Roger Clemens won his fourth straight National League game as the Stros beat the Colorado Rockies on Saturday for the second straight day, 8-5. The Astros are now 7-1 on the road in the young season, and they go for the series sweep behind Wade Miller on Sunday afternoon.
The ‘Stros beat the Rockies 13-7 in a typical Coors Field game on Friday night or, as Astros’ color man Jim DeShaies put it, “the Astros went on a 10 to 2 run to take control of the game.”
Games at Coors Field are often quite strange. Yesterday, the grounds crew worked all day to remove four inches of snow from the field that had fallen on Thursday night. Because of the high altitude, the baseball flies further when hit. Pitchers are well aware of this, so they tend to pitch more defensively, which usually makes matters worse for them. Sometimes, a pitcher will look like he is dominating a hitter for several pitches and then suddenly, the hitter will whack the next pitch into the adjoining county. So, when watching games at Coors, you just have to get used to that type of thing.
Mike Lamb had a career game for the ‘Stros with four hits and six RBIs, and Brandon Duckworth gave up five hits and four runs in five innings (that’s like giving up three hits and a run in seven innings anywhere else) to pick up the win. Denver native Brad Lidge struck out the last four Rockies batters of the game, which is tantamount to striking out the entire lineup anywhere else.
The Rocket goes for his fourth win today in his second career start at Coors.
The Cardinals completed the sweep of the Astros on Thursday night by squeezing in a run in the 12th to take a 2-1 victory. Roy O and Jason Marquis were locked in a pitching dual for most of the game, and you had a sense that it was not the Astros’ night when the team’s fastest player, Adam Everett, was thrown out at third base in the 7th on a nice throw from Jim Edmunds (close play, though). Of course, Biggio followed with an RBI single, which would have plated two and won the game if Everett had not been nailed.
The series revealed the Astros’ weakness that I noted earlier here on Opening Day — that is, this team will struggle to score runs during stretches of the season. They scored only 10 in three games against the Cards, and six of those were in the blowout loss in the second game of the series. The ‘Stros now move on to Denver for a three game set with the Rockies this weekend (Brandon Duckworth starts the opener in place of the rehabbing Andy Pettitte), then move on to Pittsburgh for three before returning to the Juice Box next Friday for a four game series with the Reds.
By the way, one of the highlights of the game last night was a real free-for-all between two fans in the stands during the bottom of the 11th. One of the two fellows involved in the fight quickly got the upper hand and was really hammering the other guy when the police finally broke it up. The police escorted one of the two guys from the stadium, but I couldn’t tell whether it was the fellow who got creamed or the winner by TKO who got removed.
Tim Redding‘s start this season went from mediocre to disastrous this evening as the Redbirds lit him up for 8 runs in three and two thirds innings on their way to routing the ‘Stros, 12-6. Just for good measure, Jim Edmunds cranked a grand salami off of Ricky Stone in the fifth to make sure that the ‘Stros didn’t have any illusions about making a game of it.
Redding now attempts to avoid Manager Jimy Williams for the next several days as the skipper contemplates calling up either Jared Fernandez (54 ERA, but 8 scoreless innings since going down to AAA New Orleans) or rehabbing Carlos Hernandez (0.84 ERA in 10 innings at New Orleans) to replace the listing Redding in the starting rotation.
Roy O will take the hill as the ‘Stros try to salvage one game of the three game set with the Cards tomorrow night. After that game, the Astros go to Denver and Pittsburgh before returning home for a series next weekend against the Reds.
The Cards beat the Astros 5-3 on Tuesday evening. Reggie Sanders and Albert Pujols homered for the Cards, and Sanders made a nifty catch in right field that robbed Bags of a homer. Wade Miller pitched O.K. for the ‘Stros, giving up five runs on five hits (one walk) in six innings, but his relief help let in two of those runs the inning that he came out. Tim Redding faces Cards’ ace Matt Morris in game two of the series on Wednesday night at 6:05 p.m. at Minute Maid Park.
The Rocket picked up his third win of the young season as the ‘Stros cruised by the Milwaukee Brewers for the third straight day, 6-1. Clemens spaced four hits over seven innings, walked one, struck out seven, and even knocked in his second RBI of the season. With the win, the ‘Stros are now 9-4 and in first place in the NL Central. The Stros are off on Monday and then begin a three game series with the St. Louis Cardinals at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday.
The following is the first in a series of “down on the farm” reports that I will post periodically throughout the season to provide information on the Astros’ primary MLB prospects playing in the club’s minor league system. The development of minor league prospects is the lifeblood of most Major League Baseball teams, and the Astros are no exception to that rule. Indeed, the Astros’ consistent success over the past decade (four division titles and five second place finishes) is attributable to the club’s development of such players as Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo, Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, and Billy Wagner.
Although most experts considered the Astros’ minor league system as one of the best in Major League Baseball over the past decade, that is no longer the case. For the first time in recent memory, the Astros have no grade A prospects in the minors, which led Baseball America to rank the Astros’ minor league system 29th out of the 30 MLB teams at the beginning of this season. There are a number of reasons for this decline, but the most troubling one is that the Astros’ delayed until last season to include a “high-A” team in its minor league system. Accordingly, in prior seasons, the lack of a high-A team in the ‘Stros’ system forced the organization to promote players from its mid-A team in Lexington to AA Round Rock, which often caused players to be overmatched. For example, shortstop prospect Tommy Whiteman and catcher prospect John Buck are examples of good prospects who struggled at AA Round Rock after being promoted from mid-A ball. The Astros corrected this deficiency in their system by fielding a high-A team in Salem, Virginia during the 2003 season.
The first prospects to be evaluated in this series are those on the Astros’ AAA team, the New Orleans Zephyrs. Unfortunately, there is not much to report from New Orleans, which is the weakest of the Astros’ minor league teams. New Orleans is currently 4-7, in last place, and not hitting. The best news is that the pitching staff is reasonably strong, and that Carlos Hernandez has pitched well in his first two starts as he continues his comeback from shoulder surgery.
In the 2001 season, Hernandez was considered at least as good a pitching prospect as Roy Oswalt and pitched very well during the Astros’ pennant drive that season. However, Hernandez partially tore his labrum in his pitching shoulder in a baserunning mishap that season, and he opted to rehab the injury without surgery. Hernandez started off O.K. in the 2002 season, but after 117 decreasingly effective innings, the ‘Stros’ elected to put him on the disabled list and he had the surgery to repair the labrum that he probably should have had after the 2001 season.
Hernandez rehabbed the shoulder and did not pitch during the 2003 season, and then started his comeback in winter league baseball after last season. He progressed well during spring training, but his endurance and fastball speed have not returned to what they were during 2001 season. The ‘Stros are taking a prudently cautious approach with Hernandez, allowing him to pitch only five innings in each of his first two starts this season. Nevertheless, he has given up only one earned run to date, and appears to be making steady progress. If that progress continues, then he should be ready to contribute to the Astros’ staff by midseason.
The other top pitching prospect on the New Orleans staff is Taylor Buchholz, a 22 year old righthander who was one of the two young pitchers that the Astros received from Philly in the Billy Wagner deal. Buchholz looked decent in the spring, but he has been hammered in his first two outings at AAA. Look for him to spend the entire season at New Orleans and, if he develops steadily, to compete for a rotation spot next spring.
The other two pitchers who could help the Astros this season are Jared Fernandez (he of the 54 ERA, just recently sent down) and Chad Qualls, a 25 year old righthander who has pitched reasonably well while gobbling up a large number of innings the past two seasons at AA Round Rock. Although Fernandez started off horribly this season, he pitched well for the ‘Stros for most of last season, and it is not unusual for knuckleballers to turn it around at any time (in fact, he pitched six scoreless innings for New Orleans today).
Other news from New Orleans is not promising. John Buck, who as recently as a year ago was considered to be Astros fans’ solution to the Brad Ausmus problem. However, after being jumped from mid-A ball to AA Round Rock in 2002, Buck fell apart, losing the plate discipline and power that he had displayed in low-A ball. The ‘Stros then promoted him to AAA New Orleans in 2003, where Buck’s performance became even worse (although he was injured for a couple of months last season). Buck’s stunted development was one of the reasons that the Astros’ overpaid Ausmus (yet again) in another contract extension, and Buck’s early performance at New Orleans reflects that he may be the poster child for premature advancement in a minor league system — six hits (one double, the rest singles) in 31 plate appearances, two walks, and seven strikeouts. Buck is not yet 24, so he is still young enough to turn it around. But as the scouts say in the bush leagues, the numbers don’t lie.
Similarly, none of the other everyday players at AAA are performing very well. Second baseman Chris Burke, a top choice from the 2001 draft out of the University of Tennessee, may become a decent utility infielder, but he has exhibited neither the on base average nor the slugging percentage that would make him a front line MLB second baseman. In fact, the only New Orleans player hitting decently is 27 year old outfielder Mike Hill, who has the look of a career minor leaguer and is probably not more than a fifth outfielder prospect for a MLB club.
Consequently, the time is now for the Astros. Other than Hernandez and maybe Buchholz, Fernandez, and Qualls, there is not any help at the AAA level. My next “down on the farm” report will be on the prospects at AA Round Rock, which are more promising.
The Astros beat the Milwaukee Brewers 14-5 on Saturday night for their second win in the third of their current four game series. Bidg and Mike Lamb each had three run jacks, and Hidalgo continued his torrid early season hitting with two doubles and four RBI’s.
The ‘Stros used six pitchers (why, Jimy, why?) in the rout, including newly-acquired Chad Harville, who pitched a scoreless inning. Roger Clemens takes the hill on Sunday afternoon seeking his third win of the season as the Astros close out the series with the Brew Crew. On Tuesday, the ‘Stros open a three game series with the St. Louis Cardinals at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros swapped young righthanded pitchers with the Oakland A’s Friday, trading Kirk Saarloos (who had been pitching at AAA New Orleans) for Chad Harville. Here is the Astros’ press release on the deal, which the Chronicle dutifully fails to supplement with better analysis of the deal.
My sense is that the A’s got the better of this deal because they got a promising young pitcher in Saarloos when they would have lost Harville had htey not made the deal (Harville was out of options and had demanded that the A’s give him his outright release rather than return to the minors).
Saarloos was a third round draft choice of the Stros in the 2001 draft, and he shot up the organization when he dominated the AA Texas League in the first half of the 2002 season. The Stros called him up in both the 2002 and 2003 seasons, but that is where Saarloos ran straight into Jimy Williams’ impatience with developing young ballplayers and Williams’ disdain for Saarloos’ less than blazing fastball (Saarloos patterns his pitching style after Greg Maddux).
In my view, Williams never really gave Saarloos a fair shot in the Astros’ less than stellar starting rotations of the 2001-2002 seasons, and so Saarloos was stuck in the Astros’ revolving door bullpen of the last two seasons, which is not his strong suit. This season, Saarloos did not pitch well early in the spring, but then recovered nicely, only to be told that there was no way he was going to make the Opening Day roster and that the ‘Stros were trying to peddle him. He promptly went to AAA New Orleans and was bombed in his first two starts there. However, Saarloos is only 25, and his minor league numbers indicate strongly that he will eventually be an effective 200 inning per season major league control artist with low walk and home run rates. Consequently, the Astros have really given up a talent in this deal.
And Harville? Well, he is a 27 year old fireballer who was a relief pitcher for the A’s last season. Here’s how Baseball Prospectus 2004 analyzes him:
The whole right-handed Billy Wagner thing just hasn’t worked out. Harville, once renowned for his small stature and tremendous fastball, pitched well for the [AAA Sacramento] RiverCats, but once again didn’t look particularly great in Oakland. He still throws very hard, but didn’t look completely comfortable with his improving curveball, and occasionally couldn’t find the strike zone with a sherpa and a GPS unit. He’s out of options, so he has to make the club out of spring training if the A’s want to keep him, and he’s still a reasonable bet to be a good pitcher in some role. If and when that actually happens is a matter of speculation.
So, in sum, a deal involving two pitchers of differing styles, both of whom have decent potential. I would have stuck with Saarloos, but perhaps this is one of those deals where both pitchers will thrive in new surroundings. With the Astros’ pitching staff of flame-throwers, Harville will certainly have a lot of company in that department.
I cruised down to Minute Maid for the ‘Stros Friday night game against the Brewers, and I was treated to a masterful performance by Astros ace Roy Oswalt. Roy O shut out the Brew Crew on 3 singles, no walks, and 10 strikeouts as the ‘Stros rolled, 2-0. The ‘Stros didn’t hit much either and Roy O is a notoriously fast worker on the mound, so the game took only an hour and 58 minutes.
Brandon Duckworth gets his first start as an Astro in Saturday’s game as Andy Pettitte‘s replacement in the ‘Stros’ rotation. Note that most Saturday games this season will begin at 6:05 p.m., an hour earlier than other ‘Stros’ night games.
The following is from Dayn Perry over at Baseball Prospectus about the rather odd moves of Astros’ manager Jimy Williams:
Jimy Fun
I got a little excited when I read a headline hinting that Astros manager Jimy Williams might use closer Octavio Dotel in non-save situations. . . . Then I read the article under the headline. It turns out Williams indeed plans on using Dotel in non-save situations, but those situations won’t be high-leverage spots in the middle innings; rather, it’ll be when the ?Stros have a four-run lead in the ninth. Yeah, a four-run lead. The war to maximize bullpen efficiency just endured its Tet Offensive.
According to . . . Keith Woolner, from 1980-1998, there was a 2.3 percent chance of a team surrendering four or more runs in any given inning. In other words, Williams is burning his best reliever–one of the game’s best relievers, in fact–in a situation where he has, on average, a 97.7 percent chance of success. At this juncture, Williams doesn’t have much confidence in his corps of supporting relievers, but this is precisely what he shouldn’t be doing. Let Dotel work some of the critical-mass innings that would otherwise be going to people like Ricky Stone; don’t exhaust him in gimme frames like the ninth inning of a four-run game.
Need more reasons to fear for Houston’s chances with Jimy at the switch? Well, Morgan Ensberg, who in a just meritocracy would be the Astros’ starting third baseman every day, was on the bench Tuesday night for the third time in eight games. This time, Jimy ramped up his Sacco-and-Vanzetti treatment by benching Ensberg in favor of Jose Vizcaino. Why? Yeah, I’m aware that Vizcaino was 9-for-10 in his career against Cards starter Jeff Suppan, but if Ensberg’s manager can find justification to bench him based on a 10-AB sample, then the bar for handy rationalization isn’t set too high. Ensberg deserves better.
As noted here earlier, Williams’ questionable handling of Ensberg last season may have cost the ‘Stros a Central Division pennant in the close race against the Cubs. I do not see the race being any easier this season, so here’s hoping that Williams does not let his stubborn adherence to baseball myths undermine his team’s chances for success.