Making subprime sense

dominoes%20082007.jpgThe New York Times continues to do a reasonably thorough job of reporting on the downturn in the subprime mortgage business and its impact on the recent crunch in the credit markets (see here and here), although it’s not at all clear that the reporters and columnists understand how markets will adjust and resolve these problems. A case in point is this Paul Krugman column in which he decries the impact of securitization of mortages on the willingness of lenders to engage in workouts with financially-strapped borrowers:

In the past, as Gretchen Morgenson recently pointed out in The Times, the bank that made the loan would often have been willing to offer a workout, modifying the loanís terms to make it affordable, because what the borrower was able to pay would be worth more to the bank than its incurring the costs of foreclosure and trying to resell the home. That would have been especially likely in the face of a depressed housing market.
Today, however, the mortgage broker who made the loan is usually, as Ms. Morgenson says, ìthe first link in a financial merry-go-round.î The mortgage was bundled with others and sold to investment banks . . .
My guess is that [the solution] would involve federal agencies buying mortgages ó not the securities conjured up from these mortgages, but the original loans ó at a steep discount, then renegotiating the terms. But Iím happy to listen to better ideas.

Here’s a better idea — how about allowing the parties that took the risk of the mortgages to endure the consequences of that risk-taking? Krugman is correct that one of the disadvantages of securitization (which is far outweighed by its many benefits) is that the rules for servicing the loans are established when the loans are pooled and cannot be changed without providing legal problems for the seller of the securitized mortgage pool. For example, if a pooled loan were sold at a discount, then the proceeds of the sale would be treated as a prepayment of the loan, which would benefit certain investors and disadvantage other investors. Inasmuch as the disadvantaged investors would seek damages from the seller of the securitized mortgage pool, that’s why the sellers of the security don’t allow the servicing terms of the mortgage to be changed after the loan is contributed to the pool.
Krugman’s proposal is essentially that borrowers should be allowed to remain in their houses on renegotiated terms and that the investors in the securitized pools should absorb the cost of such a modified arrangement. But borrowers can already file a bankruptcy case and attempt to extend the payment terms of the loan under either a chapter 11 or 13 plan so long as their income and the value of the collateral for the mortgage support such terms. However, if the borrower’s income or the value of the underlying asset will not support extension of the loan terms, it’s far better that the lenders be allowed to exercise their contractual right to conduct a foreclosure sale of the collateral for the loan. That way, the investors who bought the securitized mortgages absorb the losses, which is precisely the risk of investing in a securitized mortgage pool.
By the way, one of the Times articles linked above starts by passing along the following story, which is testimony to the creativity and resilience of American markets:

All through last year, Jim Melcher saw the signs of a rapidly deteriorating American housing market ó riskier mortgages, rising delinquencies and more homes falling into foreclosure. And with $100 million in assets at his hedge fund, Balestra Capital, he was in a position to do something about it.
So in October, as mortgage-backed bonds were still flying high, he bet $10 million that these bonds would plunge in value, using complex derivatives available to any institutional investor. As his gamble began to pay off in the first months of 2007, Mr. Melcher, a money manager based in New York, plowed the profits into ever bigger wagers that the mortgage crisis would worsen further, eventually risking some $60 million of the fundís money.
ìWe saw the opportunity of a lifetime, and since then events have unfolded on schedule,î he said. Mr. Melcherís flagship fund has since doubled in value, even as this summerís market turmoil cost other investors billions, forced the closing of several major hedge funds and pushed the stock market down 7 percent since mid-July. This week, Mr. Melcher is heading to Paris for a vacation with his wife.

What does the investment of a billion dollars in New Orleans generate?

New%20Orleans%20map%20082007.gifAccording to this NY Times article, apparently not much:

Six inches.
After two years and more than a billion dollars spent by the Army Corps of Engineers to rebuild New Orleansís hurricane protection system, that is how much the water level is likely to be reduced if a big 1-in-100 flood hits Leah Pratcherís Gentilly neighborhood.
Looking over the maps that showed other possible water levels around the city, Ms. Pratcher grew increasingly furious. Her house got four feet of water after Hurricane Katrina, and still stands to get almost as much from a 1-in-100 flood. [ . . .]
New Orleans was swamped by Hurricane Katrina; now it is awash in data, studied obsessively in homes all over town. And the simple message conveyed by that data is that while parts of the city are substantially safer, others have changed little. New Orleans remains a very risky place to live.
The entire flood system still provides much less protection than New Orleans needs, and the pre-Katrina patchwork of levees, floodwalls and gates that a Corps of Engineers investigation called ìa system in name onlyî is still just that.
The corps has strengthened miles of floodwalls, but not always in places where people live. It has built up breached walls on the east side of one major canal, but left the west side, which stood up to Hurricane Katrina, lower and thus more vulnerable. It has not closed the canals that have often been described as funnels for floodwaters into the city. [. . .]
As a result, the city still lacks a system that can stand up to that 1-in-100 storm, let alone one like Hurricane Katrina, which the corps calls a 1-in-396 storm. The work that could build the more robust system ó originally estimated at $7 billion, and now at least twice that ó will not be completed until 2011 at the earliest, and experts agree that even that level of protection will be less than the city needs.
The corps is working on a two-year, $20 million study to find ways of providing even more protection, but it will not even be released until December.

Read the entire article. As noted in many posts over the past two years in the hurricane category of this blog, the performance of the various federal, state and local governmental entities in rebuilding New Orleans has been generally abysmal, at best.

A vexing question about women’s golf

GolfWoman%20putting.jpgThe Scotsman.com’s John Huggan tackles a question about women professional golfers that has perplexed me for a long time:

. . . [W]omen, typically, own short games that simply do not bear close comparison with their male counterparts. Whether pitching, chipping, blasting from bunkers or putting, the ladies are markedly inferior.
Which is odd, when you think about it. In the areas of the game where innate touch and feel should have obvious advantages over pure strength, men still manage to make the women look inadequate.[ . . .]
Look at the stats. A 29 putts per round average barely gets you into the top 100 on the PGA Tour; on the LPGA Tour, that number has you in the top 30.

As Huggan notes, practice makes perfect and, for some reason, the women pros don’t like practicing the short game as much as other areas of the game. Who’d a thunk it?