Markets and college sports

Before moving to Houston 33 years ago, I was born and raised in Iowa City, Iowa where my late father was a longtime University of Iowa Medical School faculty member.
As with most young folks who grow up in Iowa City, I became immersed in the rather remarkable culture of the University of Iowa Hawkeye sports programs, particularly the football and basketball programs. From 1960 through 1971, I attended virtually every Iowa home football and basketball game. Although I have not found much of a market for my services in this area, I remain one of the relatively few experts on those Iowa programs from that era.
What brings all this up is an interesting situation that has been playing out with regard to the Hawkeye basketball team over the past week. Pierre Pierce, who has started something like 82 or 84 games during his three season career at Iowa, was dismissed from the team because of a squabble with a girlfriend that has resulted in a police investigation. Pierce has not been charged with a crime, but the probable reason that Pierce was dismissed from the team rather than suspended pending the outcome of the investigation is that he had been effectively suspended for a season (i.e., red-shirted for a season) a couple of years ago after copping a plea bargain in connection with aggravated sexual assault charges that had been leveled against him.
In this post, Professor Ribstein — from Hawkeye arch-rival, the University of Illinois — makes the point that markets were already making the UI athletic administration’s job somewhat easier in dismissing Pierce:

It must be tough to drop such a player. A team’s success has huge financial implications for a big-time sports school. But it is, still, a school, and discipline of misconduct is an important part of the educational mission. So there’s a conflict of interest at all management levels (not just the coach), because of conflicting criteria for judging their performance. This sounds to me a lot like the corporate social responsibility debate — profits vs. society.
But I’ve argued that markets sort out these conflicts in the corporate area, and markets seem to be working here, as many at Iowa were expressing displeasure with the school’s failure to act against Pierce.

Professor Ribstein is correct in his analysis, although it is just part of the story. Attendance at Hawkeye basketball games — which has been a tough ticket in Iowa for over 50 years — has diminished to the lowest levels in decades this season, despite the fact that the Hawkeye team is a Top 25 team and, as Professor Ribstein mentions in his post, took number one ranked and undefeated Illinois into overtime last week before losing a close game. As with most markets, a variety of factors is contributing to the declining attendance at Hawkeye basketball games, but no one who knows anything about the Hawkeye culture doubts for a second that the primary reason for the decline is many Hawkeye fans’ disdain for Pierce and his primary supporter, Hawkeye basketball coach Steve Alford. The fascinating element to this is that the Hawkeye fans’ disdain may be as much based on Coach Alford’s limitations in evaluating Pierce’s playing ability as it is on Pierce’s apparent character flaws.
Coach Alford was hired at Iowa six years ago with the promise that he was going to take the traditionally very good Iowa basketball program to the “elite” level of college basketball programs. Unfortunately for Coach Alford, the program has actually gone in the other direction during his tenure, and the latest chapter in the Pierce saga is probably going to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in pushing the UI administration to buyout his contract and bring in a new coach.
Regardless of whether Coach Alford’s decision to support Pierce was based on alturistic “everyone is entitled to a second chance” principles or more grizzled “the team really needs him” principles, the market for Iowa basketball has firmly rejected Coach Alford’s decision. And interestingly, the market is at least partly rejecting Coach Alford’s competence as an evaluator of basketball talent because, as this excellent analysis points out, the reality is that Coach Alford overrated Pierce as a basketball player and Iowa’s team is likely not going to miss him much:

Pierre Pierce was clearly the focal point of Iowa’s offense through its first seven conference games. Since he scored in such an inefficient fashion, his absence in the offense probably won’t be the crisis some are making it out to be. The team going forward will be more balanced and made up of more efficient scorers, so they should be able to pick up the slack from the fallen star.

Stated simply, Pierce is like the .300 hitter in baseball whose on-base average is only .310 and whose slugging percentage is only .320. Because the non-experts in player evaluation believe that a .300 batting average equates with good hitting, the general public is deceived into thinking that the player is a good hitter despite the fact that the less well known but more important on base average and slugging percentage statistics reflect that the player is far below average. Pierce has a relatively high scoring average because he shoots frequently, but his poor shooting percentage and high turnover rate hurt the team more than his high scoring average contributes to it.
So, not only does the Pierce story intersect, as Professor Ribstein points out, the business of college sports and university corporate governance, it also points to the rather remarkable power of markets in effecting change in the entertainment business. The market for Hawkeye basketball recognizes that Coach Alford’s decision to make the overrated Pierce the focal point of the Hawkeye team reflects his limitations as a coach who will be able to fulfill the market’s expectation that the Iowa program remain at least the traditionally very good program that it has been over the past 50 years. That market is demanding a new (and hopefully better) coach, and it will likely get it.
Meanwhile, the market for Hawkeye football is quite strong as Hawkeye Coach Kirk Ferentz has just hauled in a top recruiting class on the heels of three straight major bowl appearances and Top Ten finishes. Interestingly, Coach Ferentz’s turnaround of the Hawkeye football program has been performed essentially by following the football model of the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, which emphasizes teamwork and making no player the focal point of the team. Call it the “low risk with high upside” model of building a football program.
Yes, markets truly are in everything.

Beal Bank makes a big bet on Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts

Look who has jumped into the debtor-in-possession lending business in connection with making a $36 million loan in the Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts chapter 11 case — Dallas-based Beal Bank and its poker-playin’ owner, Andrew Beal.
I guess that’s one way to increase one’s tab at the Trump Casinos.

Shell’s reserves continue to tumble

Royal Dutch/Shell Group announced another sharp cut in its energy reserve estimate yesterday even as high energy prices allowed the company to generate a fourth-quarter profit of $4.48 billion. Here is a series of posts over the past year on the reserve estimate mess and related problems that Shell has been confronting.
Shell’s announcement highlighted a problem that is facing most of the major exploration and production companies — i.e., the struggle to find new reserves to replace the oil and gas that the companies are currently producing.
Shell’s problems in that area are are worst than most. Yesterday, the company reduced reserves by an additional 1.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the fifth such cut over the past year.
This brings the cumulative reserves reduction to about one-third of total company reserves since Shell first disclosed early last year that it had drastically overstated its reserves numbers. Moreover, Shell has not filed its required 2004 year-end reserves numbers with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, so even further reductions are possible. Shell expects the five-year earnings impact of these cuts to total about $700 million, which is about 1% of the company’s profit over that period.
Despite that relatively small impact on profits, it is Shell’s dismal performance over the past year in replacing energy reserves that is placing the company in a precarious position within the industry. Reserves are the estimated bank of energy reserves that an oil and gas company has in the ground and energy companies typically attempt to replace at least 100% of the reserves they pump annually in order to provide markets with the confidence of future growth potential.
Shell is not even close to that standard. The company announced that it expected its 2004 reserve replacement ratio to be somewhere between 45% to 55%. Moreover, if one includes the effect of divestments and technical adjustments related to year-end oil pricing, the replacement rate plunges to a horrifying 15% to 25%.
Although not as drastic a problem as Shell’s, the entire oil and gas industry is having a difficult time replacing its energy reserves. Last week, Houston-based ConocoPhillips announced that it replaced just 60% to 65% of its reserves in 2004 and ChevronTexaco Corp. announced that its replacement rate will also be disappointing.

The NYSE model of failed corporate governance

The MSM is atwitter today with news about the release of a previously confidential report that details former New York Stock Exchange CEO Richard Grasso‘s compensation and perks as head of the NYSE and paints the Big Board’s directors as clueless as to how much compensation they were approving for Mr. Grasso during his eight years as Big Board CEO. New York attorney general and Governor-in-waiting Eliot Spitzer — who has sued Mr. Grasso and Wall Street financier and former NYSE compensation committee chairman Kenneth Langone over Mr. Grasso’s compensation issues — is quite pleased with the publicity, thank you.
Of course, the MSM is self-righteously indignant with the corpulent details of Mr. Grasso’s perks, including $193 million in annual pay, early pension payouts and estimated interest earned on those payouts from 1995 through 2003, as well as the $240,000-a-year secretary, two $130,000-a-year drivers, access to a private plane, and club memberships. Relying on compensation experts, the report — which was commissioned by the Big Board directors only after they had approved all this compensation for Mr. Grasso and Mr. Spitzer started snooping around — opines that the compensation represented about $100 million in “excessive” pay for Mr. Grasso.
Interestingly, the report notes that former NYSE director Carl McCall, the former New York state comptroller who headed the NYSE board’s compensation committee in 2003 when it approved Mr. Grasso’s most lucrative contract, signed the document without reading the damn thing. Despite this rather amazing disclosure and the fact that Mr. Spitzer has sued Mr. Langone (who was Mr. McCall’s predecessor as NYSE compensation chairman), Mr. Spitzer did not name Mr. McCall as a defendant in his lawsuit against Messrs. Grasso and Langone. I’m sure the fact that Mr. McCall, like Mr. Spitzer, is a prominent New York Democrat, while Mr. Langone is a prominent Republican, had nothing to do with that decision.
As expected in such misguided squabbles, both Mr. Spitzer and Messrs. Grasso and Lagone stated publicly yesterday that the report supports their respective positions in the lawsuit.
Alas, what is completely lost in the MSM treatment of Mr. Grasso’s pay and Mr. Spitzer’s Robin Hood lawsuit is the real issue, which is the failed corporate governance model of the NYSE. For insightful analysis of that issue, check out Professor Bainbridge here and Professor Ribstein here. Although arguably not be as entertaining as gossiping about how Mr. Grasso’s country club buddies lined his pockets or how Mr. Spitzer is going to be the next “Peoples’ Lawyer,” their recommendations have a much better chance of remedying the problem of oblivious directors and overpaid executives than a hundred Spitzer-type lawsuits would ever have.

Have we got a deal for you

The Wall Street Journal’s ($) Holman Jenkins, Jr. notes in his Business World column today on the big mergers announced over the past week (P&G-Gillette, SBC-AT&T, and MetLife-Travelers) that management is coming up with ever more creative pitches to use a company’s retained earnings for anything other than paying it to shareholders:

Procter & Gamble and Gillette spent as much effort on getting the incentives of key players right as they did on touting “synergies” and the like.
Take Gillette’s biggest shareholder and presumably the biggest beneficiary of P&G’s willingness to buy the company for an 18% premium: Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett committed a novel act when he made a video to be distributed on P&G’s Web site not merely praising the merger as a “dream deal” but vowing to increase Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in the combined companies.

Mr. Jenkins goes on to note that Gillette CEO James Kilts — who is making a cool $185 million on the merger — provided further enticement for P&G shareholders by promising not to sell any shares of the merged company for two years after the deal closes. And, if Messrs. Buffett and Kilts assurances are not enough, P&G management also promised that it would spend $18 to $22 billion over the next year and a half in buying back P&G shares.
So, what on earth is going on here? Mr. Jenkins thinks he knows:

[H]aving large amounts of cash around is also deemed a temptation to management to engage in undisciplined spending. The message here: If shareholders would kindly approve the deal, management will keep itself on a short leash in the future.
Alas, none of these gestures managed to stop Procter & Gamble’s stock price from falling off the table in the manner typical of companies announcing costly acquisitions.

Mr. Jenkins goes on to note that the market requiring incentives rather than empty promises to approve a deal is a step in the right direction in the business of selling mergers to the investing public. However, as with Hewlett-Packard’s acquisition of Compaq and Comcast’s failed bid for Disney, is the acquisition price for Gillete so high that, as Professor Ribstein might observe, it takes a near-delusional synergy theory — plus Mr. Buffett’s promotion of the deal — for P&G management to justify it?
By the way, Mr. Jenkins takes note of the unusual nature of Mr. Buffett’s involvement in selling the Gillete deal to P&G shareholders, and observes:

Mr. Buffett is famous for keeping his stock-buying intentions under wraps, knowing that his legion of fans might otherwise move the stock against him, so this was a first.

That said, we wonder what Pandora’s Box Mr. Buffett has opened. The role of big shareholders is to ride herd on management, not to peddle the goods to shareholders of acquiring companies as ally and agent of the acquiring company’s management. Having put himself in the position of selling the deal to P&G’s investors, is Mr. Buffett now obliged to warn them in the future if he intends to dump the stock?

Indeed, in addition to P&G shareholders, perhaps Mr. Buffett should also call Eliot Spitzer if he plans on dumping any his stock involved in this deal anytime soon.
Update: In commenting on Mr. Jenkins article, Professor Ribstein’s notes that the deals may be a positive sign that the takeover market is combining with the trend toward more productive distribution policies to produce real corporate governance reform, and then adds:

It’s worth noting that none of this has anything to do with Sarbox.

Rumbo

This NY Times article examines one of the most closely watched experiments in the publishing industry.
Rumbo (pronounced “ROOM-boh”) has started four Spanish-language daily newspapers in Texas in the past year, starting in San Antonio before going to Houston, Austin and the Rio Grande Valley. Here is an earlier Houston Press story on Rumbo de Houston’s entry into the local newspaper market.
According to most demographers, Hispanics will become a majority in Texas by 2030 or so and are already the largest ethnic group in several of the state’s largest cities. Edward Schumacher Matos is a former Wall Street Journal editor who founded Rumbo last year with Jonathan Friedland, The Journal’s former Los Angeles bureau chief. Their business plan is to have Rumbo profitable by late 2007 or early 2008. Their bet is that the state’s growing Hispanic population is ready to support a sophisticated daily newspaper in Spanish that mixes coverage of local news and sports with commentary and dispatches from Latin America.
The Hispanic market already supports fast-growing Spanish-language television and radio industries, but Rumbo’s Texas venture is clearly the biggest gamble yet that has been placed on the Hispanic demand for daily news in Spanish. Rumbo’s combined circulation remains small (just under 100,000 a day), but the venture has already generated a market reaction in each of the markets Rumbo entered in recent months. The English language newspaper in each of those markets has reacted to Rumbo by creating or buying newspapers to compete with Rumbo’s tabloids.
As an aside, I am going to be on a panel with Carlos Puig, managing editor of RUMBO de Houston, on February 19 at the Houston Bar Association’s annual Law & the Media Seminar that will be discussing ways in which the media can maintain its independence in the face of legal and economic threats to it.

Disneywar

First it was the battle to fight off the Comcast bid.
Then, it was the trial of the corporate case of the decade.
Now, it’s the book — Disneywar: The Battle for the Magic Kingdom (Simon & Schuster; 2005) by James B. Stewart, the former Pulitizer Prize winning Wall Street Journal reporter and the author of Den of Thieves, which chronicled the insider trading scandals of the 1980’s. According to this NY Times article, Mr. Stewart’s new book is not going to be particularly complimentary of Disney CEO, Michael D. Eisner.
Regardless of one’s opinion of Mr. Eisner’s performance in running Disney from a business standpoint, everyone must concede that he does have a knack for keeping the company in the news.
Alas, yet another epitaph that few CEO’s envision: “Kept company in the news.”

Big deals brewing

Following on this post from last week, the boards of San Antonio-based SBC Communications Inc. and AT&T Corp. approved a mostly stock deal under which SBC will acquire AT&T for roughly $16 billion.
SBC’s board approved the transaction Sunday evening, while AT&T’s board approved it just before 1 a.m. Monday. The acquisition remains subject to approval by AT&T’s shareholders and regulatory authorities, and is expected to close by the first half of 2006.
The deal would create the nation’s largest telecommunications company. The merger will end AT&T’s 130-year remarkable run as an independent company, which began with the invention of the telephone.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal ($)is reporting this morning that MetLife Inc. is close to striking a deal for Citigroup Inc.’s Travelers Life & Annuity Co. in a deal that would probably be valued at around $12 billion.
Consolidation within the life insurance industry has been predicted for some time, but the predicted consolidation has not taken place as quickly as many have predicted. If the MetLife-Travelers’ deal makes, that could trigger the predicted round of consolidation in the industry. The theory of the MetLife-Travelers’ deal is that insurance companies can generate better profit margins by serving larger numbers of customers with essentially the same back-office systems and only incrementally larger sales forces.
Both these deals signal that the markets are coming back to the type of big-scale merger deals that had largely disappeared from the business landscape over the past three years.

More clear thinking on reforming corporate governance

Following on a thread that involved earlier posts here and here, Professor Ribstein expands in this post on his proposal for reforming corporate governance:

My solution to the problems of corporate governance is to put pressure on managers to distribute excess cash by increasing owner distribution and liquidation rights. Ironically, it is the corporate form’s elimination of these partnership-type rights that Margaret Blair argues made modern business possible. I dispute that proposition here. In that article I also argue that thick sophisticated markets have made the giant corporation no longer as important as it once was.
You might well ask, if this is such a good idea, why haven?t we seen more of it ? e.g., partnership type provisions in corporate charters that mandate distributions? Why not more publicly traded LLCs?
My explanation is that the corporate tax and the ?double? tax imposed on corporate distributions reduce owners’ incentives to insist on distributions even if requiring distributions would efficiently reduce managerial agency costs, and therefore be value-increasing in the absence of this tax. So I propose eliminating the bias favoring retained earnings inherent in the our current tax system. Firms would then be freer to move toward more efficient governance forms.

Professor Ribstein’s focus on the detrimental effects of the double taxation of corporate profits raises an interesting incongruity of the related political issue.
The anti-business crowd rails against removal of the double taxation of corporate profits as an unfair concession to the rich capitalist roaders. However, the retention of corporate profits contributes to corporate blunders (such as HP’s acquisition of Compaq) and Enron-type scandals, which the anti-business forces attempt to remedy through bigger government — that is, shareholder lawsuits in the civil justice system, criminalization of questionable corporate actions in the criminal justice system, and greater governmental control in the regulatory system (i.e., Sarbox).
Thus, the anti-business crowd’s opposition to removal of the double taxation on corporate profits has the unintended consequence of promoting bigger businesses and bigger business blunders that, in turn, require bigger government to control. I’m not sure where the anti-business forces want to go with all of this, but my sense is that “bigger in everything” is not the destination that they have in mind.
Also, check out Professor Bainbridge’s additional cogent thoughts in this post on corporate governance issues, and also Professor Ribstein’s follow up post. Likewise, Professor Bainbridge passes along this site where you can download the papers presented at a conference over the weekend that addressed these and other corporate governance issues. These are great resources.

What? You mean a board member has to work?

In this earlier post on the corporate case of the decade, it was noted that the outcome of the Disney-Ovitz trial may provide yet another reason for competent businesspersons to avoid serving as independent directors on boards in a business climate that already makes it increasingly difficult to find qualified board members. My own anecdotal experience is that businesspersons are avoiding board membership in droves.
This timely Wall Street Journal ($) article confirms my experience as business leaders converging on Davos, Switzerland this week for the World Economic Forum tell the Journal that they are increasingly saying “no thanks” to serving as independent members on outside boards of public companies:

Such anecdotal evidence is borne out by some hard statistics. In 1997, the chief executives of S&P 500 companies served on average on two outside boards, . . . Today, that number has fallen to an average of less than one, or 0.9%, outside board seats, . . . Until recently, about one in four companies had policies limiting the number of boards their CEOs served on, . . . Today, more than half of companies have such policies, . . .

One of the examples that the article uses for explaining the reasons for declining independent board membership is the experience of Michael D. Capellas, the former Compaq Computer Co. CEO who served on the Dynegy, Inc. board while at the helm of Compaq:

Mr. Capellas’s experience on the Dynegy board is a telling example of the changing dynamic of being a board member. While a director from May 2001 to June 2002, he recalls “we met four times a year [and] far less preparation was required. In fact, I would read the material the night before.”
Today, Mr. Capellas says, “if you are going to be on a board, you have to attend many more board meetings” and the reading material is “much more voluminous.” For example, the Dynegy board meets every other month, not counting about two other meetings via telephone, according to the company. What’s more, Dynegy’s current board members receive annual performance reviews by other board members.
Meanwhile, Mr. Capellas’s compensation as a Dynegy board member paled when compared to his salary as Compaq’s CEO. As a Dynergy director in 2001, he received an annual retainer of $30,000, plus $1,500 for each board meeting and $1,000 for each committee meeting. The same year, he was paid $3.8 million as Compaq’s CEO.
And the risks were increasing. In September 2002, Houston-based Dynegy, among the energy companies caught up in the corporate scandals of recent years, paid $3 million to settle civil charges brought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over irregular energy trades and some financial transactions that had been used to burnish the company’s financial results.
Though no directors were charged by the SEC in the September action, some current and former Dynegy directors have been named in related class-action lawsuits. Mr. Capellas, who quit the company’s board three months before the SEC settlement, isn’t a defendant in the class-action lawsuits. Since then, Dynegy has almost completely revamped its board, with 10 of its 12 directors joining over the last three years.
Mr. Capellas says he believes he and other Dynegy directors lived up to their responsibilities as board members. “I don’t believe there was any lack of preparation,” he says. “There were four board meetings scheduled but the board actually met many, many times. It’s just that to do the bread-and-butter stuff today, you have a lot more work to do.”

It is a sad commmentary on the state of American corporate governance when the main reason for declining board membership is that directors are concerned that they are not going to have the protection of the business judgment rule even after expending an inordinate amount of their time on the board matters.