The Chronicle continues to defy reality

astrodome%20112107.jpgAs noted in this earlier post on the improbable Astrodome hotel redevelopment project (previous posts here), the Chronicle continues to beat the drum in support of the deal without any meaningful financial or economic analysis. The intro to the editorial reveals the depth of the Chron editorial board’s analysis — “The public favors preserving the world’s first indoor stadium; all parties should cooperate to do that.”
Here are just a few of the questions that the Chronicle editorial board should be asking:

If the Astrodome were not in Reliant Park, would anyone in their right mind even be thinking of investing over a half billion dollars to build a 1,300 room resort hotel in the middle of Reliant Park?
If the answer to the prior question is “no,” then why should anyone in their right mind even be thinking of investing over a half billion dollars to build a 1,300 room resort hotel in the middle of Reliant Park simply because the decrepit hulk of the Dome is there?
In one of the tightest credit and equity markets in years, and with many economic forecasters predicting a U.S. recession over the next 12-18 months, who realistically is going to fund the half billion dollars that the promoters claim is necessary to convert the Dome into a resort hotel?
If the promoters have not been able to put together a viable plan for redevelopment of the Dome in over three years of trying, then why are we still talking about this?

The red-light camera scam

Red_Light_Camera.jpgAnne Linehan over at blogHouston.net has been doing a good job of following the City of Houston’s red-light camera scam on its citizens. As Anne’s post notes, it’s not at all clear that the red light cameras are reducing accidents or that they are even generating enough revenue to justify the cost of the program.
Although red-light cameras sound peachy in theory, my sense is that they are quite likely to cause more accidents, not fewer. As drivers become aware of the cameras, more rear-end collisions will likely result as drivers slam on their brakes at the first sight of yellow to avoid the risk of being photographed running a red-light. The red-light cameras should have been carefully evaluated first and then installed only after it was established that they truly increase safety. That they were installed without such an evaluation reveals that the cameras are nothing more than another local government money grab. And not even a particularly effective one at that.

Lubbock is just a tough place, period

lubbock%20map.gifAs this earlier post notes, Lubbock — the home of the Texas Tech Red Raiders — is a tough place to play for visiting college football teams.
But the video below shows that Lubbock is also a tough place for at least a couple of the hundreds of excited Tech fans who rushed the field after Tech’s Saturday night victory over fourth-ranked Oklahoma.
What on earth are these police officers thinking?

A real insurance fraud

Insurance%20fraud.jpgI’ve been meaning to pass along this James Q. Wilson/WSJ ($) op-ed that lucidly describes the crisis that has developed in property insurance markets along the Gulf Coast as a result of the litigation risk and attendant cost of clearly inapplicable claims being asserted against property insurance policies:

When Hurricane Katrina hit our southern coast, it was the worst natural disaster in American history, killing 1,800 people, forcing more than a million to evacuate the area, and putting four-fifths of New Orleans under water. In the struggle to recover from this event, people turned to their insurance companies for help. Thousands of claims were handled, but for some people there wasn’t any coverage. The problem was they were not insured against flooding.
Insurance companies’ policies are quite clear on this, and state insurance departments, including the ones in Mississippi and New Orleans, have approved these rules. The homeowners’ policy issued by State Farm, for example, says that water damage from a flood, waves, tidal waves, or a tsunami are not covered. . . .
The reason for the exclusion of water damage is quite clear: Hardly any insurance company wants to encourage people to build or occupy structures in places where such damage is likely. If they did allow this, either the company would go bankrupt from losses it could not pay or it would have to charge a premium so high that hardly anyone could afford the insurance. Even without water-damage coverage, insurance companies paid out around $40 billion to Katrina victims. [. . .]
Not content with these policies and rules, trial lawyers and politicians in Mississippi demanded that insurance companies should be required to pay for flood losses even though they were not covered by the policies. Richard “Dickie” Scruggs, a veteran of class-action suits, and Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood worked together to create a lawsuit that would retrospectively ban the flood exclusion rule. (Mr. Scruggs was a major source of campaign money for Attorney General Hood.) At the same time, Rep. Gene Taylor from Mississippi urged Congress to require a retroactive payment of flood insurance. Never mind what the homeowners’ insurance policies said or what their coverage was, demanding money to which they were not entitled became “good public policy.” [. . .]
In time some measure of sanity was restored. A federal district court judge upheld the flood exclusion in insurance policies, a view that was affirmed by the Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. More recently, the Fifth Circuit has affirmed that there is no coverage when an excluded peril (such as flooding) and a covered one (such as windstorms) both contribute to the same damage. A Louisiana state judge agreed that policies not written to provide flood insurance did not, in fact, provide it. . . .
But the return of sanity was of short duration. In June Mr. Scruggs filed a lawsuit against State Farm saying that it engaged in racketeering, and Attorney General Hood filed a new civil lawsuit — and then followed up with another grand jury investigation contrary to his prior agreement with State Farm. One wonders how its claims adjusters feel when they are told that they are no better than members of the Mafia.
In light of all this, State Farm announced earlier this year that it would no longer sell new homeowners’ policies in Mississippi, not to punish people there but because politicians had made it impossible to do business in an orderly way. In response, Attorney General Hood demanded that the governor order State Farm to write new policies. Gov. Haley Barbour replied, quite reasonably, that he does not have the authority to tell a private company that it must do business in his state. There will no doubt be congressional investigations of the insurance business because it did what it told people it was doing.

And Hood calls himself a public “servant” (see earlier post here)?

Nicklaus sours on the public corporation

JackNicklaus.jpgThis Bloomberg video interview reveals that you can count legendary PGA Tour champion Jack Nicklaus as another businessman who has had enough of the public form of corporation:

The biggest mistake I ever did was let my guys talk me into taking a part of the company public. That was the biggest mistake I ever made. I had no idea what–what the rules and laws were of a public company. And we did a public company. And a lot of people lost money, including me…It was a great lesson. But, you know, if you’re gonna get into that business, you better know what the devil you’re doing.

Nicklaus discusses a number of different topics during the 20 minute interview, including his golf course design business and the evolution of Tiger Woods. Check it out.

The economics of divorce lawyers

divorce.jpgTim Harford passes along some interesting data on the economic impact of hiring a lawyer in connection with a divorce:

The Austrian economist Martin Halla has collected data from divorce proceedings in his home country, and he finds a curious pattern. Husbands end up paying the smallest alimony when no lawyers are involved. If the husband hires a lawyer, but his wife does not, the alimony payment rises (and then there are fees to be paid, too). If the wife hires a lawyer, or the couple hires a joint lawyer, the husband forks out still more. Worst case scenario for hubby is if both sides hire their own lawyer. On top of that the proceedings are longer and more expensive.

One of the funniest war stories about attorneys’ fees that I’ve ever heard involved a couple of old Houston litigators fighting over a divorce estate. Remind me to pass it along when we bump into each other.

2007 Weekly local football review

Andre%20Johnson%20111907.jpg(AP Photo/Dave Einsel; previous weekly reviews here)
Texans 23 Saints 10

The Texans (5-5) enjoyed the return from their bye week with a convincing win over the Saints (4-6), who appear to be a shadow of the team that played in the NFC Championship Game last season. QB Matt Schaub (21/33 for 293 yds, 2 TD’s, no ints), who had his best game as a Texan, and previously injured star WR Andre Johnson (6 rec, 120 yds, 1 TD (73)) were particularly effective, while the Texans defense led by DE Mario Williams and an undermanned but feisty secondary kept the Saints’ offense off-rhythm for much of the game. The Texans go on the road over the next two weeks for games against the Browns (6-4) and the Titans (6-3) before returning home for three of the season’s last four games.

Houston Cougars 35 Marshall 28

The Cougars (7-4/6-2) kept their fleeting Conference USA title hopes alive with a close win over Marshall (2-9/2-5) as the potent Houston offense came alive in the 2nd half after taking a long nap during the debacle last week against Tulsa and during the first half of this game. The Coogs finish up their regular season with a non-conference game next Saturday against hapless Division I-AA Texas Southern (0-10) while awaiting the outcome of Rice’s grudge match against Tulsa at Rice Stadium. If the Owls can pull off the upset against Tulsa, then the Coogs win the CUSA West division title and advance to the conference championship game on December 1st against Central Florida.

Tulane 45 Rice 31

The Owls (3-8/3-4) modest three game winning streak came to an end as Tulane RB Matt Forde rolled up 194 yards and 5 TD’s against Rice’s overwhelmed defense. Rice’s Chase Clement was 35-of-55 passing for 353 yards and four touchdowns, and — with 379 total yards — set a Rice season record for total offense with 3,319 yards. The Owls could do a big favor for their cross-town rival Cougars by upsetting Tulsa (8-3/5-2) in the Todd Graham Grudge Match next Saturday at Rice Stadium. However, without a meaningful defense, the Owls offense will probably have to put 60 points on the board against Tulsa for Rice to have a chance to win the game.

Texas (9-2/5-2) and Texas A&M (6-5/3-4) were idle this weekend as they prepare for their annual Friday afternoon (2:30 p.m./ABC) game, which has taken on added importance with Oklahoma’s (9-2/5-2) loss to Texas Tech (8-4/4/4) on Saturday night. If the Horns beat the Aggies and a beat-up OU loses to Oklahoma State (6-5/4-3) next Saturday, then the Longhorns will win the Big 12 South Division and represent the division in the Big 12 championship game in San Antonio on December 1st.
And finally, in another type of football, the Houston Dynamo won its second straight Major League Soccer Cup Title, defeating the New England Revolution 2-1. The Dynamo are the first team to win back-to-back MLS Cups since D.C. United did so in 1996-97. The Dynamo will celebrate their latest championship on Tuesday at Houston City Hall from 5:30-7:30 p.m.

Transit survey raises more questions than it answers

metroraillogo%20111907.gifIsn’t it interesting the different reactions that Anne Linehan, Charles Kuffner and Tory Gattis had to the 2007 Houston Area Survey regarding transit options? The Chronicle and other light rail enthusiasts immediately seized upon the survey as evidence that Houston-area residents want to dump more money into the light rail money pit.
But the problem with such surveys is that they generally ask people questions in a vacuum and do not address Peter Gordon’s three elegantly simple questions regarding economic choices:
1) At what cost?
2) Compared to what? and
3) How do you know?
For example, assume for a moment that the persons surveyed were informed of the fact that the average urban freeway lane costs about $10 million per mile and that the average light rail line costs about $50 million per mile while carrying only one-fifth as many people as the freeway lane. And these are only average figures — as Randal O’Toole recently pointed out, Seattle’s recently rejected light rail expansion was projected to cost $250 million per mile, a whopping 125 times more expensive at moving people than a freeway.
Moreover, let’s also assume that the persons surveyed are informed that the expenditure of a billion or so of public money on expanding a poorly-used light rail system has real consequences, such as leaving inadequate funds to make improvements to Houston’s infrastructure that would dramatically decrease the risk of death and property damage from flooding. Or whether the billion or so being flushed down the light rail drain would be better used to fix various area traffic “hotspots” where accidents or bottlenecks occur with high frequency.
No one knows for sure, but my bet is that the survey results would be dramatically different if the foregoing costs and alternatives were included as a part of the survey. It’s a shame that neither the City’s current leaders nor the mainstream media are asking the simple questions set forth above that would generate a meaningful cost-benefit analysis and ensuing well-informed debate regarding continued investment in expensive public works projects such as Metro’s light rail system.
Instead, we get this:

Metro executive vice president John Sedlak led off [a presentation to the Transportation Policy Council, a group of elected officials and agency staffers that sets priorities for transportation spending in the 13-county Gulf Coast planning region] with a slide show describing the [proposed Metro University light rail line] project and told the panel its approval was needed so Metro could get federal funding and start engineering work.
If there was a short delay, Holm asked, “What would be the consequence?”
Sedlak replied that the project is on “an aggressive schedule” and that a delay “would send a message to Washington that there are issues with our overall program.”
Holm asked why Washington would think there were issues and not just loose ends to tie up.
“They watch every activity that takes place very carefully,” Sedlak said. “The federal government is aware we are having this meeting today.”
Holm asked what the application deadline was. Sedlak said it was “in the month of December.”
“If the delay was just a few days, would it jeopardize the funding of the entire program?” Holm asked.
“I truly believe it could,” Sedlak replied.
Kemah Mayor Bill King had questions, too.
How many more passengers would the rail carry than the buses on Richmond do now?
Sedlak said he did not know, but Metro could get him the answer.
King asked how the line would impact traffic on Richmond.
Sedlak said there would be some negative effects, but the finished line should “take vehicles off the street.” Numerical estimates are in the line’s environmental impact document, he said.
Holm spoke again, her voice a little shaky.
“There are cities,” she said, “that have never been turned down for a funding request. It’s not because they agree on everything they want. It’s because they do their due diligence and they do their battles at home.
“We need to still build consensus in this community. We need to be able to walk hand-in-hand in supporting a project,” she said.

Update: As usual, Tory Gattis has additional insightful thoughts.

“In the Hamptons”

As economists such as Nouriel Roubini increasingly predict a recession and a hard landing for the U.S. economy, Merle Hazard channels Merle Haggard, Arthur Laffer, Milton Friedman, Mac Davis, Ben Bernanke and Elvis — to name just a few — in expressing Wall Street’s current trepidation. It doesn’t get any better than “In the Hamptons” (H/T to the NY Times via Larry Ribstein):

Thinking about the Bonds case

bbonds%20111707.jpgTwo topics on this blog are legal matters and baseball, so Barry Bonds has been a frequent subject of posts here over the past four years. Inasmuch as this post from over two years ago speculated that Bonds would be indicted, regular readers of this blog weren’t surprised when the shoe finally dropped on Bonds this past week.
The Bonds indictment was met with typical self-righteous vindication by much of the mainstream media, but the blogs have thankfully provided a much more measured analysis of the charges. For example:

Peter Henning provides this excellent analysis (see also here) of the indictment and the probable course of the prosecution. Also, JC Bradbury compiles some thoughts from other legal commentators about the Bonds case, and Keith Scherer provides this extensive analysis of the Bonds case;
Norm Pattis provides this interesting post that analyzes the probable prison sentence that Bonds is facing, which is far less than those typically reported in the mainstream media. Thankfully, Bonds does not appear to face a draconian trial penalty if he chooses to defend himself at trial;
Reason’s Hit & Run blog provides this balanced compendium of blog posts and articles from over the years that remind us that witch hunts are common when a controversial person such as Bonds is prosecuted for covering up an alleged crime when the investigation was actually into the alleged crime, not the cover up; and
Along those same lines, Scott Henson questions the prosecution’s motives and judgment in pursuing Bonds.

And as Bonds is being singled out while more popular ballplayers have had a pass on being investigated for alleged illegal use of steroids, I’m trying to figure out why the Apple Rule is not available to protect Bonds? Could it be for the same reason that it was not available to former heavyweight boxing champion Jack Johnson during an earlier era?