Ben Stein’s blinders

ben_stein.jpgThis earlier post noted that the NY Times financial columnist Ben Stein has some rather odd notions about private equity buyouts. Amidst criticizing rich folks for spending their money in a different way than Stein would if he had their money, Stein in this column continues to strap his blinders on closely regarding private equity-backed, management-led buyouts of publicly-owned companies:

“I saw an article about the chairman of Herbalife leading a private equity firmís offer to take the company private. He must be trying to underpay his shareholders for it ó otherwise thereís no built-in profit for him. Of course, heís a fiduciary for those same shareholders, obliged to put their interests ahead of his in every situation. Never mind. This is about money.”

Well, yes, it is about money and the private equity buyers could be wrong in their bet. Stein ignores that Herbalife’s stock price could go down below the price that the chairman and his private equity partners are willing to pay for it, which means that they would absorb the loss rather than the Herbalife public shareholders. Isn’t the more mature analysis here the assessment of the relative risk that Herbalife’s stock price will rise above or below the price that the private equity buyers are willing to pay for it?
But Stein isn’t finished with his blather:

Then I read an article about the head of Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, Isadore Sharp, taking that company private. His family owns the supervoting shares that control the Four Seasons, and Mr. Sharp says he wants to simplify succession issues with his children. (Donít we all?) Several people have been quoted as saying heís underpaying for the company. Why does he have to do the deal at all? The potential for conflicts of interest is simply overwhelming.
Four Seasons declined to comment when I called to ask, but I assume Mr. Sharp wants to buy the company on the cheap. Every buyer does. The shareholders for whom Mr. Sharp is a fiduciary want ó and by all legal history, deserve ó the highest possible price. Again, why do the deal at all? If he controls the votes of the company, canít he work out succession issues by parceling out those super shares in his will or a living will? Something does not smell quite right here. At least, not to me.
And, hey, lookie here whoís investing along with Mr. Sharp. Why, itís the richest man in the world, Bill Gates. See, heís not rich enough now. He has to get into this ethically dodgy deal to get even richer. Very nice. I guess heíll use that money to do ethical things.

Let’s assume for a moment that the risk is greater that the Four Seasons stock price will fall below the price that Mr. Sharp is willing to pay for it than it is that stock price will rise above it. However, Mr. Sharp disagrees with that risk assessment and is willing to put his money up to back up his belief. Hasn’t Mr. Sharp done precisely the ethical thing for Four Seasons shareholders? I don’t know if the foregoing risk analysis is right or wrong, but it occurs to me that it is at least as likely a scenario as the “ethically dodgy” deal that Stein suggests.
If not for Gretchen Morgenson, I would be amazed that the Times editors would allow Stein’s shallow analysis to pass as a business column in the paper.

Big Weekend Deals

Big%20Deals.jpgO.K., so the offer of private-equity firms Texas Pacific Group and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. to acquire Dallas-based utility TXU Corp for about $45 billion was the big deal that was buzzing around financial circles over the weekend. As the NY Times’ Landon Thomas reports, it’s always fun when one of the original barbarians arrives at the gate.
But also catching my eye was that Houston-based Marble Slab Creamery — a longtime success story in the premium ice-cream parlor wars — announced on Friday that it was selling out New York-based NexCen Brands Inc. for $16 million. As noted earlier here, Marble Slab is well-positioned to make a run at becoming the Starbucks of premium ice-cream and NexCen — a brand acquisition and management company that is focused on assembling a portfolio of companies in the consumer branded products and franchise industries — has the capital to pull it off. Bully for the Hankamer family, the owners of Marble Slab.

What’s that point again, Ms. Morgenson?

dominoes.jpgThe NY Times’ Gretchen Morgenson’s column ($) this past Sunday is entitled “Will Other Mortgage Dominoes Fall?”, in which Morgenson explores the current downturn in the subprime mortgage market.
As a result of the increasing default rate in subprime mortgages, Morgenson observes that the mortgage-backed securities that many institutional investors purchased may be riskier than they seemed at the time that the investors bought them. Consequently, she notes that those securities may not be worth as much as the investors want them to be worth and that they may sell them. If that happens, Morgenson rightly points out that the market for new mortgage-backed securities may get tougher and there may not be as much cheap mortgage money around for homebuyers, particularly low-income ones.
What I’m trying to figure out is what’s wrong with any of that? Isn’t that precisely the way markets work? Isn’t it good that many low-income or high-credit risk folks have been able to enjoy the benefits of home ownership? Yes, it’s too bad for those low-income folks who weren’t able to take advantage of the cheap subprime mortagages, but isn’t it good that investment vehicles that securitized subprime mortgages with pools of higher grade mortgages shifted part of the risk of those low-grade mortgages to investors who can better absorb the risk? And isn’t it more likely that the downturn in subprime mortgages will be less severe as a result of the hedging of risk that occurs through such securitization?
In other words, what’s Morgenson’s point in the article? Perhaps Larry Ribstein knows?

The fading allure of the “Superstar Cities”

night%20Houston%20skyline.jpgUrban economics expert Joel Kotkin (previous posts here) reports on the myth of the “superstar cities” in this WSJ ($) article and he sums up the bullish prospects of cities such as Houston in comparison to supposed superstar cities such as New York, San Francisco and Boston:

Economic and demographic trends suggest that the future of American urbanism lies not in the elite cities but in younger, more affordable and less self-regarding places.
Over the past 15 years, it has been opportunistic newcomers — Houston, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Riverside — that have created the most new jobs and gained the most net domestic migration. In contrast there has been virtually negligible long-term net growth in jobs or positive domestic migration to places like New York, Los Angeles, Boston or the San Francisco Bay Area.
What as much as anything distinguishes elite places — what Wharton real-estate professor Joe Gyourko calls “the superstar cities” — are their absurdly high real-estate prices. New York, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles have long been more expensive than, say, Dallas, Houston or Phoenix — but in recent years the difference in price, he calculates, has increased beyond all reason. San Francisco prices since 1950, for example, have grown at twice the national rate for the 50 largest metropolitan areas.[. . .]
This perhaps explains why the largest companies — with the notable exception of Silicon Valley — have continued to move toward the more opportunistic cities. New York and its environs, for example, had 140 such firms in 1960; in 2006 the number had dropped to less than half that, some of those running with only skeleton top management. Houston, in contrast, had only one Fortune 500 company in 1960; today it is home to over 20. Houston companies tend to staff heavily locally; this is one reason the city was able to replace New York and other high-cost locales as the nation’s unchallenged energy capital. Another example of this trend is Charlotte’s rise as the nation’s second-ranked banking center in terms of assets, surpassing San Francisco, Chicago and Los Angeles, indeed all superstar cities except New York.

Houston’s own urban policy wonk, Tory Gattis, has more of the Kotkin article and provides his own series of posts on why young cities such as Houston are well-positioned to take advantage of opportunities that are not rich enough for the superstar cities. Not a bad position to be in, folks.

Lamar Muse, RIP

Muse%20Air.jpgFormer Houstonian M. Lamar Muse, one of the founders of Southwest Airlines and a pioneer of airline deregulation, died earlier this week in Dallas. He was 86 at the time of death.
Muse was legendary in the airline industry for taking over Southwest when the airline had no planes, piles of startup debt, and nominal liquidity. He parleyed that into three 737s from Boeing so that Southwest could begin flying the planes between Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, taking advantage of close-in and underused Hobby Airport in Houston and Love Field in Dallas. Inasmuch as Southwest was flying entirely intrastate, the airline was lightly regulated in comparison to the legacy airlines of the time and, thus, slashed fares to capture the Texas market. When I moved to Texas in the early 1970’s, I could buy a ticket to Dallas or San Antonio for about $30, $50 round trip. And, yes, those orange hot pants on the flight attendants were not bad, either.
Muse left Southwest in the late 1970’s over a dispute about the rate of expansion and he was never able to regain the mojo that he displayed at Southwest. In 1982, he started Muse Air, which was sort of a luxury version of Southwest, but the timing was bad as the oil and gas business in Texas was just beginning to enter a long and deep tailspin at the time. After never generating a profit, Muse sold out to Southwest in 1985, which renamed the airline TranStar. By 1987, Southwest had had enough of the airline’s losses and shut it down.
Muse was a true character to the end, reportedly participating in internet chat rooms regarding airlines up until recently. Probably his most endearing business legacy is his championing of a company stock-based, profit-sharing plan for Southwest employees, who didn’t have pensions at the time. That plan eventually turned many longtime Southwest employees into millionaires as Southwest’s value grew over the years. A fine legacy for any businessperson, indeed.

EGL deal hits turbulence

EGL.pngLooks as if Jim Crane’s proposed private equity-backed buyout of EGL is on the rocks already. That news probably makes Ben Stein happy, but what about EGL shareholders?
Crane commented that he will resubmit another bid, but the market certainly didn’t receive his first with gusto. After an initial run-up in price upon the announcement of the proposed buyout, the stock is now trading at close to its 52-week low. Interestingly, Crane’s failed offer — something that folks such as Stein would make illegal — may end up inducing more bidders to get into play for EGL than otherwise would be the case, thus increasing EGL’s value for shareholders. Stay tuned.

Regulating private equity buyouts

moneyrolls.jpgMatthew Bishop over at The Economist.com makes the salient point that the concern over private equity buyouts is getting a bit hysterical:

THE backlash against the private-equity boom is becoming a tad hysterical. Take yesterday’s Financial Times (of February 5th), in which John Gapper issues a ìwake up callî about what he says may be the next big financial scandal, ìmanagement buy-outs of public companies by executives backed by private-equity firms.î
What is the problem, exactly? According to Mr Gapper: ìTo state the obvious, any chief executive who plans to buy the company that he or she leads faces a huge conflict of interest with its shareholders. The job of an executive is to make a company as valuable as possible so that its shares fetch the highest possible price. But any director who bids for a company is eager to pay as little as possible so that he or she can reap the maximum reward in the future.î
Still, Mr Gapper concedes that not every management buyout is ìinherently flawedî. That makes him a moderate compared with another financial writer, Ben Stein, who wants them to be made illegal.
As Mr Stein claimed not long ago in the New York Times, ìmanagement buyouts are great for management. But by every standard I can see, they are yet another sad sign of how our corporate trustees have lost their moral compass. The time for them to stop is long overdue. If the stockholders have hired you and pay your wage to manage their assets, your job is to do that for themónot to buy them out at fire-sale prices and turn around and make billions that rightfully belong to them. The management buyout is a sad and infuriating avatar of a decadent age.î

Whoa, Nellie, says Bishop:

Mr Gapper and Mr Stein talk as though the mere existence of a potential conflict of interest will lead directly to wrongdoing. But one of the great strengths of capitalism is its ability to develop efficient mechanisms to manage conflicts of interest. When a boss considers selling his firm to private equity, the check on him is particularly simple: the shareholders of his firm must approve any sale. In a few recent cases, such as a bid for CableVision, shareholders have considered the offer inadequate and blocked the sale. That is evidence, not of a brewing scandal, but of market forces at work.

Indeed. My anecdotal experience is that a good sign to hold on to one’s pocketbook firmly is when someone tells you that it is better to have fewer bidders competing to purchase something. Indeed, my sense is that a management-led, private equity-financed play for a public company is usually just as likely to spur competing offers for the company as it is an attempt to lowball the public company’s shareholders. When the folks who know the most about a company’s business show that kind of confidence in the value of the company, that sends a strong signal to the market that more value can be made. Such confidence tends to be contagious.

Institutionalized fanaticism

signing%20day.jpgIf your friends or co-workers who follow college football closely are acting a bit stressed out today, then it’s quite likely that the source of their anxiety is a 17 or 18 year old who they have never met.
Yes, today is that day of the absurd dubbed “National Signing Day” when we are deluged with the rather odd spectacle of grown men fawning over high school football players to induce them to come take advantage of their university’s resort facilities rather than their competition’s resort facilities. And, oh yeah, if they can earn a few “tips” from well-heeled alums while enjoying those resort facilities, then that’s alright, too.
Indeed, this NY Times article already suggests that the University of Illinois’ inexplicably strong recruiting class this year may be the result of cheating. With the proliferation of the blogosphere over the past couple of years, a host of blogs follow the recruiting wars closely and often with keen wit. The following are a few of the interesting posts on this year’s recruiting season that I’ve stumbled across:

The Wizard of Odds explains why all of this competition over the quality of recruiting classes is largely meaningless;
The Sunday Morning QB examines the strange system in which all of this has evolved;
The House that Rock Built explores the ripple effect of recruiting decisions;
Every Day Should Be a Saturday reveals how recruiting foretold Rex Grossman’s mediocre Super Bowl performance (just kidding);
A widget that displays a map reflecting where a school’s recruits are coming from; and
The College Football Resource page has more information than you should ever want to know about this year’s top recruits and where they are going.

Meanwhile, as university presidents continue to dither over this fundamentally flawed system of regulating rents, this post from a couple of years ago suggests that a better system is readily available so long as the colleges forsake being the NFL’s free minor league system, a position with which Malcolm Gladwell agrees. As noted earlier here, big-time college football as presently structured is hopelessly corrupt, but it’s a pretty darn entertaining form of corruption. Adopting a structure much closer to college baseball would likely minimize the corruptive elements of college football while not affecting the entertainment value of the sport much. But it’s going to take leadership and courage from the top of the universities to promote and implement such a reform.
What are the chances of such leadership emerging? Probably about the same as Rice knocking off Texas next season in Austin.

But do they have WiFi?

coffee_ov1_small.jpgIt was a tough day for yuppies yesterday as this Consumer Reports analysis concluded that good ol’ fashioned McDonald’s coffee was superior to Starbuck’s in taste testing. But both McDonald’s and Starbucks are going to have a hard time competing with the new coffee franchise described in this LA Times article:

On a quick break from his job as a trash hauler, Rob Chapman was in the mood for some coffee. So he pulled his truck into the Sweet Spot Cafe, a drive-through espresso stand on busy Aurora Avenue here in the Seattle suburbs.
“Do you want a Wet Dream or the Sexual Mix today, honey?” asked barista Edie Smith, dressed in a tight-fitting yellow blouse that did a less than fully effective job of covering her cleavage. She leaned down in the window, perhaps all the closer to hear his order. He chose the first option: a coffee with white chocolate, milk and caramel sauce.
It is possible, of course, that Chapman and the dozens of other drive-by customers at the parking lot stand one recent morning stopped by only for the coffee.
But, as Chapman dryly observed, “I do enjoy coming here more than Starbucks.”
In a way, it is perhaps stunning that it took so long for entrepreneurs here to figure out that coffee, the fabled Seattle obsession, mixes very well with sex, the fabled human obsession.
But apparently it does, to judge from the growing number of steamy espresso stands that have popped up around the region in the last year or so.
At the Sweet Spot here in Shoreline, the Natte Latte in Port Orchard and the Bikini Espresso in Renton, not to mention the multi-stand Cowgirls Espresso, the term “hot coffee” has clearly taken on a whole new meaning.

It’s safe to say that it’s only a matter of time before this type of coffee shop catches on in Houston.

Will Dell Be Saved by the Apple Rule?

It’s been anything but a smooth ride for Austin-based Dell, Inc. since founder Micheal Dell announced that he was stepping aside as CEO almost three years ago.

The saga came full circle this week as the company announced that Dell was replacing his replacement as CEO, Kevin Rollins.

Unfortunately for Dell investors, it’s far from clear that Mr. Dell’s return as CEO will have the same effect on Dell as the return of Steve Jobs had on Apple, Inc. Dell has several serious systemic problems with its business model that will be difficult and expensive to overhaul. Was Jobs prophetic last January?

Meanwhile, a class action shareholder’s lawsuit this week hammered Dell, Mr. Dell and others with allegations of potential criminal wrongdoing. The lawsuit alleges that Dell’s profits were inflated by hundreds of millions of dollars in quarterly rebates from Intel that Dell did not properly account for and disclose (sound familiar?).

The lawsuit contends that Dell was receiving as much as $1 billion a year in what are characterized as “secret and likely illegal” kickbacks by Intel to ensure that Dell would use no other chip supplier.

Of course, as these stories go, all of this was supposedly going on as Dell executives sold billions of dollars in Dell shares. Dell has already disclosed that the U.S. Attorney’s office in New York has undertaken an investigation of its financial reporting, as has the SEC.

Intel paid these “e-Cap payments” — standing for “exception to corporate average pricing” — to induce Dell not to do business with Intel competitor, AMD. Dell spread out the approximately $1 billion a year received in such payments over the four quarters to reduce the company’s cost of goods sold.

The lawsuit alleges that Dell became so dependent upon these payments — knowledge of which was apparently limited to about 15 senior people at Dell — that Intel made the payments near the end of the Dell’s quarters so that the funds would have a “direct, material impact” on Dell’s reported operating and profit margins.

And, oh yes, the company’s stock, which was trading in late 2005 at more than $40 a share, has fallen to $23.52 as of the close of Nasdaq Stock Market trading yesterday.

Gosh, haven’t we seen this syndrome before? Can Dell avoid it’s own Enronesque experience by offering up a few sacrificial lambs?

And will those sacrificial lambs include Mr. Dell? Or will he be exempted from criminal liability by what Larry Ribstein has characterized as “the Apple Rule,” which was not around to save another Texas business visionary who created wealth and jobs on par with Mr. Dell?

Stay tuned.

Update: Don’t miss Larry Ribstein’s comparison of the Apple Rule with the Enron Rule.