Although the fourth of the Stros’ ten segments of the 2006 season (prior 1/10th of a season posts are here) was not the most successful — the Stros had to win five of their last six to finish 7-9 for the 16-game segment and 32-32 on the season to date — it was certainly lively in other areas:
The Rocket returned to the club and even acquired a new nickname;
The Stros’ best pitcher — Roy O — went on the 15-day disabled list after aggravating his back by attempting to pitch through a hamstring injury;
Stros manager Phil Garner looked as if he was gripping midway through the fourth segment of the season, but seemed to rebound in his decision-making recently; and
The Jason Grimsley Affair threatened to blow the lid off of Major League Baseball’s performance-enhancing drug scandal.
Whew! Meanwhile, the 2006 edition of the Stros continued to exhibit traits of a .500 club after 40% of the season, but — as with last season’s club at this point in the season — the Stros are showing signs that they could still make a playoff run.
It’s interesting to compare last season’s club at the same stage of the season with this one. At this point in the 2005 season, the Stros were nine games under .500 at 25-36 and had the worst hitting team in Major League Baseball by far. However, the club was beginning to win consistently despite the horrendous hitting behind a pitching staff that was well on its way to having the best performances by three starting pitchers on one team (Clemens, Pettitte and Oswalt) in the past 50 years of Major League Baseball. Over the balance of the season, the hitting improved enough (primarily due to Berkman returning from injury and Lane having a solid second half of the season) so that the outstanding pitching staff carried the club into the post-season and ultimately the World Series.
This season, despite their chronic hitting woes, the Stros are actually hitting much better than last season’s club. The Stros have generated only six fewer runs to this point in season than an average National League club would have produced using the same number of outs (in other words, a -2 RCAA, explained here) compared to a -73 RCAA for last season’s Stros at the same point in their season. Thus, while the 2005 club was the worst hitting team in the National League on this date last year, this season’s club is smack dab in the middle of the 16 National League clubs.
On the other hand, this season’s pitching staff as a group has not performed nearly as well to date as last season’s staff — the Stros’ pitching staff currently ranks 14th in the National League in runs saved against average (RSAA, explained here). Consequently, the 2006 club’s better hitting has allowed the team to post a much better record at this point in the season than last season’s club, but the club’s hitting is still not good enough to overcome the club’s relatively mediocre pitching to generate the type of finishing kick that the 2005 club’s pitching allowed that club to enjoy. Thus, as noted earlier here, the return of Clemens is likely to help, but the Rocket alone will not be enough for this club to turn it around and become a bonafide playoff contender. Some other things need to occur for that happen.
The club’s hitting and pitching statistics to date are set forth below, and pdf’s of the current hitting stats are here and the current pitching stats are here, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia:
The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same is done for the pitching stats here.
The club’s hitting remains slightly below-National League average overall. 1B Berkman (19 RCAA/.388 OBA/.615 SLG/.1.003 OPS) and 3B Ensberg (16/.380/.562/.941) remain in the top dozen hitters in the National League this season and, absent injury, are on their way to All-Star seasons. 2B Bidg (1/354/.467/.821) continues to click along productively, while Mike Lamb (8/.402/.545/.947) and Chris Burke (2/.343/.424/.767) have made consistent contributions whenever they have played regularly.
The main problem for the Stros hitting-wise has been in the outfield, where only RF Lane (-3/.341/.403/.745) has come close to being even a National League-average hitter, while CF Taveras (-13/.320/.313/.633) and unintended LF singles-hitter Preston Wilson (-8/.310/.397/.707) are big drags on the lineup. Inasmuch as light-hitting SS Everett (-14/.272/.298/.570) is considered the best defensive player on the club, and over-performing but traditionally weak-hitting C Ausmus (-3/.369/.371/.741) is also considered by the Stros brass as a key defensive player, the Stros should limit Taveras and Wilson’s play in favor of the more-productive Lamb, Burke and Bruntlett (0/.392/.388/.780) over the balance of the season. Everett and Taveras — who are among the ten worst-hitting regular players in the National League — should, absent injury to more productive players, never be in the starting lineup together.
Meanwhile, even though the pitching staff’s overall performance to date has been lackluster, there are signs of hope. Despite his recent stint on the disabled list, Roy O (3.11 ERA/12 RSAA) remains one of the best starters in the National League and rookie Nieve (4.85 ERA/-3 RSAA) is beginning to show signs of becoming a reasonably consistent starter. Rodriguez (4.48 ERA/-1 RSAA) somehow continues to muddle along reasonably well despite an atrocious walk rate, and star relievers Lidge (4.85 ERA/-1 RSAA), Wheeler (4.73 ERA/-1 RSAA) and Qualls (3.79 ERS/2 RSAA) recently appear to be finding their rhythm after a spotty first third of the season.
However, problems still exist as veteran starter Pettitte (5.81 ERA/-13 RSAA) and rookie starter Buchholz (6.06 ERA/ -13 RSAA) are two of the worst ten pitchers in the National League this season in terms of RSAA (both have given up a horrendous 14 yaks to date), and it’s never a comforting feeling when your only lefty out of the bullpen is Trevor Miller (4.86 ERA/-1 RSAA).
So, what’s the most likely prescription for the Stros to end up in the playoff hunt this season? It’s probably unrealistic to expect any meaningful increase in offensive production, but it’s essential that the club at least maintain the current hitting level by playing combinations of Lane, Lamb and Burke in the outfield over Taveras and Wilson and spotting Bruntlett and Munson (-1/.315/.431/.746) for Everett and Ausmus. The bigger improvement should occur in pitching where the replacement of Buckholz with Clemens clearly elevates the starting rotation, while past performance indicates that Pettitte will not remain as bad as he has been to date this season. With Lidge, Wheeler and Qualls appearing to stabilize to their more typical productive performance levels, the improvement in the staff from Clemens and an improved-Pettitte should generate an above-average National League pitching staff to combine with an average or slightly below-average hitting attack. That should be good enough for the Stros to stay in the playoff race and — inasmuch as the Cardinals (37-25) have injury problems with several of their key players — a substantial improvement in the Stros’ performance levels could even propel the club into the NL Central Division title race, although one or two key mid-season player acquisitions would probably be necessary to elevate the Stros to that level of contention.
The next 16-game segment of the season starts off reasonably well with a series at Wrigley against the Cubs (26-26) and then back home to Minute Maid at the end of this week for six games against the Royals (16-45) and the Twins (28-34). But the segment ends with a brutal three-city roadie against the rugged White Sox (38-24), Tigers (40-23) and Rangers (34-29), so another near .500-type record for the next tenth of the season would not be all that bad. However, the Stros finish the pre-All-Star Game break part of the season with seven games at home against the Cubs and Cardinals in early July, so that string of games could well determine whether this Stros club is a contender or a pretender in the competition for a playoff spot during the second half of the season.