Roy O pitched six strong innings and Miceli, Lidge and Dotel shut the Cards down in the final three innings as the Stros escaped St. Louis with a 3-2 victory. The Stros are now off to Seattle for a three game interleague series with the Mariners, who are a surprisingly horrendous 20-34 this season. Brandon Gopherballworth takes the hill in what may be his last start for the Stros if he does not show any improvement over his recent stints.
The Stros continue to muddle along at 30-25, three and a half games behind the Reds in the NL Central race. The most recent runs created and runs saved against average statistics are out, and they continue to reflect that the Stros have potential, but are underperforming generally. Here are the Stros runs created against average (RCAA) numbers through Saturday’s games (RCAA is explained in this earlier post):
Lance Berkman 39
Jeff Bagwell 13
Jeff Kent 9
Craig Biggio 8
Mike Lamb 8
Eric Bruntlett 1
Adam Everett -1
Jason Lane -1
Orlando Palmeiro -2
Raul Chavez -3
Richard Hidalgo -3
Morgan Ensberg -4
Jose Vizcaino -6
Brad Ausmus -9
The Stros’ net 49 RCAA leads the National League, but, as noted in last week’s post, that number is somewhat deceptive — Berkman, Bags, Kent, Bidg and Lamb have an aggregate 77 RCAA while the rest of the squad is hitting an atrocious -29 RCAA. And despite Vizcaino’s three hits in today’s game, Jimy Williams‘ liberal use of Viz and Ausmus is hurting the Stros — he should be minimizing their play rather than using them to the extent he does. Ensberg and Hidalgo are the best bets to increase their RCAA dramatically, and Williams continues to yank both of them in and out of the lineup like a couple of yo-yo’s. The following sets forth the Stros’ starters OPS (on base average plus slugging percentage) and their rank among other National League teams’ starting players. Also inlcuded are the top ten National League players in OPS):
1 Barry Bonds 1.466
2 Lance Berkman 1.170
3 Albert Pujols 1.088
4 Mike Lowell 1.063
5 Craig Wilson 1.062
6 Sean Casey 1.056
7 Scott Rolen 1.045
8 Adam Dunn 1.035
9 Jim Thome 1.019
10 J.D. Drew 1.010
24 Jeff Kent .907
30 Jeff Bagwell .881
38 Craig Biggio .846
56 Richard Hidalgo .753
66 Adam Everett .724
83 Brad Ausmus .660
Meanwhile, the Stros pitching is performing far below expectations. The following are the most recent runs saved against average (RSAA) through Saturday’s games (RSAA is explained in this earlier post):
Roger Clemens 14
Roy Oswalt 5
Mike Gallo 4
Octavio Dotel 3
Brad Lidge 3
Andy Pettitte 3
Dan Miceli 2
Pete Munro 0
Chad Harville -1
Brandon Backe -3
Wade Miller -3
Ricky Stone -4
Jared Fernandez -6
Brandon Duckworth -7
Tim Redding -8
Clemens’ RSAA remains one of the NL leaders, Roy O’s is decent and likely to go up, and the key relievers’ RSAA are above average and also likely to increase. However, starters Miller and Redding’s RSAA stink, Duckworth is a gopher ball waiting to happen, and the staff’s meager 2 total RSAA is barely above average. Consequently, the Stros pitching staff — thought to be the team’s strength coming into the season — is a mediocre ninth in total RSAA in the National League and is far behind the staffs of their NL Central rivals Cards (34) and Cubs (21).
So, it looks like the Stros’ success or failure this season is going to revolve around whether Hidalgo, Ensberg, Miller, and Redding can improve their generally desultory performances to date. None of the other underperforming Stros’ players appear likely to improve their performance over the remainder of the season. Inasmuch as Bidg and Lamb will likely regress as the season wears on, improvement from these players is essential if the Stros are going to remain in contention in a tough NL Central race against the Reds, Cards, and the Cubs.
When the Reds’ hitting cools off even slightly, look for them to fall out of first place in the NL Central quickly — the Reds’ hot hitting is covering up a poor pitching staff. The Cards and Cubs are currently the most likely candidates to takeover first place when the Reds fall, but the Stros could climb back into contender status if they get better contributions from the players named above.