This is my first periodic review or the Stros’ season in my third straight year of blogging the club, and the first 10% of the season has has initially justified my generally rosy pre-season outlook. The club has burst out of the gate with a Major League-best 11-5 record and, with the exception of the relief pitching, every other part of the club has been performing at above-expected levels so far.
As regular readers know, I’m a stathead with regard to analyzing baseball, so here are the key stats of the Stros’ hitters (pdf of hitting stats here) and pitchers (pdf of pitching stats here) through the first 16 games, courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia:
The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same is done for the pitching stats here.
16 games is not a large enough sample size of games to draw definitive conclusions about the Stros this season, so the following are just some good and bad trends that I see through the first 10% of the season:
The Good: The Stros are off to an 11-5 start.
The Bad: Most of the games have been against the likes of the Marlins (5-10), the Nationals (7-10), the D-Backs (7-10) and the Pirates (5-13), all of which are likely to be bottom-feeders in the standings this season. Thus, before getting too excited, let’s wait to see how the Stros do against better-quality competition.
The Good: 3B Ensberg (22 RCAA/.522 OBA/.964 SLG./ 1.486 OPS) and 1B Berkman (18/.408/.721/1.130) are absolutely raking the ball right and both of them are off to All-Star quality starts. Berkman recently went over 300 RCAA for his career and now ranks behind only Bags and Bidg on the all-time Stros RCAA list:
1 Jeff Bagwell 680
2 Craig Biggio 351
3 Lance Berkman 300
4 Jose Cruz 277
5 Cesar Cedeno 249
6 Jimmy Wynn 240
7 Bob Watson 216
8 Joe Morgan 170
9 Moises Alou 128
10 Terry Puhl 114
The Bad: Newly-acquired LF Preston Wilson (-5/ .273/.435/.708) is looking more like a bust each day. Wilson’s spiral downward bottomed out this past week (we hope) against the Brewers when he tied a major league record with 11 strikeouts in the three game series, picked up a golden sombrero (four strikeouts in one game) and a “plutonium sombrero” (five K’s in one game — hat tip to John Lopez) plus two more in the middle game of the series. Given Chris Burke‘s improved production (2/.389/.563/.951) in limited play to date, Wilson is probably not a better option than Burke in left field.
The Good: Although off to a slow start hitting the ball, RF Jason Lane (0/.357/.429/.786) is showing much better plate discipline and has a team-leading 14 walks in 70 plate appearances after drawing only 32 walks in 561 plate appearances last season. Moreover, light-hitting but superlative-fielding shortstop Adam Everett (0/.333/.444/.778) has had his best hitting start this and is showing some pop in his bat (five extra base hits in 57 plate appearances). Even C Brad Ausmus (3/.489/.361/.850) — arguably the worst-hitting regular player in the National League — has parleyed improved plate discipline into a decent start. Above-average hitting seasons from these three would be a big boost for the Stros’ chances to reach the post-season.
The Bad: Willy Taveras (-5/ .324/.328/.652) is a horrble drag on the Stros lineup from a hitting standpoint. Not only does Taveras lack power (two extra-base hits in 73 plate appearances), the speedy centerfielder has not stolen a base yet and has been caught stealing two times! And despite their relatively strong starts, Ausmus has precisely one extra base hit (a double) in 47 plate appearances and Everett has drawn only two walks in his 57 plate appearances. Neither Taveras nor Everett likely to become a National League-average hitter unless they draw more walks.
The Good: The freak-of-nature Bidg (-2/.338/.450/.788) continues his power surge from last season with seven extra-base hits in 65 plate appearances.
The Bad: Bidg’s power surge has come at the expense of plate discipline, which is hurting his on-base average. After having only 37 walks in 651 plate appearances last season, Bidg has only 2 walks in his first 65 plate appearances this season. Inasmuch as Taveras has a below-National League average OBA, Bidg needs to maintain an at least average OBA to help generate baserunners at the top of the Stros’ lineup. It’s hard for a player to have even an average OBA if he is not drawing plenty of walks.
The Good: Veteran starters Roy O (6 RSAA/2.76 ERA) and Pettitte (-2/5.25) (Pettitte’s numbers are deceptively elevated because of a horrid first game), and young starters Wandy Rodriguez (6/2.52) and Taylor Buchholz (2/3.18) have all had solid starts to the season.
The Bad: Backe‘s elbow injury (on the disabled list and probably out for at least a couple of months) hurts the already shaky starting pitching depth and no one else has stepped up to take Backe’s place in the rotation. The Stros could definitely use the Rocket come the first of May. Moreover, the bullpen has been generally shaky so far this season, but that appears to be more a function of working the kinks out during the early part of the season rather than a talent problem. My sense is that Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls remain a highly formidable trio at the end of games for the Stros.
The Good: Chronicle sports columnist Richard Justice, who has made frequent snarky comments toward Stros owner Drayton McLane, actually pens a nice column about McLane.
The Bad: The filing by the Stros of the lawsuit against the insurer of the disability insurance policy on Jeff Bagwell confirmed that the baseball career of the greatest player in Stros history is over.
So, all in all, a great start, but there are definitely enough warning clouds on the horizon that Stros fans shouldn’t be ordering their playoff tickets just yet. After finishing this weekend’s series with the Pirates, the Stros play three against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park, then go on road to face the resurgent Reds, Brewers, Rockies and Dodgers again with only a couple of games at home during that time against the Cardinals. Consequently, the schedule gets a big tougher for the Stros in the next 10% of their season, so a cool down from the club’s hot start should be expected.
Tom —
The stat chart is unreadable for me. It’s way too small.
Evan, I know what you mean. It’s a bit difficult to include all the stats on the blog page in a readable form. I’ve added pdfs of both hitting and pitching stats to the post so that the stats will be easier to read.
“The Bad: Most of the games have been against the likes of the Marlins (5-10), the Nationals (7-10), the D-Backs (7-10) and the Pirates (5-13), all of which are likely to be bottom-feeders in the standings this season. Thus, before getting too excited, let’s wait to see how the Stros do against better-quality competition.”
That’s true, but look on the bright side. They’re winning the games that they’re supposed to win rather than playing down to the level of their competition.
ìThe Bad: Bidg’s power surge has come at the expense of plate discipline, which is hurting his on-base average.î
The ìBidgî is well aware that his career is coming to an end. He only has so much time to get to 3,000 hits—and 300 home runs. This may seem strange, but Bidge is now the 153rd leading home run hitter of all time! He should pass up Roger Marisí 275 career homers before the end of the year.