Morgenson’s mortgage myths

sub-prime-mortgages-newtxt1932006.gifOver the past weekend, the New York Times business columnist Gretchen Morgenson continued her “sky is falling” bit with the regard to the subprime mortgage market (see prior post here). Larry Ribstein, who used to disassemble Morgenson’s columns on a weekly basis before tiring of it, somehow musters the energy to expose Morgenson’s vacuous analysis once again, which saves the rest of us from having to muck through her blather.
Nevertheless, it is rather shocking that a Pulitizer Prize-winning business columnist doesn’t take the time to understand that an equity investment in a company that originates subprime mortgages is very different from an investment in debt that is secured by pools of subprime mortgages (mortage-backed securities or “MBS’s”), which are designed to endure a temporary drop in house prices or rise in default rates. Consequently, while Morgenson wrings her hands over the fact that investing in subprime mortgage originators hasn’t been a good idea for the past year, she can’t explain why this means that the markets in subprime MBS’s are in serious trouble. The reality is that they probably aren’t.
But then again, maybe Morgenson doesn’t even understand the equity markets all that well. According to this NY Post article, Morgenson’s story mischaracterized the Bear Stearns recommendations on one of those nefarious subprime originators:

Bear Stearns is claiming that one of its analysts was done wrong in a scathing New York Times analysis of the collapsing subprime mortgage industry.
Bear analyst Scott Coren was described as having written “an upbeat report” about a collapsing subprime mortgage lender, New Century Financial, a company considered to be just days away from bankruptcy.
The article, written by Pulitzer prize-winning columnist Gretchen Morgenson, chronicled in a Page One article how Wall Street willingly created a burgeoning market for bonds-backed loans that were virtually certain to have trouble making their principal and interest payments. Coren, who upgraded his call on New Century on March 1, appeared to be portrayed in a conflict of interest to rival that of the notorious Internet bubble era.
But, in fact, Coren had made a series of gutsy calls on the subprime mortgage sector – no mean feat at Bear Stearns, a firm that in recent years has earned hundreds of millions of dollars annually from mortgage trading.
He put out a “sell”- called an “underperform” at Bear – when New Century stock was at $38 and maintained it until it slumped to $15.
Even Coren’s upgrade on March 1, when New Century was clearly beginning to collapse, advised investors to “stay on the sideline.”

Better rethink that conspiracy, Gretchen.

Boom Town, USA

Boomtown%20Casino_jpg.jpgMaybe it’s because I cut my teeth in business law during a prolonged recession in the Houston area in the mid-to-late 1980’s that followed a boom cycle earlier in the decade, but these kinds of articles always worry me a bit:

Galvanized by the record profits at energy companies, this city, the center of the countryís energy industry, has shaken off the effects of the Enron implosion six years ago and is enjoying its strongest resurgence in more than 20 years, business officials and real estate developers say.
Some energy companies are expanding and putting up new buildings. Others, like Citgo, Schlumberger and Halliburton, have moved their headquarters to Houston. Oil and natural gas companies have helped reduce office vacancy rates to 15 percent, a five-year low, according to Grubb & Ellis, a real estate company. Job growth is double the national average ó 97,400 jobs were created in 2006. The National Association of Realtors says the housing market in Houston is one of the strongest in the country.
ìThe increase in the oil business has made Houston,î said Randall Davis, a Houston condominium developer. ìIt feels a touch like the 1980s ó everyone is out, the restaurants are full, the bars are full. Itís like New York.î
The good news extends across the city. The port recently opened a $1.4 billion container terminal to tackle soaring traffic. In 2006, it handled 1.6 million 20-foot containers, up 29 percent from 2003. At the Texas Medical Center, hospitals and universities are investing billions in new facilities. Residential and mixed-use developments are going up downtown.

Read the entire article here. Houston in 2007 is a very different place than the Houston of 1985, particularly with regard to the more diversified local economy now than back then. But the energy industry remains the primary driver of the economy, although competition for that industry appears to be the bigger risk now than the price risk that has prompted the local economy’s boom and bust cycles through the years. This week’s announcement that Halliburton is moving its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai is a definite wakeup call for Houston’s leaders. Just as many Midwestern energy companies abandoned Tulsa for Houston over the past couple of decades, the same thing could happen to Houston as big energy concerns leave for greener pastures overseas.

The Law of Unintended Consequences

unintended.gifAccording to this Bloomberg article, it’s alive and well in Switzerland:

Switzerland entered a treaty with the European Union to import workers, seeking more bankers, managers and academics.
What it got was an influx of prostitutes.
The number of people offering sex for money has risen by a third in Zurich and 80 percent in Geneva since Switzerland opened its borders to workers from the 15 EU-member states at the start of 2004, police estimate. Some lawmakers predict prostitution will grow even more after the government last year removed work restrictions for residents from 10 newer EU countries as well.