Inasmuch as Major League Baseball is taking a break for the All-Star break, I decided to post the third part of five periodic reviews of the Stros’ 2008 season a game or so early (previous parts for the 2008 season are here). Although they were able to keep it together a bit longer than the 2007 club, the 2008 Stros (44-51) fell apart during the third 20% segment of the 2008 season.
The Stros went 12-19 during the third segment and spiced that effort by being trounced 10-0 on this past Friday evening by the team with the worst record in MLB, the Washington Nationals (36-50). That’s a far worse record than the club had during either the first fifth or second fifth of the season, but consistent with my pre-season forecast that this Stros club looked like a 75-win outfit. The Stros are in in last place in the National League Central, 13 games behind the Cubs (57-38) and 8.5 games out of the National League Wildcard Playoff berth. Given that the Cubs net RCAA/RSAA total is 113 (43 RCAA/70 RSAA) and the Stros is -42 (-41 RCAA/-1 RSAA), it’s surprising that the Stros aren’t even further behind.
Nevertheless, the first 60% of the season has been an instructive lesson in how risky it is to make conclusions about baseball based on small sample sizes. The Stros stumbled out of the gate with 12 losses in their first 18 games and looked completely lost. Then, stellar 1B Lance Berkman (52 RCAA/.443 OBA/.653 SLG/ 1.097 OPS) warmed up and the club bounced back with a 23-10 stretch that put them seven games above .500 at 30-23 and just one game behind the Cubs on May 27, prompting the mostly clueless Chronicle sports reporters (Zac Levine excepted) to babble about a possible playoff berth. However, since then, the Stros have lost 29 of 43 games to drop into the NL Central cellar and decisively expunge any theoretical playoff aspirations. The Stros now have to win 31 of their final 67 games just to equal my 75 win pre-season prediction. That is by no means a sure thing.