More daunting news for GM

car salesman.jpgThis earlier post on General Motors’ descent into a possible (probable?) bankruptcy case speculated that car buyers would be relunctant to make a long-term purchase of an asset from a bankrupt company. Related posts on GM’s financial problems are here.
Backing up that speculation is this Autoblog post noting that only 26% of those polled in a recent Directions Research Inc. survey of over 1,000 randomly-selected adults said that they would purchase or lease a new car from an automaker that had gone into the tank. Lower-income buyers said that they were less likely than more affluent buyers to buy a car from a bankrupt automaker as just 20% of those earning under $25,000 a year would buy or lease a car from a debtor-automaker while almost a third of those earning more than $100,000 said that they would do so.
GM appears to be lurching to that most unfortunate position of needing to wash through a reorganization case, but not being in a position to afford the cost of the financial cleansing.
Meanwhile, the “B” word is a prominent part of this recent interview with GM CEO, Rick Wagoner.

That sinking Galveston feeling

galveston.gifDon’t allow the publication on Christmas Day of this important Eric Berger/Chronicle story entitled “Rising Growth, Sinking Fortunes” about erosion on Galveston Island. Berger, who is the Chronicle’s SciGuy, consistently generates many of the local newspaper’s most insightful research articles:

GALVESTON – Geology has aligned its forces against this narrow strip of land, causing it to sink a few inches more every decade.
Though subsidence has caused much of the sinking in recent decades, it’s not the only culprit. If oceans continue to warm as expected, sea-level rise could cripple much of the island by century’s end. And as the waters rise, waves, tides and especially tropical storms will wash ever more sand away.
This might be little more than an academic exercise for geologists and conservationists but for one fact: Galveston Island, with 60,000 residents, is booming. It’s impossible to drive along the island’s West End without passing construction trucks. Six developers have planned or begun building residential communities.
Unfortunately, this low-lying West End, beyond the reach of the protective seawall, will feel the problems of subsidence, sea-level rise and coastal erosion soonest.

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Comparing urban boondoggles

boondoggle logo.jpgTory Gattis asks the right questions regarding Houston’s latest proposed urban boondoggle, but it’s at least somewhat comforting to know that other cities are pondering even bigger boondoggles.
In Chicago, Mayor Richard Daley is floating a plan to build a new $1 billion dollar domed stadium to attract a second NFL team, the Super Bowl, the 2016 Olympic Games, the NCAA Final Four, and perhaps an unending string of monster truck shows to the Windy City. Brad Humphreys over at the Sports Economist comments on the absurdity of this proposal:

For those with short attention spans, Soldier Field, home of the NFL’s Chicago Bears, underwent a $365 million dollar publicly financed renovation in 2002. But someone forgot to enlarge Soldier Field and build a roof during the renovation. Its 61,500 seat capacity is second smallest in the NFL, and too small to host the opening and closing ceremonies at the Olympics.

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What’s the deal with Richard Justice?

richard justice2.gifChronicle sportswriter Richard Justice — who still has a difficult time accepting Stros owner Drayton McLane’s decision of over a year ago not to retain former Stros GM Gerry Hunsicker — rarely misses an opportunity to slam McLane and current Stros GM Tim Purpura, even during the Christmas season.
In today’s broadside, Justice castigates McLane and Purpura for everything from raising ticket prices to firing former Stros broadcaster Alan Ashby, and then levels the following criticism about the Stros’ off-season personnel decisions:

If people keep reminding Tim Purpura he has been on the job 14 months without acquiring a player of consequence, he’s going to feel compelled to do something stupid.
Maybe that’s why he offered Nomar Garciaparra $6 million. That’s a lot of money for a player out much of the last two seasons with injuries. Truth is, a left-field platoon of Luke Scott and Chris Burke might be as productive as Garciaparra.
Maybe that’s also why there are reports Purpura would be willing to trade Brad Lidge.
If Purpura had signed Garciaparra, the next move should have been docking him a month’s pay. If he trades Lidge, he should be fired.
Money is too tight to throw at a player with a history of breaking down. And trading Lidge would be so monumentally stupid, it’s almost beyond discussion.

H’mm, a platoon of the 28 year-old Luke Scott and the 26 year-old Chris Burke might be as productive as the 32 year-old Garciaparra? Let’s take a look at their respective career statistics to date:

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2005 Weekly local football review

Texans.jpgJaguars 38 Texans 20

The 2-13 Texans got a leg up on the 3-12 49er’s in next weekend’s Reggie Bush Bowl in San Francisco as the Jags scorched them for 21 points in the final quarter to put this one on ice. The local media was agog over Texans QB David Carr throwing for 295 yards on 29 attempts with a couple of reasonably long TD passes, but he also threw his obligatory tipped-pass-at-the-line-of-scrimmage (largely the result of Carr’s defective throwing motion) for an interception, which set up one of the Jags’ fourth quarter TD’s. Assuming that the Texans don’t blow the first pick in the 2006 NFL Draft by beating the 49er’s on New Year’s Day, the team not only has to decide whether to draft Bush (an easy decision, in my view), but whether to pick up what appears to be a fairly expensive $8 million option on Carr. My sense is that the Texans will probably do so, although the market for free agent QB’s will likely have an impact on the decision. Nevertheless, two things remain clear about Carr — the Texans made a mistake in making him the no. 1 draft pick in team history and he is not good enough to make an offense with a deficient line even average in the NFL.

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The Game of a Lifetime

augusta national.jpgOn this Christmas Day, take a moment to read this heartwarming story (pdf here) about a daughter arranging the golfing gift of a lifetime for a father who gave of his life selflessly, and a member of Augusta National Golf Club who understands the true meaning of giving.
Merry Christmas and thank you for reading Houston’s Clear Thinkers.

Thinking about the WSJ’s Enron conflict of interest

The Chronicle’s Loren Steffy thinks I’m stretching a bit in noting the conflict of interest that the Wall Street Journal has apparently decided to overlook in allowing John Emshwiller to report on the upcoming trial of the Enron Task Force’s legacy case against key former Enron executives Ken Lay, Jeff Skilling and Richard Causey.

Candidly, I don’t think the point is a stretch at all. The following explains why.

Along with many others, Emshwiller has promoted the now common theme that Enron was merely a house of cards and that the company’s intrinsic instability was hidden from the investing public by a deceitful management team.

That view has been readily embraced by a wide-range of societal forces, such as publicity-seeking politicians who don’t allow facts to get in the way of demonizing unpopular entrepreneurs for political gain, government prosecutors who improperly expand the reach of criminal laws to further their careers, competing businesspeople and lawyers seeking to profit from Enron’s demise, and a general public that finds it easy to resent wealthy businesspeople, particularly after the bursting of a stock market bubble.

These societal forces believe that they understand the Enron morality play so thoroughly that otherwise thoughtful and intelligent people lose the capacity for independent thought regarding Enron and reject any notion of ambiguity or fair-minded analysis in ferreting out the truth of what really happened at Enron.

Unfortunately, this common view of Enron ignores the more nuanced view of a growing number of business experts who have studied Enron’s core businesses and have a far better understanding of Enron’s business practices than most of those who have promoted the Enron morality play.

In many ways, Enron was an innovative firm, both in its primary business activities and in the ways in which it raised money. Experts in structured finance and derivatives recognize this and have already written extensively about Enron’s remarkable innovation (see, for example, Christopher Culp and William Niskanen‘s Corporate Aftershock: The Policy Lessons from Enron and Other Major Corporate Corporations and Culp’s subsequent book, Risk Transfer: Derivatives in Theory and Practice).

Even Enron’s original purpose in using special purpose entities (“SPE’s”) — at least before former Enron CFO Andrew Fastow and henchman Michael Kopper hijacked them — was sound and creative.

With equity owned primarily by investment banks and other financial institutions, the SPE’s were initially intended to be private equity funds with completely separate management from Enron. The main attraction of the SPE’s for investors was the funds’ preferred right to invest in Enron assets, which benefited Enron by allowing the company to preserve liquidity and hedge risk.

A side effect of this drive toward innovation was that Enron pushed the edge of the envelope between beneficial innovation, on one hand, and excessively complicated transactions that appear to have been designed to confuse more than to accomplish a legitimate business purpose, on the other. Fastow and Kopper’s shenanigans with certain of Enron’s SPE’s are a good example of the latter type of activity.

Nevertheless, Enron was engaged in mostly legitimate and beneficial financial activities, including energy trading, structured finance and other financing transactions that had literally never been attempted before, and certainly never on the scale that Enron generated them.

The societal demonization of Enron contributed substantially to an enormous amount of unnecessary wealth loss as many of the markets for such beneficial and innovative financial transactions shriveled in the wake of Enron’s liquidation.

Consequently, it is critically important in determining the truth of what happened at Enron — particularly when the futures of three men and their families are at risk — to distinguish between Enron’s role as a legitimate, innovative company and the fraud that took place.

Emshwiller’s already published views toward Enron reflect that he is a poor choice to make that key distinction.

In fact, the situation with Emshwillier, the WSJ and Enron is eerily reminiscent of a situation that arose at the Journal almost 20 years ago in connection with Rudolf Giuliani’s career-boosting prosecution of Michael Milken.

Back then, it was WSJ reporter James Stewart who became the mouthpiece for Giuliani’s propaganda campaign that demonized Milken’s revolutionary financing techniques that literally unlocked billions in shareholder wealth during the 1980’s.

Stewart followed up his highly misleading WSJ reporting on Milken with a book that perpetuated the same prosecutorial myths about Milken and utterly ignored Milken’s role in the tremendous wealth creation and innovation in financial markets that occurred during the 1980’s.

Daniel Fischel brilliantly exposed both Stewart and Giuliani’s duplicity with regard to Milken in his 1995 book, Payback: The Conspiracy to Destroy Michael Milken and his Financial Revolution. Despite the wise perspective that Fischel provides regarding the grave danger to justice, the rule of law and wealth creation that results from unleashing the power of government against the unpopular businessperson of the moment, precious few of the hundreds of people with whom I have spoken or corresponded regarding the Enron case even know about Fischel’s book, much less have read it.

Given the WSJ’s experience with Stewart in the Milken debacle, it’s at least odd that the Journal appears to be overlooking the high risk that a similar journalistic failure may occur in regard to Emshwiller’s coverage of the Lay-Skilling-Causey trial.

The warning signs are clearly there — Emshwiller completely missed on the government’s overreaching destruction of Arthur Andersen and has largely ignored the prosecutorial misconduct that has marred the Enron Task Force’s handling of all of the Enron-related prosecutions.

Perhaps most notably, Emshwiller has said virtually nothing about the outrageous miscarriage of justice that landed four Merrill Lynch executives in jail for doing nothing other than being involved in a relatively small transaction with the social pariah Enron.

So, count me as skeptical that Emshwiller is capable of providing the type of objective reporting regarding the Lay-Skilling-Causey trial that readers of America’s leading financial newspaper deserve.

The Wall Street Journal can do much better.

The integration of the University of Texas football program

whittier.2.184.jpgWhen the University of Texas plays USC for the BCS National Football Championship in the Rose Bowl on January 4, 2006, the Longhorn football team will be attempting to win its first undisputed national football title since 1969, which happened to be the last all-white college football team to win the national football championship.
This NY Times article tells the story about the integration of the Texas football program, including the not well-known story of how former Major League Baseball player and manager Don Baylor almost became the first black football player at the University of Texas in the mid-1960’s, how former President Lyndon Johnson used to help recruit football players for UT, and the interesting story of Julius Whittier, the first black student-athlete to play football at the University of Texas.

My kind of Econoblog

baseball_free agents.gifThe Wall Street Journal is running another chapter in its free Econoblog series, and the current installment pits the original Sports Economist Skip Sauer against SabernomicsJohn-Charles Bradbury discussing the free agent market in Major League Baseball this winter. Among the many interesting observations from these two sharp experts on the economics of baseball is the following from Professor Sauer on the super-heated free agent market for relief pitchers:

[T]his is the year of the reliever in the free-agent market. And if their contracts are anywhere near full value, that is one heck of an interesting observation. Why, you ask? Because it debunks an age-old claim that is inconsistent with economic analysis. The claim dates back to the origin of free agency, via arbitrator Peter Seitz’s decision in the McNally-Messersmith case (like the arbitrator in the recent Terrell Owens case, Seitz was abruptly fired, in his case by the owners). After Seitz’s decision, the owners and players both feared for the worst should full-blown free agency emerge in baseball’s marketplace. They proceeded to negotiate a collective-bargaining agreement which protected owners’ interests (by giving young players limited bargaining power), along with the interests of journeymen, allegedly, by limiting the supply of free agents.

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Robert Durst’s rather odd holiday season

durst-shock111103.jpgYou just never know who you are going to bump into during the holiday season at Houston’s famed Galleria shopping mall.
Robert Durst — the wealthy heir who was acquitted of murder after killing his neighbor, chopping up the body and throwing it into Galveston Bay — bumped into Galveston state district judge Susan Criss earlier this month at the Galleria. Judge Criss presided over Durst’s controversial trial, and ultimately had to be removed from the case by an appellate court after she refused to set a reasonable bond for Durst’s release under a plea bargain. Durst is currently back in Harris County jail awaiting a hearing on an alleged parole violation. The following is how Judge Criss characterized for the Chronicle her Galleria encounter with Durst:

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