After creating the go ahead run in Saturday night’s game, Mike Lamb went nuclear on the Pirates on Sunday afternoon at the Juice Box in leading the Stros to their ninth straight win, 10-5.
The Stros have now won 11 of their last 12 games, 17 of their last 20, and now are only 1 1/2 games behind the hurricane idled Cubs for the National League Wild Card playoff spot. The Stros have also won 10 of their last 11 games against the Pirates and 19 of 21.
Lamb went 4-for-5 with a yak and four RBIs. Carlos Beltran added three hits as the Stros are now on their longest winning streak since the club won a franchise-record 12 straight from September 3-14, 1999. Pete Munro (4-5) allowed five runs and four hits in five innings to gain the win, as the suddenly steady Stros relief corps of Chad Qualls, Mike Gallo and Dan Wheeler finished up with four scoreless innings of relief.
What a difference twos weeks can make! Our periodic review of the Stros hitters’ runs created against average (“RCAA”) and the Stros pitchers’ runs saved against average (“RSAA” and RCAA explained here) reflects the Stros’ incredible surge over the past two weeks into a legitimate contender for the the National League Wild Card playoff spot. Here were the Stros hitters’ RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins, as of Sunday, August 22:
Lance Berkman 45
Carlos Beltran 12
Mike Lamb 6
Jeff Bagwell 5
Craig Biggio 5
Eric Bruntlett 2
Chris Burke -1
Jeff Kent -1
Jason Lane -2
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Richard Hidalgo -9
Jose Vizcaino -9
Morgan Ensberg -12
Adam Everett -12
Raul Chavez -14
Brad Ausmus -23
As of August 21, the Stros were 10th out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA and had generated 11 fewer runs than an average National League team would have generated up to that date in the season. Compare that with the following, which are the updated RCAA of the Stros hitters as of September 4:
Lance Berkman 58
Carlos Beltran 23
Jeff Bagwell 15
Craig Biggio 11
Mike Lamb 9
Jeff Kent 3
Eric Bruntlett 2
Chris Burke -1
Jason Lane -3
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Jose Vizcaino -5
Morgan Ensberg -9
Richard Hidalgo -9
Adam Everett -11
Raul Chavez -16
Brad Ausmus -21
In just two weeks, the Stros have jumped from 10th to 6th out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA and have now generated 43 more runs than an average National League team would have generated through September 4 this season.
I’m sure it has happened before, but frankly, I cannot recall a club going from a negative 11 RCAA to a positive 43 RCAA in a two week period. This is truly a streak for the ages.
The individual players’ improvement has been equally incredible. Bags has tripled his RCAA over the past two weeks and now is within shouting distance of equaling his performance from last season. Beltran and Bidg have doubled their RCAA, and Beltran’s combined RCAA from the Royals and the Stros would be a lofty 40. Moreover, Kent, Viz and Ensberg all have chipped in with substantial improvement in their respective RCAA figure, and even the woeful Ausmus has chipped in with a 10% improvement. Finally, Berkman continues to have one of the best seasons of any National League hitter as his 58 RCAA currently places him fifth among NL hitters, behind only Bonds, Edmonds, Pujols, and Helton.
As I noted several times throughout the season, it was going to take the type of improvement in RCAA that we have seen from the Stros over the past two weeks for the Stros to get back in the playoff hunt. I did not think they could do it, but the Stros have proven me wrong. You have to respect the heart of this club.
Meanwhile, the RSAA of the Stros’ pitchers has held reasonably steady during the Stros hitters’ streak, and that has been good enough. After topping out about a month ago in 3rd among the 16 National League pitching staffs in RSAA, the Stros’ pitching staff remains in fifth place now, but still have given up 28 fewer runs than an average NL pitching staff. Here are the individual RSAA of each Stros pitcher:
Roger Clemens 22
Brad Lidge 21
Roy Oswalt 18
Wade Miller 10
Octavio Dotel 5
Darren Oliver 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Dan Miceli 2
Russ Springer 2
Dan Wheeler 2
Brandon Backe -2
Chad Qualls -2
David Weathers -2
Mike Gallo -3
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Ricky Stone -3
Kirk Bullinger -4
Chad Harville -4
Pete Munro -5
Jared Fernandez -6
Carlos Hernandez -6
Brandon Duckworth -9
Tim Redding -14
Clemens, Oswalt and Lidge continue to have outstanding seasons, and the rest of the Stros bullpen meanders between slightly above and slightly below average. The negative 6 RSAA of Hernandez is a concern, but Backe‘s strong performances in three of his first four starts have been a pleasant surprise. The bottom line is that the Stros staff continues to be a well above average staff this season.
So, what do the Stros need to win the National League Wild Card playoff spot? Well, it is highly unlikely that they are going to continue hitting at the pace that they have over the past two weeks, although the upcoming series with the Reds’ abdominable pitching staff should help the hitters prolong their streak for awhile further. But I think its reasonable to expect Berkman and Beltran to continue their outstanding hitting, and that Bags and Lamb can continue to improve slightly throughout the remainder of the season. So long as Bidg and and the remainder of the hitters remain steady or improve slightly, and the pitchers hold steady or increase their RSAA just slightly, the Stros actually have a decent shot — although not great — at overtaking the Cubs for the National League Wild Card playoff spot. The Cubs pitching staff continues to be much stronger than the Stros, but the Cubs hitters have declined dramatically over the past month and that downturn could undermine them as the race comes down to the final weeks.
But the fact that the Stros are in the race at all, after being virtually out of the race a little over two weeks ago, is one of the more remarkable stories of this Major League Baseball season.
Brandon Backe takes the hill for the Stros in the Labor Day afternoon game at the Juice Box against the Reds, whose woeful pitching staff comes in to this series having given up 160 more runs than an average National League pitching staff would have surrendered up to this date in the season. That’s some seriously bad pitching, folks.