Be careful, Mr. Wagoner

General Motors General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner made some interesting public comments this past week in Dallas regarding the besieged automaker’s bankruptcy prospects:

"Under any scenario we can imagine, our financial position, or cash position, will remain robust through the rest of this year," Mr. Wagoner said Thursday while in Dallas to speak to a business organization. He said the company has plenty of options to shore up its finances beyond 2008, although he declined to outline them.

The comments failed to boost investor sentiment as GM shares fell 6.2% to $9.69 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading Thursday. The stock has been trading at its lowest levels in more than 50 years as concerns mount about the company’s financial position amid a steep decline in U.S. sales.

GM and other U.S. auto makers are reeling as the slow U.S. economy depresses sales and as high gasoline prices push many would-be buyers to small, more-fuel-efficient vehicles and away from the higher-margin SUVs and trucks. Through June, for instance, GM’s U.S. sales slipped 16%, more than offsetting strength in overseas markets.

GM has about $24 billion in cash but is burning an estimated $3 billion a quarter, prompting talk that it will need a significant cash influx to get to 2010.

"We have no thought of [bankruptcy] whatsoever," Mr. Wagoner said in response to an audience question during the Dallas event.

Now, I am not involved with GM, but I have been involved over the past 30 years in my share of big company reorganizations. Contrary to Wagoner’s statements, GM has almost certainly "thought" of bankruptcy and GM management probably continues to examine whether a reorganization under chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code makes sense for the company, which it just might. Frankly, not to examine such alternatives would be egregious mismanagement. Any seasoned investor knows this and the market is clearly pricing that risk by lowering the company’s stock price.

So, despite all that, if GM ends up in bankruptcy, is Wagoner at risk of being indicted for misleading investors regarding the company’s ongoing bankruptcy analysis? Stated another way, will Wagoner be indicted for breaching the obligation to throw in the towel?

Dr. Michael DeBakey, R.I.P.

Debakey071208 Dr. Michael DeBakey (previous posts here) died late Friday at the age of 99. One of the most influential men in Houston’s history, Dr. DeBakey was the world-famous cardiovascular surgeon who researched, developed and initially implemented not only a variety of devices that help heart patients, but also such now-common surgical procedures as heart-bypass surgery. Two of the Chronicle’s finest reporters — Science reporter Eric Berger and Texas Medical Center reporter Todd Ackerman — provide this outstanding article on Dr. DeBakey’s remarkable life, and Eric provides an audio file of his 2005 interview of Dr. DeBakey here. The New York Times’ article on Dr. DeBakey’s death is here.

As with my late father, Dr. DeBakey was one of the leaders of a talented generation of post-World War II doctors who embraced the optimistic view of therapeutic intervention in the practice of medicine, which was a fundamental change from the sense of therapeutic powerlessness that was widely taught to doctors by their pre-WWII professors. As noted earlier here and here, that seismic shift in medicine has changed the course of human history.

But the tremendous impact that Dr. DeBakey had on medicine is exceeded by the massive effect that he had on Houston. When Dr. DeBakey accepted the president’s position at Baylor College of Medicine a few years after the end of World War II, the Texas Medical Center was a sleepy regional medical center. Over the next two decades, Dr. DeBakey was one of the key leaders who transformed the Medical Center into one of the largest and best medical centers in the world. Dr. DeBakey was the catalyst who established the culture within the Texas Medical Center of cutting-edge research, productive competition but also widespread collaboration, quality care for patients and good, old-fashioned hard work that attracted the best and brightest physicians, teachers and students from around the world to the Medical Center.

This massive importation of intellectual capital over the last 60 years of Dr. DeBakey’s life generated enormous wealth and benefits for Houston. Today, the medical facilities of the Texas Medical Center are the largest aggregate provider of jobs in the Houston area, even greater than the local jobs provided by the energy industry.

That’s quite a legacy in my book.

Incompetence Masquerading as Demagoguery

oil_drill_dollars.jpgUniversity of Houston finance professor Craig Pirrong (blog here) does a nice job in this Wall $treet Journal op-ed on Friday of explaining how speculation in oil and gas markets helps all of us deal with rising energy prices:

Restricting these speculators won’t reduce the price of oil — but they are likely to make consumers and investors worse off. Futures and swap markets facilitate the efficient management of price risks, and speculators are an important part of that process.

For instance, a producer of oil may want to lock in the price at which he sells his oil in the coming months in order to hedge against fluctuations in its price. He can do so by selling a futures contract at the prevailing market price. Similarly, an airline can protect itself against price increases next summer by buying today a futures contract that locks in a purchase price for next July.

Producers and consumers who want to “hedge” in this fashion cannot wave a magic wand to make the price risks they face disappear. The oil producer has to find somebody to sell to, and the airline must find somebody to buy from — and that somebody is often a speculator. Restricting speculation would increase the costs that producers, consumers (such as airlines), and marketers (such as heating-oil dealers) pay to manage their price risks by reducing the number of traders able to absorb the risks they want to shed.

These higher risk management costs would result in higher prices at the pump or the airline ticket counter for consumers, and less investment in new productive capacity — which would keep prices high into the future.Participation in these oil markets by pension funds and other investors .  .  . is also not a problem.

By adding commodity futures to their portfolios, i.e., by diversifying, these investors can reduce their risks without sacrificing returns, and without impacting physical inventories (or prices). Consumers are the ultimate winners when risks are borne as efficiently as possible in these markets.

The unprecedented run-up in oil prices is painful for consumers around the world. But the focus on speculation is misguided, and represents a convenient distraction from an understanding of the real, underlying causes of high oil prices — most notably continuing demand growth in the face of stagnant production, supply disruptions and the weakening dollar.More restrictions and regulations of energy markets, in the vain belief that such actions will bring price relief, are counterproductive. They will make the energy markets less efficient, rather than more so.

One really need look no further than the most profitable U.S. airline — Southwest — to understand how robust speculation in energy markets benefits a company’s employees, its investors and its customers.

However, apparently the CEO of a far less profitable airline — Craig Steenland of chronically unprofitable Northwest Airlines — has not noticed how beneficial futures markets can be for his company and its customers. He is busy lobbying Congress to enact strict regulations against precisely the type of markets that Southwest Airlines has used to beat Northwest’s performance like a drum over the past five years:

The battered airline industry took its concerns about rising fuel costs to Capitol Hill Monday, urging Congress to address widespread speculation in the energy markets.Making the case for the industry was Northwest Airlines CEO Doug Steenland, who argued that energy market speculators have pushed oil prices to unprecedented levels and harmed the airlines that saw some recovery in 2007.

[.  .  .]”I cannot overstate the importance to my company and the entire U.S. airline industry of immediate congressional action to halt excessive speculation in oil futures markets,” Steenland said.

Specifically, Steenland sought more regulatory power for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a prohibition on pension funds from investing in energy commodities and law changes that would remove loopholes and increase oversight of speculators.

Jeff Matthews sums up the absurdity of Steenland’s witch hunt on the energy speculators perfectly:

Remember what I said about Mr. Steenland being named CEO of Northwest in October, 2004?

Northwest Airlines did not start hedging its jet fuel needs until 2008.

That’s right.

Unlike, say, Southwest, which hedged most of its jet fuel needs when prices were low, Northwest didn’t bother until oil had spiked to $100 a barrel. [.  .  .]

Of course, when a big corporate CEO like Mr. Steenland makes a gross error of judgment like not hedging his single biggest cost of doing business, he naturally takes full responsibility and ask shareholders and customers for forgiveness.

We’re kidding!

He blames speculators instead .  .  .

Northwest emerged from Chapter 11 in May 2007. Northwest equity holders got nothing. Mr. Steenland got a package worth $26.6 million at the time.

Too bad Northwest didn’t use some of that $26.6 million to hedge itself.

I guess the only thing to do now that it’s too late to do anything useful is…blame speculators.

Yep, that’s the ticket…for an airline that doesn’t know much about hedging, anyway.

I rest my case.

An Enron "hero" is looking for work?

Sherron-WatkinsThis JoAnn Greco/Portfolio.com article bemoans that “famed Enron whistleblower” Sherron Watkins is having a hard time finding a job. Those dastardly employers just don’t trust honest employees such as Watkins, now do they?

On the other hand, perhaps the reason that Watkins can’t find a job is that prospective employers do more research than Ms. Greco bothered to do for her article and discover that Watkins wasn’t really a whistleblower even though she disingenuously presented herself to Congress, the mainstream media and the public as one.

Which Starbucks stores are closing?

Two starbucks When Starbucks announced last week that it is closing 600 stores and laying off 12,000 employees, the company did not disclose which stores would be shuttered (got to get those lease buyouts finalized). However, that hasn’t stopped word from filtering out into the Web on the location of the shuttered stores. The Seattle Times has already generated this Google map containing a large number of the anticipated store closings.


View Larger Map

However, the question that is on most Houstonians’ minds has not been answered. Will Lewis Black’s "End of the Universe" cease to exist after Starbucks is finished closing stores?

This clip includes video of the two stores as Black comments on the end of the universe on The Daily Show (H/T Life is a Thrill):

Update: Here is the full list of the stores that will be closing.

The NFL confronts the Mismatch Problem

biopic The pathological way in which National Football League teams annually evaluate college football players has been a common topic on this blog. So, I thoroughly enjoyed this New Yorker video (H/T Guy Kawasaki) of a recent talk by Clear Thinkers favorite Malcolm Gladwell in which he uses the NFL’s new-player evaluation process as an example of a hiring practice that is undermined by the "mismatch problem" — that is, the tendency of an employer to cling to outmoded employee evaluation variables despite the fast-changing nature of the employer’s jobs.

Gladwell’s point is that the nature and demands of jobs in American society are becoming increasingly complex. That complexity, in turn, drives employers to desire more certainty in making the right employment decision. However, in striving for that certainty, many employers continue to measure the wrong variables in evaluating prospects and finalizing their employment decisions. Gladwell is currently studying the mismatch problem and has some initial observations on how employers can minimize its effects. Check out his talk.

The latest Enron book

msalter Harvard Business School issued this press release and interview yesterday of Malcolm S. Salter, the Harvard professor who has written the latest book — Innovation Corrupted: The Origins and Legacy of Enron’s Collapse (Harvard University Press) — in what seems to be a continuing stream on the demise of Enron. From the looks of it, Professor Salter has figured out that the recent collapse of Bear Stearns is a good hook for his book:

Q: Can an Enron-type calamity happen again? Why or why not?

A: Perverse incentives are legion throughout our system today. For example, perverse incentives for both mortgage brokers and investment bankers helped create the subprime crisis that we are now living through. Many boards are also still struggling to improve their oversight. Preventing future Enron-type disasters will require the kind of attention to board oversight, financial incentives, and ethical discipline that I address in Innovation Corrupted.

You don’t say?

Interestingly, Professor Salter notes that Enron’s collapse was triggered by its third-quarter 2001 charge against earnings and equity write-down, which were relatively small in comparison to the losses, charges and write-downs that Wall Street firms have endured over the past year during the sub-prime meltdown:

In the third week of October 2001, Arthur Andersen, Enron’s highly compromised outside auditor, "discovered" several large accounting irregularities related to the off-balance-sheet partnerships. This forced Lay—who returned as CEO after Skilling resigned that August—to announce a $544 million charge against earnings, and a $1.2 billion write-down in shareholders’ equity, largely related to the impending closure of Enron’s Raptor partnerships. Within weeks, Enron collapsed into bankruptcy as its trading partners quickly lost faith—proving, once again, that even a hint of negligence or misconduct can be devastating to a company.

Ah, yes. That pesky trust-based business model.

American ingenuity

cirrus_the-jet_first-flight_07It’s not all bad news out there on the business front.

Over this past holiday weekend, Cirrus Design Corporation successfully completed the first 45-minute flight of the company’s innovative "The-Jet" (H/T James Fallows), which is a five-plus-two seat aircraft that many in the aviation industry believe is destined to ignite a revolution in general aviation. Aimed at the market of owner-pilots, The-Jet is simple to fly and includes an efficient single-jet operation in an aircraft that is more flexible than larger and far more expensive aircraft. AVWeb has more pictures of The-Jet’s first flight here.

Ready to hail that air taxi yet?

An excellent primer for the political season

New Picture The Heritage Foundation provides this outstanding series of charts (example to the left) reflecting various issues relating to federal revenue and spending.
Recommended reading before listening to any candidate during the upcoming political campaigns.

CNET visits the JSC

lunar rover CNET’s Road Trip 2008 blog visits the Johnson Space Center in the Clear Lake area of Houston (photos here). The article and accompanying photos are a good primer for the always interesting visit to the JSC.