The much anticipated pitching matchup between the Stros’ Roy O and the Cubs’ Kerry Wood deteriorated into an old-fashioned beanball contest as the Cubs pounded the Stros 11-6 on Sunday afternoon at the Juice Box.
The shenanigans began in the second when Wood beaned Jason Lane after Mike Lamb had nailed a long solo yak to open the scoring. Oswalt reciprocated the following inning by nailing Michael Barrett squarely in the back after Aramis Ramirez had taken a bit too long in rounding the bases after cranking a two out, three run tater on an 0-2 pitch in the third. Oswalt was ejected immediately, but Wood stayed around until the fifth (despite nailing Beltran in the next inning on a slider in the dirt, which the the umps let that pass) when he nailed JK. At that point, Wood was gone along with Cubs manager Dusty Baker.
That was about the only excitement in this game, which was out of reach the way the Stros hit (or, more accurately, don’t hit) after Ramirez’s blast gae them a 5-1 lead. The Cubs are simply a better overall team than the Stros, particularly in the area in which the Stros struggle — hitting the ball hard.
Our periodic review of the Stros hitters’ runs created against average (“RCAA”) and the Stros pitchers’ runs saved against average (“RSAA” and RCAA explained here) accurately reflects the Stros’ current status in the National League — about average, but not close to being a contender for a playoff spot. Here are the Stros hitters’ RCAA numbers, courtesy of Lee Sinins:
Lance Berkman 45
Carlos Beltran 12
Mike Lamb 6
Jeff Bagwell 5
Craig Biggio 5
Eric Bruntlett 2
Chris Burke -1
Jeff Kent -1
Jason Lane -2
Orlando Palmeiro -3
Richard Hidalgo -9
Jose Vizcaino -9
Morgan Ensberg -12
Adam Everett -12
Raul Chavez -14
Brad Ausmus -23
The Stros are 10th out of the 16 National League teams in RCAA, and have generated 11 fewer runs than an average National League team would have generated so far this season.
Berkman, and Beltran continue to be the only Stros having excellent seasons hitting the ball (Beltran’s RCAA is 29 when his Kansas City RCAA is added to his Stros RCAA). Bidg‘s performance is in free fall as his RCAA over the past month has been a negative 8 and his performance is now equal to the disappointing output of Bags. Those two players combined RCAA is about one half their output from last season. Combine that drop in performance with the precipitous drops in RCAA from Ensberg, Kent, and Hidalgo from their output of last season and you have a presciption for a ballclub that struggles to score runs.
Meanwhile, the injuries to the Stros’ pitchers are starting to take a toll on the Stros’ pitching staff’s overall performance. After topping out two weeks ago in 3rd among the 16 National League pitching staffs in RSAA, the Stros’ pitching staff has fallen back to fifth, but still have given up 34 runs less than an average NL pitching staff. Here are the individual RSAA of each Stros pitcher:
Roger Clemens 26
Roy Oswalt 19
Brad Lidge 18
Wade Miller 10
Octavio Dotel 5
Darren Oliver 5
Andy Pettitte 4
Dan Miceli 3
Brandon Backe 1
Kirk Bullinger 0
Mike Gallo -2
David Weathers -2
Jeremy Griffiths -3
Pete Munro -3
Chad Qualls -3
Ricky Stone -3
Carlos Hernandez -4
Jared Fernandez -6
Chad Harville -8
Brandon Duckworth -9
Tim Redding -14
Clemens, Oswalt and Lidge continue to have outstanding seasons, but the remainder of the healthy Stros’ pitchers are led by Miceli‘s barely above-average performance. Consequently, unless Clemens or Oswalt goes late into a game and hands the ball to Miceli and Lidge, or the Stros enjoy an unexpected performance such as the one Backe provided on Saturday night, the Stros are going to lose more games than they win because of their overall combination of below average pitching after the big three and far below average hitting after Berkman and Beltran.
Interestingly, as predicted, the Stros have settled into third place in the National League Central and I suspect that they will stay there for the remainder of the season unless the Stros’ players simply pack it in. However, the Stros have no realistic shot at the Wildcard Playoff berth because their available personnel simply is unlikely to generate enough improvement over the remaining 40 games to compete with the Giants, Cubs, and Padres for that spot.
The Rocket takes the hill on Monday in the opener of a three game series against the Phils. After the Wednesday game of that series, the Stros travel to Chicago for a four game set at Wrigley on Thursday through Sunday and then to Cincy to pad their hitting statistics against the Reds’ horrifying pitching staff.