Debating American foreign policy

John Lewis Gaddis is the Robert A. Lovett professor of history and political science Yale University and Paul Kennedy is the J. Richardson Dilworth professor of history at the same school. In this NY Times Book Review interview, the two debate their views on American foreign policy. The entire piece is well worth reading, and the following are a couple of tidbits of their insights:

How Did 9/11 Change America’s Thinking About Foreign Policy?
GADDIS. The whole premise of our thinking had been that threats come from states. Then suddenly, overnight, levels of damage were done exceeding those at Pearl Harbor by a gang most of us had never heard of. That is a profound change in the national security environment. It exposes a level of vulnerability that Americans have not seen since they were living on the edge of a dangerous frontier 150 years ago.
KENNEDY. I’d agree, and then add another slant. The whole system of international law was predicated upon states. There’s no thought given in the U.N. Charter to nonstate actors. There needs to be agreement on what states can do now with threats from nonstate actors.

Does the United States Have an Empire?
GADDIS. The really important question is to look at the uses to which imperial power is put. And in this regard, it seems to me on balance American imperial power in the 20th century has been a remarkable force for good, for democracy, for prosperity. What is striking is that great opposition has not arisen to the American empire. Most empires in history have given rise to their own resistance through their imperious behavior. For most of its history as an empire, the United States did manage to be imperial without being imperious. The great concern I have with the current administration is that it has slid over into imperious behavior.
KENNEDY. John has put his finger on something very interesting, which is this dominant position of the U.S. not yet causing the emergence of counterweights. And I say ”yet” because I think there’s quite a considerable danger that it will. We now have a Europe with a larger G.D.P., and we have a China growing so fast you can hardly keep your eyes on it. Our great power status is unchallenged at the orthodox military level. But it’s beginning to look a little bit more fragmented in other dimensions.

Stros pummel Brew Crew

Pete Munro pitched seven shutout innings and Mike Lamb drove in three runs with a pair of doubles to lead the Stros over the Brewers 9-1 on Sunday in the rubber game of their weekend series at the Juice Box. The Stros have now won four of their last five games.
After giving up a pair of singles to lead off the second inning, Munro (2-2/4.46 ERA/0 RSAA) settled down and retired 13 of his next 15 batters. He allowed six hits, struck out a season-high five and walked none.
The Stros took a 4-0 lead in the third on Lamb’s bases-loaded double off the left-field scoreboard and Morgan Ensberg‘s two-run single. Lamb, who started at first in place of Bags, made it 5-0 in the fifth with an RBI double, and Adam Everett doubled in another run in the sixth.
In one of the more entertaining moments of the game, Jeff Kent was ejected by plate umpire Chris Guccione in the seventh after arguing a called strike two on a pitch Kent thought was low. Kent — who, as baseball people say “has a little turd in him” and yelled at Guccione “with sincerity” — kicked and threw dirt on home plate before he left the field with gusto. Jose Vizcaino replaced Kent with a 2-2 count and promptly nailed an RBI double on the next pitch. After a run-scoring wild pitch, Brad Ausmus cranked a rare yak to complete the Stros’ scoring. The Stros ended up with 12 hits, five of them doubles.
Despite the Stros’ power surge over the past week, their runs created against average (“RCAA,” explained here) continues to lag near the bottom of the National League (11th out of the 16 teams). Here are the updated individual RCAA figures, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Lance Berkman 35
Craig Biggio 13
Carlos Beltran 8
Jeff Bagwell 7
Mike Lamb 6
Eric Bruntlett 1
Chris Burke -1
Jeff Kent -1
Jason Lane -2
Jose Vizcaino -3
Orlando Palmeiro -4
Richard Hidalgo -10
Raul Chavez -11
Morgan Ensberg -12
Adam Everett -13
Brad Ausmus -23
Thus, the Stros have only five players who are hitting above what an average player would generate and four regular players (Ausmus, Chavez, Ensberg, and Everett) who are hitting well below what an average player would produce. Inasmuch as Ensberg is the only likely candidate of those four to improve much during the second half of the season, and Bagwell is unlikely to increase his relatively pedestrian production during the remainder of the season. Consequently, I do not expect the Stros’ offense to improve enough in the second half to make them a viable playoff contender.
Meanwhile, the Stros pitchers’ runs saved against average (“RSAA,” explained here) remains in the upper half of the National League (sixth out of the 16 teams). The individual RSAA numbers are as follows:
Roger Clemens 23
Brad Lidge 13
Wade Miller 11
Roy Oswalt 9
Octavio Dotel 5
Dan Miceli 4
Andy Pettitte 3
Kirk Bullinger 1
Mike Gallo 1
Darren Oliver 1
Pete Munro 0
Chad Qualls -1
David Weathers -1
Brandon Backe -2
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Ricky Stone -3
Jared Fernandez -6
Chad Harville -6
Brandon Duckworth -8
Tim Redding -11
Although the pitching staff is performing above-average overall, the production is still a bit deceptive. Miller and Dotel, both of whom contributed above-average production, are no longer pitching for the club (Dotel has been traded and Miller’s return this season is questionable at this point due to a shoulder injury). Moreover, Harville, Duckworth and Redding are time bombs every time they take the mound, as their well-below average RSAA numbers reflect. Oswalt is a definite candidate to improve his RSAA during the second half and Redding could if he returns to his form of last season, but some leveling off of Clemens‘ incredible performance is to be expected. Accordingly, even though I expect the Stros’ pitching performance to remain above-average, I do not expect the performance to improve enough over the last part of the season to compensate for the Stros’ below average hitting and allow the Stros to compete for the wildcard playoff spot.
And, just so you will not be misinformed by the Chronicle sportswriters’ baseless criticism of Stros’ management for trading Hidalgo, Wagner, and Dotel, each of those three players has had decidedly mediocre performance this season. Although Hidalgo has a +5 RCAA since joining the Mets, he is still a -5 for the season, which makes him the best paid below average rightfielder in the National League. Dotel has a barely above average RSAA when his numbers from Houston and Oakland are combined, and Wagner has battled injuries all season while posting a relatively mediocre +5 RSAA for the Phillies. Truth be known, Stros’ management did a good job in trading each one of those players, particularly given the over-market contracts that both Hidalgo and Wagner enjoy.
The Stros send Andy Pettiitte to the hill on Monday in the first game of a four game set with the DBacks at the Juice Box. After that series, the Stros go to Cincy for a weekend series with the Reds before returning home in the first week of August for a six game homestand against the Braves and Expos.

UT-ex Ricky Williams announces retirement

Former University of Texas star running back and Heisman Trophy winner Ricky Williams has stunned the Miami Dolphins and the National Football League by announcing his retirement from professional football while in the prime of his career.

Mike Ramsey interviewed

Following on this earlier Wall Street Journal ($) profile, Mary Flood, who has been covering the Enron case for the Houston Chronicle, interviews Mike Ramsey, lead criminal defense attorney for Kenneth Lay, in today’s Chronicle. Not much of Mr. Ramsey’s insight on the Enron case is provided in the interview, although Mr. Ramsey does comment on Mr. Lay’s controversial strategy of vigorously defending himself in public statements, interviews, and press conferences from the criminal charges:

Q: Other lawyers have said you are taking risks in letting Lay speak publicly now and in demanding a speedy trial. Why have you chosen these strategies?
A: I think basically at the behest of Mr. Lay. I have been over the documents enough to know and trust that he is, in fact, innocent. But he has been silent for two and a half years, while he has suffered a lot in the press. I think it’s about time that he speaks out.
Now, it is a high-risk strategy in some cases to have a defendant testify. But Ken Lay is smart, he’s the master of the facts, he knows what happened, and I don’t have to go hold hands with him when he talks.

Another interesting comment comes after Mr. Ramsey explains why he decided to go into the practice of criminal law:

. . . [I]f there is a danger to the Republic, it comes from concentration of power in the hands of a few in Washington, not from an outside force of any sort. We’re impervious to that.
No one will topple America from the outside. But we may very well lose liberties internally. And if people are not willing to stand up and challenge the government, then the government continues to assume more and more power over us as individuals.
Until you see how vicious it becomes out on the point of a stick where it pierces flesh, you don’t understand how powerful the government really is and needs to be held in check.
And if there is any redeeming social value to the defense practice, it is that we are the people to whom it is given the high duty, I believe, to stand up and tell the government to go to hell when they need to be told that.
And this is such a case.
Q: Do you see the Enron Task Force as part of this potential growing evil?
A: Yes. I think that the constitution of any special group of prosecutors who pick their target before they do their investigation is dangerous and an aberration that shouldn’t be tolerated.

Stros beat Brew Crew

Tim Redding pitched three-hit ball over five innings in his return to Stros’ starting rotation as the Stros beat the Brewers 6-3 on Saturday night at the Juice Box.
Redding (4-6/5.66 ERA/-14 RSAA) was demoted to the bullpen after his a poor start against Texas on June 26. He made four relief appearances for the Stros before making his 15th start of the season, in which he fanned six and walked three. Darren Oliver — who the Stros picked up from Florida on Friday — made his first appearance and struck out three in two scoreless innings of relief work. After Mike Gallo made things interesting by giving up a couple of yaks (the Brew Crew has 17 against the Stros this season) and 3 runs in 2/3rd’s of an inning in the eighth, Brad Lidge gutted up after throwing over 40 pitches in last night’s game and pitched a scoreless ninth to pick up the save.
Adam Everett and Jason Lane cranked yaks for the Stros, and Everett also had a double and Lane a sac fly to plate another run. The Stros continued their mild hitting surge, whacking 11 hits that generated 20 total bases.
Pete Munro pitches the rubber game for the Stros in Sunday’s matinee at the Juice Box, while Andy Pettitte gets the start on Monday in the first game of the next series with the DBacks.

That’s one wild vacation bible school

And it’s in The Woodlands, no less!

Kerry’s financial support

This Washington Post article does a good job of analyzing the financial support for John Kerry’s Presidential campaign. Mr. Kerry’s supporters are made up of several disparate group, which WaPo summarizes as follows:

? Lawyers, especially trial lawyers, are the engine of the Kerry fundraising operation. Lawyers and law firms have given more money to Kerry, $12 million, than any other sector. One out of four of Kerry’s big-dollar fundraisers is a lawyer, and one out of 10 is an attorney for plaintiffs in personal injury, medical malpractice or other lawsuits seeking damages.
? Much of the seed money for the Kerry presidential campaign was collected through donors to his Senate campaigns, including lobbyists with interests before two of the Senate committees on which Kerry serves: the Finance Committee and the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.
? Fueling Kerry’s money surge havebeen credit card collections on the Internet, a technique pioneered by his onetime rival Howard Dean in 2003 but used with even greater success this year by the presumptive Democratic nominee. Kerry has been raising more than $10 million a month on the Internet, for a total of more than $65 million, compared with $8.7 million for Bush in the past year, according to officials with both campaigns.
? Kerry appears to have succeeded in creating a new class of donors for the Democratic Party. Dozens of his fundraisers are relative neophytes in big-money politics and have not been active in making their own contributions. A review of federal campaign contributions of the big Kerry fundraisers shows that one-third of them have not made more than $20,000 in campaign contributions since 1990.
? Kerry’s donor base is overwhelmingly bicoastal. Almost half of the big-money fundraisers hail from either California or New York. Seventeen of the fundraisers are from Kerry’s home of Massachusetts. Kerry has substantially outraised Bush in California and New York, $39.7 million to $28.5 million; Bush has crushed the Democrat in Florida and Texas, $36 million to $8 million.

WaPo also compares the fundraising base of Mr. Kerry with that of President Bush’s:

Overall, Kerry’s fundraising base is much different from Bush’s. Kerry draws heavily on professionals with advanced degrees, academics, scientists and technology workers, in contrast to Bush’s strong base in the business community. Bush has close to 100 major fundraisers — Pioneers or Rangers, as the president’s campaign calls them — from the agribusiness, energy and power, construction, and transportation industries, compared with no more than half a dozen for Kerry.
According to PoliticalMoneyLine, five times as many corporate CEOs, presidents and chairmen gave to Bush as Kerry: 17,770 to 3,393. Conversely, the number of professors who gave to Kerry is 11 times the number of those who gave to Bush, 3,508 to 322. Actors split 212 for Kerry, 12 for Bush; authors, 110 to 3; librarians, 223 to 1; journalists, 93 to 1; and social workers, 415 to 32.

Tax simplification

James Edward Maule is a professor of tax law at Villonova University School of Law who authors a blog in which he frequently opines on various issues relating to tax policy. Today, the issue is income tax simplification and he is not optimistic about the prospects for reform:

The Democrats are trying to make tax simplification a highlight of their campaign promises. This is an amusing thought, but it?s also frightening because there are people who will believe it.
The Democrats, after all, were the pioneers in modern tax hypercomplexity. Beginning with Kennedy?s investment tax credit and magnified by a huge array of other credits, deductions, and exclusions, the tax law was made even more complicated through the enactment of phaseouts, scalebacks, and other hidden tax increases.
Not to be outdone, it didn?t take the Republicans long to get on the special interest complexity tax train. Absurd capital gain rate structures, a new cluster of credits, and all other sorts of finely tailored specially-directed provisions were crammed into an already bloated code. To use an analog from an astrophysics lecture I attended yesterday, the tax universe is expanding at a constant rate and is moving toward increasing disorder. Just like the cosmos.

Professor Maule then evaluates the Kerry Campaign’s proposals for tax simplification:

John Kerry?s tax proposals are inconsistent with the notion of tax simplification, so it will be interesting to see how the Democrats reconcile the party?s ?tax simplification? message and Kerry?s proposals. To be fair, Kerry cannot be blamed for all of the tax complexity in the Code or even all of the complexity bestowed on us by the Democrats in Congress. He isn?t even to blame for some of the stuff enacted while he was in the Congress.
Nonetheless, why is Kerry willing to make his proposals within the confines of a Republican tax design? The tax on dividends is a fine example. The Republicans create complexity by making most dividends (a selection process that is itself complex) subject to lower tax rates essentially the same as the bizarre rate structure applicable to capital gains. As readers of my blog and listserv posts know, this is an approach wholly inconsistent with fairness, implification, and common sense. Kerry proposes to eliminate this rate twist by restricting it to taxpayers with incomes under $200,000. This creates yet another layer of complexity onto the already complex dividend taxation structure.
I?d be far more impressed if Kerry took the following position: ?Look, folks, dividends are just one form of income. A person with a lot of income, no matter its source, ought to pay tax at a higher rate than someone with much less income. A person with interest income from certificates of deposit is no less entitled to a low rate than is a person with dividend income. In other words, the basic tax rate structures ought to reflect this principle, and favoritism of one sort of income over another is wrong, no matter the income level. To tax a retired person who has no pension and lives on social security and $30,000 of dividend income at a lower rate than her neighbor who has no pension income and lives on social security and $30,000 of interest income is flat out wrong and contrary to all principles of fairness.?

So, why doesn’t the Kerry Campaign from addressing this issue in such a common sense manner?:

What stops Kerry (or his advisors) from tackling this head on? Surely it has something to do with trying to make everyone think he or she is better off under Kerry?s proposals (which in fact is not the case). In an election campaign directed pretty much at the 10% of the voters who are ?swing votes? where?s the advantage in Kerry?s existing proposals? It doesn?t make much sense politically. So I?m wondering if in fact the Kerry tax advisors don?t quite know how to cut the Gordian knot of taxation.

Which leads Professor Maule back to where we always seem to be after each election campaign (with the notable exception of the Reagan Administration). Both political parties initially talk about tax simplification, but then promptly ignore the issue while dividing pork to special interests through tax “policy”:

So as far as I?m concerned, with the exception of a few individual members of Congress whose voices of common sense are drowned out in a sea of special interest tax pandering, both major parties and both major Presidential candidates don?t earn any points on the tax question.
So no matter who wins, the tax law will become even more disordered. Will it end as the astrophysicists predict the cosmos will ?end?? Will the system collapse of its own weight, becoming a black hole that swallows all? Does anyone other than a few ?tax mavens? even understand the seriousness of the problem?
Right now, I?m going to go back to looking in 360 degrees at two shades of blue. I?ll let my brain process tax stuff later.

As an independent voter, one of my greatest disappointments with the Bush Administration and the Republican-controlled Congress is their failure to address and propose enactment of meaningful tax simplification reform. As with reform of America’s broken health care finance system, the Republicans talk a good game, but then generally buckle to pressure from special interests that lobby to maintain the status quo. Professor Maule makes a good point that a Kerry Administration likely would not be any better in regard to tax simplification reform. Nevertheless, my sense is that the Republican Party badly underestimates the frustration of independent voters with their inaction on the issues of tax simplification and health care finance reform.
Given this Administration’s inaction on these issues, I think it is fair to ask the following question: Are we at a point where only a Democratic Administration initiative on these issues — modified through responsible Republican Congressional opposition — is the only (albeit messy) route to meaningful reform legislation?

The Blawg Channel – An intriguing new blawg

Six of the pioneers of legal blogs (i.e., “blawgs”) — Tom Migdell, Dennis Kennedy, Ernest Svenson, Marty Schwimmer, Denise Howell, and Rick Klau — are collaborating on a new blawg called The Blawg Channel. Ernie described the purpose of the new blawg in the following manner:

[to promote] some positive changes in the legal world, and, more particularly, in the newly-minted realm of lawyer blogs. Somehow the Internet seems to have injected steroids into the concept of self-publication, and we believe that we can use this blog in a way that is beneficial to lawyers (especially those that who aren’t themselves blogging but who, nevertheless, want to tap into blogs as a source of useful legal information). And, since I mentioned steroids, I should mention, for what it’s worth, that a couple of us are even willing to submit to drug tests.

Dennis kicked it off with a post “What five things can lawyers do to better serve entrepreneurs and their businesses?” Given the contributors’ knowledge and insight, this new blawg has great potential as a resource for lawyers. I recommend that you check it out regularly.

Enron Task Force PR staff fights back

The unusual nature of Ken Lay‘s somewhat desperate public relations campaign in connection with the criminal charges that are pending against him has been noted earlier here, here, and here.
Not to be outdone, the Enron Task Force pumped its PR machine into action by leaking to the Houston Chronicle this allegedly secret memo between former Enron CFO Andrew Fastow and former Enron chief accountant Richard Causey.
The gist of the Chronicle article is that, according to the Task Force, the memo proves that Fastow and Causey had secret side deals in which Enron guaranteed a great rate of return for the off-balance sheet partnerships that Fastow ran and in which Enron allegedly parked poorly-performing assets and hid enormous amounts of debt. The Task Force contends that the secret memo agreement between Fastow and Causey proves that the off-balance sheet partnerships were not entities at risk and, thus, should have been reported as a part of Enron’s consolidated financial statements. If that had been done, then Enron would have been revealed to the marketplace as a highly-leveraged company that would not have generated anything close to the investor interest that pushed the stock price to $80 a share in early 2001.
The Chronicle goes on to speculate that the revelation of the memo puts pressure on Mr. Causey to plea bargain with the Task Force:

A handwritten memo detailing secret side deals between ex-Enron Chief Accounting Officer Rick Causey and ex-Chief Financial Officer Andrew Fastow has defense lawyers predicting that Causey is under greater pressure to seek a deal with the government.
The document, which prosecutors have called the “global galactic” agreement, seemed a part of Enron folklore until it was cited as an actual written agreement in the indictment of ex-Chairman Ken Lay earlier this month.

Since Fastow has already pleaded guilty to two felony charges and is cooperating with the government, the written document can’t hurt him in the criminal arena. Most lawyers contacted this week suspect prosecutors received the written agreement from Fastow.
“It’s a very difficult document for team Causey. It’s as tough a document to refute as I’ve seen in the Enron case,” said a lawyer for one of the Enron criminal defendants who asked that his name not be used.
He and other defense lawyers in Enron cases, who spoke off the record, said there is growing expectation, largely because of this document, that Causey could be pressured to cooperate with the government.

As if facing what amounts to be a life sentence if convicted of the criminal charges against him is not enough incentive for Mr. Causey to entertain a plea bargain.
Despite the representations in the Chronicle article, most attorneys close to the Enron case have known for some time about the Fastow-Causey memo. And, although not a good piece of evidence for Mr. Causey, it is a decidedly double-edged sword for the Task Force in regard to the other Enron-related defendants. Unless the Task Force can prove that other Enron defendants such as Mr. Lay or former CEO Jeffrey Skilling knew of the Fastow-Causey memo, then the memo may be used as exculpatory evidence for other Enron defendants who could reasonably claim that the Fastow-Causey agreement was secret, that they would have never approved of it, and that the memo proves that Mr. Fastow truly was the loose cannon who manipulated Enron’s finances for personal gain to the extent that he ultimately triggered its collapse.