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April 03, 2006
Batter up! Stros 2006 Season Preview
It's Opening Day today in Houston as the Stros take on the Marlins this afternoon at Minute Maid Park, so it's time for my annual preview of the Stros upcoming team and season (last season's preview is here). Let's first review what happened over the 2005 season and the off-season:
First, the improbable ride to the 2005 World Series.An off-season snarky week in Strosland and Richard Justice's continued petty criticism of Drayton McLane and Tim Purpura.
Why Milo Hamilton is wrong when he claims that Willy Taveras should have been National League Rookie-of-the-Year.
Comparing bad off-season deals and Roger Clemens, player agent.Reviewing the top ten Stros minor league prospects.
Acquiring Preston Wilson may upgrade leftfield, but he's no slugger.
Why Gene Elston should still be the Stros play-by-play announcer and the Stros connection to the latest Hall of Fame inductee.
The muddle over the disability insurance policy on Jeff Bagwell (here, here, here, here and here), the greatest player in Stros history prepares for the Hall of Fame, and something about steroids that Stros fans may soon be hearing about.
So, with that backdrop, the Stros begin their quest to make the National League playoffs for the seventh time in the past ten seasons as they close out the remarkably successful Biggio ros to make the playoffs this season because the pitching probably will not be as good as last season. Most importantly, it remains unclear at this point whether the Rocket will return in May to attempt to add a third straight playoff run with his hometown team. Even if he does, it is highly unlikely that the 43 year-old Clemens will be able to match his incredible 2005 season performance in which he saved the Stros an incredible 53 runs more than an average National League pitcher would have saved in the same number of innings pitched ("RSAA," explained here).
Similarly, it's just as unlikely that 34 year-old Andy Pettitte, whose 43 RSAA last season was second only to Clemens in the National League, will be able to match that performance in 2006. Thus, even though the Stros pitching staff's 100 team RSAA in 2005 was second only to the Cardinals staff's 130 among the 16 National League teams, it is not likely that the Stros 2006 staff will be able to approach that total.
That's not to say that the Stros do not have some talented new pitchers ready to contribute. For example, rookie Taylor Buchholz, who was the key to the Billy Wagner trade with the Phillies from a couple of years ago, has been the best starting pitcher on the club during Spring Training. He earned a place in the starting rotation and clearly has good enough stuff to become an above-average National League starter. However, Buchholz has had arm and shoulder problems over the past two seasons in the minors and it is decidedly unclear whether he can survive the rigors of an entire MLB season.
Meanwhile, Brandon Backe, despite his heroics during the club's playoff runs over the past two seasons, still has not pitched more than 150 innings in one MLB season, had a horrible Spring Training and has not yet ever achieved a positive RSAA for a season as a starter. The Stros other starter coming out of Spring Training -- lefthander Wandy Rodriguez -- was basically horrible last season (-20 RSAA), although a deceptively good won/loss record misleads casual observers into thinking that he was better than he really was.
The Stros do have some good, albeit inexperienced, pitchers (Fernando Nieve and Jason Hirsch being the first two) available if Backe, Buchholz or Rodriguez falters, and the bullpen anchored by Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls will likely be one of the NL's best. But there is no question that the starting pitching after Roy O and Pettitte is the 2006 club's biggest question mark coming into the season.
The Stros made a couple of other off-season moves that bode well for the club. First, the versatile Burke looks as if he may play a considerable amount this season at shortstop, which would be a definite hitting upgrade over Everett at that position. Moreover, the Stros finally acquired a catcher who has the potential to hit, former Tigers first-round draft bust Eric Munson. Converted from first base back to his original position of catcher after being picked up by the Stros on waivers during the off-season, Munson mashed the ball during Spring Training and earned the backup catcher role behind Ausmus, who remains one of the weakest hitters among National League starting players. Giving at bats to Burke and Munson rather than Everett and Ausmus is likely to generate more runs for the Stros, and the Stros bench of Burke, Munson, Mike Lamb, Orlando Palmeiro and Eric Bruntlett is one of the strongest that the Stros have fielded in over the past decade.
As far as the Stros' competition is concerned, The Cardinals' veteran starting pitching and strong hitting make them the favorite again in the NL Central Division, and the Brewers and the Cubs both have enough talent to contend. However, barring injury to key players and if Clemens can provide a boost come May, I remain cautiously optimistic that this Stros club could get into the 90's in wins for the season and achieve a third straight playoff berth. If the hitting is better than expected and the pitching comes close to last season's performance, then the Stros might even challenge the Cards for the best regular season record in the division.
Thus, as the Biggio-Bagwell era draws to a close, the Berkman-Oswalt-Ensberg-Lane-Lidge nucleus of this club has taken over, and that's a formidable group for the Stros to build around over at least the next five seasons. If the Stros can acquire another couple of above-average hitters while maintaining their strong corps of young pitchers within the organization, then I see no reason why the Stros cannot continue to contend for playoff berths over the next 5-7 seasons just as they have over the past 12 years. That would be a pretty darn good 20 year run, don't you think?
By the way, every Stros game will be televised this season — 130 on FSN Houston, 25 on KNWS (Channel 51), six Saturday games on KRIV (Channel 26) and a Sunday game on ESPN.
Finally, I have decided to modify my review routine slightly from the past two seasons in regard to blogging the Stros. After blogging every Stros game in the 2004 season and then providing weekly reviews during the 2005 season, I have decided this season to review the Stros progress after each 10% segment of the 2006 season, which works out to be essentially ten 16 game segments over the course of the 162-game Major League Season. Hopefully, that approach will allow me to provide a bit more perspective into the club's progress than is feasible while doing daily or weekly summaries, so look for my Stros 2006 Review, Part One after the first 16 games of the season.