Dodgers rightfielder J.D. Drew opted out of the final three years of his $11 million per year contract last week, passing up the remaining three years and $33 million on his deal to test what he could draw on the free agent market. The conventional wisdom is that Drew made a mistake.
However, based on the first week or so of free agent transactions this off-season, not only did Drew not make a mistake, it looks to me as if his decision to opt-out was a no-brainer. Drew (28 RCAA/.393 OBA/.498 SLG/.891 OPS for 2006; 146/.393/.512/.904 career) is probably the best outfielder in this year’s free agent pool and maybe even the position player overall. With the upper end of of this year’s market looking like 5 years and $80 million or so for a player of his caliber, the 31 year-old Drew will probably earn an additional $20-30 million of guaranteed money and almost certainly do much better than $33 million over 3 years. Yeah, he’s not the most popular guy in the clubhouse and he has had injury problems, but he’s coming off a solid season in which he played a career-high 146 games. Some team needing solid production from the left side of the plate (which team doesn’t) will probably pay him the premium over his prior contract that prompted the opt-out.
Drew’s opt-out reflects the reason why the Stros probably won’t be much of a factor on the free agent market this off-season. Drew is good, but he’s not as good as the Stros’ Lance Berkman, who is entering the third season of his six year deal that pays him about $14 million a year. There is no way the Stros are going to pay someone like Drew more than Berkman, even though Drew probably will end up making more than Berkman from some other team.
That’s why retooling a Major League Baseball club on the free agent market is really not a practical approach except for a few big-market clubs — it’s prohibitively expensive. Better to maintain the farm (and fiscal sanity) with good prospects and then tap the free agent market only when it is likely to produce a player who will propel the club into playoff contention.

The all-consuming football season in Texas tends to blot out news on virtually any other sporting front, but the fall is also an important period for development purposes in professional baseball. And with the Stros currently trolling the expensive free agent market for some desperately-needed hitting and better left-handed relief pitching, a couple of top prospects are turning heads this fall.
Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan likes what he sees ($) in the Arizona Fall League from Stros pitching prospect Troy Patton, who played last season at A Lexington and AA Corpus Christi:

The Astrosí Troy Patton looked very good in two shutout innings. He has been a starter his whole career, but he looks like he could be a lefty reliever for the ëStrosówho have struggled to find one over the yearsóas early as this spring. He’s not just a specialist; he has four pitches, including a very effective change-up according to [Jason Grey, author of the AFL Scouting Guide] Grey. His sizeóa slight 6-1óand his slider may doom him to a limited role, but heís capable of much more. Ron Villone comes to mind.

Goodness knows that it’s high time that the Stros quit rolling the dice on situational lefties out of the bullpen such as Mike Gallo and Trevor Miller.
But even more importantly, Sheehan reports that one of the most impressive players in the Arizona Fall League was Stros OF prospect Hunter Pence, who tore up the Texas League last season at AA Corpus:

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The Stros made official yesterday what had been expected for the past couple years — the club did not pick up the option year on injured slugger Jeff Bagwell’s contract. As noted earlier here, Bags is easily the best player in Stros franchise history and should be a shoo-in for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Although most folks know that Bagwell was an extraordinary player, relatively few people realize that he was one of the best hitters in Major League Baseball history over the course of his career.

As regular readers of this blog know, I believe that the statistic of runs created against average (“RCAA”) is the best measure of a baseball player’s hitting ability. RCAA is a Lee Sinins-developed statistic that focuses on the most important statistic in baseball for a hitter, which is creating runs to help the hitter’s team score more than the other team.

Whereas more commonly cited statistics such as batting average can be highly misleading regarding a hitter’s true effectiveness, RCAA is particularly insightful in evaluating hitters because it focuses on the two most important things in winning baseball games for a hitter — that is, creating runs and avoiding making outs.

RCAA computes the number of runs that a particular player creates for his team relative to the number of outs that he makes, and then compares that number of runs to the number (zero) that a hypothetical average hitter would create while using an equivalent number of outs. Inasmuch as the hypothetical average hitter’s RCAA is always zero, a player can have either an RCAA that is a positive number — which indicates he is an above average hitter — or an RCAA that is a negative number, which means that he is below-average hitter.

Moreover, RCAA is also a valuable tool in evaluating hitting ability because it allows for comparison between hitters from different eras.

Inasmuch as RCAA measures a player’s hitting ability against that of an average player in the player’s league for each particular season, a player’s career RCAA measures how that hitter compared to an average hitter during the hitter’s career.

Thus, comparing RCAA of hitters from two different eras allows us to compare how those hitters produced relative to an average hitter in their particular era, whereas comparisons of other hitting statistics — such as on-base average, slugging percentage, and batting average — are often skewed between players of hitter-friendly eras (such as the past 15 year or so) versus players of pitcher-friendly eras, such as the late 1960’s and early 70’s.

A review of Bags’ career using RCAA as a the measuring stick reflects his greatness. He has the 9th best career RCAA among National League hitters since 1900:

1 Barry Bonds 1591
2 Stan Musial 1204
3 Rogers Hornsby 1081
4 Hank Aaron 1039
5 Willie Mays 1008
6 Mel Ott 989
7 Honus Wagner 938
8 Albert Pujols 691
9 Jeff Bagwell 680
10 Joe Morgan 657

In addition to the foregoing, Bagwell holds the modern National League record for career RCAA by a 1B:

1 Jeff Bagwell 680
2 Johnny Mize 638
3 Willie McCovey 536
4 Todd Helton 521
5 Albert Pujols 485
6 Bill Terry 425
7 Stan Musial 399
8 Keith Hernandez 371
9 Dolph Camilli 353
10 Will Clark 331

Finally, as noted several times before, Bags is far and away the career-leader in RCAA among Stros players, so much so that Lance Berkman is the only player at this time who even has a remote chance of catching him:

1 Jeff Bagwell 680
2 Lance Berkman 485
3 Craig Biggio 314
4 Jose Cruz 277
5 Cesar Cedeno 249
6 Jimmy Wynn 240
7 Bob Watson 216
8 Joe Morgan 170
9 Moises Alou 128
10 Terry Puhl 114

In addition to his extraordinary hitting ability, Bags was an excellent baserunner and a superb defensive player until his shoulder injury restricted his ability to throw over the final three seasons of his career.

In short, Jeff Bagwell was the entire package, and it will be a long time before the Houston Astros organization and its followers will ever enjoy a player of comparable ability. Bagwell’s complete career statistics are here.

Former Stros pitcher Joe Niekro died yesterday at the age of 61 in Tampa, Florida, reportedly of a brain aneurysm. Niekro pitching in 22 Major league seasons from 1967 through 1988 with seven teams, including the Stros, the Cubs, the Padres, the Tigers, the Braves, the Yankees and the Twins. Neil Hohlfeld’s Chronicle article on Niekro’s death is here, the NY Times obituary is here and don’t miss former teammate Larry Dierker’s heartfelt reflections on Niekro here.
Niekro and his Hall of Fame brother Phil were two of the best knuckleball pitchers of that era and still hold the Major League record for total wins by brothers with 539 (Joe accounted for 221 of those, 144 with the Stros). Although both Niekros relied on the knuckleball as their out pitch, Joe actually threw a variety of pitches in addition to the knuckler while Phil threw the knuckleball exclusively.
For his career, Niekro ended up being a below-average National League pitcher — he had a -42 career runs saved against average (RSAA, explained here). However, the Stros were fortunate to have Niekro playing for the club during 11 of his best seasons. Niekro pitched for the Stros from 1975-85, and he was a workhorse on the Stros pitching staffs (along with Nolan Ryan and J.R. Richard) of the first Stros teams that were serious playoff contenders in the 1979-81 seasons.

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As noted here and here earlier, Chronicle sports columnist Richard Justice comes uncorked at the darndest times.
Take Justice’s recent blog post on why the Stros should not make a play for disgruntled New York Yankees star, Alex Rodriguez. Rodriguez is the same age as Stros slugger Lance Berkman and has substantially better career hitting statistics than Berkman, but Justice engages in vacuous blathering about how Rodriguez would not be a “good fit” for the Stros despite the fact that it is clear that the Stros’ main need is a hitter of Rodriguez’s quality.
Well, Justice’s subjective analysis would normally not even merit a comment, except that he ends it with the following salvo:

A-Rod may be the kind of guy [Stros GM] Tim Purpura would want, but I’m guessing the best GMs–Billy Beane, Gerry Hunsicker, Pat Gillick, etc.–wouldn’t touch him.

What a cheap shot at Purpura. Although it’s fine to think that Rodriguez would not be welcome in the Stros clubhouse, it’s silly to suggest that exploring a trade for a hitter of his caliber reflects poor judgment by the Stros GM. And though Justice apparently doesn’t want to admit it, his old buddy Hunsicker is such a good general manager that he couldn’t even land a GM job at all after leaving the Stros last year and ended up working this past season as an aide to the GM at Tampa Bay, not exactly on the upper-crust of Major League Baseball.
Richard Justice needs to remove his nose from Gerry Hunsicker’s rear end.

With the League Championship Series matchups now set, it’s time to put the Stros 2006 season to rest. At least the Stros’ late season surge was fun while it lasted, but it ended in the same manner as too many of this club’s games (previous reviews here) — with a whimper in Atlanta as the Stros failed to make the playoffs for the first time in three seasons and for the only the fourth time in the past 10 seasons. This tenth and final review of the season will provide a report card on the Stros, hopefully without the subjective blather that we endure from much of the mainstream media that covers the club.
The Stros played well down the stretch as they posted an 11-6 record in the final 1/10th of the season (including their magical nine game winning streak), which means that they were a solid 21-12 over the final 20% of the season. However, inasmuch as the Stros were 19-13 during the first 20% of the season, that means that the club was an abysmal 42-55 during the middle 60% of the season. That latter record is reflective of the club’s poor hitting, while the 40-25 record during the first and final 20% segments of the season reflect the club’s strong pitching. The combination of the two means that the Stros are about a National League-average team, which is proved by the club’s 82-80 final record.
The Stros late-season run was fueled by outstanding pitching, which has been the foundation of the club’s success throughout the Biggio-Bagwell era. After a slow start this season, the Stros pitching staff really picked it up over the second half of the season, finishing by saving an outstanding 78 more runs than a National League-average pitching staff would have saved in the same number of innings (RSAA, explained here). That was the best of any pitching staff in the National League this season.
Nevertheless, as has been the case over the past six seasons, the Stros’ overall hitting declined again this season. The club’s hitters generated a poor 47 runs fewer runs than a National League-average team would have created using the same number of outs (RCAA, explained here), which was only 11th among the 16 National League teams.
Thus, while this season was clearly not disastrous, my main concern is that the club’s fast finish will distract management from recognizing and addressing the festering problem with the club’s hitting that — if not rectified — will prevent the Stros from being a perennial playoff contender during the Berkman-Oswalt era. The initial management move — firing pitching coach Jim Hickey while retaining manager Phil Garner and hitting coach Sean Berry — is not particularly encouraging, although it must be conceded that young, back-end rotation starters Taylor Buchholz and Wandy Rodriguez struggled this season. That probably sealed Hickey’s fate.
But as my grades for the Stros players reflect, the Stros have far bigger issues than their pitching coach. The club’s model of emphasizing pitching remains sound, so the club doesn’t need to become even an above-average National League-hitting team to return to serious playoff contention. In fact, adding merely one above-average hitting corner outfielder may be enough to do the trick so long as the pitching continues to excel. But whatever deals Stros management make, the club clearly does not need to make wholesale changes during the off-season to return to serious playoff contention in the 2007 season. Indeed, the $40 million or so in payroll that will be freed up with the expiration of the Bagwell, Clemens and Pettitte contracts will provide Stros management with some much-needed flexibility in consummating a deal or two.
My report card for the Stros follows the final season statistics below. Pdf’s of the final hitting stats are here and the final pitching stats are here), courtesy of Lee Sinins‘ sabermetric Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The abbreviations for the hitting stats are defined here and the same for the pitching stats are here:

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Now that it looks as if the Stros late-season push for the playoffs is all for naught, it appears that the Stros may well be dealing with more than just the disappointment of missing the playoffs for the first time in three seasons.
Remember the Jason Grimsley Affair that broke this past June?
Then, remember that Cardinals’ slugger, Albert Pujols, was was one of the first Major League Baseball players implicated in the affair?
Well now, the ripples of the affair have reached the Stros, as the names of both Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte have been implicated in the affair (LA Times story here). Clemens and Pettitte deny any involvement with Grimsley or in using performance-enhancing drugs. Lawyers are being consulted.
As predicted earlier, this is going to get rather ugly. Unfortunately, the level of discussion will probably descend into scapegoating rather than a productive debate regarding the use of performence-enhancing drugs in professional sports.

Answer: The St. Louis Cardinals clubhouse.
Let’s put this in perspective. 10 days ago, the Cardinals won their game that day and the Stros lost theirs. At that time, the Cards were 79-69 and the Stros were 72-77. The Stros were trailing the Redbirds by a seemingly insurmountable 8.5 games.
After completing a sweep of the Pirates yesterday afternoon, the Stros are now 81-78 and a mere half game behind the 81- 77 Cards, who got creamed by the Brewers last night. So, in a week and a half, the Stros have gone from less than a five percent chance of making the playoffs to being a legitimate contender. You gotta love baseball.
Although there is a element of luck in what has happened, it’s really not that surprising when you look at the statistics. The Stros stellar pitching has continued to improve — as it usually does over the 2nd half of the season — and the hitting, although still well below Naitional League average, has improved enough so as not to undermine the excellent pitching. On the other hand, the Cardinals’ pitching — which has been deteriorating for over a season now — has gone into the tank while their hitting has been pretty much relegated to an occasional Pujols tater.
The Stros have three games against the Braves in Atlanta and the Cards have three more games at home against the Brewers and a make-up game, if necessary, against the Giants on Monday in St. Louis. If the Stros and Cards tie, the one-game playoff is on Tuesday at Minute Maid Park in Houston.

As noted earlier here and here, the past week and a half has been fun for the Stros as an improbable series of events has catapulted the club back into playoff contention. The Stros won again in Pittsburgh last night, using nine pitchers for the second time in three games and overcoming a 6-1 deficit. The Stros (80-78) have now won eight straight games.
Unfortunately, the Cardinals (81-76) finally broke their seven game losing streak, which is what really got the Stros back in the race for a playoff spot. Accordingly, the Cards’ magic number to win the NL Central title is now four — that is, any combination of further Cardinal wins (they have five games left) and Stros losses (they have four games left) equaling four means that the Cardinals win the title.
Roy O and the Stros go for the sweep this afternoon against the Pirates while the Cardinals open up a four game series at home tonight against the Brewers.