Mark Prior — the best young pitcher in baseball today — beat the one of the best pitchers of all-time on Monday night as the Cubs easily beat the Stros at the Juice Box, 7-2.
Still rehabbing from an injury, Prior dominated the Stros over five innings, giving up five hits, no runs and striking out eight. The Stros were able to eke out of couple of meaningless runs in the bottom of the ninth after Prior was long gone.
Meanwhile, the Cubs knocked the Rocket around pretty hard, pounding out 10 hits and five runs in Clemens’ five frames. Todd Walker was a one man wrecking crew for the Cubbies, cranking out two homers and a triple among his four hits. Alas, the loss was Clemens’ first of his magical season.
The biggest news of the rather listless evening for the Stros was Jimy Williams‘ move of the second best hitter in baseball — Lance Berkman — from fifth to third in the batting order (Bags was moved to fifth in the order). Although this should have been done weeks ago, the fact that the notoriously stubborn Williams did it at all is tantamount to a breakthrough in diplomatic relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
The Stros really need Wade Miller to step up in the Tuesday night game against Carlos Zambrano, who is one of the best pitchers in the league this season. Tim Redding takes on Greg Maddux in the Wednesday game, and Roy O goes against Glendon Rusch on Thursday.

In their most improbable win of the season, the Stros scored a run in five different innings to beat the Brew Crew in the final game of the Stros marathon two week, 12 game road trip, 5-4.
Playing without Lance Berkman (at his grandfather’s funeral) and Richard Hidalgo (stiff neck) and facing traditional Astro-killer Ben Sheets, the Stros used solo yaks from JK and Viz and clutch pitching performances from Pete Munro, Miceli, Lidge, and Dotel to secure the win. To make things particularly interesting, Lidge and Dotel each loaded the bases in the seventh and eighth before retiring the side in each inning (Lidge struck out four in the seventh!).
The weekly analysis of the Stros’ hitting and pitching performance reflects that the Stros’ hitting has gone south — the Stros fell from first to fourth in National League RCAA (runs created against average,explained here) during this past week — while the pitching has actually improve considerably — the Stros went from ninth to a tie for fourth in National League RSAA (runs saved against average, explained here).
Here are the Stros’ RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Lance Berkman 39
Jeff Bagwell 10
Craig Biggio 7
Jeff Kent 7
Mike Lamb 7
Eric Bruntlett 1
Jason Lane -2
Orlando Palmeiro -2
Raul Chavez -4
Morgan Ensberg -4
Adam Everett -6
Richard Hidalgo -6
Jose Vizcaino -7
Brad Ausmus -10
Even though he cooled off over the past week, Berkman still remains the second best hitter in the National League behind Bonds. After that, the Stros hitters are continuing to struggle, as Bags is trending downward (his RCAA is about ninth among NL first basemen) and Kent is cooling off, too. Of the remaining players, Lane is showing signs of being a productive hitter (he had two more doubles today that are not included in these stats), but Ensberg and Hidalgo are still probably going to have to heat up if the Stros are going to have a chance for the post-season. Note that Everett has regressed to a negative 6 RCAA reflecting that he has no business batting second in the batting order, despite Jimy Williams‘ absurd compulsion with having Everett sacrifice at every opportunity.
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching appears to be coming around despite the first two games of the just concluded Milwaukee series. Here are the Stros’ RSAA numbers:
Roger Clemens 19
Brad Lidge 6
Octavio Dotel 5
Roy Oswalt 4
Andy Pettitte 4
Mike Gallo 3
Dan Miceli 3
Wade Miller 2
Pete Munro 1
Kirk Bullinger 0
Chad Harville -1
Brandon Backe -3
Ricky Stone -3
Jared Fernandez -6
Tim Redding -7
Brandon Duckworth -9
With Miller‘s strong performance in Seattle, all of the Stros’ starters are now above-average RSAA except for Redding, who is increasingly looking hopeless in terms of achieving any degree of reasonable consistency this season. The Stros smartly exiled Duckworth to New Orleans and added Bullinger, who at least might be worthwhile for an inning or two once in awhile. Other than Gallo (who appears to be coming back to earth) Redding, and Clemens (how could he improve?), all of the Stros pitchers appear to be reasonable prospects for improving their RSAA over the remainder of the season.
In looking at the NL Central, the statistics continue to indicate that the Reds‘ slide of the past week will continue because of their lack of pitching. The Cubs are currently the best balanced team, with the Stros and the Cards trailing in that order. All three of those teams are reasonably well-balanced on an aggregate basis.
The Stros finished the road trip with a decent 6-6 slate and return home with a 33-28 record, good for third in the NL Central behind the Cards and Reds.The Stros open up an 11 game homestand in the Juice Box on Monday night as the Rocket takes on the Cubs’ Mark Prior in what should be a classic pitching duel. The Cubs are followed into the Juice Box by the Angels and the Bucs.

Roy O chose a bad time to have his worst outing in two years as the Brewers jumped on him for six hits and five runs in the fifth inning in coming back to beat the Stros on Saturday night at Miller Park, 7-4.
Oswalt allowed six earned runs — the most in an appearance since July 16, 2002 against Pittsburgh — and couldn’t make it out of the fifth inning for the first time in 2004. In 4 2/3 innings, the right-hander surrendered nine hits, one walk, two hit batsmen and struck out four. It was only the third time Oswalt had permitted six earned runs in his career.
Meanwhile, the Stros eked out only six hits, the only one of consequence being Jason Lane‘s three run double. They were the seldom-used Lane’s first RBI’s of the season.
To make matters worse (if that is possible), Lance Berkman flew back to Houston on Saturday afternoon to attend the funeral of his grandfather, did not play in Saturday night’s game, and will not play in Sunday afternoon’s game. Berkman is expected to rejoin the team in Houston on Monday. Richard Hidalgo also sat out Saturday’s game with a sore neck, which it probably the product of having his head snap back around looking at all the pitches that he is missing while batting over the past month and a half.
The Stros might as well mail it in on Sunday as journeyman Pete Munro makes the start in place of Andy Pettitte as the sacrificial lamb for Astro-killer Ben Sheets. Expect the Stros to limp back to the Juice Box in fourth place in the NL Central to begin their 11 game homestand on Monday against the Cubbies.

The Brewers broke open a close game with 3 spots in the sixth and seventh innings and rolled to a 9-3 plastering of the Stros in the first game of their weekend series at Miller Park in Milwaukee. Redding, Gallo, Harville, and Stone all pitched rather ineffectively as inconsistency continues to plague the Stros pitchers not named Clemens or Oswalt.
Roy O goes for the Stros in the Saturday game, and Pete Munro will pitch the Sunday game. The Stros return to the Juice Box for a three gamer with the Cubbies on Monday that begins an 11 game homestand.

Wade Miller followed the Rocket‘s fine performance the previous evening and threw six innings of shut out ball as the Stros shut out the rather hapless Mariners for the second straight night, 3-0. Miceli, Lidge and Dotel again mowed down the M’s in the last three innings to preserve the zip out.
You just never know what you are going to get from the inconsistent Miller. In his three previous starts, Miller had given up over a run an inning, which is not the way to establish a stellar earned run average. On the other hand, he is capable of being dominant as he was on Wednesday night when he gave up only four singles and a double and struck out four. A big key for Miller is walks — he is one of the National League leaders in that category and when he controls them (he had only two on Wednesday), he has a much better chance of success.
Ex-Stros farmhand Freddy Garcia (he came over to Seattle in the Randy Johnson trade five years ago — has it really been that long?) cuffed the Stros for most of the night, but Bags, Berkman and Hidalgo led an uprising in the third that generated all of the Stros’ runs.
Despite his contribution in this game, Hidalgo — who has been scruffing ever since the beginning of May and has not hit a yak since April 13th — continues to have buzzard’s luck. In this game, he whacked a shot over the fence in deep center only to have the M’s Randy Winn make one of the best catches of the season by extending his arm well over the fence and snagging the ball. Hidalgo couldn’t believe it.
Meanwhile, the Reds have started their inevitable descent from first place (their pitching generally stinks) as they lost three straight in Oakland this week. The Cards, whose pitching has been the best in the division so far this season, now share first place with the Reds and the Stros are a game and a half back.
The Stros try to get in a golf game today in Milwaukee before beginning a weekend series on Friday with the Brew Crew, who are uncharacteristically playing reasonbly well so far this season. Tim Redding, Roy O, and whoever is replacing Andy Pettitte in the rotation this time around (probably Pete Munro) will hurl this series. The Stros finally return to the Juice Box on Monday for an 11 game homestand against the Cubbies, the Angels, and the Pirates.
Finally, it turns out that the Stros still hold at least one option under Brandon Duckworth‘s contract, as he was mercifully optioned to AAA New Orleans yesterday. Journeyman reliever Kirk Bullinger replaces Duckworth on the 25 man roster.

The Rocket won his ninth game without a loss this season as the Stros made a Morgan Ensberg sac fly in the seventh hold up for a 1-0 win over the Mariners.
As usual, Clemens was brilliant and battled like a classic gamer. He did not have his best control as he walked five in six and two thirds innings, but he gave up only three hits and struck out seven. For the second straight night, the Stros languid hitters made another pedestrian Seattle pitcher — this time Joel Pineiro — look like a stopper as they scratched out only three hits. Astros manager Jimy Williams contributed to that offensive inefficiency by playing ineffectual Jose Vizcaino for the third straight game.
By the way, Lidge and Dotel made things interesting in the last two innings before nailing this one down. In the eighth, Lidge gave up a lead off triple when Bidg misplayed a fly ball (he was not given an error, but he really botched the play). Lidge proceeded to bail his teammate out by getting the next three batters on a pop up and two whiffs. Then, in the ninth, Dotel appeared to be dominant and got two quick outs before giving up back to back singles to put runners at first and second. Certainly fearing the prospect of having to face Clemens in the clubhouse after blowing another save, Dotel struck out the next batter to secure the victory.
Underachieving Wade Miller pitches for the Stros in the Wednesday night game against Mariner and former Astro farm hand, Freddy Garcia. The Stros get an off day on Thursday as they move on to Milwaukee for a weekend series with the Brew Crew on the last leg of this marathon two week, 12 game roadie.

The Stros opened their first interleague series of the season in particularly unimpressive style as they made Seattle Mariner rookie Clint Nageotte look like the Rocket in losing to the Mariners on Monday evening, 5-0.
Brandon Duckworth was the worst he has been in an awful season for him, exiting after giving up three runs and getting only one out in the first inning. Given Duckworth’s incompetence, one can only imagine what it takes to get released from the Stros’ generally underperforming pitching staff this season. Probably the only thing that has saved Duckworth is that the Stros’ AAA club does not really have a good replacement for him at this stage of the season. Newly-acquired Pete Munro relieved Duckworth and at least battled over the next five innings, giving up the other two runs.
Meanwhile, the Stros’ hitters took a powder against Nageotte and his reliever, Julio Mateo, slapping out seven impotent singles and a double. At least the Stros’ Propoganda Department will be happy as Jeff Kent‘s single extended his hitting streak to 22.
Even Jimy Williams continued his dubious managerial moves. Playing in Seattle allows Williams to use the designated hitter in the Stros’ lineup. So, does he use one of the team’s best hitters to date, Mike Lamb? Or underutilized potential slugger, Jason Lane? No, Jimy uses one of “his guys,” Jose Vizcaino, who continues to be — along with another one of Jimy’s “guys”, Brad Ausmus — one of the most unproductive hitters in baseball.
Finally, consistent with the sense of doom around the Stros right now, Andy Pettitte will miss at least another start and probably more as a result of his recent “forearm” (psst – it’s really his elbow) injury.
The Stros are now 10-15 in their last 25 games, three and a half games behind the Reds in the NL Central, and sinking slowly into oblivion. This team needs a serious jolt, and perhaps Clemens can give it to them this evening as he takes the hill against the Mariners’ forgettable Joel Pineiro (negative 14 RSAA).

Roy O pitched six strong innings and Miceli, Lidge and Dotel shut the Cards down in the final three innings as the Stros escaped St. Louis with a 3-2 victory. The Stros are now off to Seattle for a three game interleague series with the Mariners, who are a surprisingly horrendous 20-34 this season. Brandon Gopherballworth takes the hill in what may be his last start for the Stros if he does not show any improvement over his recent stints.
The Stros continue to muddle along at 30-25, three and a half games behind the Reds in the NL Central race. The most recent runs created and runs saved against average statistics are out, and they continue to reflect that the Stros have potential, but are underperforming generally. Here are the Stros runs created against average (RCAA) numbers through Saturday’s games (RCAA is explained in this earlier post):
Lance Berkman 39
Jeff Bagwell 13
Jeff Kent 9
Craig Biggio 8
Mike Lamb 8
Eric Bruntlett 1
Adam Everett -1
Jason Lane -1
Orlando Palmeiro -2
Raul Chavez -3
Richard Hidalgo -3
Morgan Ensberg -4
Jose Vizcaino -6
Brad Ausmus -9
The Stros’ net 49 RCAA leads the National League, but, as noted in last week’s post, that number is somewhat deceptive — Berkman, Bags, Kent, Bidg and Lamb have an aggregate 77 RCAA while the rest of the squad is hitting an atrocious -29 RCAA. And despite Vizcaino’s three hits in today’s game, Jimy Williams‘ liberal use of Viz and Ausmus is hurting the Stros — he should be minimizing their play rather than using them to the extent he does. Ensberg and Hidalgo are the best bets to increase their RCAA dramatically, and Williams continues to yank both of them in and out of the lineup like a couple of yo-yo’s. The following sets forth the Stros’ starters OPS (on base average plus slugging percentage) and their rank among other National League teams’ starting players. Also inlcuded are the top ten National League players in OPS):
1 Barry Bonds 1.466
2 Lance Berkman 1.170
3 Albert Pujols 1.088
4 Mike Lowell 1.063
5 Craig Wilson 1.062
6 Sean Casey 1.056
7 Scott Rolen 1.045
8 Adam Dunn 1.035
9 Jim Thome 1.019
10 J.D. Drew 1.010
24 Jeff Kent .907
30 Jeff Bagwell .881
38 Craig Biggio .846
56 Richard Hidalgo .753
66 Adam Everett .724
83 Brad Ausmus .660
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching is performing far below expectations. The following are the most recent runs saved against average (RSAA) through Saturday’s games (RSAA is explained in this earlier post):
Roger Clemens 14
Roy Oswalt 5
Mike Gallo 4
Octavio Dotel 3
Brad Lidge 3
Andy Pettitte 3
Dan Miceli 2
Pete Munro 0
Chad Harville -1
Brandon Backe -3
Wade Miller -3
Ricky Stone -4
Jared Fernandez -6
Brandon Duckworth -7
Tim Redding -8
Clemens’ RSAA remains one of the NL leaders, Roy O’s is decent and likely to go up, and the key relievers’ RSAA are above average and also likely to increase. However, starters Miller and Redding’s RSAA stink, Duckworth is a gopher ball waiting to happen, and the staff’s meager 2 total RSAA is barely above average. Consequently, the Stros pitching staff — thought to be the team’s strength coming into the season — is a mediocre ninth in total RSAA in the National League and is far behind the staffs of their NL Central rivals Cards (34) and Cubs (21).
So, it looks like the Stros’ success or failure this season is going to revolve around whether Hidalgo, Ensberg, Miller, and Redding can improve their generally desultory performances to date. None of the other underperforming Stros’ players appear likely to improve their performance over the remainder of the season. Inasmuch as Bidg and Lamb will likely regress as the season wears on, improvement from these players is essential if the Stros are going to remain in contention in a tough NL Central race against the Reds, Cards, and the Cubs.
When the Reds’ hitting cools off even slightly, look for them to fall out of first place in the NL Central quickly — the Reds’ hot hitting is covering up a poor pitching staff. The Cards and Cubs are currently the most likely candidates to takeover first place when the Reds fall, but the Stros could climb back into contender status if they get better contributions from the players named above.

The Redbirds teed off on Tim Redding, Mike Gallo, Chad Harville, and Ricky Stone as they rolled to a 10-4 victory at Busch Stadium on Saturday night.
Lance Berkman — whose Bondsian hitting over the past month has been largely wasted because the rest of the Stros’ hitters have slid into mediocrity — was the Stros’ lone bright spot as he rebounded from his hitless Friday night game to drive in all four Stros runs.
The season is only a third old and things can change over the course of a long season, but — at this point — the Stros don’t look particularly competitive against this Cardinal team. Since May 12, the Stros are a rather pathetic 8-14 and beyond Berkman, Clemens, and Oswalt, no player has performed at a consistently above-average level over those 22 games.
Roy O is the Stros’ last hope to salvage a game in St. Louis on Sunday afternoon. Jeff Suppan starts for the Cards.

The Stros looked listless after a golf day in St. Louis as the Cards parlayed a four run fifth inning into a 5-3 win at Busch Stadium.
Wade Miller continued to look unimpressive as he walks far too many batters to be effective over the long term. Kent and Lamb had solo yaks, but Berkman‘s 33 game on base streak came to an end. To make matters worse for Berkman, his alma mater was upset 4-3 by Texas Southern in the NCAA Regional Baseball Tournament.
Tim Redding attempts to get the Stros back on track on Saturday night against the Cards’ Jason Marquis.