This earlier post explored the possibility that Stros management got snookered in the trade for pitcher Jason Jennings because of possible undisclosed arm problems. After serving a stint on the disabled list with elbow inflammation earlier this season, Jennings has come back to pitch sport a 4.76 ERA in 70 innings, which means that Jennings has given up 5 more runs than an average National League pitcher would have given up in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here). To top off this uninspiring season-long performance, Jennings gave up 7 earned runs in 5 innings in his last outing against the hapless Nationals (40-55). That prompted the following observation from Baseball Prospectus ($) injury expert, Will Carroll:

“He’s done,” the source told me after watching Jason Jennings pitch [against the Nationals]. A very knowledgeable man that I trust on pitching, he thinks that Jennings’ shoulder is “catching,” reducing his velocity and changing his mechanics enough to reduce movement. He also doesn’t believe that Jennings made any improvement after a DL stint, implying that there’s more going on inside the arm. Jennings’ results back up this assertion, and point to perhaps another period on the DL in the near future. With Jennings’ impending free agency, it will be curious how the Astros handle this. Will they acknowledge their trade for Jennings didn’t work, or will they try to get whatever they can from him in a season that’s lost?

Thus, the trade for Jennings — which was a reasonable risk at the time — is not turning out well. At least the Stros can take solace in the fact that they didn’t give up much in the trade — all three of the players that the Stros gave up (pitchers Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz, and centerfielder Willy Taveras) have been below-average so far during their Major League careers and none of them is above-average this season.
Nevertheless, many Stros fans — apparently confused by the club’s poor play this sesaon — think the Jennings deal was a horrible trade. Earlier this week, I even heard a host of one of the ubiquitous sports talk shows on Houston’s radio landscape — a barren wasteland of insightful thought with the exception of Charlie Pallilo and a couple of others — predict that “the Jennings trade will go down as one of the worst trades in Stros history.”
Come on. The radio host apparently did not take the time to review the Stros’ extraordinary legacy of bad trades:

1971: The Stros traded secondbaseman Joe Morgan in the prime of his career, pitcher Jack Billingham, shortstop Denis Menke, and outfielders Cesar Geronimo and Ed Armbrister to Cincinnati for firstbaseman Lee May, secondbaseman Tommy Helms and utility infielder Jimmy Stewart. Morgan cemented his Hall of Fame career with the Reds, while Billingham and Geronimo were also solid contributors in the Reds’ World Series teams of the 1970’s. For many years, this trade set the standard by which bad trades in Major League Baseball were compared.
1969: The Stros traded slugging outfielder Rusty Staub in the prime of his career to Montreal for Jesus Alou and Donn Clendenon. When Clendenon refused to report, Houston agreed to take pitchers Jack Billingham and Skip Guinn instead. The Stros did not have another hitter the caliber of Staub for over 20 years until Jeff Bagwell joined the club in 1991. Clendenon went on to help the Mets win the 1969 World Series.
1992: The Stros traded 24-year old pitcher Curt Schilling to Philadelphia for pitcher Jason Grimsley. Schilling went on to become one of the best starting pitchers of the following 15 year era and saved his teams 345 more runs over that period than an average National League pitcher would have saved during that time pitching the same number of innings.
1991: The Stros traded 24-year old centerfielder Kenny Lofton and infielder Dave Rohde to Cleveland for catcher Eddie Taubensee and pitcher Willie Blair. Over the past 16 seasons, Lofton has generated 234 more runs than an average National League player would have created over that span using the same number of outs as Lofton. Just to rub it in, the now 40-year old Lofton had his best series of the season several weeks ago against the Stros while playing with the Rangers.
1994: The Stros traded thirdbaseman Ken Caminiti, centerfielder Steve Finley, shortstop Andujar Cedeno, firstbaseman Roberto Petagine and pitchers Brian Williams and Sean Fesh to San Diego for outfielder Derek Bell, pitcher Doug Brocail, shortstop Ricky Gutierrez, pitcher Pedro Martinez (no, not that Pedro Martinez) outfielder Phil Plantier and infiedler Craig Shipley. Caminiti proceeded to become one of the best sluggers in the National League over the next four seasons with the Padres, while Finley has been a well above-average centerfielder for the past 13 seasons. On the other hand, Bell in 1999 had one of the worst seasons by an outfielder in Stros history by generating 32 fewer runs than an average National League player would have created using the same number of outs as Bell used.
1968: The Stros traded starting pitcher Mike Cuellar to Baltimore for Curt Blefary and John Mason. Cuellar went on to have a career season for the Orioles in 1969 (41 RSAA) and was a dominant starter for the O’s for the following five seasons. Blefary played one average season for the Stros before they traded him to the Yankees.
1971: The Stros traded 23 year old slugging firstbaseman John Mayberry and Dave Grangaard to Kansas City for pitchers Lance Clemons and Jim York. Over the next four seasons, Mayberry had the most productive stretch of his career as he generated 175 more runs during those seasons than an average National League player would have created using the same number of outs as Mayberry.

1998: The Stros traded SS Carlos Guillen and pitchers Freddy Garcia and John Halama to the Mariners for Randy Johnson. Johnson gave the Stros what they wanted — an ERA of 1.28 in 11 stretch-drive starts and a 1.93 ERA in two NLDS starts. But the Stros lost in the NLDS and Johnson signed with the Dbacks the next season. Guillen went on to become a three-time All-Star, Garcia, who won 117 games over the following nine seasons and Halama was a National League-league pitcher over the next eight seasons. This marked the beginning of the decline in the Stros’ farm system that now ranks as one of the worst in MLB.

If Hirsh, Buchholz or Taveras turns into a star player, then maybe the Jennings deal will be included among these truly horrid Stros trades. But until then, the Jennings trade will remain simply a reasonable risk that did not work out.