A beneficial choice

new%20century.gifThe New York Times (see here and here) is not the only major metropolitan newspaper that employs a business columnist who doesn’t appreciate the benefits of a robust market in mortgage financing.
Channeling the Times’ Gretchen Morgenson, the Chronicle’s Loren Steffy decries the irresponsibility of those involved in the overheated subprime mortgage market. In so doing, he passes along an anecdote on how he resisted the temptation to take out a subprime mortgage to finance a home in Houston before he had sold his home in Dallas. Steffy suggests that he has financial discipline that both the subprime lending industry and most of the subprime borrowers lack. Maybe so, but what is clearer is that he doesn’t appreciate the benefit to him and other consumers of risk-taking in the subprime mortgage financing market.
Sure, there were a substantial number of people who took out subprime mortgages who didn’t have the financial capacity to pay them. A large number of those folks will default on their mortgages and lose their homes, which is unfortunate. However, the bigger losers will be the holders of the equity tranches of mortgage-backed securities (“MBS’s”) and subprime originators who are now left holding the bag with mortgages that they can’t sell. Don’t feel too sorry for them, though. Given that those investors made a lot of hay during the boom years, they are now simply enduring the risk of relaxing underwriting standards too much in an attempt to sustain the hot market. These are sophisticated investors and financial institutions that are willing and able to take the risks of these investments and to bear the losses associated with such risks.
Going forward, the number of subprime mortgages originated will go down, as will the number of subprime MSB’s sold into the market. Yields on the subprime MBS’s will likely rise and the underwriting standards will get stricter, so the supply of subprime mortgages will constrict to meet the reduced demand. The MBS’s and other financial products that have been developed to hedge risk in the subprime market are valuable tools to facilitate such a correction.
Which brings us back to Steffy. Perhaps he is more financially disciplined than those involved in the subprime mortgage market. Or perhaps he is has the same aversion to risk as Suze Orman. Whatever the reason, he decided not to take the risk of carrying two mortgages, which is fine. But another homeowner in the same position as he was might decide that taking on the subprime mortgage was worth the risk, which is fine, too.
The point is that the financing market for subprime mortgages gave Steffy a choice to engage in what could have been wealth-creating risk-taking. Nothing is wrong with electing not to take that risk. But it is wrong not to acknowledge that it is a good thing to have the opportunity to make that choice, which is what the subprime mortgage financing market provided.

The Hamptons of Houston?

galveston.gifGalveston has been compared with many things, but rarely with the Hamptons. But that’s precisely the comparison that this NY Times Sunday article makes as it reports on the throngs of Houstonians who have fueled the beach home building boom on the island over the past decade:

Only 51 miles southeast of Houston, Galveston still has plenty of vacant land, low home prices and miles of wide-open beaches. Over the last four years, the average price of a home has risen 89 percent, to $232,800 in January, according to the Galveston Association of Realtors. Prices for water-view lots are now more than double what the Wisemans paid. A single water-view lot at Beachtown costs $300,000, though other lots without views could be as low as $80,000.
ìThe world has discovered the Gulf Coast,î said James Gaines, research economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. ìYou want a second home on the East Coast at an affordable price, and youíre not going to find anything. Here, itís still available and affordable.î [. . .]
ìGalveston is experiencing a renaissance it hasnít seen in 100 years,î said Jeffrey G. Sjostrom, president of the Galveston Economic Development Partnership. ìThe beauty of the development is that itís comprehensive and diversified. Our eggs are being spread across many baskets.î
The development seems to fly in the face of Galvestonís geography. As a barrier island, the city can flood during tropical storms. Sometimes, its beaches erode. In September 2005, the city was evacuated when Hurricane Rita threatened the island. But home buyers keep coming because a large-scale hurricane has not damaged the island in more than 20 years.
Developers are putting up condominium towers, resorts and acres of homes from one end of the 32-mile-long island to the other. More than 6,500 residential units are under construction; most of them are condos, according to the development partnership. At the western end of the island, Centex Homes is building one of the largest projects, a 1,000-acre development with 2,300 houses and condos.

Meanwhile, this Harvey Rice/Chronicle article reports that questions are being raised about the rampant develoment:

The first map detailing geological hazards on Galveston Island shows a potential clash between development and the environment.
Several subdivisions already sit in what may be the most dangerous areas of the island ó low spots where walls of water bulldozed their way through in previous storms.
More construction is planned in those areas and others despite the threat of storm surges and beach erosion as well as the impact on economically important wetlands, according to findings recently presented to the City Council.

By the way, if you’re interested in making an investment in Galveston, I suggest you wait awhile. The island is long overdue for a hurricane and many folks have forgotten the damage that the minimal category 3 Hurricane Alicia caused on the island in 1983. Beach home property values plummeted in Galveston after that storm. They are a good bet to fall after the next one, too.

Just a quick note between friends

Luke%20Donald.jpgsergio2.jpg 27 year-old PGA Tour golfer Sergio Garcia is the subject of this Golf World photoshoot and interview, in which he passes along that one of his best friends on the PGA Tour is the 26 year-old Englishman, Luke Donald.
Last year, when Donald passed Garcia in the World Golf Rankings for the first time, Garcia describes the text message that he received from Donald:

“Hi, No. 9. This is No. 8.”

Entertaining corruption

150px-2007FinalFour.pngThe dubious nature of the NCAA’s regulation of big-time intercollegiate football and basketball has been a frequent topic on this blog (see here, here, here, here and here), and one of the best examples of the hyprocrisy of that regulation is the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. As Peter Gordon notes, the tournament is hugely entertaining, but also hugely exploitive, and he passes along the following passage from Lawrence M. Kahn’s article Winter 2007 Journal of Economic Perspectives ($) entitled Cartel Behavior and Amateurism in College Sports to make his point:

Big-time college sports programs appear to extract rents from revenue-producing athletes by limiting their pay and requiring them to remain amateurs. These rents are spent on facilities, non-revenue sports, and possibly head coaches’ salaries. On average, the two big revenue sports of men’s basketball and football run a surplus; however, college sports as a whole — including the non-revenue sports — report operating losses. Some evidence suggests, although not unambiguously, that college sports have positive indirect effects on public and private contributions. Moreover, sports success appears to generate interest by students that may lead to a modestly stronger student body. In this consumer-oriented era for higher education, universities need to maintain their appeal to future applicants, many of whom are future alumni or future voters for state legislatures, and having successful sports programs may be one way to do this. The popularity of college sports events and of schools with big-time athletic programs suggests that the idea of amateurism may have some market value. Arms race considerations suggest that society may gain from some spending limits on college athletics. From an efficiency point of view, these societal gains would have to be weighed against the losses caused by movement down the supply curve of star athletes.

Professor Gordon boils it down:

Paradox resolved. Exploitation, inefficiency, politicized anti-trust status and “consumer-oriented … higher education.”

Oh My!

Pope%20Benedict.jpgAs if the image of controversial fight promoter Don King having an audience with Pope Benedict XVI isn’t strange enough, things almost got completely out of hand when the New York Post ran a short report about King’s upcoming meeting with the Pope:

When Ana Carril-Grumberg read on [New York Post column] Page Six yesterday that boxing promoter Don King is scheduled to meet Pope Benedict XVI next week, she called us to say that King’s son, Eric, owes her $5,250 in child support for their daughter Nathalie, 16. “I want the pope to intervene,” Carril-Grumberg said. From Paris, King responded, “I didn’t sleep with her. My son may be a naughty boy, but he’s a grown man.” King characterized Carril-Grumberg as a gold-digger: “She thought she was striking gold, oil actually, because it’s black,” laughed King. But getting serious, he said, “I’ll ask my son when I get back. If he’s got obligations, I’ll tell him to take care of them.”

The epitome of class

Arnie19.jpgGreg Owen is a professional golfer from England who has struggled to become a solid regular player on the PGA Tour. On Sunday of this week last year, he came to the 17th hole at Bay Hill with a one-shot lead, just two holes away from his first PGA Tour championship and a congratulatory handshake from the Bay Hill tournament chairman and golf icon, Arnold Palmer. Owen had never even met Palmer.
Owen’s tee shot on the par-3 17th missed the green, but he chipped his second shot to 40 inches from the cup, so it appeared that he had saved par. However, he missed the putt and then proceeded to three putt the hole, missing the second putt while angrily attempting to tap it in from just inches away. The double-bogey cost him the lead and a bogey on the final hole of the tournament sealed his fate. A devastated Owen dutifully handled the post-tournament media sessions and then immediately left for his home in Orlando. His chance at a congratulatory handshake from Palmer was gone, perhaps forever.
As the newly-christened Arnold Palmer Invitational got under way yesterday at Bay Hill, Golf Digest’s Steve Elling passes along the contents of a letter that Owen found in his mailbox a few days after his meltdown at last year’s tournament.

March 22, 2006
Dear Greg:
Not to belabor the point, but I want you to know how I sympathize with how you have to be feeling about what happened at the end of the tournament last Sunday. In somewhat different circumstances, I’ve been there a time or two over the years myself.
You should try to draw some consolation that, until that happened, you had outplayed everybody in contention. There’s no reason why your time to win shouldn’t come further down the line.
You handled your disappointment very well afterwards and I wish you well the rest of the season.
Sincerely,
Arnold Palmer

Owen immediately framed the picture. And Arnold Palmer reaffirmed his place among the great sportsmen of our time.

How much do they charge him for making copies?

Hugo-Chavez-and-Fidel-Castro-have-signed-an-energy-pact-with-Caribbean-states-leaders-2.jpgSpeaking of Rudy Giuliani, it looks as if his recent association with Houston-based Bracewell & Giuliani is making for some rather interesting associations:

Rudolph W. Giulianiís law firm has lobbied for years on behalf of an oil company controlled by the Venezuelan president, Hugo Ch·vez, a strident critic of President Bush and American-style capitalism.
Bracewell & Giuliani, the firm based in Houston that Mr. Giuliani joined as a name partner two years ago, handles lobbying in the Texas capital for the Citgo Petroleum Corporation of Houston. Citgo is the American subsidiary of PetrÛleos de Venezuela, the state-owned oil company that Mr. Ch·vez controls.

This is really a mountain of a molehill as Giuliani doesn’t have anything to do with the small amount of business that his law firm does on behalf of Chavez and Citgo. But then again, it doesn’t seem all that unfair for folks to trump up charges of hypocrisy against Candidate Giuliani.

A blast from the insider trading past

FosterByTopkatBW.jpgRemember R. Foster Winans? He was the “Heard on the Street” columnist for the Wall Street Journal from 1982 to 1984 who was convicted of insider trading on his own writing. Then-US Attorney’s Rudolf Guliani’s career-boosting crackdown on insider trading was in full swing, so Guiliani went after Winans for violating insider trading laws by leaking advance word of the contents of his columns to a Kidder, Peabody & Co., trader and receiving $31,000 in return. Winans admitted that his conduct was unethical but not criminal, which made no difference to the jury that ultimately convicted him, for which he served a year in prison. He then went on to a career of writing books and being a media pundit with regard to business crime cases such as the Martha Stewart case, yet his case remains controversial because it was the first time that insider trading laws had been extended to cover a columnist writing about companies with which he had no formal connection. The US Supreme Court ultimately deadlocked on whether the insider trading laws covered Winans’ actions.
With that backdrop, it’s not surprising that Winans has concluded that insider trading laws should be abolished (HT DealBreaker):

People invest in the market precisely because they think they know things others don’t. It could be as innocent as the belief that Apple will sell more iPods next year, or as questionable as a tip that a private equity group is going to make an offer for a utility.
In between are shipping clerks, accountants, taxi drivers, therapists, corporate officers and anyone else who acquires a bit of information and buys or sells stock hoping to gain an advantage.
Being against insider trading is like being against sin, the libertarian Harry Browne once observed. Like most sins, it principally offends those who don’t or can’t indulge; like most sins, it shouldn’t be a crime.

Winans’ article is O.K., but if you really want the goods on this topic, check out both Stephen Bainbridge and Larry Ribstein on the folly of criminalizing insider trading. Thom Lambert weighs in here, too.

Morgenson’s mortgage myths

sub-prime-mortgages-newtxt1932006.gifOver the past weekend, the New York Times business columnist Gretchen Morgenson continued her “sky is falling” bit with the regard to the subprime mortgage market (see prior post here). Larry Ribstein, who used to disassemble Morgenson’s columns on a weekly basis before tiring of it, somehow musters the energy to expose Morgenson’s vacuous analysis once again, which saves the rest of us from having to muck through her blather.
Nevertheless, it is rather shocking that a Pulitizer Prize-winning business columnist doesn’t take the time to understand that an equity investment in a company that originates subprime mortgages is very different from an investment in debt that is secured by pools of subprime mortgages (mortage-backed securities or “MBS’s”), which are designed to endure a temporary drop in house prices or rise in default rates. Consequently, while Morgenson wrings her hands over the fact that investing in subprime mortgage originators hasn’t been a good idea for the past year, she can’t explain why this means that the markets in subprime MBS’s are in serious trouble. The reality is that they probably aren’t.
But then again, maybe Morgenson doesn’t even understand the equity markets all that well. According to this NY Post article, Morgenson’s story mischaracterized the Bear Stearns recommendations on one of those nefarious subprime originators:

Bear Stearns is claiming that one of its analysts was done wrong in a scathing New York Times analysis of the collapsing subprime mortgage industry.
Bear analyst Scott Coren was described as having written “an upbeat report” about a collapsing subprime mortgage lender, New Century Financial, a company considered to be just days away from bankruptcy.
The article, written by Pulitzer prize-winning columnist Gretchen Morgenson, chronicled in a Page One article how Wall Street willingly created a burgeoning market for bonds-backed loans that were virtually certain to have trouble making their principal and interest payments. Coren, who upgraded his call on New Century on March 1, appeared to be portrayed in a conflict of interest to rival that of the notorious Internet bubble era.
But, in fact, Coren had made a series of gutsy calls on the subprime mortgage sector – no mean feat at Bear Stearns, a firm that in recent years has earned hundreds of millions of dollars annually from mortgage trading.
He put out a “sell”- called an “underperform” at Bear – when New Century stock was at $38 and maintained it until it slumped to $15.
Even Coren’s upgrade on March 1, when New Century was clearly beginning to collapse, advised investors to “stay on the sideline.”

Better rethink that conspiracy, Gretchen.

Boom Town, USA

Boomtown%20Casino_jpg.jpgMaybe it’s because I cut my teeth in business law during a prolonged recession in the Houston area in the mid-to-late 1980’s that followed a boom cycle earlier in the decade, but these kinds of articles always worry me a bit:

Galvanized by the record profits at energy companies, this city, the center of the countryís energy industry, has shaken off the effects of the Enron implosion six years ago and is enjoying its strongest resurgence in more than 20 years, business officials and real estate developers say.
Some energy companies are expanding and putting up new buildings. Others, like Citgo, Schlumberger and Halliburton, have moved their headquarters to Houston. Oil and natural gas companies have helped reduce office vacancy rates to 15 percent, a five-year low, according to Grubb & Ellis, a real estate company. Job growth is double the national average ó 97,400 jobs were created in 2006. The National Association of Realtors says the housing market in Houston is one of the strongest in the country.
ìThe increase in the oil business has made Houston,î said Randall Davis, a Houston condominium developer. ìIt feels a touch like the 1980s ó everyone is out, the restaurants are full, the bars are full. Itís like New York.î
The good news extends across the city. The port recently opened a $1.4 billion container terminal to tackle soaring traffic. In 2006, it handled 1.6 million 20-foot containers, up 29 percent from 2003. At the Texas Medical Center, hospitals and universities are investing billions in new facilities. Residential and mixed-use developments are going up downtown.

Read the entire article here. Houston in 2007 is a very different place than the Houston of 1985, particularly with regard to the more diversified local economy now than back then. But the energy industry remains the primary driver of the economy, although competition for that industry appears to be the bigger risk now than the price risk that has prompted the local economy’s boom and bust cycles through the years. This week’s announcement that Halliburton is moving its corporate headquarters from Houston to Dubai is a definite wakeup call for Houston’s leaders. Just as many Midwestern energy companies abandoned Tulsa for Houston over the past couple of decades, the same thing could happen to Houston as big energy concerns leave for greener pastures overseas.