The Rocket picked up his third win of the young season as the ‘Stros cruised by the Milwaukee Brewers for the third straight day, 6-1. Clemens spaced four hits over seven innings, walked one, struck out seven, and even knocked in his second RBI of the season. With the win, the ‘Stros are now 9-4 and in first place in the NL Central. The Stros are off on Monday and then begin a three game series with the St. Louis Cardinals at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday.
The following is the first in a series of “down on the farm” reports that I will post periodically throughout the season to provide information on the Astros’ primary MLB prospects playing in the club’s minor league system. The development of minor league prospects is the lifeblood of most Major League Baseball teams, and the Astros are no exception to that rule. Indeed, the Astros’ consistent success over the past decade (four division titles and five second place finishes) is attributable to the club’s development of such players as Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman, Richard Hidalgo, Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, and Billy Wagner.
Although most experts considered the Astros’ minor league system as one of the best in Major League Baseball over the past decade, that is no longer the case. For the first time in recent memory, the Astros have no grade A prospects in the minors, which led Baseball America to rank the Astros’ minor league system 29th out of the 30 MLB teams at the beginning of this season. There are a number of reasons for this decline, but the most troubling one is that the Astros’ delayed until last season to include a “high-A” team in its minor league system. Accordingly, in prior seasons, the lack of a high-A team in the ‘Stros’ system forced the organization to promote players from its mid-A team in Lexington to AA Round Rock, which often caused players to be overmatched. For example, shortstop prospect Tommy Whiteman and catcher prospect John Buck are examples of good prospects who struggled at AA Round Rock after being promoted from mid-A ball. The Astros corrected this deficiency in their system by fielding a high-A team in Salem, Virginia during the 2003 season.
The first prospects to be evaluated in this series are those on the Astros’ AAA team, the New Orleans Zephyrs. Unfortunately, there is not much to report from New Orleans, which is the weakest of the Astros’ minor league teams. New Orleans is currently 4-7, in last place, and not hitting. The best news is that the pitching staff is reasonably strong, and that Carlos Hernandez has pitched well in his first two starts as he continues his comeback from shoulder surgery.
In the 2001 season, Hernandez was considered at least as good a pitching prospect as Roy Oswalt and pitched very well during the Astros’ pennant drive that season. However, Hernandez partially tore his labrum in his pitching shoulder in a baserunning mishap that season, and he opted to rehab the injury without surgery. Hernandez started off O.K. in the 2002 season, but after 117 decreasingly effective innings, the ‘Stros’ elected to put him on the disabled list and he had the surgery to repair the labrum that he probably should have had after the 2001 season.
Hernandez rehabbed the shoulder and did not pitch during the 2003 season, and then started his comeback in winter league baseball after last season. He progressed well during spring training, but his endurance and fastball speed have not returned to what they were during 2001 season. The ‘Stros are taking a prudently cautious approach with Hernandez, allowing him to pitch only five innings in each of his first two starts this season. Nevertheless, he has given up only one earned run to date, and appears to be making steady progress. If that progress continues, then he should be ready to contribute to the Astros’ staff by midseason.
The other top pitching prospect on the New Orleans staff is Taylor Buchholz, a 22 year old righthander who was one of the two young pitchers that the Astros received from Philly in the Billy Wagner deal. Buchholz looked decent in the spring, but he has been hammered in his first two outings at AAA. Look for him to spend the entire season at New Orleans and, if he develops steadily, to compete for a rotation spot next spring.
The other two pitchers who could help the Astros this season are Jared Fernandez (he of the 54 ERA, just recently sent down) and Chad Qualls, a 25 year old righthander who has pitched reasonably well while gobbling up a large number of innings the past two seasons at AA Round Rock. Although Fernandez started off horribly this season, he pitched well for the ‘Stros for most of last season, and it is not unusual for knuckleballers to turn it around at any time (in fact, he pitched six scoreless innings for New Orleans today).
Other news from New Orleans is not promising. John Buck, who as recently as a year ago was considered to be Astros fans’ solution to the Brad Ausmus problem. However, after being jumped from mid-A ball to AA Round Rock in 2002, Buck fell apart, losing the plate discipline and power that he had displayed in low-A ball. The ‘Stros then promoted him to AAA New Orleans in 2003, where Buck’s performance became even worse (although he was injured for a couple of months last season). Buck’s stunted development was one of the reasons that the Astros’ overpaid Ausmus (yet again) in another contract extension, and Buck’s early performance at New Orleans reflects that he may be the poster child for premature advancement in a minor league system — six hits (one double, the rest singles) in 31 plate appearances, two walks, and seven strikeouts. Buck is not yet 24, so he is still young enough to turn it around. But as the scouts say in the bush leagues, the numbers don’t lie.
Similarly, none of the other everyday players at AAA are performing very well. Second baseman Chris Burke, a top choice from the 2001 draft out of the University of Tennessee, may become a decent utility infielder, but he has exhibited neither the on base average nor the slugging percentage that would make him a front line MLB second baseman. In fact, the only New Orleans player hitting decently is 27 year old outfielder Mike Hill, who has the look of a career minor leaguer and is probably not more than a fifth outfielder prospect for a MLB club.
Consequently, the time is now for the Astros. Other than Hernandez and maybe Buchholz, Fernandez, and Qualls, there is not any help at the AAA level. My next “down on the farm” report will be on the prospects at AA Round Rock, which are more promising.