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Author Archives: Tom
The Tyler Rose’s ordeal
In the late 1970’s, Earl Campbell ushered in a generation of outstanding running backs from Texas and he remains the standard by which power runners are evaluated. However, the pounding that Earl took during his playing career has taken a heavy toll. As Jay Christensen and Tom Dienhart report, the Tyler Rose is badly crippled despite the fact that he has just turned 50 years of age (a related Chip Brown/Dallas Morning News article is here).
Given Campbell’s condition, this recent Chronicle story looks even sillier than it did at the time it ran.
Will Houston learn from L.A.’s mistakes?
As noted earlier here and here, the Houston metropolitan area shares many of the same characteristics of the Los Angeles metro area, albeit with far lower density of population. Although rail transit is typically inefficient in areas of relatively low density of population, that has not stopped Houston’s Metropolitan Transit Authority from spending enormous sums on inefficent light rail for Houston and proposing even more. One of the common rationalizations used by Metro for such boondoggles is that the transit lines will promote development of more densely-populated housing around the rail lines that will ultimately generate enough mass transit users to justify the enormous cost. Someday.
So, given the L.A. region’s greater density of population, has rail transit generated such housing along the rail lines there? Well, not according to this front page Los Angeles Times article entitled “Near the rails but still on the road — Research casts doubt on the region’s strategy of pushing transit-oriented residential projects to get people out of cars”:
In Los Angeles alone, billions of public and private dollars have been lavished on transit-oriented projects such as Hollywood & Vine, with more than 20,000 residential units approved within a quarter mile of transit stations between 2001 and 2005.
But there is little research to back up the rosy predictions. Among the few academic studies of the subject, one that looked at buildings in the Los Angeles area showed that transit-based development successfully weaned relatively few residents from their cars. It also found that, over time, no more people in the buildings studied were taking transit 10 years after a project opened than when it was first built.
To which USC urban economics professor Peter Gordon replies:
I could not have said it any better. Well actually, some of us did — over 30 years ago.
Yes, it is not pretty to say I-told-you-so. But the arrogant know-nothings inside LA’s beltway (including LA Times writers and including some who still hold public office) have been confused on this issue for years. Their plans have cost billions and, along the way, made traffic much worse. It was exactly the sort of fatal conceit that Hayek wrote about many years ago.
Yesterday, the same newspaper (front-page, below the fold) included “Will traffic-weary L.A. heed the toll call? … The land of the freeway is poised to become a little less free …”
What will they think of next?
Will Houston’s leaders listen? Incidents such as this do not make me optimistic that they will.
The search for a cure
Yale University School of Medicine neurologist Steven Novella, the editor of the Scientific Review of Alternative Medicine, provides this insightful NeuroLogica post that addresses the issue of why medical research has not discovered a cure for cancer despite the enormous resources dedicated to cancer research. In so doing, he clears up several common misconceptions about cancer and the incentives involved in finding a cure. He concludes as follows:
The overall reality is that the standard of scientific medicine is not a monolithic entity, controlled by any one institution, agency, or industry. It is a complex and dynamic set of many forces and interests. It is ultimately driven by science, which is a transparent and public process, and prevents any big brother type of control (this is partly why it is so important that healthcare be based upon science).
Cancer is a very difficult type of disease to treat, and the public has a very distorted view of the nature of cancer and of medical scientific progress in general. This has lead to unrealistic expectations of progress in curing cancer, which then in turn leads to thoughts that cancer research is somehow not working.
I find the same to be true in medicine in general ñ the public thinks of scientific progress in terms of dramatic ìbreakthroughs.î Media hype feeds this misconception. The reality is that medical scientific progress is largely a series of very small steps, with a cumulative effect of slow steady improvement in treatments. We have not cured Alzheimerís disease, ALS, Multiple Sclerosis Parkinsonís disease, and many other diseases as well. But treatments are slowly improving. Slow steady progress does not make good headlines, however, so the myth of miracle medical breakthroughs will likely continue to be promoted by the media.
Read the entire post. Hat tip to Sandy Szwarc.
An important distinction in the health care finance debate
Clear Thinkers favorite Arnold Kling, who appears to be everywhere these days in regard to discussions over reform of America’s health care finance system, reminds us in this Washington Times op-ed of an important distinction in the health care finance debate — despite the problems in health care finance, American medical care and research remains the hope of the world:
On one side of me at the graduation [of my daughter] sat [my wife], a breast cancer survivor. On the other side was my father, whose heart condition and blood pressure threatened to take his life before my daughter was ready to graduate kindergarten, much less college. Finally, there was my daughter herself, who since high school has had a chronic intestinal illness sufficiently contained that she could graduate on schedule.
None of these three stars would have been there without medical treatments that only became available since my daughter was born. New drugs played a significant role in each case. In fact, some pharmaceuticals critical for my daughter only were approved for her condition a few years before she was given them. Drugs in the pipeline are likely to play an important role in her future.
In other countries, would the same state-of-the-art medicines and equipment have been available to my father, my wife and my daughter? Perhaps. But it is a safe bet these technologies were not invented elsewhere.
Much of the medical innovation that the world enjoys comes from America. While as an economist I find much to criticize about our health-care system, America’s role in medical innovation is crucial not just for Americans, but for the entire world.
Read the entire op-ed.
Stros 2007 Season Review, Part Four
So, now that the Stros are done with that, where does the club go from here?
As the Stros (34-47) reached the halfway point of the 2007 season, that’s the question confronting the owner Drayton McLane and General Manager Tim Purpura. The club went 8-12 during the fourth 1/8th segment of the season after going 9-12, 11-9 and 6-14 during the first three (prior periodic season reviews here). That geneally abysmal performance removed any fleeting doubt that the Stros could compete for the National League Central division title. The Stros finished the first half of the season 13.5 games behind the division-leading Brewers (47-33), good for only fifth place in a mediocre six team division.
How has this happened to a club that is only a season and a half removed from a World Series appearance? As noted here earlier this season, some folks who cover the club on a regular basis don’t even know the answer to that question. However, it’s clear that the 2007 Stros have taken a major step backward because of an overall decline in pitching. Through 81 games, the Stros’ pitching staff has given up 65 more runs than a merely average National League club would have given up in the same number of innings (runs saved against average or RSAA, explained here) and an astounding 139 more runs than the best National League pitching staff (the Padres). The aggregate RSAA of the Stros’ staff is currently dead last in the 16 team National League, a startling development for a pitching staff that has been among the best in MLB over the past three seasons. The pitching staff’s performance is by far the worst by a Stros staff since the 2000 season, when a similar meltdown during the club’s initial season in Minute Maid Park resulted in a -69 RSAA and a disastrous 72-90 record, the only losing record for the Stros in the past 15 seasons until this season.
Meanwhile, the Stros’ hitting has actually taken an upswing recently after meandering below National League-average for the first 3/8ths of the season. Improved hitting from slugger Lance Berkman (12 RCAA/.386 OBP/.434 SLG/.820 OPS), continued excellent production from Hunter Pence (16/.358/.562/.920), and solid contributions from Mark Loretta (10/.410/.441/.851), Carlos Lee (6/.346/.514/.860), Mike Lamb (8/.365/.475/.840) and Luke Scott (4/.335/.465/.800) resulted in the Stros generating, through 81 games of the season, 18 more runs than an average National League club would have created using the same number of outs (runs created against average or RCAA, defined here) through the halfway point of the season. That’s good for 6th place in the National League, the best performance for Stros hitters since the 2004 club’s late season surge allowed the Stros to finish 7th in RCAA among the 16 National League teams.
Unfortunately, the Stros’ improved hitting does not come close to compensating for the Stros’ overall atrocious pitching. By adding a club’s overall RCAA and RSAA numbers, the sum provides a good measure for evaluating a club’s overall performance relative to an average National League club, which would have a combined RCAA/RSAA score of precisely zero. The Stros’ RCAA/RSAA deficit of -47 this season is a clear indication that the Stros are currently a far below-average National League team.
The season statistics for the Stros to date are below, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here. The Stros active roster is here with links to each individual player’s statistics:
More Kling on health care finance
Clear Thinkers favorite Arnold Kling continues in this TCS op-ed to provide his typically insightful analysis on what is needed to reform America’s health care finance system. He concludes:
“[R]eal health care reform in the United States will not happen because of some wonk’s clever plan. It will not happen as a result of an election. It will only happen when we change some of our beliefs about health care.”
Read the entire piece.
Biggio reaches 3,000 hit plateau
Good for Bidg that he collects his 3,000th hit on a night where he goes 5 for 6 and helped set up Carlos Lee’s walk-off bottom of the 11th grand slam to pull out an 8-5 win over the Rockies. That’s the Craig Biggio that Houstonians who have admired his magnificent 20 year career want to remember.
There are many tributes today around the web and in the Chronicle today, but John Lopez’s and the Plunk Biggio tributes are the best that I’ve read. Here are
a few of my blog posts on Bidg over the years:
A good man’s worthy cause (August 25, 2004);
Bidg sets the MLB hit by pitch record (June 29, 2005);
One of the downsides of the pursuit of 3,000 (August 26, 2005);
The remarkable Mr. Biggio (October 4, 2005); and
Where Bidg stands among the Stros’ best hitters of all-time (February 26, 2007).
Bidg’s career statistics through last night’s game are below, the best reflection of his certain Hall of Fame career.
Icahn on management theory and private equity
The adventures of Carl Icahn are a common topic on this blog, so the following Icahn observations from a WSJ-sponsored conference caught my eye:
At The Wall Street Journalís Deals & Deal Makers Conference, Icahn summed up his approach to executives of companies he takes over this way: ìThe secret is donít manage.î (Okay, he went on to say ìdonít micromanage.î)
And what wonders can be achieved with so little effort. ìThere are few companies I canít go in to today and save 30%. A lot of companies are very wasteful.î (Call it the Seinfeld theory of management, after the sit-com famous for being about nothing.) One company that decided it could do without Icahnís services is Motorola. The billionaire this year unsuccessfully fought to get on the board of the cellphone maker. ìI really didnít care a hell of a lot to be on the board,î he said of the experience.
Icahn isnít the biggest fan of U.S. and Western European CEOs. (ìWhen you get into a lot of corporationsÖtheyíre much worse than you think. I mean, theyíre really terribly run.î) He also discussed his ìDarwin Theoryî of corporate governance, according to which there is a sliding scale of intelligence on corporate ladders. Why? Each manager starting with the CEO ensures that the person below him is dumber so as not to be threatened.
No one will accuse Icahn of not speaking his mind. He was one of the few attendees at the conference to predict that the private-equity market has peaked. Of the leveraged-buyout firms like Blackstone Group that are going public, he said: ìThese guys arenít stupid and thatís one reason why theyíre monetizing.î
Meanwhile, John Carney over at DealBreaker reports the following Icahn anecdote from the WSJ conference:
Carl Icahn tried to short the stock of the Blackstone group immediately after its IPO, the billionaire “corporate raider” told an audience at a conference sponsored by the Wall Street Journal.
“I tried to borrow the stock but I couldn’t do it in time,” Icahn said.
After he spoke to the conference, Icahn asked reporters not to print the story of his attempt to short Blackstone.
A primer on insulin, blood sugar and Type 2 diabetes
Mark Sisson (earlier post here) is now blogging on nutrition and exercise issues, and one of his first posts provides this good overview of the often misunderstood interrelationship between insulin, blood sugar and Type 2 diabetes. As Sisson notes, “we are all, in an evolutionary sense, predisposed to becoming diabetic.”