Well, the Stros (39-42) are halfway through their 2006 season and the first half of the season reminds us again of just how much expectations shape our perception of how likely it is for the club to contend for another playoff run.
Remember this same time in 2004? Pessimism surrounded the club. The hitting was lousy and the pitching staff was reeling from the loss of Wade Miller and the sore elbow of Andy Pettitte. However, after reaching a season-worst 56-60 on Aug. 14, the 2004 Stros won an incredible 36 out of their next 46 games (including a 12 game winning streak and nine out of their last 10 to close out the regular season) to take the National League wildcard playoff spot and come within a game of the 2004 World Series.
And remember this time last season? After starting the 2005 season with an atrocious 15-30 record amidst the worst hitting in the club’s history, that Stros club came to the halfway point of the season on a totally unexpected 29-13 run that had everyone brimming with cautious optimism. Of course, that club went on to post a 45-30 record for the remainder of the season to make the playoffs, won the National League Championship Series over the Cardinals and made it to the club’s first World Series.
What about this year? Well, after getting hopes up by blowing out of the gate with a 19-9 record, the 2006 Stros have gone into a 20-33 tailspin that has exhibited not only chronic inconsistent hitting, but also pitching that has been far below the levels of the 2004 and 2005 Stros. As a result, no one seems to be particularly sanguine at this time about the prospects for the Stros making a third straight playoff run.
But you know what’s interesting? The Stros 39-42 record to date this season is not materially different from the 44-43 record at the All-Star break for the 2004 Stros or the 44-44 All-Star break record of the 2005 club. And just like the Stros clubs of the past two seasons, the 2006 Stros have the ingredients to contend for a playoff spot in the second half of the season if certain players elevate their performance to past levels. See what I mean about expectations?

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Roger Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers in Major League Baseball history, so he rightly gets most of the publicity among Stros pitchers. However, Roy Oswalt is currently the best pitcher on the Stros’ staff, one of the best pitchers in the National League and is well on his way to becoming the best Stros pitcher ever.
As noted in this recent post on Clemens, the statistic “runs saved against average” (“RSAA) is one of the best measures for evaluating a pitcher’s true effectiveness because it is based on the two most important things for a pitcher in winning baseball games — that is, not giving up runs and getting hitters out. RSAA measures the number of runs that a pitcher saves for his team relative to the number of runs that an average pitcher in the league would give up while obtaining an equivalent number of outs for his team. Inasmuch as the hypothetical average pitcher’s RSAA is always zero, a player can have an RSAA that is either a positive number — which indicates he is an above average pitcher (i.e., Clemens and Oswalt) — or an RSAA that is a negative number, which means he is performing below average (i.e., remember Brandon Duckworth and Tim Redding?).
Moreover, RSAA is a the best measure for comparing pitchers who played during different eras. Inasmuch as RSAA measures a pitcher’s ability against that of an average pitcher in the pitcher’s league for each particular season, a pitcher’s lifetime RSAA measures how that pitcher performed against the average pitcher of his era. That’s really the best way to compare pitchers from different eras because comparing other pitching statistics — such as earned run average, wins and hitting statistics against — is often skewed between pitchers of hitter-friendly eras (i.e., the era in which Clemens and Oswalt have pitched) versus pitchers of pitcher-friendly eras (i.e., such as the late 1960’s and early 70’s).
In pitching a complete game the other day against the Tigers, Oswalt attained another milestone by reaching 150 RSAA for his career. Roy O is easily the Stros career leader in RSAA:

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Although the 2006 Stros are quickly sliding into oblivion (I will post my next periodic analysis of the club’s 2006 season this weekend after the Stros reach the halfway point in the season on Saturday), Roger Clemens is still likely to make baseball interesting in Houston for the remainder of the season.
Earlier this week, Clemens pitched well (6 1/3 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO) in his second game of the season and, in so doing, became the first pitcher in Major League Baseball who has pitched after 1900 to reach 700 runs saved against average (“RSAA”) in his career. The following is the top ten pitchers in career RSAA who pitched after 1900, courtesy of Lee Sinins:

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My sense is that Asheville Tourists manager Joe Mikulik suspects that Stros farmhand Koby Clemens is getting some favorable treatment from the umps that is normally reserved for his father:

Lexington’s Koby Clemens — whose famous father Roger made a tuneup start for the Legends this month after re-signing with the Houston Astros — was leading off second base after hitting an RBI double when Asheville pitcher Brandon Durden tried to pick him off.
Umpire Andy Russell called Clemens safe, sending Mikulik roaring out of the dugout and setting off a prolonged tirade that he carried all over the infield and into the dugout.

That led to this:

The Rice Owls quest for a second NCAA baseball championship took a detour Wednesday night as the Oregon State Beavers used a career-performance from young starter Daniel Turpen — who had only started one prior game all season — to defeat the Owls 5-0 and set up another game with the Owls this evening to determine which team will face North Carolina in the best-of-three championship series that begins on Saturday night in Omaha.
As noted earlier here, winning the College World Series is usually all about pitching depth, and so Wednesday’s loss provides a clear advantage to North Carolina in the championship series. Regardless of whether Carolina faces Rice or Oregon State, the Tarheels will have the better-rested pitching staff for the championship series. On the other hand, both Rice and Oregon State will use their aces in tonight’s elimination game (television by ESPN2) — Rice’s Eddie Degerman and Oregon State’s Dallas Buck — which will effectively limit their availability in the championship series.
One concern for Rice coach Wayne Graham is that the Owls’ bats have suddenly gone quiet in Omaha. One of the best hitting teams in college baseball, the Owls have now gone 14 straight innings without a run. If that trend doesn’t change, the Owls will likely submit to the old baseball adage “when you don’t hit, you sit.”
Update: Baseball can be such a cruel game. After mashing the ball for virtually the entire season, the Owls’ bats remain asleep as they lose the elimination game to OSU, 2-0.

The Rice Owls are off to a good start in the 2006 College World Series, winning their first two games over Georgia (6-4) and yesterday over Miami (3-2). In so doing, the Owls avoided the dreaded loser bracket task of having to win three games in three straight days just to have the opportunity to play in the best-of-three championship series that begins on Saturday evening. North Carolina is the only other team in the CWS with two wins and no losses, so the Owls and Carolina are currently the favorites to proceed to the championship series.
The Owls’ next game is on Wednesday at 7 p.m. (television by ESPN2) against the winner of today’s Miami-Oregon State game and, if the Owls win that one, then they proceed to the first game of the championship series on Saturday evening. If the Owls lose tomorrow’s game, then they play the winner of that game again on Thursday night at 7 p.m. for the right to play in the championship series. Consequently, a win in tomorrow’s game would be huge for the Owls, who would then be able to preserve key pitching depth for the championship series while avoiding another pre-championship series game on Thursday. Baseball America’s continually updated bracket is here and Baseball America’s excellent CWS page is here, along with Aaron Fitt and Will Kimmey’s blog on the CWS.
By the way, this NY Times article from over the weekend will be of interest to those who follow the Rice baseball program. The article chronicles the surgeries that each of the three top pitchers from Rice’s 2003 NCAA Championship Baseball team have undergone during the initial stages of their professional careers.

As noted earlier here, Houston has become the amateur baseball hotbed of America over the past decade, and no person is more responsible for that development than the coach of Rice University’s fine baseball program, the remarkable Wayne Graham.
Coach Graham was already a local coaching legend in local circles when he took over the Rice program 15 years ago. Already an accomplished high school and junior college baseball coach (he developed such players as Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte at San Jacinto Junior College amidst the petrochemical plants on Houston’s southeast side), Coach Graham was 55 when he took the Rice coaching position, which was his dream job. Under Graham, Rice has won 11 conference championships in a row, gone to 12 NCAA regional tournaments and six Super Regional tournaments, and — with this year’s team — have five appearances in the College World Series. Rice’s 2003 NCAA National Championship in baseball was the school’s first team national championship in any sport, an achievement made all the more incredible given Rice’s high academic requirements and relatively small enrollment (less than 3,000 undergraduates).
Graham is now 70, but his real age is closer to 50 because of a rigorous workout regimen and a healthy diet. Thus, he has no intention of slowing down and, as this excellent David Barron/Houston Chronicle profile reports, don’t be surprised if Graham is still coaching the Owls at the age of 80. Although Barron’s profile captures the special nature of Graham well, this related Barron article passes along my favorite anecdote about Graham, which involves happy-go-lucky Stros star, Lance Berkman, who played for the notoriously no-nonsense Graham at Rice during the mid-1990’s:

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For the fifth time in the past decade, the Rice Owls baseball team will play in the College World Series in Omaha, which begins this weekend. The Owls qualified for this year’s CWS with a heart-thumping 9-5 victory over the Oklahoma Sooners in the rubber game of their three-game Super Regional series on Monday afternoon at Rice’s Reckling Park. The Owls return to the CWS tournament in Omaha for the first time since 2003, when Rice won the tournament and was crowned national champion. The Owls first game in the CWS tournament this year is against Georgia on Saturday.
This year’s trip to the CWS for the Owls is of particular interest to me because, several years ago while coaching youth baseball here in The Woodlands, I had the privilege of coaching Owls OF Jordan Dodson and Owls catcher Danny Lehmann, both of whom went on to become star players in the excellent high school baseball program at The Woodlands High School before enrolling at Rice. Somehow, these two fine young men were able to overcome my coaching to develop into excellent ballplayers. I’m thrilled for them and the entire Rice squad. Go Owls!

Although the fourth of the Stros’ ten segments of the 2006 season (prior 1/10th of a season posts are here) was not the most successful — the Stros had to win five of their last six to finish 7-9 for the 16-game segment and 32-32 on the season to date — it was certainly lively in other areas:

The Rocket returned to the club and even acquired a new nickname;
The Stros’ best pitcher — Roy O — went on the 15-day disabled list after aggravating his back by attempting to pitch through a hamstring injury;
Stros manager Phil Garner looked as if he was gripping midway through the fourth segment of the season, but seemed to rebound in his decision-making recently; and
The Jason Grimsley Affair threatened to blow the lid off of Major League Baseball’s performance-enhancing drug scandal.

Whew! Meanwhile, the 2006 edition of the Stros continued to exhibit traits of a .500 club after 40% of the season, but — as with last season’s club at this point in the season — the Stros are showing signs that they could still make a playoff run.

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Get used to it because the ripples from the Jason Grimsley Affair are already starting and may turn into pretty tasty waves soon.
It looks as if Grimsely has fingered Chris Mihlfeld, a Kansas City-based ìstrength and conditioning guruî (and the former Strength And Conditioning Coordinator for the Kansas City Royals baseball club) as referring Grimsley to a source from whom Grimsley obtained “amphetamines, anabolic steroids and human growth hormone.” Mihlfeld has been Cardinals star Albert Pujolsí personal trainer since before Pujols was drafted by the Cardinals in the 13th round of the 1999 draft.
Meanwhile, as speculated in this previous post from over a year ago, this NY Times article reports that the perjury investigation into Barry Bonds is continuing to fester.
This is going to get very ugly. Quickly.
Update: Mihlfeld is denying that his name is connected to the drug probe that has ensnared Grimsley or that Pujols was involved in taking performance-enhancing drugs.