The always perceptive Professor Ribstein over at Ideablog asks this question: Given the volatility or oil prices and the adverse impact of high prices on the business of running an airline, why don’t airlines hedge their fuel costs?
The answer: Airlines generally are not, and never have been, particularly well-managed.
After a particularly unfulfilling experience in investing in airline stocks several years ago, Warren Buffett studied the industry and concluded, if one tabulates all of the airline industry’s finances since the day the Wright Brothers in 1903, one will discover that, cumulatively, there has not been a single penny of profit. Mr. Buffett has also suggested that, in hindsight, shooting down the Wright Brothers on that beach would have been a reasonable financial, if not moral, move.
However, one airline — Dallas-based Southwest Airlines — is and always has been well-managed. And guess who has been hedging its fuel purchases? Read about it here.
Update to this post here.
Category Archives: Business – General
Southwest – Klein Bank merger
This Chronicle article reports on the announcement of the merger of two Houston area independent banks — Southwest Bank of Texas and Klein Bank. Southwest will be the acquiring entity under the $165 million deal. The merged company will become the second-largest independent bank in Texas and the fourth-largest bank in the Houston area, behind J.P. Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. The combined companies will have $6.6 billion in total assets, $4.2 billion in loans, $5.3 billion in deposits and a loan limit of $77 million.
Oscar Wyatt makes big Enron asset play
This NY Times article reports on Enron Corp.’s announcement today that, subject to Bankruptcy Court approval, it has agreed to sell for $1.8 billion its most valuable remaining pipeline assets to a company run by colorful Houston billionaire Oscar Wyatt, Jr.
Enron’s pipeline and power assets have never been part of the company’s troubled businesses that led it into bankruptcy in late 2001. Enron will sell CrossCountry Energy Corp. — which owns outright or has stakes in three North American natural-gas pipelines — to Wyatt’s company, NuCoastal LLC. As a part of the deal, NuCoastal would also assume $430 million in debt from the 2,600-mile Transwestern Pipeline in the deal.
Mr. Wyatt, who is 79 years old, has long been one of Houston’s most outspoken businessmen. He founded Coastal Corp. and turned it into a natural gas giant before retiring as its chairman in 1997. El Paso Corp. bought Coastal in 2001 for $22.6 billion, and Mr. Wyatt’s public (and caustic) displeasure with El Paso’s management generated an unsuccessful proxy battle to oust El Paso’s board last year. Another example of Mr. Wyatt’s outspoken nature was his public opposition to Operation Desert Storm in the first Iraq War in 1991, which was led by fellow Houstonian President George H.W. Bush.
Mr. Wyatt’s company may still be outbid for CrossCountry Energy because bankruptcy courts generally award the assets to the highest bidder until the deal is approved. If that occurs, Mr. Wyatt’s company will likely receive a generous “stalking horse” fee, which is usually a percentage of the ultimate purchase price.
Russian oil and gas majors
This NY Times article provides a good analysis of the the difficulty that Russia’s largest oil and gas companies are having in translating their huge reserves into stature among the world’s major oil and gas companies in the marketplace for investors. The article starts by noting the huge potential in the Russian oil and gas business:
By rights, Russia should have a world-class energy company. It has 6 percent of the world’s oil reserves and pumps 10 percent of daily global production, rivaling Saudi Arabia. And its economy has rebounded as oil-consuming nations east and west turn increasingly to Russia for energy supplies.
However, that potential has not yet translated into success. The article uses the example of Lukoil, one of the two Russian majors:
But the very things that make Lukoil work in Russia are holding it back in the rest of the world, analysts and industry experts say: Lukoil remains a very Russian company, with all that has come to imply, from its complex structure and opaque finances to its inefficiency and dependence on the good will of the Kremlin.
In short, the lack of business management development under the old Soviet Union’s economy continues to bedevil Lukoil in comparison to other major oil and gas companies:
Though publicly traded as a single entity, Lukoil is structured more like a decentralized web of fiefs, and some investors say it is often unclear how profits flow to the center of the group or whether its published accounts fully capture what is going on.
“Some of the units within Lukoil, like Permneft, are, in management terms, very autonomous,” said Ian Hague, co-manager of Firebird, a hedge fund specializing in Russian investments. “The amount of oil they’re producing, as compared to net income, seems to show that large sums – hundreds of millions of dollars – are going places not clear to investors.”
“Investors don’t like things that are difficult to explain,” Mr. Hague said. “If Lukoil is running an expensive ship, meaning more of their money goes to administrative costs than others, investors view that as a problem.”
Stocks of American majors like Exxon Mobil and ChevronTexaco are now trading at price-to-earnings multiples in the mid-teens, based on estimated earnings over the next year. But Lukoil’s multiple is just 7.9, in the middle of the Russian oil pack.
Now a decade and a half after the fall of the Soviet Union, is it fair to ask whether Lukoil and Yukos (the other Russian oil and gas major) will be able to achieve stature equal to the world’s oil and gas majors in the marketplace for investors without the importation of Western oil and gas management expertise?
Continental responds to fuel cost increase
This NY Times article reports on Houston-based Continental Airlines‘ plan to respond to the recent spike in fuel prices that are straining profits of all airlines. Fuel is the second-biggest expense for airlines, after labor costs, and typically totals about 10% of operating costs.
Continental raised fares across the board late yesterday and said it will have to consider furloughs and wage cuts if jet-fuel prices do not decline from their current record levels. Continental raised ticket prices $10 each way for flights of as much as 1,000 miles, and $20 each way for longer trips. However, under heavy pressure from discount airlines, major carriers such as Continental have seen previous attempts to boost ticket prices fail when competitors decline to match. Even if this current increase sticks, Continental said it would offset only 15% of its higher fuel tab.
At current prices for oil, Continental faces an additional $700 million in annual operating expense over what it originally had planned for 2004. As a result, Continental CEO Gordon Bethune said he expects Continental to suffer a significant loss for 2004.
The benefits of higher oil prices
During a political season, you will not hear much about the benefits of higher oil prices. But this Wall Street Journal’s ($) Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. Business World column dissects the issue and concludes that increased oil prices are not all bad. First, Mr. Jenkins addresses the current price spike and the reasons behind it:
The futures market puts oil for delivery next summer at $35, well under today’s $41. Seers are not hard pressed to explain why. On April 24, three small boats operated by suicide commandos hit Iraq’s southern oil terminal and a few days later kamikaze gunmen shot up a Saudi petrochemical plant. Osama bin Laden has a plan: Get control of Saudi Arabia through subversion and put himself in charge of its oil, foundation of a new Islamic empire. That is, Saudi survival can’t be taken for granted.
Traders say five to ten bucks of today’s price is due to terrorism fears. Notice also that the biggest speculator out there is the U.S. government, which has been frantically topping off the Strategic Petroleum Reserve ever since November 2001, yelps from private energy buyers notwithstanding.
Then, Mr. Jenkins focuses on the real issue, which is not a shortage of oil:
Note that the issue is not whether the world is running out of oil. The debate concerns a theoretical milestone called Hubbert’s peak, after which output from any given field slows and becomes more costly to produce long before the last drop is lifted. Half of Saudi Arabia’s oil comes from the giant and venerable Ghawar field; much of the remainder comes from four other aging giants that may be at or near their Hubbert’s peak. . .
How much oil is left is far less significant than how quickly and cheaply it can be extracted, especially from a relative handful of large, cheap-to-produce fields that have carried industrial man for a century. Some believe that getting much above today’s 80 million barrels a day would be horrendously costly if not impossible. If they’re correct, two billion Chinese and Indians, right now beginning to trade their bicycles for Toyotas, would be stuck trying to achieve modernity by outbidding the rest of us for a share of the world’s current rate of oil production rather than benefiting from additional output.
All this has some petroleum engineers predicting resource wars, famine and pestilence, preventable only by a massive effort of central planning to shift the world to a less hydrocarbon-intensive lifestyle. If so, we might as well pass around the cyanide caplets right now. Such global planning is certainly beyond the wisdom and power of politicians to manage.
Which brings Mr. Jenkins to his central theme — i.e., the benefits of higher oil prices:
Yet the unwillingness of doomsayers to credit price signals with eliciting changed consumption behavior, new technology, a thousand substitutions and other adaptive responses is more than a little peculiar here. Oil companies have held back from investing in deep-water searches, Canadian oil sands and Venezuelan bitumen for fear oil prices will plummet to $15. Shareholders have kept Big Oil on a short leash, tolerating only low-risk investment projects that will generate cash flow in a small number of years. Won’t this change now if higher prices seem a permanent feature of the landscape?
Motorists might or might not be willing to swallow price hikes, but what about other industries that use petroleum as feedstock? They’re price sensitive and would be expected to adapt in ways that aren’t all easy to foresee from today’s vantage.
Scare talk is a hardy perennial in the global petroleum business, a passport to fun and attention from the media. Industrial society is frequently painted as a fragile, vulnerable machine, yet all the evidence suggests the opposite: It’s a machine that has grown more resilient and adaptable the more complex and interdependent the world becomes. In short, as long as the price mechanism is allowed to work, mankind seems likely to muddle through. Hallelujah, then, for higher oil prices.
Amen.
On a related note, although not quite as insightful as Mr. Jenkins’ piece, this NY Times editorial strikes the correct theme that short term spikes in energy prices is not a cause for overreaction.
Flyin’ taxi
This Scott McCartney Wall Street Journal ($) article reports that business travelers will have a new alternative to flying commercial airlines or buying their own jet as early as next year — an “air taxi.”
Using a new generation of small jets that are currently in flight testing, several entrepreneurs are trying to launch “air taxi” services. The goal is to let corporate travelers bypass crowded airports and fly into smaller, local airports, at half of the current cost of chartering a jet.
An outfit called IFly Air Taxi Inc. is floating the concept, and the owners of IFly are an eclectic mix of airline types — Donald C. Burr, the founder of People Express Airlines back in the 1980s, his son, Cameron, and Mr. Burr’s old rival, Robert L. Crandall, the former CEO of American Airlines that was instrumental in running Mr. Burr’s People Express out of business.
One of the reasons that the air taxi concept is drawing interest is the new jet technology — “micro jets” — that will be used:
One reason for optimism that now is the right time for air taxis: The arrival of a new generation of four-passenger “micro jets” that can operate more cheaply than conventional jets. These aircraft typically are much lighter than conventional private jets, and are powered by a new generation of small, fuel-efficient engines. None of the planes are in service yet. Manufacturers are accepting advance orders, which so far are being placed by a mixture of private individuals and hopeful air-taxi operators.
iFly is expected to announce an order for Adam Aircraft jets soon. The Adam A700, which at $2 million is half of the price of the cheapest Cessna Citation jet right now, began flight tests in July 2003.
And how does an air taxi trip stack up to the current conventional modes of business air travel?:
The new planes have the potential to revolutionize transportation. Currently, chartering private jets is extremely expensive, costing $7,000 or more for a 500-mile hop, round-trip. Fractional ownership (where you buy a “share” of an aircraft that entitles you to use it periodically) is no bargain either. Corporate-owned jets, while sometimes economical for shuttling groups of executives, are often viewed as overly expensive perks.
Air-taxi service would be different, in theory at least. Mr. Burr says he can provide rides for $3 to $4 a mile, on average — which works out to be a bit more expensive than most first-class tickets. A trip to Cleveland from Teterboro, N.J., for example, might cost $1,000 to $1,400 on average. By comparison, an unrestricted first class ticket on Continental Airlines from Newark, N.J., to Cleveland costs $1,338.
Of course, there are still a host of unanswered questions about the air taxi concept, such as how best to manage a fleet of such small jets to ensure maximum usage. However, Mr. McCartney sums up what the concept does make clear, which is really the beauty of American capitalism:
What seems clear is that transportation in the future will take many forms, and that our choices in the future may well be better than the ones we have today.
Internal or criminal investigations?
This NY Times article reports on the Justice Department’s aggressive use of obstruction of justice laws in its investigation of accounting irregulaties at the giant software company, Computer Associates.
John F. Savarese, a former federal prosecutor who also represented Martha Stewart before her trial this year, led a team from Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, the prominent New York law firm that the company hired to investigate the charges in an internal probe. Savarese and Wachtell turned over information regarding the probe to the Justice Department. On April 9, three former executives of Computer Associates pleaded guilty to obstruction of justice charges that were not tied to statements told to federal investigators, but to statements made to Wachtell during the company’s internal investigation.
The executives were never accused of lying directly to federal investigators or a grand jury. Their guilty pleas were based on the theory that, in lying to Wachtell, they had in effect misled federal officials because Wachtell passed their lies on to the Justice Department.
As the story relates, the Justice Department’s use of the company’s law firm represents a serious extension of Justice’s use of obstruction of justice laws. Usually, obstruction charges cover behavior such as destroying documents, pressuring witnesses not to testify, or lying to federal officials. Inasmuch as an employee can be fired for asserting the privilege against self-incrimination in an internal company probe, this new Justice Department policy may actually hinder such internal probes. Lower level company employees will now be less willing to discuss matters with the company’s investigators, which will make it more difficult to implicate higher level company executives in the alleged wrongdoing.
This is yet another example of the unhealthy criminalization of business that is occurring under the Bush Administration’s Justice Department. And the Republican Party is supposed to be business-friendly?
SBC president resigns
This Chronicle article reports on the resignation of SBC Communications Inc. President William Daley.
San Antonio-based SBC appointed 51-year-old Forrest Miller, a long-time telecom industry veteran, to succeed Mr. Daley as head of the company’s public affairs and corporate planning functions. However, SBC announced that it is not planning to appoint a new president.
A former Commerce Secretary under President Clinton, chairman of Al Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign, and the son of the late Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley, Mr. Daley, 55, had been hired in 2001 to advance SBC’s regulatory agenda and was part of a campaign to improve the company’s strained relations with Midwest regulators.
Mr. Daley’s resignation comes as SBC and other local phone giants are in the middle of a volatile period of political activity over the future of access to local phone systems. SBC officials have been trying to free themselves from federal regulations that force them to lease access to their networks to rivals such as AT&T Corp. and MCI Inc. at artificially low rates. Competitors of SBC and other regional telecoms say the federal rules are fair and provide the only method of ensuring competition in local phone markets.
SBC and the other Bells suffered a serious regulatory defeat late last year when the Federal Communications Commission decided to leave wholesale leasing regulations essentially unchanged. Mr. Daley had led SBC’s regulatory lobbying effort in regard to that FCC matter.
What is Richard Rainwater up to?
One of the more interesting Texas billionaires is Ft. Worth’s Richard Rainwater. He cut his teeth in the big-time financial world by overseeing the tremendous increase in value of the Bass Brothers’ from 1970 through the mid-1980’s, including what turned out to be a very lucrative bet on the Disney Co. during that period. Rainwater then struck out on his own investing heavily in energy, real estate investment trusts, and health care and, as he put it several years ago, “I’m just a retired guy who made a couple billion by being in the right place at the right time.”
Maybe so, but Rainwater’s contrarian investment strategy has always been interesting to follow. Today, this Wall Street Journal ($) article reports on Rainwater’s latest investment — buying a 7.5% stake in battered telecommunications giant Global Crossing Ltd. in recent weeks as its share price plunged in response to new accounting troubles and possible delisting from Nasdaq.
News of Mr. Rainwater’s investment in Global Crossing along sent the company’s shares up $1.30 to $10.70 yesterday afternoon. The stock had lost almost 40% of its value in less than the past month after management announced that it might need to restate financial results for the past two years and that Nasdaq may delist the company.
Global Crossing was one the biggest stars of the telecom boom and its founders were big contributors to President Clinton’s second campaign. But the company slid into chapter 11 in 2002 amid the market downturn and questions about its accounting. It emerged from Chapter 11 in December 2003 with a cleaned up balance sheet, only to announce in late April that poor internal controls had led management to underestimate access costs by between $50 to &80 million for gaining access to other telecom networks. That led the company’s auditor — Grant Thornton LLP — to withdraw its audits and left the company in violation of the conditions for listing on Nasdaq. Inasmuch as such errors (particularly just after getting out of bankruptcy) do not exactly generate confidence in management, Global Crossing’s ability to obtain new financing is subject to serious question in the investor marketplace.
Nevertheless, that’s when Rainwater went to work, according to the WSJ article:
As some investors fled the stock, Mr. Rainwater turned a relatively modest investment into a large stake, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Mexican magnate Carlos Slim Helu, already a major shareholder, added to his stake and now owns 9.9% of the company. Mr. Rainwater declined to comment on his purchases. The company’s other major stakeholder, Singapore Technologies Telemedia Pte. Ltd., has a 61.5% stake.
Mr. Rainwater owns three million shares, according to the filings. His holdings represent 13.6% of the company’s publicly traded shares. Between March 17 and May 11, Mr. Rainwater spent $24.4 million on Global Crossing stock, with the purchases accelerating in the past two weeks as the share price fell into the single digits.
The telecommunications industry has been one of the most perilous investments over the past decade. For a variety of reasons, the huge run up in value in most telecommunications companies during the late 1990’s has been followed by a plunge in value that appeared to have no bottom. Rainwater’s bet is the first positive sign for a battered industry in a very long time.