The lucrative sacrificial lamb market in college football

lamb.jpgAlthough I enjoy most college sporting events, I have long maintained that the structure of major-college football in the US is fundamentally flawed (related post here). Along those lines, this NY Times article reports on a lucrative market that has evolved from the NCAA’s regulation of major college football — less successful football programs selling the opportunity to be a sacrificial lamb to the more successful programs:

The University at Buffalo football team went 1-10 last season and did not score a touchdown until the fourth game. For nearly a decade, it has been considered one of the worst teams in college football.
Buffalo is just the kind of opponent some of the nationís top-ranked teams are looking for ó and are paying rapidly rising prices to play this season. The Bulls will travel this coming season to play Auburn, a national title contender, and Wisconsin, a perennial Big Ten Conference power. Although Buffalo appears destined to be humiliated, the university will receive a $600,000 appearance check for each game.

Continue reading

Barbaro continues to beat the odds

barbaro eating roses3.jpgThis NY Times article continues its excellent coverage of the recovery of Kentucky Derby champion Barbaro from a life-threatening injury suffered in the Preakness Stakes (previous posts here). The article does a good job of explaining the tremendous resources that are being deployed to attempt to save the horse’s life, which could still have great financial value if the horse can recover sufficiently to be leased as a stallion for breeding purposes.
Although Barbaro’s health is still at great risk, the thoroughbred no longer needs the sling that was used immediately after surgery to keep weight off the horse’s legs and the epidurals that he required for pain have not been necessary for several weeks. Moreover, Barbaro is now being walked outside each day in a field and being allowed to graze. As a result, the horse is appearing to become stronger by the day. Stay tuned.

Quattrone walks, but what about Andersen?

frank quattrone.jpgFormer CSFB investment banker Frank Quattrone’s ordeal came to a close yesterday as the Court in the criminal case against him approved a deferred-prosecution agreement under which the charges will be dropped in a year and Mr. Quattrone was not required to pay a fine or admit any wrongdoing.

Thus, apart from the enormous cost of the prior litigation and having this talented businessman out of work for the past five years, at least Quattrone can now get back to his career and, as Peter Lattman notes, recover $120 million that he has coming to him.

But the same cannot be said for Arthur Andersen, which was prosecuted out of business under similar circumstances as Quattrone.

Just as Mr. Quattrone was never charged any criminal offense related to investment banking, Andersen was not prosecuted for providing fraudulent accounting services to its client, Enron.

Rather, appealing to the dynamics of resentment of wealthy and powerful business interests in the aftermath of Enron’s demise, Quattrone and Andersen were both indicted for obstruction of justice and witness-tampering related almost entirely to a single email that Quattrone and Andersen in-house counsel Nancy Temple sent reminding employees of each organization to clean up there files in accordance with each company’s document retention policy.

Instead of undertaking the difficult task of proving that either Quattrone or Andersen were really involved in any fraudulent acts, prosecutors in both cases portrayed the emails as a criminal cover-up. Then, without basis, the prosecutors liberally “suggested” in inflammatory public statements and during trial that Quattrone and Andersen were involved in fraud.

The prosecution of Quattrone was costly, but that cost pales in comparison to the economic damage that the Justice Department caused in prosecuting an American accounting institution and its 30,000 employees out of business. Despite that, similar misguided prosecutions continue.

This is simply not a rational deployment of the prosecutorial resources of our criminal justice system.

John McClain can’t help himself

pitts_school090704a.jpgGiven the largely meaningless nature of NFL pre-season football, I’m holding off on posting my annual pre-season blog post on the Texans until the first regular season game is close at hand. But given the Chronicle’s blanket coverage of the Texans’ training camp, it’s a bit hard to overlook the cheerleading doozies that the Chronicle writers generate almost daily about their hometown heroes.
With the exception of a couple of comments such as this one last week, Chronicle NFL columnist John McClain has generally been more careful this pre-season than he was last pre-season when he was predicting that the Texans were primed to make a playoff run. However, McClain simply cannot contain his cheerleading for the Texans at times, such as the following comment about Texans guard Chester Pitts, who is competing for a job in the area of one of the Texans’ traditionally weakest areas, the offensive line:

“It seems strange that Pitts is having to compete for a starting job, considering he’s never missed a play in four seasons while moving between left tackle and left guard.”

Pitts has been a member of the Texans offensive line that has been the worst pass-blocking line in the NFL for the past four seasons. Last season, Football Prospectus attributed 40 of the quarterback sacks that QB David Carr endured directly to blown blocks of the offensive line, which was the highest number in the NFL among offensive lines. Pitts had six of those blown blocks for sacks, which was the second-most on the line (Todd Wade, who is no longer with the team, was the leader with eight). Pitts has also been one of the most-penalized offensive linemen in the NFL during his four years in the league.
Thus, from my vantage point, it does not seem strange at all that Pitts is competing for a starting job. In fact, it reflects progress that he is.

What’s really behind the Andrew Young-Wal-Mart flap

wal_mart logo2.gifThis NY Times article reports on the flap over the recent remarks of Andrew Young, the colleague of Martin Luther King who went on to become the first black congressman from Georgia since Reconstruction and one of Atlanta’s most prominent politicians.
Young had recently become a consultant for Wal-Mart, but that particular job didn’t last long after Young was quoted during a recent interview “defending” Wal-Mart as not being so bad for black people because Jewish, Arab and Korean store owners had traditionally ìripped offî black neighborhoods by ìselling us stale bread and bad meat and wilted vegetables.î Concluding that Young’s defense of the company was faint praise, Wal-Mart understandably let him go.
As would be expected, the Times article focuses on the angst that Young’s remarks has generated among the folks who are preoccupied with race relations, but Larry Ribstein observes the much more troubling dynamic that is truly behind Young’s remarks:

I don’t believe civil rights hero Young is a bigot. But unfortunately the bigoted nature of his remarks will draw attention from the real prejudice here — against capitalism. It’s really all about people who want to make a profit, and those who insist that this is a zero sum game that has to be ripping off the customers.
The result of this attitude is anti-Wal-Mart laws like the one coming up in Chicago that hurt the very people Young fought to defend. Even when hired to defend Wal-Mart, Young couldn’t resist bashing it, and others who tried to make a buck.

Meanwhile, along the same lines, Jeff Matthews analyzes Senator Joe Biden’s recent anti-Wal-Mart remarks and how they reveal the leadership void within the Democratic Party. Check it out.
Update: The always-insightful Holman Jenkins of the Wall Street Journal chimes in with this column ($) echoing the same thoughts and more.

Grundfest Takes on the Sad Case of Jamie Olis

A heavyweight has entered the ring on behalf of Jamie Olis.

The WSJ’s Peter Lattman reports that Joseph A. Grundfest, W.A. Franke Professor of Law at Stanford University and one of the leading securities law experts in the US, is donating his services to Olis on a pro bono basis in regard to the key issue of market loss in Olis’ upcoming September 12th resentencing hearing.

Olis’ case is arguably the most egregious product of the government’s increasing criminalization of business interests in this particular post-bubble era.

In Olis’ most recent sentencing memorandum, Grundfest and Olis appellate attorney David Gerger expand on many of the points that have been raised over the past two and a half years on this blog regarding the flimsy basis of the government’s position that Olis should be imprisoned for at least the next two decades, particularly the government’s disingenuous market loss theory.

As noted in this previous post relating to the Enron-related Nigerian Barge trial, the prosecution misled U.S. District Judge Sim Lake regarding the proper method for calculating the market loss in connection with the original sentencing of Olis, and then has ignored subsequent decisions that have undermined the spurious market loss theory that it has employed in the Olis case.

The prosecution in the Olis case won’t be able to dodge facing the misleading nature of its market loss theory any longer.

In a devastating analysis of the government’s market loss theory, Professor Grundfest’s declaration attached to the Olis’ sentencing memo disassembles the work of the prosecution’s market loss expert, Frank Graves. Professor Grundfest summarizes his critique in the following manner:

The Graves Declaration fails to establish that Project Alpha inflated Dynegy’s stock price on any date by any amount. It also fails to establish that any portion of Dynegy’s stock price decline on April 25, 26, or May 8, 2002 is attributable to Project Alpha. the Graves Declaration’s methodology for measuring price declines caused by Project Alpha is also internally inconsistent with Graves’ prior report in another matter.

It also fails to recognize that Dynegy’s stock price rebounded significantly on April 30 (the second trading day following April 26) when the market was informed that concerns regarding Project Alpha had been exaggerated. It further fails to adjust for the presence of confounding information that entered the market on May 8, 2002.

The Graves Declaration also relies on methodologies that are broadly criticized in the scholarly literature, and repeatedly commits logical errors. The Government has therefore failed to demonstrate through the Graves Declaration that Project Alpha has caused any loss whatsoever to any investor at any time. . . .

The methodologies relied upon by the Graves Declaration to calculate the number of damaged shares have been broadly criticized in the academic literature and have been rejected by several courts. The damage measure relied upon by the Graves Declaration has also been broadly criticized in the academic literature because, even if perfectly applied, it fails to measure the economic loss caused by aftermarket frauds such as Project Alpha. This well-established literature helps explain the Second Circuit’s observation that the methodology applied by the Graves Declaration can lead to “Draconian, exorbitant damages, out of all proportion to the wrong committed . . .” [citation deleted]

Finally, . . . the magnitude of a settlement paid to resolve a private class action lawsuit is not a reliable measure of the loss caused by a fraud.

Other than that, Professor Grundfest would presumably conclude that the Graves analysis is just fine.

Professor Grundfest’s declaration is one of the most thorough and well-reasoned analyses that I have read regarding the vagaries of attempting to attribute huge market losses in a company’s stock to one of a plethora of events and variables that affect that company’s stock price. I recommend reading the entire declaration.

Although the focus of the Olis sentencing memo is market loss, one other part of the memo jumped out at me.

On pp. 5-6, the memo outlines over a dozen company executives, Arthur Andersen accountants, and outside lawyers — almost all of whom were senior in status to Olis — who participated in devising and analyzing the transaction for which Olis was prosecuted.

Nevertheless, only Olis and his two immediate supervisors (who copped pleas and testified against Olis) were prosecuted.

As Larry Ribstein has eloquently contended over the past two years on his blog and most recently in his paper The Perils of Criminalizing Corporate Agency Costs, are we really prepared to throw all corporate actors in prison for participating in the type of risk-taking involved in Project Alpha?:

Disciplining agents also requires pinning responsibility for corporate failure on particular people in the organization.

If someone should be criminally responsible for obscuring Enron’s financial condition, who should it be?:

the midlevel executives who designed the misleading structures,

the executive officers who signed off on them,

the independent directors who failed to object,

the lawyers, accountants, banks and other executives who enabled them,

anybody who knew about them and didn’t speak up,

the whistleblower who told only those within the organization,

Or all of the above?

Unfortunately, in Olis’ case, it turned out to be the junior executive taking directions from superiors who had the audacity to assert his innocence at trial. Chalk it up to the increasingly high price of asserting innocence in business-related prosecutions.

Although Professor Grundfest’s salutary effort on behalf of Olis is heartening and one that should buttress his already exemplary reputation, Olis still faces daunting hurdles to having a just sentence assessed in his case.

Professor Grundfest’s analysis of Graves’ market loss opinion reveals its essential lack of objectivity, so Graves will literally be fighting for his expert witness life in this case. Thus, it should be expected that he will respond to the Grundfest declaration by attempting to bolster his earlier opinion.

Similarly, Judge Lake, who levied the original 24 year sentence against Olis, will be resentencing Olis. Inasmuch as no judge — particularly one as competent as Judge Lake — enjoys being reversed by an appellate court, Olis faces the risk that Judge Lake will attempt to justify his original harsh sentence during the resentencing.

However, similar to his colleague Ewing Werlein, Judge Lake is a man of unusual depth, so my bet is that he will recognize that the prosecution misled him regarding the market loss issue during Olis’ original sentencing and will correct the stark injustice of that sentence.

As Professor Ribstein points out in his post on the Grundfest declaration, “Olis’ sentence has become an important symbol of the excesses of criminal prosecutions in the wake of Enron. Freeing Olis would be a start toward correcting these injustices.”

An Enronesque public scam

Spitzer60.jpgThis NY Times article reveals a scam that New York AG (“attorney general” or “aspiring governor,” take your pick) Eliot Spitzer won’t touch with a ten-foot pole:
Every year since 1999, New York City has reported that it has all the money it needs to pay for the pensions that have been promised to city workers.

With the retirement plans said to be financially sound, state politicians have happily showered city employees with generous pension enhancements ó annual cost-of-living increases, holiday bonus payments, early retirement with full benefits ó that are the envy of private-sector workers, whose pension benefits have eroded.
But a close inspection of city pension records shows that the funds committed to the plans may fall well short of the cityís promises to hundreds of thousands of current and retired workers. They look fully funded chiefly because the city has been using an unusual pension calculation that does not comply with accepted government accounting rules. Even the cityís chief actuary, who helps produce the annual reports, says the official numbers are ìmeaninglessî when it comes to showing the plansí financial health.
The chief actuary, Robert C. North, has prepared a little-noticed set of alternative calculations showing that the gap in the pension funds could be as wide as $49 billion. That is nearly the size of the cityís entire annual budget and the equivalent of the cityís publicly disclosed outstanding debt.[ . . .]

Continue reading

Judge Jack v. AG Abbott

Greg Abbott.jpgJanis Jack.jpgBased on this NY Sun article, it sure doesn’t appear as if U.S. District Judge Janis Jack of Corpus Christi is going to be exchanging holiday greeting cards with Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott this year.
Judge Jack publicly rebuked Abbott last week when she learned that evidence in the investigation into potentially fraudulent silicosis claims in her court had disappeared after Abbott’s office sent four armed agents on June 23 to seize thousands of x-rays from a Corpus Christi storage facility that was maintaining the documents for the federal court. After Judge Jack learned about the seizure on July 5 and ordered Abbott’s office to return the documents by high noon the following day and Abbott’s office returned about 40 boxes, the records custodian reported to Judge Jack that 152 X-rays had disappeared. After an assistant attorney general informed Judge Jack during a conference call between the court and attorneys involved in the cases last week that Abbott’s office does not have the missing x-rays, Judge Jack blasted Abbott:

“The arrogance of taking those documents from a federal court-supervised depository is astounding. The attorney general of the state of Texas has exhibited a total disregard for the rule of law by doing this.”

Judge Jack made waves last year when she recommended throwing out all but one of about 10,000 silicosis lawsuits because the diagnoses appeared to be “manufactured for money.” Her ruling has generated a number of investigations, including by a congressional committee, federal prosecutors and Abbott’s office.
Hat tip to Walter Olsen for the link to the NY Sun article.

The PGA channels the Ryder Cup

Rydercup06logo.jpgAs Tiger Woods strolled to his 12th victory in a major golf championship yesterday (second now only to Jack Nicklaus’ 18 major wins), the big news out of Medinah was the confirmation of the ten players who earned a spot on this year’s American Ryder Cup team, which will compete against the European team on September 22-24 at the K Club in Straffan, Ireland, about 25 miles west of Dublin:
1. Tiger Woods
2. Phil Mickelson
3. Jim Furyk
4. Chad Campbell
5. David Toms
6. Chris DiMarco
7. Vaughn Taylor
8. J.J. Henry
9. Zach Johnson
10. Brett Wetterich

Continue reading

Jose de Jesus Ortiz said what?

taveras_74009.jpgAs the Stros playoff hopes fade with each passing loss, the Chronicle’s Stros beat writer — Jose de Jesus Ortiz — continues to show that he does not truly understand baseball and, as a result, has become a conduit of Stros propaganda to the public.
Fresh off his woeful analysis of Preston Wilson, de Jesus Ortiz blows it again with this fawning column entitled Patience, coaching help turn Taveras around in which he contends that good coaching from the Stros coaching staff has helped Taveras generate his current 22-game hitting streak and make him a good player again. In so doing, de la Ortiz shows that — despite covering baseball on a daily basis — he is incapable of properly analyzing the subject that he covers. For example, de la Ortiz observes as follows:

“As a rookie in 2005, Taveras was the Astros’ most pleasant surprise while finishing second in the voting for National League Rookie of the Year honors. He steadily improved his defense and used his near world-class speed to leg out infield singles.
[Stros Manager] Phil Garner opted to sacrifice offense for defense at shortstop, but somehow Taveras’ solid offense wasn’t deemed strong enough to keep his strong defense on the field as Chris Burke got hot in late May.”

As noted last season here, Taveras had a below National League-average season in 2005 and had no business being considered for Rookie-of-the-Year honors. Although Taveras’ defense did improve over the course of last season, Taveras was one of the worst hitters among regular players in the National League last season. His slugging percentage (.341), on-base average (.325), extra-base hits (20 in 635 plate appearances), walks (25) and runs created against average (-13) were all far below an average National League hitter. Moreover, Taveras is even worse this year with a .329 slugging percentage, .324 on-base average and an RCAA of -17, meaning that Taveras has generated 17 fewer runs this season than an average National League hitter would have generated making the same number of outs that Taveras has made. Even Taveras stolen base rate (34 out of 45 or 75%) is not all that great considering his speed. In short, Taveras is not a good offensive player and, as noted in this earlier post, has absolutely no business batting lead-off in the relatively rare occasions that he should be playing.

Continue reading