Barack Obama’s questionable economics

Thomas%20Sowell%20022607.jpegThe exceedingly clear thinking Thomas Sowell (earlier posts here and here) is reviewing Democratic Party Presidential candidate Barack Obama’s positions on economic policy and doesn’t much like what he sees:

Senator Barack Obama recently said, “let’s allow our unions and their organizers to lift up this country’s middle class again.”
Ironically, he said it at a time when Detroit automakers have been laying off unionized workers by the tens of thousands, while Toyota has been hiring tens of thousands of non-union American automobile workers. [. . .]
Senator Obama is being hailed as the newest and freshest face on the American political scene. But he is advocating some of the oldest fallacies, just as if it was the 1960s again, or as if he has learned nothing and forgotten nothing since then. [. . .]
Senator Obama is not unique among politicians who want to control prices, as if that is controlling the underlying reality behind the prices. [. . .]
The underlying reality that politicians do not want to face is that here, too, prices convey a reality that is not subject to political control. . .

One of the hardest things for politicians to resist is indulging most voters’ tendency to believe economic fallacies. Unfortunately, most politicos do the easy thing and give the voters what they want to hear. That is probably a good approach to getting elected, but it’s a lousy one for governing.

Cool graphs

From the latest report of the Congressional Budget Office. HT to Greg Mankiw.
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Robert Samuelson on the Stubborn Welfare State and the shifting priorities of the federal budget.
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Finally, Nielson Media Research’s television ratings for the post-season college football games from this past season. HT to Wizard of Odds.
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Mississippi channels Venezuela

chavez.jpgWe all knew that it was just a matter of time before this would occur in Venezuela under Hugo Chavez’s dubious economic leadership.
But, as Ted Frank explains, how were we to know that Mississippi AG Jim Hood, plaintiff’s lawyer Dickie Scruggs and Senator Trent Lott would accomplish much the same thing in regard to insurance for the citizens of Mississippi? Or that AG Hood would take the preposterous position that the state can force State Farm Insurance Co. to continue to underwrite policies in the state (Larry Ribstein has more)?
Maybe Hood could persuade Chavez to underwrite some cheap insurance for Mississippi consumers?

The fading allure of the “Superstar Cities”

night%20Houston%20skyline.jpgUrban economics expert Joel Kotkin (previous posts here) reports on the myth of the “superstar cities” in this WSJ ($) article and he sums up the bullish prospects of cities such as Houston in comparison to supposed superstar cities such as New York, San Francisco and Boston:

Economic and demographic trends suggest that the future of American urbanism lies not in the elite cities but in younger, more affordable and less self-regarding places.
Over the past 15 years, it has been opportunistic newcomers — Houston, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Riverside — that have created the most new jobs and gained the most net domestic migration. In contrast there has been virtually negligible long-term net growth in jobs or positive domestic migration to places like New York, Los Angeles, Boston or the San Francisco Bay Area.
What as much as anything distinguishes elite places — what Wharton real-estate professor Joe Gyourko calls “the superstar cities” — are their absurdly high real-estate prices. New York, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles have long been more expensive than, say, Dallas, Houston or Phoenix — but in recent years the difference in price, he calculates, has increased beyond all reason. San Francisco prices since 1950, for example, have grown at twice the national rate for the 50 largest metropolitan areas.[. . .]
This perhaps explains why the largest companies — with the notable exception of Silicon Valley — have continued to move toward the more opportunistic cities. New York and its environs, for example, had 140 such firms in 1960; in 2006 the number had dropped to less than half that, some of those running with only skeleton top management. Houston, in contrast, had only one Fortune 500 company in 1960; today it is home to over 20. Houston companies tend to staff heavily locally; this is one reason the city was able to replace New York and other high-cost locales as the nation’s unchallenged energy capital. Another example of this trend is Charlotte’s rise as the nation’s second-ranked banking center in terms of assets, surpassing San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles, indeed all superstar cities except New York.

Houston’s own urban policy wonk, Tory Gattis, has more of the Kotkin article and provides his own series of posts on why young cities such as Houston are well-positioned to take advantage of opportunities that are not rich enough for the superstar cities. Not a bad position to be in, folks.

“It’s nice to have a train car to myself”

Las%20Vegas%20monorail%20021207.jpgAbout a year ago, this post noted the boondoggle status of Las Vegas’ then new $650 million, 4.4 mile monorail project. As is typical with such boondoggles, passage of time does not make the problem any better:

Donna Washington loves riding the Las Vegas Monorail, but not for a reason that would cheer its owners.
ìIn my town, the trains are always jam-packed, so itís nice to have a train car to myself here,î said Ms. Washington, 44, a Chicagoan vacationing here. ìI do wonder, though, where all the people are.î[. . .]
. . . ridership numbers for the Disney-inspired system, which stops at nine hotel-casinos and the Las Vegas Convention Center, are falling amid a lackluster marketing campaign, technical problems and revenues so far below projections that Wall Street fears that a default on its bonds could occur by the end of the decade.
December was the monorailís worst month, with 18,197 riders per day, far below the 53,000 predicted by studies used to sell the bonds to investors and to persuade public officials to give up public right of way. Despite a management shakeup in mid-2005 that purged the company of its founding executives, the systemís average ridership plunged 31 percent in 2006, to 19,219 per day.
The companyís new chief executive, Curtis L. Myles III, said that drop was somewhat anticipated after fares were raised in December 2005 to $5 a ride from $3. That move increased revenues by 4 percent, to $31.4 million for the year, still far short of the $44.9 million needed to break even. The total cost of the system per year is about $61 million; the monorail receives about $16 million in advertising revenues from companies like Sprint, which is about to start providing wireless Internet access on the trains and has a 15,000-square-foot store at the convention center stop.
Mr. Myles acknowledged in an interview that the companyís cash reserves, estimated by Fitch at about $89 million, would run dry by 2010 if revenues did not improve. To break even, he said, the monorail would need to increase ridership by about 50 percent.

And can you guess the Las Vegas Monorail Company’s proposed solution? Of course, double-down on the monorail bet — a $500 million expansion!
Read the entire article. And yes, a similar thing could happen here.

Milton Friedman’s introduction to economics

milton-friedman-020807.jpgJames Hamilton passes along Stanford University Professor John Taylor’s touching tribute to Milton Friedman, which includes this anecdote about Friedman’s participation in an entry level economics class:

[Professor Friedman] was always willing to be a guest lecturer in my Economics 1 course, speaking to hundreds of Stanford students. He would start off telling the undergraduates that two major things the government is involved in are a mess — education and drugs — and that would set off a lively round of questions with his memorable answers impressing both those on the left and the right.

Along those same lines, Professor Friedman would agree with this cogent this Jacob Sullum/Reason op-ed that cogently explores the dubious nature of the government’s Prohibition on internet gambling and the recent governmental assault on a legitimate foreign business, Neteller PLC.

Institutionalized fanaticism

signing%20day.jpgIf your friends or co-workers who follow college football closely are acting a bit stressed out today, then it’s quite likely that the source of their anxiety is a 17 or 18 year old who they have never met.
Yes, today is that day of the absurd dubbed “National Signing Day” when we are deluged with the rather odd spectacle of grown men fawning over high school football players to induce them to come take advantage of their university’s resort facilities rather than their competition’s resort facilities. And, oh yeah, if they can earn a few “tips” from well-heeled alums while enjoying those resort facilities, then that’s alright, too.
Indeed, this NY Times article already suggests that the University of Illinois’ inexplicably strong recruiting class this year may be the result of cheating. With the proliferation of the blogosphere over the past couple of years, a host of blogs follow the recruiting wars closely and often with keen wit. The following are a few of the interesting posts on this year’s recruiting season that I’ve stumbled across:

The Wizard of Odds explains why all of this competition over the quality of recruiting classes is largely meaningless;
The Sunday Morning QB examines the strange system in which all of this has evolved;
The House that Rock Built explores the ripple effect of recruiting decisions;
Every Day Should Be a Saturday reveals how recruiting foretold Rex Grossman’s mediocre Super Bowl performance (just kidding);
A widget that displays a map reflecting where a school’s recruits are coming from; and
The College Football Resource page has more information than you should ever want to know about this year’s top recruits and where they are going.

Meanwhile, as university presidents continue to dither over this fundamentally flawed system of regulating rents, this post from a couple of years ago suggests that a better system is readily available so long as the colleges forsake being the NFL’s free minor league system, a position with which Malcolm Gladwell agrees. As noted earlier here, big-time college football as presently structured is hopelessly corrupt, but it’s a pretty darn entertaining form of corruption. Adopting a structure much closer to college baseball would likely minimize the corruptive elements of college football while not affecting the entertainment value of the sport much. But it’s going to take leadership and courage from the top of the universities to promote and implement such a reform.
What are the chances of such leadership emerging? Probably about the same as Rice knocking off Texas next season in Austin.

Romanticizing boondoggles

metrocar020107.jpgThis recent NY Times article caught my attention because it extols the virtues of Portland, Oregon’s pretty new Aerial Tram mass transit project despite the fact that it’s quite expensive relative to the number of folks who will regularly use it. These fatuous media reports that ignore the dubious underlying economics of such projects are a consistent element of urban boondoggles.
Turns out that some other folks noticed the Times story, too. Wendell Cox wrote the following letter to the NY Times editor about the article:

Re: City that Loves Mass Transit Looks to the Sky for More (January 28)
Now The New York Times has been taken in by the Portland transit hype. The ìcity that loves mass transitî shows it by not using riding very much. Today, the share of workers using transit to get to work is less than before the first light rail line was built. Today, little more than two percent of travel in the Portland area is on transit and 98 percent of motorized travel is by car. That is really not much different than automobile champion Kansas City, where the figure is above 99.5 percent. The kind of cheerleading in this article may warm the hearts of urban elites, but only serves to muddle and mislead.

Meanwhile, Houston’s own urban policy wonk — Tory Gattis — provides a balanced analysis of the Portland mass transit system in this post about a recent lecture that he attended by a fellow who was instrumental in the planning of the Portland system. The NY Times report on the Portland system reads like an advertisement in comparison to Tory’s post.

The Power of Choice

milton-friedman-6.jpgGreg Mankiw passes along that PBS has announced that it will broadcast The Power of Choice, a documentary about Milton Friedman, on January 29th.
This promises to be a special show and one that should not be missed by anyone who is interested in the course of economics and capitalism in American society. The preview for the show is up on YouTube and can be viewed here.

Lou Dobbs’ misunderstanding of the trade deficit

trade deficit.jpgCNN’s financial news anchor Lou Dobbs is arguably the highest-profile critic of the U.S. trade deficit, which demagogues often use as justification for increased regulation of free trade. Cafe Hayek’s Don Boudreaux has written extensively on how the U.S. trade deficit is really no big deal, and in this Christian Science Monitor op-ed, he takes on Dobbs over his complaints about the trade deficit. It’s not a fair fight:

Perhaps you miss this fact because you are misled by familiar trade jargon. In your book, “Exporting America,” in your columns, and on your television show you complain vigorously and often about America’s trade deficit. You call it “staggering,” and wonder how long America can continue to run such deficits.
Admittedly, the word “deficit” sounds ominous. In fact, though, America’s trade deficit is evidence of its economic vigor and promise. Here’s why:
When Americans buy foreign-made goods and services, foreigners earn dollars. The only way America would run no trade deficit is if foreigners spent all of these dollars buying goods and services from Americans. Instead, though, foreigners invest some of their dollars in America. They buy American corporate stock, they build their own factories and retail outlets in the US, they lend dollars to Uncle Sam, and they hold some dollars in reserve as cash.
Aren’t you proud that so many people the world over eagerly invest their hard-earned wealth in America?
As an American, I’m proud and optimistic. Foreigners invest in the US so readily because its economy is so strong. And even better, these investments strengthen the economy by creating more capital for American workers. These investments raise workers’ productivity and wages.
Remember: A trade deficit is not synonymous with debt.
I’m writing this letter on a new Sony computer that I bought with cash. I owe Sony nothing. If Sony holds the dollars it earned from this sale, or if it uses these dollars to buy stock in General Electric or land in Arizona – that is, as long as Sony invests its dollars in America in ways other than lending it to Americans – the US trade deficit rises without raising Americans’ indebtedness.
Americans go more deeply into debt to foreigners only when Americans borrow money from foreigners. Uncle Sam, of course, borrows a lot of money, from both Americans and from non-Americans. I share your concern about the reckless spending and borrowing practiced by politicians in Washington.
Foreigners, however, are not to blame for this recklessness. Indeed, I’m grateful that foreigners stand ready to help us pay the cost of our overblown government. Fortunately, Washington’s spending binges are not serious enough to cripple America’s entrepreneurial economy. If they were, foreigners would refuse to invest here.
If you’re still skeptical that America’s trade deficit is no cause for concern, perhaps you’ll be persuaded by Adam Smith, who wrote that “Nothing, however, can be more absurd than this whole doctrine of the balance of trade.”
Smith correctly understood that with free trade, the economy becomes larger than any one nation – a fact that brings more human creativity, more savings, more capital, more specialization, more opportunity, more competition, and a higher standard of living to all those who can freely trade.