Good karma for the Rose Bowl

darrell Royal_200_20.jpgAs Texans prepare for the long-awaited Rose Bowl matchup tonight between the Texas Longhorns and the USC Trojans, this Ray Buck/Ft. Worth Star Telegram article does a good job of telling how Longhorn coach Mack Brown’s relationship with legendary former Texas coach Darrell Royal has been an important part of Brown’s success in bringing UT back to the top tier of major college football.
As noted in this earlier post, Texas won two undisputed national championships under Coach Royal, one in 1963 and the other in 1969. But after Royal retired in 1975, the Longhorns got close in 1977 and 1983 and then gradually faded from the top tier of big-time college football. By the time Brown was hired seven seasons ago, the Horns were not even a national championship contender. The article contains a number of interesting observations from Coach Royal, not the least of which is the following:

When asked if his presence might be a source of motivation for the Longhorns, Royal had one more answer for everyone:

“If they need any kind of motivation,” Royal said, “they’re in the wrong game.”

Meanwhile, this interesting Alex Barra/W$J article on the development of big-time college football players over the past 20 years includes the following observation from Clear Thinkers favorites, Dan Jenkins:

“Comparing the best college teams of the past five or so years to legendary champions of the past is like comparing supersonic jet fighters to propeller-driven World War II planes. The game has really changed that quickly. Most of the players I see on top teams today look like they were manufactured in laboratories.”

By the way, the best line that I’ve heard in the run-up to the Rose Bowl was the following:

When [former USC wide receiver] Mike Williams lost his court challenge to the NFL underclassman rule and was not allowed to return to college football, did he still count against USC’s salary cap?

“Slugger”?

PWilson.jpgAs the Stros continue to troll the used car lot of free agent hitters during this off-season, Chronicle Stros beat writer Jose de Jesus Ortiz reminds us that he relies on Stros press releases rather than objective research in this article entitled “Astros near deal for slugger”:

Astros general manager Tim Purpura’s hopes for landing a run-producing outfielder may come to fruition today. And if those plans work out, it’s most likely free agent center fielder Preston Wilson will land with the National League champions.
Wilson, 31, hit .260 with 25 home runs, 90 RBIs and 148 strikeouts for the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals in 2005. All-Star third baseman Morgan Ensberg, who had 36 homers and 101 RBIs, was the only Astro with more RBIs last year than Wilson.
Wilson, who earned $12.5 million in 2005, would likely get a contract worth less per year than the one-year, $6 million offer Nomar Garciaparra spurned from the Astros.

So, Wilson is a “run-producing outfielder” and about as good a slugger as Morgan Ensberg? H’mm, let’s look at the facts.
Wilson is a 31 year-old outfielder who has played eight seasons with the Marlins, Rockies and the Nationals. In those eight seasons, he has had a barely above-average runs created against average (RCAA, explained here) in four seasons and below-average in the other four. Wilson has a career -17 RCAA, which means that he has created 17 fewer runs for his teams over his eight seasons than an average National League hitter would have generated over the same period. In contrast, Ensberg has created 43 more runs than an average National League hitter would have during his five seasons with the Stros. Wilson’s career stat line is .333 OBA/.478 SLG/.811 OPS, which means he is below-average for getting on base and slightly above-average in terms of slugging. Lance Berkman — who is a real slugger — has a career stat line in one less season than Wilson of 289 RCAA/.416 OBA/.557 SLG/.973 OPS.
In short, Wilson is a slightly below-average outfielder whose main attribute is that he would probably be less bad than Willy Taveras at making outs and in not creating runs. But he is not a “slugger” and most likely never will be. A more appropriate analysis would question why the Stros management is even considering throwing a substantially above-average National League salary at such a player.
01/04/05 Update: The Stros signed Wilson to a $4.5 million one year deal with an option to retain him for three years for another $24 million. Absent Wilson turning into a far more productive player in 2006 than he has been in his previous eight MLB seasons, I cannot imagine the Stros picking up that option.

WSJ goes blawging

WSJ online.gifThe Wall Street Journal ($) begins the new year by rolling out a new blawg called — somewhat unimaginatively — “Law Blog,” focusing “on law and business, and the business of law.” Former Forbes Magazine reporter Peter Lattman — who is an attorney — is the lead writer for the WSJ Law Blog, which will include contributions from reporters and editors at The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. Law Blog is a part of the WSJ’s rollout of this flashy new Law news page, which the Journal says will focus on “news, trends and buzz for lawyers at firms and in-house law departments, as well as the business people who work with them.” Check the new blawg and page out.

While UAL lurches to chapter 11 exit, Independence Air tanks

UAL-logo10.gifOverall, the U.S. airline industry improved a bit last week as United Airlines parent UAL Corp. announced that it received creditor approval of its chapter 11 plan to emerge from bankruptcy next month as low-cost airline Independence Air announced its plan to liquidate rather than to attempt to emerge from its recently-filed reorganization case. Here are the earlier posts on the UAL financial problems and the Independence Air bankruptcy.
As noted earlier here, UAL has arranged a $3 billion all-debt exit financing package to emerge from chapter 11 funded by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co. About half of that credit facility is dedicated to repay the $1.3 billion debtor-in-possession loan that has kept United operating through its over-three year adventure in Chapter 11.
United’s plan reminds the market of the risks involved in investing in or extending trade credit to a highly-leveraged legacy airline these days. Although the plan proposes to pay secured, priority tax, and administrative claims in full, UAL’s $20 billion in unsecured claims will receive a dividend of between 4% to 8% of such claims in the reorganized UAL common stock while existing common and preferred equity receive nada. UAL’s restructuring advisers have estimated that the reorganized UAL will have an equity value of about $1.9 billion upon emergence from bankruptcy, but the market is already somewhat bullish on the reorganized United (do people ever learn?) — UAL bonds are currently trading at much stronger prices than the four to eight cents on the dollar that UAL unsecured claims will receive under the plan.

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Why John Lopez is wrong about the bowl system

bowl games.jpgAs you sit back today to watch any number of the six college bowl games, you might come across Chronicle sportswriter John Lopez’s column from yesterday in which he characterizes this past Saturday’s EV1.net Houston Bowl as the “Apathy Bowl” because of the low turnout from local football fans and renews the call for an NFL-style playoff system to determine a national champion in NCAA Division I-A college football.
Lopez’s opinion is a common one, arguably even the majority view of most folks who follow college football passionately. However, it is wrong for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is the health of college football as we know it.
Lopez’s view is that the BCS system — which has set up Wednesday’s USC-Texas Rose Bowl matchup for the national championship and will have a championship game next season a week after four major New Year’s Day bowl games — is killing the bowl system, anyway. He cites the low attendance figures for lesser bowl games that do not figure in the national championship equation as dispositive evidence that the bowl system is flawed and that a playoff system would generate far more interest (i.e., money). Lopez predicts that peripheral bowls will die off as sponsors ditch games for lack of interest in the face of the more popular BCS bowl games.

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2005 Weekly local football review

Houston Bowl4.GIF49er’s 20 Texans 17

The Reggie Bush Bowl came to a successful conclusion for the 2-14 Texans as a field goal with 5 minutes left in overtime lifted the 4-12 49er’s to the victory. The Texans can now get on with the inevitable firing of head coach Dom Capers and his coaching staff, and the latest rumor is that Texans GM Charlie Casserly will be retained in some personnel-related capacity, although it remains unclear whether he will remain general manager of the team.
One could reasonably speculate that the Texans did not try to win the game much. QB David Carr (elbow), star receiver Andre Johnson (ankle) and leading pass rusher Shantee Orr (back) all retired to the sideline after a couple of series with injuries. They joined running backs Domanick Davis (knee) and Jonathan Wells (thigh) and defensive end Gary Walker (tricep), who all went on injured reserve last week. Moreover, kicker Kris Brown missed another chip-shot field goal with six minutes to go that would have won the game in regulation for the Texans, and the Texans’ offense continued to distinguish itself as one of the worst in recent NFL history — the unit not only failed again to exceed 300 yards of total offense, but also set up the 49er’s tying and winning scores.
By the way, one of the stranger observations on the game and the season was in this Megan Manfull/Chronicle article:

“The Texans have rallied around [Texan head coach Dom] Capers all season.”

If the Texans have rallied around Capers this season, then how bad would the Texans have been had they actually tanked on their coach? Texans announcer Mark Vandermeer summed it up with his call at the end of the game:

“Here’s the snap. The kick is good. The game is over. The season is over as the Texans lose to San Francisco 20-17. They lock up the worst record in the National Football league at 2 and 14, and the nightmare that was the 2005 campaign finally comes to an end.”

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Another problem for Milberg Weiss

Milberg Weiss8.jpgOn my way out the door to attend the Houston Bowl today, I noticed this LA Times article on the latest development in the now five-year criminal investigation of certain of the attorneys involved in the former Milberg Weiss Bershan Hynes & Lerach, LLP law firm for allegedly engaging in a kickback scheme involving a common plaintiff in a number of the firm’s class action lawsuits. Prior posts on the Milberg Weiss case are here.
Last week, federal prosecutors attached a potentially troublesome internal law firm memo to a seemingly innocuous objection to Palm Springs lawyer Seymour Lazar’s request to end his house arrest. Lazar and his personal attorney, Paul Selzer, were indicted earlier this year for allegedly taking $2.4 million in kickbacks from a “New York law firm,” presumably Milberg Weiss. Inasmuch as prosecutors have already given immunity to at least two other former clients who say they received kickbacks from Milberg Weiss, the conventional view is that the Lazar and Selzer indictments are part of an effort to prompt the two defendants to testify against Milberg Weiss and its partners.

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Bowl game reading

Reliant Stadium at night.jpgMy old friend Coach Mac is in town this week with his Iowa State Cyclone football team to play the TCU Horned Frogs tomorrow afternoon in the EV1.net Houston Bowl at Reliant Stadium. As a result, blogging will be a tad sparse this weekend as I participate in some of the bowl festivities, but I wanted to pass along the following pieces for you to peruse while watching the flurry of professional and college football games over the next several days:

Kerry Packer — the media tycoon who was one of the wealthiest Australians — died earlier in the week at the age of 68. Packer was an inveterate gambler in business, in the casinos (where he was known as a generous tipper) and on the golf course, where he frequently played on one of the world’s best and most exclusive courses — his own.
Yesterday was the anniversary of the late and legendary Ohio State football coach Woody Hayes going haywire on the sidelines before a national television audience during a 1978 bowl game.
Banjo Jones detects a bit of editorial glee behind this Forbes article ($) about wealthy Houston plaintiffs’ lawyer John O’Quinn being scammed by a trusted employee.
Larry Ribstein is back from a month-long jaunt to Southeast Asia and is talking about why the U.S. government better quit acting like a monopolist in the market for regulating international companies.
Bill Hesson passes along author Michael Crichton‘s engaging speech to the Washington Center for Complexity and Public Policy entitled Fear, Complexity, & Environmental Management in the 21st Century in which he reminds us of the late David Brinkley‘s wise observation:

“The one function TV news performs very well is that when there is no news we give it to you with the same emphasis as if there were.”

Crichton’s speech includes his observations about Chernobyl, the “dead area” around which is the subject of this fascinating picture journal of a Russian woman’s motorcycle journey.
Ted Frank passes along this entertaining New Orleans Times-Picayune article about a different kind of flood spawned by Hurricane Katrina — the lawsuit flood. Among the more entertaining are the lawsuits against the Army Corps of Engineers for damages resulting from the the failed levees despite the fact that the 1927 statute that authorized the Corps to build levees in the first place specifically exempts the Corps from liability. And as between the Corps and private business, guess which is more effective in cleaning up the mess left from Katrina?
Edward Rothstein of the NY Times and Daniel Drezner provide interesting reviews of Speilberg’s new movie, Munich.
Finally, P J O’Rourke tells Christopher Bray that he’d rather clean the fridge than write, and also passes along this observation about his conversion from communist to capitalist:

“You see, the real reason I became a communist was to impress girls. Back then, all the pretty ones were revolutionaries. One of the things that’s gone wrong for the Left is that their girls just aren’t cute any more.”

Have a great weekend!

Causey Pleads to Seven Years

As expected, former Enron chief accountant Richard Causey pled guilty Wednesday afternoon to a single count of securities fraud while agreeing to a prison sentence of seven years and a fine of $1.250 million.

Here are the Houston Chronicle, NY Times (Eichenwald’s here), W$J, and Washington Post articles on the plea deal.

As a result of the timing of Causey’s plea deal, U.S. District Judge Sim Lake postponed the commencement of the Lay-Skilling trial for two weeks to January 30, 2006.

In agreeing to the seven-year plea deal, the 45 year-old Causey took on the second-longest prison sentence of the 16 former Enron executives who have pled guilty to date under plea bargains, less only than former Enron CFO Andrew Fastow’s minimum ten year sentence. It’s a surprisingly long sentence given that Causey, unlike Fastow, did not peel tens of millions of dollars off of Enron and various special purpose entities for his own benefit.

Causey has two years’ worth of incentive to be a compelling Task Force witness against his co-defendants Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling because the only way that he can obtain a reduced sentence (to five years from seven) is if the Task Force, in its sole discretion, determines that Causey has been a good helper.

However, unlike most other former Enron executives who have copped pleas, Causey did not sign a cooperation agreement with the Task Force and thus, is not obligated to cooperate with the government. Even though he has two years’ worth of motivation to ingratiate himself to Task Force prosecutors, Causey cannot lose his plea deal if the Task Force finds that his assistance is not particularly helpful.

During its almost four year existence, the Task Force has been much more successful in bludgeoning plea bargains out of former Enron executives than in obtaining convictions of such executives at trial — only one former Enron executive (Dan Boyle in the Nigerian Barge case) has been convicted out of the seven former Enron executives who have defended themselves at trial against a Task Force prosecution.

Causey had been facing trial on an absurd 36 counts of conspiracy, fraud, insider trading, lying to auditors and money laundering, and also faced a potential, effective life sentence if convicted on all or most of the counts. The securities fraud charge that Causey pled to has a maximum prison sentence of 10 years.

Exhibit A to Causey’s plea agreement contains his specific admissions, which reflect that the Task Force is now focusing more on non-disclosure of material facts relating to Enron’s financial performance than the allegations of fraudulent accounting that permeate the indictment against Causey.

Nevertheless, it remains unclear to what extent, if any, Causey’s testimony will be used against Lay and Skilling in their upcoming trial.

Causey’s admissions on exhibit A are limited in nature and are based on the generic statement that he participated with “others in Enron senior management” to defraud the investing public by misleading them about the company’s true financial performance.

However, the affidavit only cites two examples, and they do not involve some of the broader accounting allegations related to Fastow’s SPE’s that have been the focus of the Task Force’s case against Causey and his co-defendants to date.

Similarly, the affidavit makes no reference to secret handshake deals involving alleged oral promises (undisclosed to Enron’s auditor) to pay back money provided by third parties such as the Task Force parlayed into convictions of Boyle and four former Merrill Lynch executives in the Nigerian Barge trial.

Surprisingly, Causey’s admissions involve one-time deals that do not, in and of themselves, reflect a management team that was — as the Task Force contends — engaged in a conspiracy to hide a house of cards from investors for several years before Enron’s bankruptcy.

In one instance, Causey admitted that he and other unnamed Enron executives removed a hedge from a partnership that Enron partly owned and which held Enron stock. Inasmuch as the Enron executives knew that positive news about Enron was about to push the value of the stock upward, the value of a related investment would go down if the hedge was still in place. Once the hedge was removed, Enron reported the stock price increase as recurring profits in the first quarter of 2000, which Causey now contends was improper.

The second Causey admission involves Enron’s retail electricity business, Enron Energy Services.

Causey admitted that EES — which he contends was an important promotional tool for Enron to investors — had hundreds of millions of dollars of unexpected first quarter of 2001 trading losses, which far exceeded the unit’s projected income for the year. In order to maintain the unit’s attractiveness as a promotional tool, Causey contends that Enron shifted the unit’s trading losses into a more profitable unit and thus, avoided direct reporting of the losses that might have chilled investor fervor for Enron.

Finally, inasmuch as Causey and his counsel have participated under a joint defense agreement with the Lay and Skilling defense teams for over two years now, virtually any of Causey’s testimony would be subject to challenge as being derived from that joint defense effort. Moreover, Causey had problems in defending himself against the charges that Lay and Skilling do not, and his credibility may be subject to impeachment at trial through portrayal of the eve-of-trial plea deal as an effort to save his skin at the expense of his co-defendants.

Thus, even though Causey’s plea is disconcerting for Lay and Skilling, it remains to be seen whether it really changes the dynamics of the government’s case against the two key former Enron executives.

As the Task Force debriefs Causey, the nature of his potential testimony will likely become better known over the next couple of weeks.

Meanwhile, in the lottery that has become the criminalization of business in this country, former Qwest Communications International Inc. executive Marc Weisberg agreed yesterday to plead guilty to a single count of wire fraud and will cooperate with prosecutors in Denver who have charged Qwest’s former chief executive, Joseph Nacchio, with insider trading.

Weisberg had been scheduled to begin trial next week on eleven counts of wire fraud and money laundering for allegedly abusing his position at Qwest for personal gain by using his access to shares of Qwest vendors’ initial public offerings to benefit himself, his friends and his family to the tune of approximately $3 million. As did Causey, Weisberg faced decades in prison if convicted on all those counts.

Weisberg’s deal?

Sixty days of home detention, two years probation, a fine of $250,000 and a two-year ban on him serving as an officer or director of a public company.

What was that about high natural gas prices?

natural gas rainbow-well2.jpgRemember this post just two weeks ago about natural gas futures contracts settling at an all-time high price over $15 per million British thermal units?
Well, markets have a funny way of reacting to such pinnacles, and the market for natural gas futures has been in a free-fall almost ever since that earlier post. Yesterday, natural-gas futures for January contracts dropped 10% and pushed prices below $11 for the first time on the New York Mercantile Exchange since mid-September before settling at $11.022 per million British thermal units. Prices for January contracts have fallen 23% since Dec. 21 as thin trading and forecasts for mild weather are powerful forces driving the price of contracts downward. Some traders are now predicting that gas-futures prices will fall below $10 after the New Year if above-normal temperatures persist.