Monthly Archives: September 2007

DeLong on the rise from poverty

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1900%20MckinleyTeddy1900.jpgYeah, things might be a bit testy lately in the credit markets, but Brad DeLong does a magnificent job of reminding us just how much better we have it than folks who lived not all that long ago:

. . . in 1905 an anonymous American college professor–“G.H.M.”–wrote a four-page article for the Atlantic Monthly in which he pleaded for more money for college professor salaries, and claimed to be vastly underpaid. The first thing to note is his salary: he claimed that the “average college professorís salary”–the salary that he saw as clearly inadequate and unfairly low–“is about $2,000” in the dollars of that day, 1900. Yet Stan Lebergott’s estimates in the Historical Statistics of the United States are that the average annual earnings of an employee in America in 1905 were $490 dollars if employed for the entire year (or $451 taking account of the hazards of unemployment): $2,000 was four times average of GDP per worker at the turn of the century. In order to match turn-of-the-century professors in terms of income relative to the national average, a professor today would have to make an academic salary of $300,000ña height rarely attained, and far above any average.

There is much more, so don’t miss it. DeLong’s chapter is a vivid reflection of the power of compounding economic growth. Sort of makes you wonder about those folks who advocate shaving a bit of economic growth here and there to promote some special interest. Over a century, compounding that small loss of economic growth can have a huge impact.

Another great college football resource

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a%26mfans.jpgThe Web continues to amaze with the depth and quality of the sites being generated. Check out this one analyzing the win-loss record of every BCS and mid-major college football team and conference in the U.S. What a great way to track trends among conferences and teams — or simply to keep up with your favorite team — throughout the season.

You don’t say?

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speeding%20ticket.gifThis NY Times article reports on more research that goes into the “who needs a research project to prove that?” category:

. . . the broader question ó whether police officers in some towns are motivated by fund-raising as well as safety when writing traffic tickets ó has been examined systematically by others. Michael D. Makowsky, a doctoral student in economics, and Thomas Stratmann, an economics professor, both at George Mason University, studied the issue in a recent paper, ìPolitical Economy at Any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?î
They examined every warning and citation written by police officers in all of Massachusetts, excluding Boston, during a two-month period in 2001 ó over 60,000 in all. Their conclusion wasnít shocking to an economist: money matters, even in traffic violations. They found a statistical link between a townís finances and the likelihood that its police officers would issue a speeding ticket. The details are a little sticky, but they show that tickets were issued more often in places that were short on cash, and that out-of-towners received tickets more often than drivers with local addresses.

2007 Weekly local football review

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UH%20Casey%20Keenum.jpgThe Labor Day weekend marks the beginning of the college football season and HCT’s weekly local football reviews, so here’s the first edition of the 2007 season:
Oregon 48 Houston 27

Well, you have to hand to the Coogs, they certainly don’t schedule only creampuffs for non-conference games and they keep things entertaining. After spotting Oregon a 14-0 first quarter lead, the Cougars closed to within 34-27 with 1:50 left in the third quarter. But then on the next play, the Ducks exploited a chronic weakness of the Cougars during the Art Briles era — a porous defense — for an 80 yard TD run for a 41-27 lead that took the wind out of Houston’s sails. The Cougars actually outgained the Ducks (538 yds to 468 yds), but Houston’s five turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles and blocked punt, three of which were inside the Oregon 20) more than made up for that offensive output. Despite the continuing defensive struggles, the Cougars appear to have found a good QB in redshirt freshman Casey Keenum and will have two weeks to regroup before taking on Tulane in New Orleans on September 15.

Texas Longhorns 21 Arkansas State 13

H’mm. Texas fans are rightfully concerned after watching the Horns fumble and stumble against Arkansas State. The Indians outpassed the Longhorns (272 to 223), outrushed them (125 to 117), tallied more first downs (26 to 23), punted fewer times (3 to 4), threw fewer interceptions (1 to 2), had a stronger kickoff return game (94 return yards to 73), and held the ball longer in time of possession (30:12 to 29:49). The Longhorns have been tabbed as 10 point favorites in their game against mid-major power TCU (1-0) next Saturday in Austin, but expect that line to move down a bit as the game approaches. Absent a substantially better effort against the Horned Frogs, the Horns could well lose that game.

Texas Aggies 38 Montana State 7

After spotting Montana State an early 7-0 lead, the Ags methodically hammered out the victory using their somewhat boring but effective strategy of emphasizing the rushing attack, throwing short passes and restricting turnovers. However, even the most optimistic Ags have to be concerned about an Ag defense that gave up over 400 yards to a Division I-AA team that replaced its head coach just three months ago and an offense that still does not appear to be able to execute a pass play of over 7 yards or so. The Aggies get a stiffer test at home next week against Fresno State (1-0), who enter the week as 17 point underdogs.

Nicholls State 16 Rice 14

Coming off the Todd Graham affair, this is not how the Owls wanted to kick off the David Bailiff era. The Rice Football Webletter commented as follows in this article entitled “Could It Get Any Worse Than This?”:

Perhaps the worst strategic decision made on the turf of Rice Stadium Saturday night came not from the Owl quarterback, not from the head coach ñ though both sources stunned the crowd of 11,800 with the length and breadth of their miscreancy during the course of this excruciating, five and one-half hour game.
Nope, the worst decision came from the tongue of Rice Athletic Director Chris del Conte, who, given the election of sending the teams home and playing the game over later in the season after the second of two, hour-long, lightning-induced weather delays ñ or electing to wait it out and get the game in ñ chose to stand fast and play ball.
The Rice Owls responded by imploding their own building here Saturday night as a, shall we say, less-than-imaginative offense yielded up five key turnovers en route to a 16-14 loss to an aroused, strutting and confident Nicholls State team.
The fancy banners which newly-adorn the stately, former-72,000-seat-edifice still stand on a muggy Sunday morning. But down like so many tons of concrete and structural steel have fallen the remains, not of a building, but of a rebuilding.

Ouch! The Owls attempt to rebound as 6 point underdogs next week in Waco against Baylor (0-1).

A continuing abuse of power

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James%20Brown%2090107.jpgEconomist James Buchanan won a Nobel Prize for his work on applying economics to explain how incentives impact the behavior of government officials. In short, Buchanan concluded that government officials are people who behave in the same selfish manner as most folks. For example, when dealing with the government’s awesome prosecutorial power, prosecutors often could care less about discretion and justice. Rather, they often use that power to advance their personal interests, to extort tribute from the private sector, to blackmail politicians into increasing prosecutorial resources and privileges, and to manipulate the media in their favor.
The foregoing seems to be an apt explanation of what continues to go on in the Enron-relates debacle known as the Nigerian Barge case:

A federal prosecutor wants a former Merrill Lynch & Co. executive to serve the entire prison term imposed for five Enron-related crimes even though three of those convictions were overturned by an appeals panel last year.
But lawyers for James Brown say the prosecutor is pushing to incarcerate their client for the remainder of his three-year, 10-month term because he has refused to plead guilty to another felony and possibly testify against two co-defendants.

Read about the entire tawdry affair. Brown’s perjury and obstruction of justice convictions were upheld in this Fifth Circuit decision that reversed the convictions against him and his co-defendants on the other three charges. However, Judge Harold DeMoss’ dissent lucidly explains just how flimsy the convictions on the perjury and obstruction charges are:

[The majority decision relies on] two types of evidence [to support the convictions of Brown on the perjury and obstruction charges]: (1) business negotiations preceding a deal ultimately reduced to a written agreement and (2) an after-the-fact oversimplification and shorthand description of the barge partnership investment by Merrill employees during the discussion and evaluation of a subsequent and entirely unrelated deal. Neither of these types of evidence should be used to support an inference of the falsity of Brownís testimony.

After what the prosecution has put Brown and his Merrill Lynch co-defendants through, the prosecution’s continued pursuit of this case borders on the barbaric. Here’s hoping that Judge Ewing Werlein rejects the prosecution’s continued pursuit of this Enron-related witch hunt in the same manner as he rejected the prosecution’s original over-the-top sentencing recommendations. Perhaps a few decision of that nature would induce some adult supervision to return to the Department of Justice.

The state of the Stros

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stros%20logo%20083107.jpgAs I’ve noted many times, the Chronicle’s coverage of the Stros is pretty pathetic overall. But markets are wonderful things, so the blogosphere has quickly developed into a far superior source of analysis about the Stros than the mainstream media. Although several blogs provide good information about the Stros (see the link list on the right), I have particularly enjoyed reading Lisa Gray’s analysis of the Stros over at The Astros Dugout, where Lisa blogs a post on every Stros game. Her insight is excellent and she writes in an engaging and clever manner.
Lisa is now branching out a bit and she recently posted this Hardball Times article on the state of the Stros. Despite the fact that I disagree with her on a few things (I think she is a bit harsh on Drayton McLane, who is the best owner that the Stros have ever had), Lisa’s article is the best I’ve seen on the mistakes that have been made in the Stros organization since the club’s 2005 World Series appearance. Check it out.
Bill James coined the “Law of Competitive Balance” to explain the trend that teams that win tend to slack off in the following year because team management doesn’t work as hard, don’t take risks to make the team better and think defensively. For example, Stros management reacted to the playoff appearances in 2004-05 by rationalizing that “if we won with Ausmus and Everett in those seasons, then why can’t we do it again this year.” Such complacency almost always is reflected in a poorer won-loss record, and the Stros gradual decline over the latter stages of the Biggio-Bagwell era is powerful evidence of the truth of the Law of Competitive Balance.