the same time, ignoring Bagwell’s somewhat childish behavior.
I’ll give Justice credit in that he is willing to admit when he takes a position that turns out wrong. Will Justice publicly apologize to McLane for his previous criticism of him over the Bagwell injury situation? Inquiring minds want to know.

Amidst the Stros disappointing season, slugger Lance Berkman (42 RCAA/28 HR’s/.403 OBA/.617 SLG/1.020 OPS) is having another outstanding season, slugging his way to production that is second only to the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols in the National League.
In last night’s Stros win over the Reds, Berkman whacked another two yaks, one of which was a 452 foot bomb that landed in the restaurant that overlooks centerfield at Minute Maid Park. Berkman, a happy-go-lucky, life-long Texan who is a genuinely nice fellow, commented after the game on his mighty home run:

“I think the waiter made a nice play.”

Berkman’s career stats are below. In the history of the Stros franchise, only Jeff Bagwell (stats below, also) has had better hitting statistics than Berkman at the same stage of his career. Berkman, who is 30, currently has 331 RCAA for his career and is about ready to overtake Craig Biggio (currently at 352 RCAA for his career) for second place on the Stros career RCAA list. At the completion of the season (1998) that coincided with his 30th birthday, Bags’ RCAA was 431, and Bags tops the Stros career RCAA list at 680.
It’s sometimes easy to overlook, but we have been blessed to have been able to watch in Bidg, Bags and Berkman the three best non-pitcher players in the history of the Houston Astros Baseball Club.

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After the Stros were blown out by the Mets on Friday night and fell to a season-worst 46-51 record, it’s looking clearer by the day that the magic of the Stros’ past two second-half playoff runs has worn off completely.
Now through 60% of the season (7-9 in the last 10% of the season; prior periodic reviews here), the Stros have not won more games than they have lost in any of the five 10% segments of the season after the first one. The club’s hitting overall remains almost precisely National League average (team RCAA is -2 — 10th among the 16 NL teams) and the pitching staff continues to toil at well below National League-average level (RSAA of -20 — 13th in the NL). As noted in previous posts, the Stros’ trend of average or below National League-average hitting over the past half-dozen seasons means that the Stros need extraordinary pitching to contend for a playoff spot, and the club received just that in the past two seasons. Unfortunately, this season, the Stros pitching staff is a bit below National League average and, thus, the Stros are currently just that — a slightly-below National League-average club.

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Does anyone else get the impression that there is some serious gripping going on over in the Stros management offices?
What prompted the latest evidence of discontent was the Stros announcement yesterday that they had traded a couple of marginal minor league prospects for Tampa Bay 1B/3B/OF Aubrey Huff and about $1.65 million in cash.
Huff had been on the Devil Rays’ trading block for the past two seasons and it’s reasonably clear that the Rays’ management waited too long to pull the string on a trade. As a result, my sense is that the Stros got the better of this trade. Huff is a 29 year-old, six year player who had a mediocre rookie season in 2001, but then had three solid seasons from 2002-2004 (successive runs created against average [RCAA] of 20, 26, and 28). A lousy third baseman defensively, the left-handed hitting Huff was caught up in a logjam of Tampa Bay outfielders last season (-5 RCAA) and he has been mediocre this season (2 RCAA/.343 OBP/.477 SLG/.819 OPS). Nevertheless, at his age, Huff is a good bet to bounce back with a change of scenery and he certainly has the incentive to do so — he is a free agent at the end of this season. Besides, even at his current level of production this season, he is the fourth most productive hitter on the Stros behind Berkman, Ensberg and Lamb. Huff’s career stat line is 53/.343/.477/.819, which is nicely above the league average of 0/.335/.430/.765 for the time he has been in Major League Baseball.

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