What might have been

carlos beltran points his fingers.jpgThis NY Times article checks in on Mets centerfielder, Carlos Beltran, who the Stros rented during their incredible second half drive to win a 2004 post-season berth and come within a game of their first World Series. Beltran had a disappointing, injury-plagued season last year (-2 RCAA/.330 OBA/.414 SLG/.744 OPS), his first as a Met, but he is making up for it this season (39/.384/.619/1.003) as the Mets are the favorite at this point to win the National League pennant.
Although Beltran is a wonderful talent, my sense still is that the Stros probably made the right move in not paying the $120 million over seven years that it would have taken to retain him after the 2004 season (see earlier posts here and here). Lance Berkman is only a year older than Beltran and has generated over 200 more RCAA than Beltran during their respective careers, so it would be hard to rationalize paying Berkman less than Beltran. That would tie up over $40 million in payroll for a long-term in two players, which the Stros learned was a tough pill to swallow during the declines of former sluggers Jeff Bagwell and Richard Hidalgo. Moreover, just to put it in the perspective of this season, even if Beltran were added to the Stros lineup, the club’s combined RCAA/RSAA numbers reflect that the Stros would still be behind the Cardinals and the Reds in the National League Central race, although they obviously would be closer than they are now and would have a better chance of overtaking those two clubs for a post-season berth.
Thus, even as good as Beltran is, I still like better the flexibility that the Stros will have after this season when about $40 million in payroll attributable to Bags, Pettitte, Clemens, etc. comes off the books. That should be enough to buy the 2-3 additional hitters that the club needs to turn around the downward trend in hitting that the Stros have experienced since the 2000 season.

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