As noted earlier here and here, the Houston metropolitan area shares many of the same characteristics of the Los Angeles metro area, albeit with far lower density of population. Although rail transit is typically inefficient in areas of relatively low density of population, that has not stopped Houston’s Metropolitan Transit Authority from spending enormous sums on inefficent light rail for Houston and proposing even more. One of the common rationalizations used by Metro for such boondoggles is that the transit lines will promote development of more densely-populated housing around the rail lines that will ultimately generate enough mass transit users to justify the enormous cost. Someday.
So, given the L.A. region’s greater density of population, has rail transit generated such housing along the rail lines there? Well, not according to this front page Los Angeles Times article entitled “Near the rails but still on the road — Research casts doubt on the region’s strategy of pushing transit-oriented residential projects to get people out of cars”:
In Los Angeles alone, billions of public and private dollars have been lavished on transit-oriented projects such as Hollywood & Vine, with more than 20,000 residential units approved within a quarter mile of transit stations between 2001 and 2005.
But there is little research to back up the rosy predictions. Among the few academic studies of the subject, one that looked at buildings in the Los Angeles area showed that transit-based development successfully weaned relatively few residents from their cars. It also found that, over time, no more people in the buildings studied were taking transit 10 years after a project opened than when it was first built.
To which USC urban economics professor Peter Gordon replies:
I could not have said it any better. Well actually, some of us did — over 30 years ago.
Yes, it is not pretty to say I-told-you-so. But the arrogant know-nothings inside LA’s beltway (including LA Times writers and including some who still hold public office) have been confused on this issue for years. Their plans have cost billions and, along the way, made traffic much worse. It was exactly the sort of fatal conceit that Hayek wrote about many years ago.
Yesterday, the same newspaper (front-page, below the fold) included “Will traffic-weary L.A. heed the toll call? … The land of the freeway is poised to become a little less free …”
What will they think of next?
Will Houston’s leaders listen? Incidents such as this do not make me optimistic that they will.