The Chron’s last gasp?

LogoHoustonChronicle

With traditional newspapers folding left and right, it’s no surprise that the newspaper business is no bowl of cherries these days. According to this WSJ Digits blog post, that uncertainty is prompting Houston’s main daily newspaper — the Houston Chronicle — to consider some big changes:

Hearst said its newspapers plan to hold back at least some content from their free Web sites, launching the publisher onto the vanguard of print media companies to begin charging for their digital news and information.

A top executive at Hearst, which publishes 16 newspapers including the Houston Chronicle and Seattle Post-Intelligencer, said the company is mulling how much of its online offerings to keep free, while reserving some content exclusively for people who pay.

“Exactly how much paid content to hold back from our free sites will be a judgment call made daily by our management, whose mission should be to run the best free Web sites in our markets without compromising our ability to get a fair price from consumers for the expensive, unique reporting and writing that we produce each day,” Steven Swartz, the president of Hearst newspapers, said in a staff memo.

The text of the staff memo is included at the end of the blog post.

Meanwhile, financial blogger Felix Salmon, who has been following the newspaper website subscription issue for the past couple of years, thinks that the Wall Street Journal’s website subscription model — which is the business model that the Chron hopes to mirror — is doomed to failure:

My feeling is that [WSJ editor Robert] Thomson was entirely right when he said that [news] commentary had become commoditized, and that therefore you couldn’t charge for it; he also said the same thing about most news. But what he calls "specialized content" is to a large degree just taking commoditized news, and adding the kind of value that comes from informed commentators.

Yes, there are things which Dow Jones the WSJ can do and no one else can do in quite the same way — Thomson was interesting when he started talking about selling content on the subject of India to Japan, for instance. And in a world where Dow Jones is looking to individual subscriptions to make up the losses from corporate subscriptions, it’s going to be very difficult for them to start slashing those individual subscription rates to zero.

But I suspect that eventually the WSJ will do the math and work out that the best way to monetize and grow its large number of unique visitors is to maximize the time they spend on the site. And the best way to do that is to go free.

Give the Chronicle credit for taking risks in a battle for survival rather than simply fading away as many other newspapers are doing. However, I am not convinced that the Chron’s pay-for-some-content approach has much of a chance of succeeding.

Frankly, the Chronicle simply does not appear capable of producing the type of specialized content that is necessary even to have a chance of generating the level of individual subscriptions that will be necessary for success.

For example, the Chron was inexplicably behind other major newspapers and blogs in its coverage of the recent Stanford Financial Group scandal. Its follow-up coverage really has not provided any meaningful content that cannot be found elsewhere from free news sources and blogs.

Moreover, even where the Chron indisputably takes the lead in regard to a local story of national interest — such as the newspaper’s excellent coverage of the various legal cases involving former U.S. District Judge Sam Kent or its amazing coverage of Hurricane Ike — the information generated is still not sufficiently distinguishable from other free news sources so that readers will be likely to pay for the content.

Don’t get me wrong. The Chronicle is not without talent. Tech columnist Dwight Silverman is one of the most-respected writers in his field. Science reporter Eric Berger does a fine job, and Todd Ackerman has done a first-rate job of covering the Medical Center for years. Ditto for Nancy Sarnoff in regard to local real estate. The Chron sports bloggers Stephanie Stradley, Lance Zierlein and Zac Levine provide better content and analysis than the Chron’s sportswriters. I’m leaving others out who also do a fine job.

But is the specialized product that such talent generates sufficient to induce enough online readers to pay for content so that the Chronicle can transform itself into a profitable web-based news provider?

When even longtime Chronicle subscribers are seriously thinking about giving up their subscriptions, I have my doubts.

Fiddling while Rome burns

Astrodome_thumb.jpgMy wife and I attended the annual Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo Barbeque Cook-off at Reliant Park over the weekend, so we again were reminded of the wasteful land use represented by the Astrodome.

With the rodeo and related activities cramped for space and Reliant Park desperately in need of more convenient parking, why do our local leaders persist in chasing rainbows over an obsolescent stadium that is expensive to mothball and has no alternative use absent a massive and risky governmental subsidy?

Meanwhile, with our local governments already locked into tens of millions of dollars of subsidies in regard to a proposed stadium for Houston’s minor league soccer club, perhaps a few of our local leaders should review this AZCentral.com article about the bath that Glendale, Arizona is taking in regard to bailing out the Phoenix Coyotes National Hockey League team, which is the primary tenant of the Glendale’s local arena. The Coyotes have lost over $200 million since moving to Glendale five years ago.

Thus, on one hand, Houston governmental leaders waste millions annually while they dither over what should be an easy decision regarding valuable government-owned property. On the other hand, local leaders have committed tens of millions of dollars in subsidies to a venture that is far more speculative than even a National Hockey League team.

In short, our leaders are fiddling while Rome burns. And, as Leo Strauss once observed, what makes matters worse is that those leaders not only fail to realize that they are fiddling, they don’t even appear to understand that Rome is burning.

Judge Kent cops a plea

As most local lawyers expected, U.S. District Judge Sam Kent entered into a plea bargain on the courthouse steps today. The deal derailed what would have been an extremely ugly trial on sexual abuse and obstruction of justice charges, and ended Judge Kent’s 18-year career as a federal judge.

As noted, Judge Kent’s plea deal was not a surprise, although the courthouse steps nature of it was. It looks as if defense attorney Dick DeGuerin — one of Houston’s best criminal defense attorneys for this type of case — pushed the case to the brink in an attempt to gain the best possible deal, which it appears he did.

In the factual basis for the plea, Judge Kent admitted only to lying to the Fifth Circuit Judicial Council about unwanted sexual advances that he made toward a subordinate. That leaves out any admissions regarding the serious sexual abuse charges that the prosecution dismissed as a part of the plea deal. Those non-admissions have to be considered a victory for the defense in a case such as this.

Moreover, Judge Kent’s retirement will likely avoid impeachment. If so, then Judge Kent he will be able to collect his federal pension.

However, those victories probably won’t prevent Judge Kent from being sentenced to do some serious prison time. The prosecution agreed only not to recommend any more than a three-year sentence in regard to the maximum 20-year sentence that Judge Kent could receive on the obstruction charge, and visiting U.S. District Judge Roger Vinson has a reputation of handing down relatively harsh sentences. I’m no expert on sentencing, but my initial sense is that Judge Kent is looking at between a 3-5 year sentence.

That’s probably lighter than the sentence that Judge Kent would have assessed to a defendant convicted of the same charge in a similar case in his court.

But it’s not going to be a picnic, either.

A couple of questions regarding the proposed soccer stadium

dynamo-stadium-khou-above The always-entertaining Houston real estate blog, Swamplot, provided this post last week with typically pretty pictures from a KHOU-TV video of the long-proposed soccer stadium for the Houston Dynamo MLS soccer team.

Have we really been talking about this for almost two years now?

At any rate, now that the City of Houston and Harris County have committed a total of $25-30 million to the deal, and the City is on the hook for millions more in infrastructure improvements, Dynamo management is publicly representing that it is prepared to contribute another $80 million to build the stadium.

Now, I’m never seen the Dynamo’s financial statement, but my guess is that it generates between $10-15 million in revenues. Maybe that increases by 30-40% if the club gets its own stadium. A nice small business, but .  .  .

In these lean economic times, what bank is going to take the lead in loaning $80 million to a business that would have to dedicate a substantial amount of its revenue base just to pay debt service on the loan?

Is this a bankable deal? Or just pie-in-the-sky absent the local governments coughing up substantially more dough?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Can Mayor White pull off another "win-win" deal?

Bill White Although the developers of the proposed Ashby high-rise condominium project didn’t know it at the time, Houston Mayor Bill White did the developers a huge favor by putting up roadblocks to that project.

Can you imagine trying to peddle those condos in the current real estate market? Mayor White’s blocking of the condos ended being a classic "win-win" deal.

Accordingly, I wonder if Mayor White might be inclined to do the same thing in regard to Houston’s proposed soccer stadium?

Things aren’t looking too rosy for MLS soccer these days:

Major League Soccer is not quite ready to carry its own night on TV.

After two years of anemic ratings that started low and finished lower, ESPN executives decided to cancel the league’s regular Thursday night telecast on ESPN2 this season.  .  .  .

“We didn’t see the kind of ratings climb we’d like to, so we’re trying something different,” said Scott Guglielmino, ESPN vice president of programming.

The decision to cancel the regular Thursday night game marks a stunning turnaround for a league that two years ago believed it was creating destination programming that would increase interest in MLS. But even the 2007 arrival of David Beckham couldn’t boost MLS ratings.

MLS games averaged a 0.2 rating and 289,000 viewers on ESPN2 in 2007. Those numbers dropped to 0.2/253,000 viewers the following year. Its highest rating during that period was Beckham’s second regular-season game in August 2007 that earned a 0.6/658,000 households.

Canceling “MLS Primetime Thursday” is a tacit admission that MLS is not strong enough to anchor a regular prime-time slot on its own. ESPN is entering the third year of an eight-year rights deal that pays MLS $8 million annually.

So, MLS franchises are being downgraded by the most important sports programming network in the nation, which can’t be good for the value of those teams. The attendance at MLS games is poor, at least outside Houston and a couple of other cities. And the perception in sophisticated soccer circles is that the MLS is decidedly minor-league.

Meanwhile, Mayor White has already had Houstonians invest $20 million or so in buying downtown property at a premium price for the proposed soccer stadium, despite the fact that the city already owned nearby property that would have been perfectly fine for such a stadium. Moreover, the city will be on the hook for tens of millions of dollars more in infrastructure improvements if the Dynamo owners somehow cobble together their private financing for the stadium.

Now, it’s looking as if the Dynamo may not even have a viable league to play in by the time the proposed soccer stadium is completed in a couple of years.

Pull the plug on the soccer stadium, Mayor. It will be another "win-win" deal.

An entertaining upcoming week in Houston

ribstein No one in Houston this week can complain about lack of opportunity for intellectual stimulation.

First, well-known legal blogger and Clear Thinkers favorite Larry Ribstein will be lecturing on Thursday afternoon from noon to 2 p.m. at the University of Houston Law Center as the first speaker of the semester in UH Law Professor Lonny Hoffman‘s “Colloquium” course that brings noted legal scholars from around the country to UH each year to give presentations on the scholar’s work in progress.

Great teachers are a popular topic on this blog (see here and here), so I’m particularly pleased that Professor Ribstein is taking the time out of his busy schedule to visit Houston. As regular HCT readers know, Professor Ribstein is one of the premier business law scholars in the country.

The holder of the Mildred Van Voorhis Jones Chair at the University of Illinois College of Law, Professor Ribstein’s widely-read Ideoblog has been at the forefront of the blawgosphere’s enormous impact on legal analysis and education, literally pushing legal scholarship from what had been mostly closed conversations between fellow academics into a hugely valuable resource that is now readily available to anyone over the Web. Already the leading expert in the U.S. in the area of unincorporated business associations, Professor Ribstein is also one of the blawgosphere’s most insightful thinkers on corporate governance issues and the effects of regulation on markets and business. His blog has contributed as much to the understanding and appreciation of business law issues over the past five years as any resource of which I am aware.

Professor Ribstein’s talk on Thursday will be on this paper that he co-authored with George Mason University law professor Bruce Kobiyashi that examines the empirical factors that influence limited liability companies’ choice of where to organize. Seating for the talk is limited, so contact Professor Hoffman at Lhoffman@central.uh.edu or 713.743.5206 as soon as possible to reserve a seat. The lecture will be held in the Heritage Room of the UH Law Center.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday from 11:30-1:30 p.m., popular author and journalist Malcolm Gladwell will be giving a talk on his new book, Outliers, at the Hilton-Americas Houston hotel (Chron article here). Tickets are $75 and include a copy of the book and the luncheon, which is co-sponsored by Inprint, the Greater Houston Partnership and Brazos Bookstore. Contact Jill Reese at 713.844.3682 or jreese@houston.org to make reservations, the deadline for which is noon on Tuesday.

Finally, author and former Houstonian Larry McMurtry — the pre-eminent Texas writer of the past 30 years — will be giving the lecture on Wednesday evening from 7-8:00 p.m. in Rice University’s Distinguished Lecture series. The lecture will be held in the Grand Hall of Rice’s Ley Student Center and is open to the public.

Hayes Carll on the Battle of Crystal Beach

Clear Thinkers favorite Hayes Carll sings "I Got a Gig" and tells the humorous story about about his first gigs in Crystal Beach, Texas.

Marathon madness

chevronmarathon The annual running of the Houston Marathon is this weekend, so the Houston Chronicle is running its typical series of supposedly inspiring stories about various participants.

A couple of days ago, the story was about a couple of folks who had lost huge amounts of weight while training for marathons. Richard Justice wrote this column about some fellow who is so obsessive about running that he has run in "82 marathons across 26 years, four continents and 29 states."

Yesterday’s Chronicle article, however, takes the cake. Check out the headline:

Sunday’s race will be extra special for Stacie Rubin, who will be competing five months after suffering a heart attack

The story goes on to describe a Kingwood mother of four children who has run long distances daily for years. She had a heart attack while training one day and didn’t even go to the doctor’s office for several days because she was so convinced that someone as "healthy" as her could not have anything seriously wrong with her. Even after the heart attack, she was so obsessed about her long-distance training that she was back running again within a couple of weeks of the heart attack and is now planning on running in the marathon this weekend.

The Chronicle article presents all of this as heroic and the epitome of physical fitness.

Frankly, I think these stories are grossly misleading and the people telling them are badly misguided.

In my younger days, I used to run long-distances, too. I even ran a 37 minute flat 10K — 6.2 miles — once. As with most folks in my generation, I bought into the myth that long-distance running was excellent aerobic exercise that allowed me to maintain good health while eating most anything I wanted.

However, about 15 years ago, after falling out of shape during a busy time in my practice, I decided to do some extensive research into exercise protocols and nutrition to put myself back on track. After about six months of research, I concluded that most of my pre-conceived notions about exercise and nutrition were flat-out wrong.

For example, I discovered that long-distance running is neither a particularly healthy form of exercise nor an effective method of weight control.

Note, for example, this abstract from the a study published in the Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences:

Ann N Y Acad Sci. 1977;301:593-619. Related Articles, Links

Coronary heart disease in marathon runners.

Noakes T, Opie L, Beck W, McKechnie J, Benchimol A, Desser K.

Six highly trained marathon runners developed myocardial infarction. One of the two cases of clinically diagnosed myocardial infarction was fatal, and there were four cases of angiographically-proven infarction. Two athletes had significant arterial disease of two major coronary arteries, a third had stenosis of the anterior descending and the fourth of the right coronary artery. All these athletes had warning symptoms. Three of them completed marathon races despite symptoms, one athlete running more than 20 miles after the onset of exertional discomfort to complete the 56 mile Comrades Marathon. In spite of developing chest pain, another athlete who died had continued training for three weeks, including a 40 mile run. Two other athletes also continued to train with chest pain. We conclude that the marathon runners studied were not immune to coronary heart disease, nor to coronary atherosclerosis and that high levels of physical fitness did not guarantee the absence of significant cardiovascular disease. In addition, the relationship of exercise and myocardial infarction was complex because two athletes developed myocardial infarction during marathon running in the absence of complete coronary artery occlusion. We stress that marathon runners, like other sportsmen, should be warned of the serious significance of the development of exertional symptoms. Our conclusions do not reflect on the possible value of exercise in the prevention of coronary heart disease. Rather we refute exaggerated claims that marathon running provides complete immunity from coronary heart disease.

This recent University of Maryland Medical Center study examines another health risk of long-distance running.

Art DeVany — who has been studying physiology and exercise protocols for years — has written a series of blog posts over the years regarding the unhealthy nature and outright dangers of long-distance running. DeVany points out that many endurance runners in fact are not particularly healthy people, often suffering from lack of muscle mass, overuse injuries, dangerous inflammation and dubious nutrition.

Similarly, in this timely article, Mark Sisson lucidly explains why endurance training is hazardous to one’s health. Here is a snippet:

The problem with many, if not most, age group endurance athletes is that the low-level training gets out of hand. They overtrain in their exuberance to excel at racing, and they over consume carbohydrates in an effort to stay fueled. The result is that over the years, their muscle mass, immune function, and testosterone decrease, while their cortisol, insulin and oxidative output increase (unless you work so hard that you actually exhaust the adrenals, introducing an even more disconcerting scenario). Any anti-aging doc will tell you that if you do this long enough, you will hasten, rather than retard, the aging process. Studies have shown an increase in mortality when weekly caloric expenditure exceeds 4,000. [. . .]

Now, what does all this mean for the generation of us who bought into Ken Cooper’s "more aerobics is better" philosophy? Is it too late to get on the anti-aging train? Hey, we’re still probably a lot better off than our college classmates who gained 60 pounds and can’t walk up a flight of stairs. Sure, we may look a little older and move a little slower than we’d like, but there’s still time to readjust the training to fit our DNA blueprint. Maybe just move a little slower, lift some weights, do some yoga and eat right and there’s a good chance you’ll maximize the quality of your remaining years… and look good doing whatever you do.

In this recent post, Sisson describes a weekly method of aerobic exercise that provides most of the health benefit derived from long-distance running at a fraction of the time expenditure and at far less risk of injury. Add in a couple of short (about 20-25 minutes sessions) weight-training sessions per week to maintain your lead body mass, lead an active recreational lifestyle and observe balanced
nutrition, and you are likely to be far healthier than the folks who are spending untold hours beating themselves up running long-distances.

If you are interested in developing such a plan, check out both DeVany and Sisson’s blogs. They provide a wealth of information on how to tailor an efficient exercise and nutrition plan.