After the Stros were blown out by the Mets on Friday night and fell to a season-worst 46-51 record, it’s looking clearer by the day that the magic of the Stros’ past two second-half playoff runs has worn off completely.
Now through 60% of the season (7-9 in the last 10% of the season; prior periodic reviews here), the Stros have not won more games than they have lost in any of the five 10% segments of the season after the first one. The club’s hitting overall remains almost precisely National League average (team RCAA is -2 — 10th among the 16 NL teams) and the pitching staff continues to toil at well below National League-average level (RSAA of -20 — 13th in the NL). As noted in previous posts, the Stros’ trend of average or below National League-average hitting over the past half-dozen seasons means that the Stros need extraordinary pitching to contend for a playoff spot, and the club received just that in the past two seasons. Unfortunately, this season, the Stros pitching staff is a bit below National League average and, thus, the Stros are currently just that — a slightly-below National League-average club.
The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:
So, is there any hope for the Stros’ playoff chances? I’d put them at under 10% now as the Stros would have to go 44-21 over the rest of the season to finish 90-72, which is probably the minimum it will take to win the NL wildcard playoff spot. Although 1B/RF Lance Berkman (37 RCAA/.403 OBA/.595 SLG/.998 OPS) continues to be the hitting star of the team, and the club has gotten solid contributions from CF/2B Chris Burke (10/.377/488/.859) and 1B Mike Lamb (10/.371/.516/.887), there are simply not enough other indications that this club has what it takes to put together the winning streaks necessary to pull off that type of finish.
In fact, the Stros’ biggest problem remains the same one that I’ve been harping about for three seasons now — an unbalanced hitting attack. Berkman is one of the best hitters in MLB, but outside of Lamb, Burke, the injured 3B Morgan Ensberg (17/.390/.500/.890), and new acquisition Aubrey Huff (0/.367/.440/.807), the rest of the Stros’ hitters are rather pathetic. No other Stros hitter is even above-National League average and several of them — SS Everett (-16/.293/.321/.614), CF Taveras (-14/.309/.310/.620) and C Ausmus (-17/.303/.308/.612) — are among the least productive hitters in the National League. Taveras, in particular, needs to replace Jason Lane (-5/.722/.393/.330) as soon as possible at AAA Round Rock until he can learn to generate at least a National League-average on-base percentage, which is essential for Taveras if he is ever to become a productive MLB player.
To make matters worse, Stros’ manager Phil Garner seems to have a case of Jimy Williamitis as he insists upon trotting out the quietly unproductive LF Preston “Double-Play” Wilson (-10/.315/.415/.730) in the starting lineup each day. Faced with those hitting problems, Stros GM Tim Purpura acquired Huff a week or so ago, but Huff is no Carlos Beltran, so even when he hits his stride, Huff will likely be only a marginal upgrade who will not elevate the Stros’ hitting enough to vault the club into this season’s wildcard race.
Meanwhile, the pitching staff overall continues to muddle along, but there are signs that a surge could take place during the second half of the season. Roy O (3.22 ERA/16 RSAA) and Clemens (2.43 ERA/7 RSAA) are rock-solid and will likely continue to be through the remainder of the season. Pettitte (5.50 ERA/-12 RSAA) and rookie starter Buchholz (5.36 ERA/ -11 RSAA) continue to be inconsistent and problematic, but Brandon Backe (2.25 ERA/2 RSAA) will come off the disabled list this weekend, and he is likely to provide some better service than either Pettitte or Buchholz. Finally, the bullpen has actually showed some signs of hope recently, so a reasonable case continues to exist that the Stros’ pitching staff could turn things around during the second half of the season and return to above National League-average status. Just not enough to propel the Stros into the playoff race.
So, what to do over the remainder of the season? Actually, there is much to be optimistic about with regard to the Stros. Owner Drayton McLane has shown that he will pay among the highest payrolls in MLB to give the Stros a chance to succeed, and the club will free up over $50 million (almost half the club’s current payroll) after this season as Bagwell, Pettitte and Clemens’ contracts end. Attempting to extend Oswalt’s contract before he reaches free agency after the 2007 season should be a first priority (MLB.com reporter Alyson Footer speculated earlier this week that Oswalt was planning on testing free agency after the 2007 season), while declining to exercise the option on Wilson’s contract is a no-brainer. Berkman, Ensberg, Huff and Burke constitute a decent hitting nucleus, Lane and Lamb are capable of being solid contributors, and even the weak-hitting Everett is an extraordinary talent in the field. With money to spend and several good pitching prospects on the MLB roster and in the upper minor league pipeline, the Stros appear to be in a good position — with sound personnel decisions — to pick up a couple of productive hitters in the upcoming off-season who could vault the club back into a playoff contention.
After completing the series with the Mets over this weekend, the Stros play 15 of their next 21 games at Minute Maid, beginning with the Reds and the Diamondbacks next week. So, if the Stros are going to begin a run this season, this would be the time to do it. Just don’t bet on it happening.
I think you’re wrong about Ensberg and Lane.
Ensberg has a bad habit of playing hurt and not telling anybody.
Lane just doesn’t have what it takes. He’ll have a fine minor-league career.
You’re right about Ensberg playing hurt unwisely, although playing hurt has been a part of the Stros culture under Bidg and Bags. I don’t believe any of Ensberg’s injuries are career-threatening, and he has been one of the most productive hitting 3B in the National League for three out of the past four seasons. He’s a keeper.
You may be right about Lane, although it’s too early to say. His development has been somewhat stunted by the Stros remaining committed to playing Biggio, but he still generated positive runs created numbers in both of his previous seasons. Given the paucity of hitting in the Stros organization, it would not be smart to give up on a player who creates more runs than an average National League hitter. When you do that, you end up with the likes of Preston Wilson.
“…by the Stros remaining committed to playing Biggio”
The Astros management seems to have a sentimental streak when it comes to certain players. This mindset virtually dooms any chance of the club becoming competitive anytime in the near future. Craig Biggio is no longer an everyday player. He is now no more than a very good off the bench player who can adequately play a number of positions.
David, no question that the Stros have allowed both Bidg and Bags to play beyond their primes, and that does tend to cause problems in the development of the successor players.
However, let’s not overdue it. The Stros are a competitive team, although it doesn’t look as if they will be playoff-caliber this season. Moreover, Bidg is only a slightly-below National League-average hitter this season (-3 RCAA/.328 OBA/.421 SLG/.749 OPS). Unproductive players such as Ausmus, Wilson and Lane are far bigger problems for the Stros than Bidg.