Stros continue incredible roll

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Brandon Backe hit his first Major League yak and allowed only one run in seven innings to keep the Stros in the thick of the National League wild-card chase with an 11-5 rout of the Reds at the Juice Box on Monday afternoon.
The Stros have now won 10 straight games, 12 of their last 13, 18 of their last 21, and now are only 1 1/2 games behind the Cubs and Giants for the National League Wild Card playoff spot. The Stros have also won six straight against the Reds while outscoring them 54-16 in those games.
Making only his fourth career start, Backe (3-2) virtually shut down the Reds after giving up three hits and a run-scoring single in the first inning. He gave up only four singles and a walk from that point on, and finished with a career-high eight strikeouts. Backe’s unlikely two-run yak prompted a stancing ovation from the Juice Box crowd of 40,581 that did not cease until Backe re-emerged from the dugout to take a bow.
Bags, Berkman and JK also cranked taters for the Stros, who peppered the horrendous Reds pitching for 12 hits. The Stros have averaged nearly 10 runs a game during their streak.
If Roy O can get take a break from a new baby watch, then he will pitch the Tuesday night game against the Reds with the Rocket following in Wednesday afternoon’s Businessman’s Special. After the Reds close the homestand, the Stros travel to Pittsburgh and St. Louis for a key six game road trip as the Wild Card race approaches the home stretch.

Stros are officially unconscious

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After creating the go ahead run in Saturday night’s game, Mike Lamb went nuclear on the Pirates on Sunday afternoon at the Juice Box in leading the Stros to their ninth straight win, 10-5.
The Stros have now won 11 of their last 12 games, 17 of their last 20, and now are only 1 1/2 games behind the hurricane idled Cubs for the National League Wild Card playoff spot. The Stros have also won 10 of their last 11 games against the Pirates and 19 of 21.
Lamb went 4-for-5 with a yak and four RBIs. Carlos Beltran added three hits as the Stros are now on their longest winning streak since the club won a franchise-record 12 straight from September 3-14, 1999. Pete Munro (4-5) allowed five runs and four hits in five innings to gain the win, as the suddenly steady Stros relief corps of Chad Qualls, Mike Gallo and Dan Wheeler finished up with four scoreless innings of relief.
What a difference twos weeks can make! Our periodic review of the Stros hitters’ runs created against average (“RCAA”) and the Stros pitchers’ runs saved against average (“RSAA” and RCAA explained here) reflects the Stros’ incredible surge over the past two weeks into a legitimate contender for the the National League Wild Card playoff spot. Here were the Stros hitters’ RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins, as of Sunday, August 22:
Lance Berkman 45
Carlos Beltran 12
Mike Lamb 6
Jeff Bagwell 5
Craig Biggio 5
Eric Bruntlett 2
Chris Burke -1
Jeff Kent -1
Jason Lane -2
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Richard Hidalgo -9
Jose Vizcaino -9
Morgan Ensberg -12
Adam Everett -12
Raul Chavez -14
Brad Ausmus -23
As of August 21, the Stros were 10th out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA and had generated 11 fewer runs than an average National League team would have generated up to that date in the season. Compare that with the following, which are the updated RCAA of the Stros hitters as of September 4:
Lance Berkman 58
Carlos Beltran 23
Jeff Bagwell 15
Craig Biggio 11
Mike Lamb 9
Jeff Kent 3
Eric Bruntlett 2
Chris Burke -1
Jason Lane -3
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Jose Vizcaino -5
Morgan Ensberg -9
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -11
Raul Chavez -16
Brad Ausmus -21
In just two weeks, the Stros have jumped from 10th to 6th out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA and have now generated 43 more runs than an average National League team would have generated through September 4 this season.
I’m sure it has happened before, but frankly, I cannot recall a club going from a negative 11 RCAA to a positive 43 RCAA in a two week period. This is truly a streak for the ages.
The individual players’ improvement has been equally incredible. Bags has tripled his RCAA over the past two weeks and now is within shouting distance of equaling his performance from last season. Beltran and Bidg have doubled their RCAA, and Beltran’s combined RCAA from the Royals and the Stros would be a lofty 40. Moreover, Kent, Viz and Ensberg all have chipped in with substantial improvement in their respective RCAA figure, and even the woeful Ausmus has chipped in with a 10% improvement. Finally, Berkman continues to have one of the best seasons of any National League hitter as his 58 RCAA currently places him fifth among NL hitters, behind only Bonds, Edmonds, Pujols, and Helton.
As I noted several times throughout the season, it was going to take the type of improvement in RCAA that we have seen from the Stros over the past two weeks for the Stros to get back in the playoff hunt. I did not think they could do it, but the Stros have proven me wrong. You have to respect the heart of this club.
Meanwhile, the RSAA of the Stros’ pitchers has held reasonably steady during the Stros hitters’ streak, and that has been good enough. After topping out about a month ago in 3rd among the 16 National League pitching staffs in RSAA, the Stros’ pitching staff remains in fifth place now, but still have given up 28 fewer runs than an average NL pitching staff. Here are the individual RSAA of each Stros pitcher:
Roger Clemens 22
Brad Lidge 21
Roy Oswalt 18
Wade Miller 10
Octavio Dotel 5
Darren Oliver 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Dan Miceli 2
Russ Springer 2
Dan Wheeler 2
Brandon Backe -2
Chad Qualls -2
David Weathers -2
Mike Gallo -3
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -4
Chad Harville -4
Pete Munro -5
Jared Fernandez -6
Carlos Hernandez -6
Brandon Duckworth -9
Tim Redding -14
Clemens, Oswalt and Lidge continue to have outstanding seasons, and the rest of the Stros bullpen meanders between slightly above and slightly below average. The negative 6 RSAA of Hernandez is a concern, but Backe‘s strong performances in three of his first four starts have been a pleasant surprise. The bottom line is that the Stros staff continues to be a well above average staff this season.
So, what do the Stros need to win the National League Wild Card playoff spot? Well, it is highly unlikely that they are going to continue hitting at the pace that they have over the past two weeks, although the upcoming series with the Reds’ abdominable pitching staff should help the hitters prolong their streak for awhile further. But I think its reasonable to expect Berkman and Beltran to continue their outstanding hitting, and that Bags and Lamb can continue to improve slightly throughout the remainder of the season. So long as Bidg and and the remainder of the hitters remain steady or improve slightly, and the pitchers hold steady or increase their RSAA just slightly, the Stros actually have a decent shot — although not great — at overtaking the Cubs for the National League Wild Card playoff spot. The Cubs pitching staff continues to be much stronger than the Stros, but the Cubs hitters have declined dramatically over the past month and that downturn could undermine them as the race comes down to the final weeks.
But the fact that the Stros are in the race at all, after being virtually out of the race a little over two weeks ago, is one of the more remarkable stories of this Major League Baseball season.
Brandon Backe takes the hill for the Stros in the Labor Day afternoon game at the Juice Box against the Reds, whose woeful pitching staff comes in to this series having given up 160 more runs than an average National League pitching staff would have surrendered up to this date in the season. That’s some seriously bad pitching, folks.

Houston Texans, Year Three

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Lest you think that the only baseball and the Stros are the only sports subjects addressed on this blog, we bring you a review of the first weekend of college football. I generally ignore football until the National Football League pre-season games are concluded because they combine all the tedium and meaningless nature of baseball’s spring training games without the charm.
The Texas Longhorns pounded North Texas in their first game, but the Chronicle provides Oklahoma some little needed bulletin board material as columnist Richard Justice predicts a UT victory already in the annual Texas-OU game. Given UT’s futility with Oklahoma over the past several seasons, can’t everyone just shut up about Texas-OU until the game is played?
Meanwhile, things are not going well with the transition from the R.C. Slocum era to the Dennis Franchione era at football-obsessed Texas A&M. After putting up a 4-8 mark in his first season last year, Coach Fran’s crew allowed Utah to cream them this past Thursday night on ESPN’s nationally televised game. That went over like the proverbial turd in the punch bowl in College Station, and Texas’ best sportswriter — the Chronicle’s Mickey Herskowitz — is not impressed with some of the contrived efforts of Coach Fran:

If you had played as poorly as the Texas A&M Aggies did against Utah, wouldn’t you be glad not to have the names on the back of your uniforms?
This was one of the many questions that emerged from the ashes of A&M’s 41-21 loss in its opener on national television.
Coach Dennis Franchione removed the names to make a point about playing as a team.
Sadly, the Aggies missed the point, along with a boatload of passes, tackles and blocks.
So the ploy did not work. In the best interest of Aggie survival, we implore coach Fran: please, please, give them back their names.
This isn’t the 1970s, when a few teams still thought that identifying the players might cut into their program sales.
The blank space on the back of the A&M jerseys seemed to merely reinforce the feeling that the Aggies didn’t know who they were or what they were doing in Salt Lake City.
They appeared not to know where the football was, which can cost a team dearly and did. The Aggies had the Utes backed up to their own 10, and you saw at the start they had no intention of trying to blitz or put pressure on the quarterback, Alex Smith.
So right there, Smith hit a pass for 12 yards. Going without a huddle, he connected with Steve Savoy on a short pass that the receiver turned into a 78-yard touchdown.
Just like that, the Aggies were doomed.

Moving on to the Houston Texans, the local media, which generally fawns over the Texans, has its usual puff pieces as the team prepares for the opening of its third National Football League season. As a grizzled veteran of observing football at all levels, I am skeptical that the media’s optimism is justified.
The Texans have a great owner in Bob McNair, but after that, all I see are question marks. The defense — which is the foundation upon which solid NFL teams are built — was awful last season and the Texans still do not have the potentially dominant defensive front that is essential to a top flight NFL defense.
Moreover, on the offensive side, the left side of the offensive line is inexperienced and quarterback David Carr, coming into his third season, has shown little (admittedly, on undermanned teams) to indicate that he is a top tier NFL quarterback. Finally, Coach Dom Capers is a capable NFL coach, but my sense is that he is defensive coordinator masquerading as a head coach. Accordingly, I do not believe that the Texans will break out into a playoff caliber NFL team under him.
But Mr. McNair is a great guy and deserves a winner, so I hope I’m wrong on my forecast for the team.
Finally, the best game of the first weekend will take place this afternoon in Houston at Reliant Stadium, where the University of Houston and Rice tangle in their annual game for the Bayou Bucket Trophy. The Cougars hung a 48-14 pounding on the Owls last season, so the Owls will be primed to make this one a more competitive affair. The Coogs are a 3 1/2 point favorite in the 4 p.m. kickoff at Reliant.

Stros storm on

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Mike Lamb hit the go-ahead RBI double in the seventh inning and strong relief pitching propelled the Stros to extend their season-high winning streak to eight games with a 6-5 victory over the Pirates on Saturday night at the Juice Box. The Stros have now won 10 of their last 11 gaves and 16 out of their last 19 to pull within two games of the Cubs in the race for the National League Wild Card playooff spot.
Houston starter Carlos Hernandez struggled through three innings, giving up four earned runs on four hits, including Jason Bay‘s three run yak. However, Kirk Bullinger, Chad Harville, Chad Qualls, Russ Springer, and Brad Lidge gave up just one more run the rest of the way to secure the win. Lidge pitched the ninth for his 20th save in 23 opportunities.
The Stros’ Pete Munro tries to keep the momentum going in Sunday’s matinee against Baylor-ex Kip Wells. The Reds come to the Juice Box on Monday to provide more batting practice for the Stros’ hitters during a three game set.

Observations on Bush’s convention speech

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Arnold Kling has this excellent analysis of President Bush’s acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.
And Professor Maule has some insightful comments on the President’s proposals regarding income tax simplification.
Sigh.

Cantor Fitzgerald sues Saudi Arabia

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New York-based bond trading firm Cantor Fitzgerald Securities, which lost two-thirds of its workers in the World Trade Center attack of September 11, 2001, has sued Saudi Arabia and dozens of other defendants — including numerous banks and Islamic charities — in U.S. District Court in New York for a mere $7 billion for allegedly supporting al Qaeda before the attack through financing, safe houses, weapons and money laundering.
Saudi Arabia is the birthplace of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and 15 of the 19 Sept. 11 hijackers.
The lawsuit involves many of the same defendants, transactions, events and questions of law as an earlier $300 billion lawsuit that various insurance companies have brought against Saudi Arabia, terrorist groups, companies and other countries supporting terrorism. That lawsuit is still pending.
The Cantor Fitzgerald lawsuit takes dead aim at Saudi Arabia, saying the kingdom “knew and intended that these Saudi-based charity and relief organization defendants would provide financial and material support and substantial assistance to al Qaeda.” The lawsuit alleges that Saudi Arabia engaged in a pattern of racketeering as it participated directly and indirectly in al Qaeda’s work through funding and controllings its “alter-ego” charities and relief organizations. In addition, Cantor Fitzgerald alleges that Saudi Arabia materially supported al Qaeda by helping to raise money for it, by intentionally employing al Qaeda operatives, by laundering its money and by providing al Qaeda with safe houses, false documents and ways to obtain weapons and military equipment.
Interestingly, the U.S. federal government has generally opposed this type of lawsuit on the grounds that it interferes with the government’s exclusive power to conduct foreign policy. No word yet on the government’s stance toward the Cantor Fitzgerald lawsuit.

Stros remain smokin’

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Jeff Bagwell, Carlos Beltran, Craig Biggio and Jose Vizcaino homered and the Rocket won his 325th career win as the Stros beat the Pirates in the first game of their weekend series at the Juice Box, 8-6.
The Stros are in the midst of a major winning trend. They have now won seven straight, 15 of their last 18 games, and 10 of their last 11. They have closed to within 2Ω games of the Hurricane Frances-idled Cubs, who are the leader in the race for the NL wild-card playoff spot.
Clemens (15-4) won his third straight start, and moved into sole possession of 12th place on the career wins list. He took a 7-0 lead into the seventh inning but tired and wound up allowing four runs and six hits in 6 2/3 innings. The Rocket even added an run-scoring single in the sixth for his seventh RBI of the season. Dan Wheeler pitched a perfect eighth and Brad Lidge worked the ninth for his 19th save in 22 chances.
By the way, General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, threw out the ceremonial first pitch as part of the Astros’ Military Appreciation Night. Turns out that General Myers is a former high school classmate Alan Hendricks, who represents Clemens along with his brother, Randy.
Carlos Hernandez takes the pill in Saturday night’s game against the Pirates Josh Fogg as the Stros attempt to pull within two games of the still idle Cubs.

A separate crime for reckless sex?

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Ian Ayres of Yale Law School and Katherine K. Baker of the Illinois Institute of Technology have posted this rather interesting article on SSRN, which is described in the following abstract:

This article attempts to make progress on both the problems of sexually transmitted disease and acquaintance rape by proposing a new crime of reckless sexual conduct. A defendant would be guilty of reckless sexual conduct if, in a first sexual encounter with another particular person, the defendant had sexual intercourse without using a condom. Consent to unprotected intercourse would be an affirmative defense, to be established by the defendant with a preponderance of the evidence. As an empirical matter, first-encounter unprotected sex greatly increases the epidemiological force of sexually transmitted disease and a substantial proportion of acquaintance rape occurs in unprotected first encounters.
The new law, by increasing condom use and the quality of communication in first sexual encounters, can reduce the spread of sexually transmitted disease and decrease the incidence of acquaintance rape.

Merrill Lynch invests in energy trading business

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This NY Times article reports that Merrill Lynch & Co. jumped back into the energy-trading business with an agreement to buy Entergy-Koch, LP — the Houston-based joint-venture trading unit of Entergy Corp. and closely held Koch Industries — for an undisclosed sum.
Merrill is acquiring a trading staff of about 300 people in Houston and London who primarily buy and sell contracts for electricity, natural gas and weather products. Entergy-Koch valued the business unit at approximately $2 billion.
Merrill’s move back into energy trading highlights the emerging role of Wall Street firms with strong credit ratings in the energy trading industry, which was devastated following the demise of Enron Corp.’s dominant online trading business in late 2001. Merrill joins several Wall Street firms that have recently bought substantial trading operations, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley. Generally, the firms are betting on opportunities that recent volatility in energy prices present, such as big energy users hedging their risk on energy prices. Moreover, the energy books often allow the owners to pick up distressed energy-related assets — such as power plants and pipelines — at bargain prices. Those assets can form the basis of hard assets around which energy traders can sell products.

Enron’s feed trough

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The Wall Street Journal ($) is reporting that Stephen F. Cooper, the independent chief executive officer of Enron Corp. during its chapter 11 case, is preparing to request approval of a $25 million bonus for his and his firm’s (Kroll Zolfo Cooper, a unit of Marsh & McLennan Cos.) work in connection with Enron’s nearly three year old reorganization. The request is in addition to $63.4 million in fees that Mr. Cooper and his firm have already collected from Enron during the chapter 11 case.
Not bad work if you can get it.
Enron’s Chapter 11 disclosure statement estimates that fees to all of the bankruptcy professionals involved in the Enron chapter 11 case will eventually reach nearly $1 billion. Although arguably outrageous, the amount needs to be kept in perspective. Enron’s reorganization plan is a “going concern” liquidation plan that the company believes will generate about $12 billion for distribution to creditors. That translates to a recovery of about 17 cents on the dollar for the largest group of creditors holding unsecured claims. If Enron had simply liquidated immediately after filing bankruptcy, the company estimates that the amount available for distribution to creditors would have likely have been only about $6 billion. So, the reorganization professionals have been at least partly responsible for preserving value for creditors.
But that’s still some serious scratch.