A new Hyatt Hill Country Resort in Austin

One of the favorite resorts of Texas families is the Hyatt Hill Country Resort in San Antonio.
Now it appears that another Hyatt resort project between Austin and Bastrop will become a reality. Dallas-based Woodbine Development Corp. has closed a $74.3 million construction and permanent loan with Prudential Mortgage Capital for the construction of the $135 million Hyatt project.
The resort will be located on 656 acres of Bastrop County land that Woodbine bought from the Lower Colorado River Authority in March. The resort site, which adjoins LCRA’s 1,110-acre McKinney Roughs Nature Park, will utilize 405 acres of this land, including one mile of Colorado River frontage. The remaining 251 acres are being reserved for future development.
The Hyatt site is 13 miles from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport. It will include a 500-room hotel, an 18-hole golf course, a manmade river pool, and hiking and equestrian trails.

Quattrone sentenced to 18 months in prison

Former CSFB Silicon Valley investment banker Frank Quattrone was sentenced to 18 months in prison for obstructing a probe of how IPO stocks were doled out. The sentencing follows his obstruction conviction in May, which was largely based on an e-mail he sent underlings that encouraged them to obey document-management procedures that prosecutors alleged would have destroyed evidence sought by investigators.
The punishment was well above federal guidelines, which called for no more than 16 months, and from a probation department recommendation of 10 months, half on supervised release.
Mr. Quattrone, who is 48, is the highest-profile Wall Street figure to face prison since junk-bond king Michael Milken was given a 10-year sentence (later reduced) for alleged securities-fraud violations nearly a decade ago.
In handing down the sentence, U.S. District Judge Richard Owen granted a prosecution request to lengthen Mr. Quattrone’s sentence to between 15 and 21 months on the grounds that he had committed perjury when he testified at his trial. The judge based his decision on Mr. Quattrone’s denial before the jury that he intended to obstruct investigations by the Securities and Exchange Commission and a federal grand jury. Mr. Quattrone’s attorneys argued that the alleged perjury was not proved before a jury. But Judge Owen ruled that it was clear to him that Mr. Quattrone’s denial that he intended to obstruct justice was not true and commented that Mr. Quattrone could have avoided the perjury issue by not taking the witness stand.
H’mm. A criminal defendant should not take the stand to defend himself from a criminal charges because he might commit another criminal offense that the judge will convict him of during sentencing without a trial? Let’s see how that proposition plays out on appeal.
At any rate, at least Judge Owen agreed to allow Mr. Quattrone to serve his time at the federal minimum-security prison camp in Lompoc, Calif. However, Judge Owen denied Mr. Quattrone’s request to remain free pending appeal and ordered him to surrender on October 28.
A jury convicted Mr. Quattrone in May of obstructing a government investigation into how CSFB allocated shares of hot IPO stocks. Prosecutors charged that Mr. Quattrone obstructed the investigation when he forwarded a single e-mail to his subordinates advising them to clean-up files per the bank’s document-management policies soon after he learned about the federal grand-jury investigation. A first trial last October ended in a hung jury.
Mr. Quattrone still faces a possible lifetime ban from the securities industry under charges pending against him by the National Association of Securities Dealers and the SEC. His former firm CSFB paid $100 million in 2002, without admitting wrongdoing, to settle charges that the SEC and NASD had brought against the firm.

TXU Utility charging rates based on creditworthiness

TXU Energy, the unregulated arm of Dallas-based TXU Corp., last month notified 185,000 of its Texas electricity customers that increases in natural-gas prices would require the company to adjust rates. But in a new rate-setting tactic for the electric-utilities industry, TXU Energy also plans to impose a bigger rate increase for its customers with the lowest credit scores based on numeric rankings of credit-worthiness that take into account a customer’s history of paying electricity, telephone and cable bills.
Predictably, consumer advocates are not pleased. “If they get away with this, others will follow,” said Randy Chapman, executive director of the Texas Legal Services Center, a legal-aid program that helped uncover TXU’s credit-scoring practice, which was reported by the Dallas Morning News. Another state-funded consumer advocate in Texas is reportedly preparing to file a formal complaint with the Texas Public Utility Commission asking it to issue an emergency order preventing TXU, which is both the biggest utility and biggest competitive supplier in the state, from implementing the rate changes.
Imagine the audacity of a company trying to take away the right of people who do not pay their bills timely to have people who do subsidize the cost of their tardiness.
The Texas electricity market was deregulated in 2002, allowing customers to jump from one provider to another where available. The new TXU pricing arrangement doesn’t affect customers that get service from TXU Corp. in its traditional territory in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Rates there continue to be regulated by the state during the transition from a fully regulated to a deregulated market.
Instead, the credit scoring has been applied to TXU Energy customers in portions of the state where TXU is seeking new customers. TXU Energy lured many of those customers away from utilities with the inducement of discounts.
The insurance industry has for years used credit scores as a tool to predict losses and help set premiums. A study prepared last year for the state of Texas by the Bureau of Business Research at the University of Texas in Austin found a correlation between insurance claims and low credit scores. Credit tools have been used by the electric industry to set deposits but haven’t been used to set actual rates. Traditionally, rates were based on the cost of furnishing service to broad customer classes, such as residential ratepayers.
However, under the federal Fair Credit Reporting Act, companies that use credit information as a basis of adverse decisions often are required to disclose that fact to consumers. It does not appear that TXU has complied with the Act, at least yet.
Many states that have deregulated their retail electricity markets still require incumbent utilities to offer rates that serve as a benchmark for prices offered by competing suppliers. But those government-mandated rates expire in Texas in 2007 for residential customers.
Under the TXU program, electricity rates will be raised for 185,000 customers, based on higher gas prices. But they will be raised most sharply for roughly 55,000 residential and small-business customers with poor credit scores. That’s about 30% of the accounts that TXU Energy now serves in competition with incumbent utilities.
Stay tuned as this football begins to be tossed around the political playing field.

Stros streak hits 12 as they take the lead for the NL Wild Card

Roger Clemens won his 326th career win as the Stros cranked four first-inning yaks to beat the Cincinnati Reds 5-2 Wednesday afternoon and tie a club record with their 12th straight win.
The Stros have now won 13 of their last 14 games, 20 of their last 23, and have, with the Cubs’ loss to the Expos, taken at least a share of the lead for the National League Wild Card playoff spot. The Stros have also won eight straight against the Reds while outscoring them 68-25 in those games.
Clemens (16-4) won his fourth straight start, allowing only four hits in seven innings. He gave up his only run in the first on a sacrifice fly, and the Reds could manage only three singles over Clemens’ next six innings. The Rocket finished with six strikeouts and two walks.
After three of the Stros AAA relief corps pitched in the eighth, Brad Lidge pitched the ninth to gain his 21st save in 24 chances. With runners at the corners and two outs, Lidge struck out Juan Castro to end the game as the Juice Box crowd went nuts.
After the Reds scored their only run off of Clemens in the top of the first, Bidg led off the bottom of the frame with his yak, then Bags and Berkman hammered back-to-back taters, JK walked, and Mike Lamb hit a two run round tripper for his third home run in the past three games. Although the Stros did not score again, they cranked out 11 hits against seven Reds’ pitchers.
So now its off to Pittsburgh for a twinbill tomorrow and then three more over the weekend before the club moves on to St. Louis for a three game series with the Cards early next week. Looks like Carlos Hernandez and either Tim Redding or Brandon Duckworth will get the starts in the doubleheader tomorrow. Bullpen, get ready.

U.S. Air prepares for chapter 22 filing

Inasmuch as its labor negotiations with the pilots’ union are not going well, the Washington Post reports that US Airways Group Inc. confirmed yesterday that it has retained the restructuring advisors Seabury Group and the Washington, D.C.-based law firm of Arnold & Porter LLP to provide restructuring advice for its upcoming chapter 22 filing (US Air filed its first chapter 11 case two years ago; thus, its second case is dubbed a chapter “22” in legal circles).
With few exceptions, the management of U.S. airlines has a desultory record in creating value for shareholders. Given that poor track record, you would think that management and creditors in these companies could at least reorganize the companies in a manner that gives the reorganized company a competitive advantage after coming out of chapter 11. However, as these chapter 22 and 33 reorganizations of airlines reflect, the parties involved in these airline reorganizations often cannot even reorganize the airline companies effectively.
Makes one wonder when some Bankruptcy Judge, in exasperation with it all, will decide that Professor Ribstein’s solution, at least in the most intractable cases, is the correct one?

The prospects for real Social Security reform

In his weekly Business World column today, the Wall Street Journal’s ($) Holman Jenkins, Jr. lays out the case that a second Bush Administration may be the one time that realistic reform of Social Security could actually take place:

People become inordinate risktakers to protect something they have. Once voters figure out the true extent of the entitlement morass, even those summering Nantucket editors might be expected to rush to the barricades and, whatever their cultural affinity, cast their vote for Mr. Bush for the simple reason that entitlement reform is inescapably a second-term activity.
. . . President John Kerry would be sure to lay back too while re-election sugarplums still danced in his head, and who’d want to bet on him to beat the Democratic curse and win a second term? If not, nine years would be the soonest reform could start, by which time another $18 trillion in unfunded retirement obligations would have piled up.
Nope, it’s Mr. Bush or bust. Congress is no help. Wonder why, in the dog days of August, GOP House Speaker Denny Hastert became a sudden convert to a flat tax? He was hoping to divert the Bush White House’s attention from Social Security reform. His members, facing re-election every two years, still believe that Social Security is an untouchable “third rail,” notwithstanding a few GOP thrillseekers who’ve lately done handsprings on the third rail and lived to tell the tale.
Democrats, of course, can be expected to resist ferociously, and for reasons going beyond mere sentimental attachment to the FDR/LBJ welfare state. Anything that turns the adult population into wealth holders would change voting behavior forever, and not to Terry McAuliffe’s advantage.
All this makes Mr. Bush’s apparent willingness to tackle entitlements a once-in-a-generation planetary alignment, not to be passed up by a society that cares about its future.

Mr. Jenkins goes on to explain the “creative” accounting that the federal government engages in to mask the true cost of its Social Security obligations:

[A]dvocates need to get busy helping the public master a peculiarity of federal accounting. To wit, promises made to bondholders show up in the national debt. Promises made to future retirees don’t.
Thus the officially recognized national debt is about $3.9 trillion, while the unfunded Social Security obligation alone represents an IOU of $10 trillion in present value. Throw Medicare onto the bonfire and that’s another $62 trillion.
Keep in mind these figures represent only the “unfunded” portion, not the part covered by monies already credited to notional federal trust funds or to be collected in payroll taxes from now till eternity. It would take $3.9 trillion today to retire the visible national debt, and $72 trillion today to pay off unfunded promises to retirees. Yet only the first debt is reported to voters. That’s the kind of accounting “oversight” that, in the private sector, leads straight to a cellblock.

That makes Enron’s shifting of a mere $40 billion of debt into off balance sheet transactions look rather trivial, doesn’t it? And why are these huge hidden costs important to understand? Mr. Jenkins answers:

Because suddenly the $1 trillion in “transition costs” to finance the creation of the Bush-touted private retirement accounts for younger workers doesn’t seem so outlandish compared to the real federal debt, visible and invisible.

Interestingly, Mr. Jenkins then focuses on the main impediment to true Social Security reform — risk aversion:

Unreasoning risk aversion is a hallmark of the human mind, and Democrats and their pet economists are already doing all they can to encourage the stand-pattism of certain voting blocs, especially single women and oldsters. John Kerry never tires of frightening these voters with the Satans of Wall Street and Ken Lay. He says instead a “tweak here, tweak there” will tide Social Security over without any “risky” reforms.
Here we must summon the heavy guns of “behavioral economics,” whose adherents have been winning Nobel Prizes lately. Their most firmly established insight is that real people, as opposed to the rational maximizers of the economic texts, suffer from an excess of caution. “Prospect theory,” pioneered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, shows that people overvalue their fear of loss and undervalue the prospect of gain, leaving themselves worse off than they would be if they were willing to entertain reasonable risks.

I agree with Mr. Jenkins that real Social Security reform is more likely in a second Bush Administration than in a Kerry Administration. But given the Bush Administration’s aversion to balanced policy analysis, I question whether there is really much of a prospect for reform even in a second Bush Administration. I guess we can dream, can’t we?

AIM and Invesco settle favored investor trading charges

Affiliated mutual-fund companies Invesco Funds Group Inc. and Houston-based AIM Investments reached a tentative $450 million settlement with federal and state regulators of allegations that they allowed favored investors to trade rapidly in their funds at the expense of long-term shareholders. The firms are both units of Amvescap PLC of London.
Under the deal, Invesco and AIM agreed to pay a combined $375 million in penalties and restitution to settle with the Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. They also agreed to reduce mutual-fund fees charged to investors by $75 million over the next five years. In a separate deal with Colorado regulators, Invesco will pay an additional $1.5 million to cover attorneys fees and “investor education,” whateever that means. As usual in such settlements, neither firm admitted the civil fraud charges.
The Invesco-AIM settlement is one of the largest in the fund-trading scandal that has descended upon the huge mutual-fund industry over the past year. Only Bank of America Corp. agreed to pay more in fines and restitution, though Alliance Capital Management Holding LP agreed to a larger settlement if reduced fees are included in the settlement calculation.
The settlement pact also marks the first time regulators have linked AIM Investments to allegations of improper trading. The Houston firm was not charged late last year when regulators sued Denver-based Invesco and its former chief executive. But during the investigation, regulators discovered that AIM had at least 10 arrangements with select investors that allowed them to trade AIM funds rapidly (or “on market time,” as they say in the industry). Invesco and AIM, which merged to form Amvescap in 1997, merged their operations last year.
Market-timing isn’t illegal, but Invesco and other funds said in their prospectuses that they limited investors’ transactions. Market timing is designed to take advantage of discrepancies between a fund’s share price and the value of its underlying securities. The practice can raise expenses and reduce the profits of long-term fund investors.
Invesco’s tech-stock-heavy funds did well in the bustling 1990s, but fell hard during the resulting bear market. Investors in the Invesco and AIM funds have withdraw more money than they invested in each of the past three years. Through the first seven months of this year, net redemptions from the firms’ stock and bond funds totaled more than $8.3 billion.

Streakin’ Stros keep winning

Carlos Beltran cranked a triple and a mighty upper deck yak, Mike Lamb chipped in with another two run tater, and new Daddy Roy O hurled 7 2/3rd’s strong innings as the Stros continued their utterly incredible late season surge by pounding the Reds again at the Juice Box on Tuesday night, 9-7.
The Stros have now won 11 straight games, 13 of their last 14, 19 of their last 22, and now trail the Cubs by a half game in the National League Wild Card playoff race. The Stros have also won seven straight against the Reds while outscoring them 63-23 in those games.
The Stros again took extra batting practice on the pathetic Reds’ pitching staff, cranking out 11 hits for 23 total bases and enjoying 8 walks in between. Meanwhile, Roy O did his usual number on the Reds, controlling the game efficiently until he left with two outs and two on in the eighth. Springer‘s three run gopher ball after relieving Oswalt and Lidge‘s uncharacteristic two run gophie in the ninth made the score of the game closer than it really was.
The Rocket goes for the Stros 12th straight and his 16th win of the season in Wednesday afternoon’s Businessman’s Special before the Stros take off for a six game swing through Pittsburgh and St. Louis. Right now, this club will not even need an aircraft to fly into those cities.

Matt Simmons on oil supplies

Matthew Simmons is the chief executive officer of Simmons & Co. International, which is a Houston-based investment bank that specializes in investment in oilfield service and related companies. Mr. Simmons is one of Houston’s most knowledgeable experts on the oil and gas industry, and in this Chronicle interview, challenges the conventional wisdom that the recent spike in oil and gas prices is temporary:

Q: What do the fundamentals [of oil production and consumption] look like? Are supply and demand out of whack?
A: The fundamentals, to me, look scarier than hell. Demand … is having the smell of a runaway train, downhill on a one-way track. The consensus forecast for 2004 fourth-quarter demand is 83.6 million barrels a day, an increase of over 2 million from where we are this summer. And if you look at the consensus for the fourth quarter of 2005, demand is 85.6 million barrels a day, another 2 million increase from the fourth quarter.
Q: What about supplies?
A: There are very few companies that are showing any ability to grow their global oil supplies by more than 1 or 2 percent a year. If you take all the announced projects of any significance, and if they all come on and peak in the first year, they account for ? at best ? 6 to 8 million a day of fresh supply by 2009. And we just talked about needing 4 of that over the next 14 months.
The missing piece of data in this tight equation is the rate of decline of the existing base. Over 70 percent of the current output is coming from fields that were discovered, at their most recent, 30 years ago. If the global decline rate is only 3 percent per annum, then we lose 11 million barrels by 2009 and add 6 to 8. I don’t see how we balance this market, unless we have a stunning depression.

And Mr. Simmons has always been skeptical about Saudi Arabia’s claims that it owns a quarter of the world’s reserves and can simply increase production to meet rising world demand:

Q: Most analysts accept Saudi Arabia’s claims that it holds about a quarter of the world’s oil reserves. You have challenged the Saudis over their reserve estimates?
A: The grim fact about Saudi Arabia today is that, at the Saudis’ own admission, the Ghawar Field, the king of all kings, is still producing about 5 million of their 8 to 9 million barrels a day of oil. That’s all you need to know to be scared.

Here is a more extensive interview with Mr. Simmons. These are well-supported views of a formidable expert in the oil and gas industry. Take note.
Meanwhile, this Wall Street Journal ($) article reports that the prominent energy-stock analysts John S. Herold Inc. has issued a report contending that Exxon Mobil is overvalued when compared with a group of smaller energy companies that collectively mirrors the capitalization of the energy giant. The Herold report lumped the group of smaller energy companies into a single theoretical stock called “Synthetic Exxon Mobil,” or “SXOM.” Designed to resemble Exxon Mobil both in market capitalization and operational scope, SXOM includes six companies that, during the past three years, would have have generated a 31% return on investment. In comparison, an investment in Exxon Mobil would have yielded just 12%. The report tends to support the notion that the recent spike in energy prices is making the less-expensive stocks of more-aggressive energy companies look better than the more established giants.

The saga of David Duval and a few other golf notes

A few notable developments from the wonderful world of golf:
Vijay Singh finished his long climb to overtake Tiger Woods as the world’s top golfer as he beat Woods in a head-to-head matchup on Monday to win the Deutsche Bank Championship by three strokes and become the new the top-ranked player in the world. The victory was Singh’s sixth victory of the year and was enough finally to vault Singh over Woods as the number one golfer in the World Golf computer ratings.
Woods had been No. 1 for more than five years — a record 264 consecutive weeks — in the rankings that consider performance over the past two years and factor in the strength of the field in each tournament. The new numbers released later Monday had Singh at 12.72 points to Woods’ 12.27, making Singh the first player other than Woods to hold the No. 1 ranking since Aug. 8, 1999, when David Duval was number one.
And what of Mr. Duval? Well, after a slide from the top of professional golf the likes of which had not been seen since the demise of Ian Baker Finch, Duval made the cut for the first time in 15 months in the Deutsche Bank Championship and finished tied for 13th for a payday of $93,750 — more than he has made in 24 events that he has entered in the past two years.
Duval is an interesting man. He lost his only brother to leukemia in his early teens after a bone marrow transplant with Duval as the donor failed, and the loss affected Duval and his family dramatically. Duval’s parents seperated and divorced, and Duval went into a shell in which he found his only outlet in the isolation of golf. He developed an idiosyncratic swing in which he offset a strong grip and a closed club face at the top of the backswing with an incredibly well timed blocking action through his downswing that allowed him to hit a long and accurate fade. He also developed an introverted personality that struck many as conceited.
A stellar player as a collegian, Duval quickly rose to the highest levels of professional golf after winning the 2001 British Open. However, Duval hurt his back, and the blocking action that Duval used in his downswing to offset his strong grip and closed clubface aggravated the injury. When Duval attempted to swing without the blocking action, he started duck hooking everything, which was the natural result of his strong grip and closed clubface. When he started attempting to correct the duck hook, he started blocking everything to the right.
From the pinnacle of his profession after the British Open victory in 2001, Duval fell to 80th on the PGA Tour money list in 2002 and things only got worse from there. Duval made only four cuts in 20 tournaments last year and finished 211th on the money list. As Duval’s golf world collapsed around him, many of his fellow Tour pros who had once considered him to be a conceited jerk saw that Duval was actually living a life of quiet desperation.
Earlier this year, Duval started to attempt to put his golf game back together again by retaining well-known golf teacher David Leadbetter. Duval’s finish this week in the Deutsche Bank Championship is an indication that Leadbetter’s instruction may be helping Duval. Most people who follow golf closely are hopeful that Duval can make it back to the top echelon of professional golf.
Finally, legendary golf swing savant Moe Norman died Saturday at the age of 75 from heart failure. Along with Ben Hogan, many in golf considered Norman to be among the best ball strikers ever.
Tour pros everywhere marveled at Norman’s unusual yet effective swing. He assumed a wide, stiff-kneed stance far from the ball and took the club back with barely any body rotation, and then swung through the ball, finishing with his hands high and in front of him. Norman’s method was the basis of the Natural Golf style, which has achieved a moderate following among amateur golfers over the past decade or so. However, no golfer other than Norman has won a professional tournament using the Natural Golf method.