One of my favorite moments each March is when the annual edition of the best book on baseball — Baseball Prospectus — shows up at the door. As noted in past years here and here, Baseball Prospectus has become a required resource for general managers and personnel directors of Major League Baseball clubs, and this 12th annual edition continues to improve on BP’s already formidable analytical tools.
Prepared by about a dozen disciples of Bill James‘ statistical analysis of baseball, Baseball Prospectus 2007 includes a thorough analysis of each Major League Baseball team, each team’s management approach, each team’s minor league system and a capsule profile of every Major League player and most key minor league prospects of each team (over 1,600 in all!). For all big-league players and many top minor league prospects, BP also provides the key statistics reflecting how the player has performed over the past three seasons and also BP’s PECOTA prediction of how the player will perform this coming season. The writing is sharp and witty, and includes none of the subjective blather that one has to endure in much of the mainstream media. I often take BP to Stros games and read the player profiles and statistical analysis during breaks in the game.
One thing I particularly enjoy about the BP folks is that they recognize that their predictions are not always right and are not defensive in the least about it. For example, the BP folks have been bearish on the Stros for several years now, which means that they have largely wrong as the Stros went to the NLCS three seasons ago, to the World Series two seasons ago, and almost edged into the NL playoffs again last season (my report card for the Stros after last season is here). BP is not as down on the Stros this season, but it does note that the club does not appear to have a long-range development plan and continues to be hurt by indulging Craig Biggio’s declining production, Brad Ausmus’ incompetence and a farm system that — outside of Hunter Pence — is devoid of Major League-quality position players at the top levels of the system.
Although BP is not bullish on the Stros as a team, its profiles of individual Stros players — particularly the club’s traditionally strong pitching staff — are generally favorable. One notable exception to that generally positive treatment is the profile on Ausmus, whose incompetence BP attempts to place in historical perspective:
Insiders continue to call Ausmus a winner who improves a pitching staff, but it’s hard to believe he could retain many adherents after a season as bad as 2006. According to the Value Over Replacement Level statistic, Ausmus had the 16th worst offensive season of any MLB player since 1960, but that’s trivia.
Last year, the average catcher had an on base percentage of .330 and slugged .417. Say the Astros had A.J. Pierzynski, who had an OBP of .330 and a slugging percentage of .436. By our calculation, Ausmus created 38 runs of offense last season while using up 351 outs, which Pierzinsky wuold have created 68 runs while using up the same number of outs. Those additional 30 runs are worth roughly three wins in the standings (the Astros finished one game behind the division-winning Cardinals in the NL Central).
Knowing that, how much credi do you want to give Ausmus for the Astros staff? Did he improve them by one percent? Five? Ten? It stretches believe that Ausmus deserves credit for a twentieth or eve a tenth of the success of Roger Clemens or Andy Pettitte, and there is no objective evidence that changing catchers would result in any penalty. For all of Ausmus’ wizardry, the Astros haven’t established a young (starting) pitcher since 2001. The Astros have been needlessly costing themselves in a competitive division; it’s time to get over it.
And the profile for one of the Stros’ other notable incompetents, lefty Wandy Rodriguez:
It’s not a nickname of a diminutive — the man’s real name is Wandy Fulton Rodriguez. That’s an odd collection of names — an implement from the Harry Potter books, the inventor of the steamboat, and — mixing the exotic with the jejune — one of the baseball’s most common surnames. Even his son, Wadells, gets in on the name game.
As for his pitching, he’s a prototypical skinny Dominican without a dominant pitch. He’s a swingman, if the swing referred to is the short trip from Houston to Round Rock.
By the way, it doesn’t appear as if Rice baseball coach Wayne Graham is going to be sending any free tickets to the BP author Kevin Goldstein this season. Here’s Goldstein’s profile of former Rice pitcher, Philip Humber, a Mets farmhand, in his Top 100 Prospects article:
In 2004, Rice’s big three — Humber, Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend — were all selected within the first eight picks of the June draft. They all had disturbing workloads in college, and now they’ve had two Tommy John surgeries (Humber, Townsend) and a series of shoulder problems requiring minor surgery (Niemann). Humber’s return from the procedure was nothing short of remarkable, but if I had a kid with a million dollar arm who insisted on going to college, he sure wouldn’t go to Rice.
Pick up a copy of BP 2007 — it’s as good a $12 as you will spend on baseball all year. Heck, BP even gives you free online access to the four players that they forgot to include in the book!
