The much anticipated pitching matchup between the Stros’ Roy O and the Cubs’ Kerry Wood deteriorated into an old-fashioned beanball contest as the Cubs pounded the Stros 11-6 on Sunday afternoon at the Juice Box.
The shenanigans began in the second when Wood beaned Jason Lane after Mike Lamb had nailed a long solo yak to open the scoring. Oswalt reciprocated the following inning by nailing Michael Barrett squarely in the back after Aramis Ramirez had taken a bit too long in rounding the bases after cranking a two out, three run tater on an 0-2 pitch in the third. Oswalt was ejected immediately, but Wood stayed around until the fifth (despite nailing Beltran in the next inning on a slider in the dirt, which the the umps let that pass) when he nailed JK. At that point, Wood was gone along with Cubs manager Dusty Baker.
That was about the only excitement in this game, which was out of reach the way the Stros hit (or, more accurately, don’t hit) after Ramirez’s blast gae them a 5-1 lead. The Cubs are simply a better overall team than the Stros, particularly in the area in which the Stros struggle — hitting the ball hard.
Our periodic review of the Stros hitters’ runs created against average (“RCAA”) and the Stros pitchers’ runs saved against average (“RSAA” and RCAA explained here) accurately reflects the Stros’ current status in the National League — about average, but not close to being a contender for a playoff spot. Here are the Stros hitters’ RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Lance Berkman 45
Carlos Beltran 12
Mike Lamb 6
Jeff Bagwell 5
Craig Biggio 5
Eric Bruntlett 2
Chris Burke -1
Jeff Kent -1
Jason Lane -2
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Richard Hidalgo -9
Jose Vizcaino -9
Morgan Ensberg -12
Adam Everett -12
Raul Chavez -14
Brad Ausmus -23
The Stros are 10th out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA, and have generated 11 fewer runs than an average National League team would have generated so far this season.
Berkman, and Beltran continue to be the only Stros having excellent seasons hitting the ball (Beltran’s RCAA is 29 when his Kansas City RCAA is added to his Stros RCAA). Bidg‘s performance is in free fall as his RCAA over the past month has been a negative 8 and his performance is now equal to the disappointing output of Bags. Those two players combined RCAA is about one half their output from last season. Combine that drop in performance with the precipitous drops in RCAA from Ensberg, Kent, and Hidalgo from their output of last season and you have a presciption for a ballclub that struggles to score runs.
Meanwhile, the injuries to the Stros’ pitchers are starting to take a toll on the Stros’ pitching staff’s overall performance. After topping out two weeks ago in 3rd among the 16 National League pitching staffs in RSAA, the Stros’ pitching staff has fallen back to fifth, but still have given up 34 runs less than an average NL pitching staff. Here are the individual RSAA of each Stros pitcher:
Roger Clemens 26
Roy Oswalt 19
Brad Lidge 18
Wade Miller 10
Octavio Dotel 5
Darren Oliver 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Dan Miceli 3
Brandon Backe 1
Kirk Bullinger 0
Mike Gallo -2
David Weathers -2
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Pete Munro -3
Chad Qualls -3
Ricky Stone -3
Carlos Hernandez -4
Jared Fernandez -6
Chad Harville -8
Brandon Duckworth -9
Tim Redding -14
Clemens, Oswalt and Lidge continue to have outstanding seasons, but the remainder of the healthy Stros’ pitchers are led by Miceli‘s barely above-average performance. Consequently, unless Clemens or Oswalt goes late into a game and hands the ball to Miceli and Lidge, or the Stros enjoy an unexpected performance such as the one Backe provided on Saturday night, the Stros are going to lose more games than they win because of their overall combination of below average pitching after the big three and far below average hitting after Berkman and Beltran.
Interestingly, as predicted, the Stros have settled into third place in the National League Central and I suspect that they will stay there for the remainder of the season unless the Stros’ players simply pack it in. However, the Stros have no realistic shot at the Wildcard Playoff berth because their available personnel simply is unlikely to generate enough improvement over the remaining 40 games to compete with the Giants, Cubs, and Padres for that spot.
The Rocket takes the hill on Monday in the opener of a three game series against the Phils. After the Wednesday game of that series, the Stros travel to Chicago for a four game set at Wrigley on Thursday through Sunday and then to Cincy to pad their hitting statistics against the Reds’ horrifying pitching staff.

Professional football has clearly overtaken Major League Baseball as the most popular sport in American society. However, Saturday night’s Stros-Cubs game is an example of why the appeal of Major League Baseball will endure through the ages regardless of its place in the pecking order of popular sports popularity.
Let’s set the stage. The Stros’ Brandon Backe is an obscure 26 year old from Galveston who began his professional baseball career as an outfielder in the Devil Ray organization. After converting to a pitcher, Backe was rushed through the thin Devil Ray minor league system as a relief pitcher and was never given adequate time to develop as a pitcher.
After coming over to the Stros in the Geoff Blum trade before this season, Backe toiled ineffectively in the Stros’ bullpen for a short time during the first part of the season. However, the Stros’ management decided that Backe’s underdevelopment in the Devil Rays’ system had finally caught up with him, and so they sent him down to AAA New Orleans to become a starter there and pitch every fourth day. Backe pitched well this season at New Orleans, and the Stros recalled him recently when Andy Pettitte decided to have season ending elbow surgery. Saturday night’s game was his first start in Major League Baseball.
On the other hand, the Cubs’ Mark Prior, 24, is unquestionably one of the best young players in all of Major League Baseball. Prior has impeccable pitching mechanics, tremendous control, and a 96 m.p.h. heater. During the 2003 season, Prior was 18-6 and arguably the best pitcher in the National League. Barring injury, Prior will likely be the best pitcher in the National League over the next decade.
Moreover, the Cubs are legitimate contenders for the National League Wildcard Playoff spot and are coming off Friday night’s game in which they made two Stros’ pitching staff members look like batting practice pitchers. The Stros are 5 1/2 games back in the Wild Card race and realistically, are playing out the string on the 2004 season.
Given that backdrop, Saturday night’s Stros-Cubs game looked like a classic mismatch — the Cubs’ Prior versus the Stros’ Backe, who was starting his first game in Major League Baseball. To make matters worse, the Stros’ bullpen was not available to bail Backe out after having been used heavily over the past three games in which the Stros had given up 27 runs.
So, what happens? Backe pitches seven shutout innings and hits a two run single off of Prior to stake the Stros to a 2-0 lead over the Cubs after seven innings.
Then, after Miceli and Lidge blew the save, the Stros came back with two runs in the bottom of the ninth to pull out a stirring 4-3 win over the Cubs.
As the oldtimers say, “That’s why you play the game.”
Backe was magnificant, giving up only four hits and three walks in seven innings. He baffled the Cubs’ hitters by throwing a lively 92 m.p.h. heater mixed with a slow and hard curve, and a hard slider.
Viz and Jason Lane were the Stros’ heros in the bottom of the ninth along with the Cubs’ Macias, who contributed a key throwing error that put the tying and winning runs in scoring position. After Macias’ miscue, Viz tied it with a single and then Lane — who had come into the game for Bidg in the top of the ninth as a defensive replacement — won it with a single to right as the Stros’ dugout and the Juice Box crowd went bananas.
As my 16 year old son and I walked away from the Juice Box after the game, he turned to me and said, “Dad, it doesn’t get any better than that.”
Amen.
The Stros’ Roy O and the Cubs’ Kerry Wood tangle in an attractive rubber game on Sunday afternoon, but they will have to be in top form to compete with the Backe-Prior matchup from Saturday night’s game. The Phillies come to town on Monday for a three game set with the Rocket opening that series for the Stros.

Pete Munro and Chad Harville pitched batting practice to the Cubs on Friday night at the Juice Box. Unfortunately, the umps kept score and the Cubs used seven (actually six, I lost count when I posted that they had hit seven) yaks to pound the Stros, 9-2.
Frankly, given that the Stros were using pitchers who are really AAA quality, the outcome of the game was not surprising. On Saturday night, Brandon Backe, who could not remain with the club as a reliever earlier this year, starts against the Cubs’ Mark Prior. It will take a minor miracle for the Stros to win that game.
The Sunday matinee has a great matchup between Roy O and Kerry Wood, which should at least generate some interest until Roger Clemens‘ next start. That’s about all Stros fans have to look forward to these days.

The Stros and the Phillies picked up this afternoon where they left off last night as the Stros came back from a 7-2 deficit with a seven run seventh inning to sweep the Phils and win their fourth straight, 12-10.
Oddly, the Stros’ big rally actually began with the Stros in the field as they pulled off an Ensberg to JK to Lamb triple play (the Stros first since 1991) with the bases loaded and no outs in the bottom of the fifth. Then, Bidg started the seventh inning heroics with a two run shot that was quickly followed by Lance Berkman‘s massive two run yak to staight away center. Then, as the Phillies relievers proved that they are one of the worst groups in the league, light-hitting Eric Bruntlett uncorked a three run tater to left to complete the explosion. The Stros tacked on a couple more on JK‘s double in the ninth to complete their scoring.
Carlos Hernandez was roughed up in his second start since being recalled from AAA, which is to be expected as he continues to regain arm strength from last season’s labrum surgery. After Bullinger fiddled around with allowing the Phils to close to within 12-10, Miceli came in to get the final out in the eighth and then Lidge closed this one out with a spotless ninth.
The Stros come home to meet the Cubs in a weekender with Pete Munro leading the way on Friday, with newly-recalled Brandon Backe probably going on Saturday and Roy O pitching the Sunday matinee. The Phils come to Houston for a little payback in a three game series that begins on Monday.

Joe Sheehan is one of the best writers at the incomparable baseball Baseball Prospectus. Yesterday he penned the following summary analysis on what has happened to the Stros this season and the prospects for the future:

For the Astros, Roger Clemens is a candidate for the Cy Young Award, and Roy Oswalt has been a top-ten starter in the NL. Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller, however, have combined for 30 starts, while Tim Redding put up a 5.73 ERA and lost his spot in June. Brandon Duckworth was awful in his stead.
The trade of Billy Wagner to the Phillies has been blamed for some of the Astros’ pitching problems, but the real culprit was the rotation. The Astros had plenty of pitching with which to replace Wagner in the back of the bullpen–Brad Lidge has been dominant, and Octavio Dotel was effective before being traded–but when three-fifths of the rotation averaged 5 2/3 innings a start, the strain on the bottom of the staff cost the the team a lot of games in the early part of the season.
It didn’t help that this was the year in which the Astros’ offense finally died, and it did so while getting Craig Biggio’s best season since he was a second baseman back in 2001. The team’s .257 EqA ranks 12th in the NL. This will be the first below-average offense the Astros have had since 1991, Jeff Bagwell’s rookie season. Thirteen years later, Bagwell has been part of the problem, his bum right shoulder limiting him to a .443 slugging average that is flirting with his career low.
Jeff Kent and Morgan Ensberg have been disappointing as well, and a team carrying Brad Ausmus and Adam Everett just can’t affford that many underachievers. Even upgrading from Richard Hidalgo to Carlos Beltran in June wasn’t enough.
It would be nice if there was one easy answer to the Astros’ collapse, but there isn’t, and that’s baseball. Sometimes, if everyone is a little off-a couple of pitchers get hurt, a couple of hitters find their decline phase-you’re not good enough to win any longer. That’s the edge the Astros, with their love for their veteran players, have balanced on for a few seasons now. This year, even with Roger Clemens coming aboard and doing Roger Clemens things, they finally fell off.
It’s time to start over. While there will be a considerable desire to bring back the popular core of this team for another run, there’s no baseball reason for doing so. It’s an old team with no upside whose best player, Beltran, isn’t coming back. There’s no core of young talent ready to step in an rejuvenate the lineup, and there isn’t the willingness or ability to spend $100 million on the payroll, which might be enough to keep the engine running.
The Killer Bs had a long and prosperous run, winning four division titles in five seasons at their Larry Dierker peak. That they never won a playoff series became their story, but the fact remains that this is the dominant team in the storied history of the NL Central.
And it’s time to say goodbye to it.

Hat tip to the Astro in Exile for the link to Mr. Sheehan’s piece.

Roger Clemens hurt his right calf running the bases (he does everything for the Stros, you know) and watched as his teammates beat the Phils 9-8 on Wednesday night in the type of game that just might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in the Phils’ decision on when to fire the Boa Constrictor.
Carlos Beltran‘s two-run double in the eighth inning was the game winner on a day in which — as predicted here — the Stros learned that Andy Pettitte will have season-ending elbow surgery next week. Pettitte and the Stros are telling the media that he expects to be ready to pitch again by spring training in 2005, but don’t bet on that. Best case is that he pitches again sometime next season, more likely by around June or so.
Clemens is day to day after straining his right calf running to first base on his two-run single in the fourth, but doesn’t expect to miss his next start. Before he left the game, the Rocket gave up four runs in three innings in this unusually wild affair. Beltran finished with two hits and three RBI for the Stros, who somehow remain just are six games behind the Giants in the race for the NL wild-card playoff spot. The Stros hitters uncharacteristically cranked out 13 hits, including at least one by every starter. Just to make sure that this see-saw game ended on an appropriate note, Brad Lidge retired a pinch-hitter on a shallow fly ball with the bases loaded to end the game. The loss means that the Phils are now 1-8 on their current homestand, which is not going over well with the Philly locals
The Stros have moved Carlos Hernandez up in the rotation to pitch today’s businessman’s special in Philly before the club returns home to battle the Cubbies in a weekend series at the Juice Box.

Roy O, Mike Gallo, and Dan Miceli combined on a five-hitter, and Raul Chavez hit an improbable three-run double as the Stros won their second straight 5-0 victory over the free-falling Phillies on Tuesday night in Philly.
Staked to an unusual big lead, Oswalt (13-8) was dominant, allowing five hits, striking out seven and walking two in 7 2-3 innings to win his fifth straight decision. Gallo got the final out in the eighth, and Miceli pitched a perfect ninth to gain only the Stros’ third win in their last nine games. It was the club’s 10th shutout this season.
The Phillies were shut out for the fourth time and fell to 1-7 on their current homestand. The loss did not go over well with the Philly faithful, who let the Phils know about their acute displeasure after each futile at bat.
By the way, just to show how bad the Stros are at the catcher position this season, Chavez’s big night now gives him 15 RBIs in 111 at-bats this season and he is still a better hitter statistically than the Stros’ regular catcher, the impotent Brad Ausmus. Ugh!
The Rocket takes the hill in the second game of the Phils series as Andy Pettitte goes to have his sore left elbow examined by Dr. Andrews in Birmingham. That is usually a precursor to surgery, so don’t expect to see Pettitte pitch again for a long while.

After losing four straight to the Expos, the Stros rallied for three runs in the ninth to salvage the final game of the weekend series in Montreal, 5-4.
With the victory, the Stros ended a four-game losing streak and won for just the second time in their last eight games. Reflecting their futility this season, the Stros had been 0-51 before today’s game when trailing after eight innings.
The Expos led 4-2 in the ninth when Jeff Kent and Michael Lamb hit consecutive one-out singles to chase Expos starter Livan Hernandez, who up to that point had allowed only Carlos Beltran‘s two-run yak in the first. Jason Lane then hit a run-scoring single off Expos reliever Ayala and Viz tied the score with a groundout to shortstop. Pinch-hitter Orlando Palmeiro then singled in the go-ahead run. Brad Lidge pitched the ninth for his 13th save in 15 chances.
The Stros get a golf day on Monday in Philly before opening a three game set against the Phils on Tuesday (sorry about the error in the previous Stros’ posts–I had deluded myself into thinking the Stros got to play the equally woeful Reds next). The Stros return home on Friday for a big three game homestand against the Cubbies.

The Stros wasted a solid pitching performance from Carlos Hernandez as their fragile bullpen again allowed the Expos to trounce the Stros late, 8-3 in Montreal on Saturday night.
Hernandez’s performance was promising, as he yielded three runs on seven hits in six innings. His velocity is not what it was before his injury (a torn labrum), but he battled gamely and put the Stros in a position to win the game. Reliever Chad Qualls screwed the pooch, giving up 5 runs in the seventh, including a grand salami to Nick Johnson. Beyond Lidge, the Stros bullpen is falling into oblivion.
Oh, and let’s not overlook the Stros’ offense. Four hits, three runs. Bags had a two run yak and a double, but the impotency of the Stros’ offense has to be discouraging for the pitching staff members, who know they have no margin for error.
Pete Munro attempts to salvage a game in this series before the Stros take off to Cincy for a series with the reeling Reds. It will be nice to see the Stros play a club that is playing as badly as they are.

The Expos came back to score two runs with two outs in the 12th to beat the Stros 6-5 for their sixth win in a row, three of which have come over the hapless Stros.
Chad Harville (does he not have any minor league options left or what?) blew his second straight save opportunity and took the loss for the Stros. After yaks by Carlos Beltran, Jeff Kent, and Morgan Ensberg had tied the game in the ninth and then given the Stros a 5-4 lead in the 12th, Harville pitched the 12th and actually got the first two outs. He then proceeded to give up a tater, two walks, and the game winning single. Why is this guy still on the major league roster?
Roger Clemens was not sharp, but he battled through six innings and kept his club in the game until the outburst in the ninth. Five other Stros relievers before Harville looked good. Again, why is this guy still on the major league roster?
Stros fans get to see former phenom Carlos Hernandez today get his first start in two years on his road back from shoulder surgery. Oh yeah, did I remember to ask why Harville is still pitching for the major league club?