Now even the SportsPickle is getting into the act of making fun of embattled Stros reliever, Brad Lidge:

Brad Lidge confident he can help Astros lose in the eighth inning just as much as in the ninth
Although he has been demoted from closer to a setup role, Astros reliever Brad Lidge says he believes he can contribute just as much to team in the middle innings as he can in the ninth inning.
ìIím going to keep going out there, and doing what I do ñ throwing the ball as hard as I can right down the middle of the plate,î said Lidge. ìWhether thatís in the sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth inning, itís no matter. The batter is going to have to put his bat on it. And if he does, good for him. Itís a guaranteed home run.î
Even though he is disappointed to lose his closerís role, Lidge admits he may serve the team better as a setup man.
ìSeeing me come in for the seventh or eighth inning will be motivating for the team,î said Lidge. ìTheyíll know that they still have one or two at-bats to come back from the deficit I put them in. Whereas when I gave up walkoff homers as a closer, they never had a chance to come back. Having me available at any point in the game will ensure the team never gets lackadaisical.î

Lidge is an easy target these days, but there are plenty of other Stros who aren’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard in the season’s early days. For example, through 11 games, Stros icon and lead off man Craig Biggio has an RCAA of -3, an on-base average of .240 and an OPS (OBA + slugging percentage) of .620, he has not yet drawn a walk in 50 plate appearances, has scored only 5 runs and has struck out 10 times while grounding into 2 double plays.
Granted, it’s still early in the season. But coming off his least productive season in 2006, Bidg has no business leading off for a Major League Baseball team at this point in his career. Although maybe good for the box office, it’s looking as if the Stros are going to be paying dearly on the field as a result of indulging Bidg’s quest for 3,000 hits.

Stros manager Phil Garner was ejected in the Stros’ win last night over the Phillies as home plate umpire Greg Gibson was putting the squeeze on Roy O, who gave up a career-high six walks and balked in a run. After Oswalt balked in the run, Garner had had enough and chewed out Gibson pretty well. Maybe it worked because a line of Stros pitchers (including Brad Lidge) held the Phils without any runs the rest of the way.
But Garner’s rhubarb with Gibson was rather tame in comparison to those that the late Billy Martin used to engage in with various umpires during his rough and tumble career of managing the Twins, Yankees, A’s and Rangers. Martin’s hair trigger temper led the Oakland A’s to feature him in the clever commercial below to sell tickets for the club’s opening home game of the 1981 season. Martin had much to be content about that season as A’s started out 8-0 on their way to an early-season record of 20-3. They went on to win their division in that strike-shortened split season before losing to the Yankees in the ALCS. Enjoy.

The Stros seem to be steadying a bit after a horrendous 1-5 start, but if you think the hometown team’s start has been bad, get a load of what happened on Monday to Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins.
Over this past off-season, Rollins provided New York and Philadelphia sports columnists a season full of material by declaring that the Phillies — who finished a mere 12 games behind the Mets last season in the NL East — were the team to beat this season in the division.
The two teams met on Monday for the Mets’ home owner, during which Rollins proceeded to hit into a double play with the bases loaded, booted a potential double-play grounder with the bases loaded, and wound up with 56,000 Met fans mockingly chanting his name. The Mets came from behind to pound the Phillies, 11-5 and are off to a 5-2 start. The Phils are 1-6. Philly sports columnist Bob Ford puts it all in perspective:

“If you haven’t really arrived until they notice you in New York, then Jimmy Rollins made his official major-league debut yesterday. ‘Jim-my Roll-ins, Jim-my Roll-ins,’ came the mocking singsong from the stands at Shea Stadium. The fans added a verb occasionally, just for effect, but it wasn’t all that necessary. Fifty thousand people chanting your name is testament enough.”

Okay, so Stros skipper Phil Garner — who we already know is not a very good manager — pulls yet another bonehead move and allows besieged reliever Brad Lidge to blow a fine Roy O Opening Day performance by giving up a two-out, top of the 9th inning tater. And that move letting Ausmus bat second while trying to generate a rally in the bottom of the 10th was real smooth, too.
But even more importantly, when did it become acceptable to bat a guy with the two worst OBA seasons in club history at the top of the order in front of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, not to mention Morgan Ensberg (.396 OBA in 2006), Chris Burke (.347), and Luke Scott (.426)?
As I noted in my season preview yesterday, Garner’s bullheadedness is going to hurt the Stros this season. Little did I know that it would only take one game to prove it.

Today is Opening Day for Major League Baseball, so it’s time for my fourth annual Stros season preview (previous season reviews are here, here and here). Thankfully, it’s not been as tumultuous an off-season as the previous one, but there still have been several important developments with regard to the club since the end of the 2006 season:

The 2006 post-season recap, with final statistics and grading of each Stros player’s performance;
Analyzing the deals for the new Stros: Carlos Lee and Woody Williams, and Jason Jennings;
A proposed 2006 trade that I’m glad did not occur;
Say what? Alex Rodriguez is not a “good fit” for the Stros, while Adam Everett is?;
One of the favorite former Stros passes away unexpectedly;
The greatest Stros player in history prepares to retire, and a review of the best Stros hitters and pitchers;
Checking in down on the farm;
Is Richard Justice Andy Pettitte’s press agent?;
Is the Chronicle Brad Ausmus’ press agency?;
The risk of relying on Brad Lidge; and
Finally, the initial 2007 club roster.

After the best two-season run in club history in 2004-05 (NLCS and World Series appearances), the Stros in 2006 failed to make the playoffs for the first time in three seasons and for the only the fourth time in the past 10 seasons. The Stros played well down the stretch in 2006, posting a 21-12 record in their final 33 games, including a magical nine game winning streak that propelled the Stros during the final two weeks of the season from 8.5 games back to within a game of overtaking the World Champion Cardinals for the NL Central Division title.
However, the Stros were mediore for most of the rest of the season, including a brutal 42-55 stretch during the middle part of the season when the club’s poor hitting continually pulled down a pitching staff that slowly improved into one of the top staffs in the NL during the season. The overall result was an average National League team, which was reflected by the club’s final 82-80 record.
The trend over the past several seasons is that the Stros have used above-average pitching and defense to compensate for below-average hitting, but the club is tinkering with that approach this season. With the added production from Carlos Lee and the potentially above-average contributions from outfielders Luke Scott and farmhand Hunter Pence, the Stros have the potential to produce the best offense this season since the 2000 club. On the other hand, with the loss of starters Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, the Stros starting pitching is a big question mark after front-line starters Roy Oswalt and new acquisition Jennings. While the Stros will likely be better-balanced this season between hitting and pitching, it remains to be seen whether that balance will be the mix necessary to return the Stros to the playoffs.
During Spring Training this year, the competition for several roster spots was as sprightly as it’s been in many seasons. Thus, Pence — who had a great spring — was sent down for seasoning at AAA Round Rock, partly as a result of RF Jason Lane playing reasonably well after a horrid 2006 season. Meanwhile, longtime utility player Eric Bruntlett didn’t even make the club’s roster when the Stros elected to go with a 12 man pitching staff. Nevertheless, manager Phil Garner’s preference for veterans has hurt the clubs that he has managed over the years and and threatens to do so again in 2007 — what other reason than bias for veterans would justify having Wandy Rodriguez and Brian Moehler on the Stros’ pitching staff?
Along those lines, the biggest problem that the 2007 club faces is that 4/9’s of the lineup most days will include veterans C Ausmus, SS Everett, fading Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio and the pitcher. Between Ausmus, Everett and Bidg, the Stros generated 89 fewer runs than what average National League hitters would have generated in those three positions over the course of the 2006 season. Even with strong offensive production from the other five positions and strong pitching, that many runs is difficult to make up.
Although he is a future Hall-of-Famer, one of the two best Stros players in history and a wonderful fellow, Bidg has no business at this stage of his career being a major-league regular — the Stros have two younger second basemen (Chris Burke and AAA player Brooks Conrad) who project to have better offensive statistics this season than Bidg.
Despite that, Garner not only plans on playing Bidg regularly, he plans on having him be the club’s leadoff hitter. Bidg’s walk rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio and on-base average have all deteriorated well below that of an average NL leadoff man, and his increased power over the past couple of seasons is at least partly an illusion created by the short left-field porch in Minute Maid Park. To top it all off, Bidg has such limited range and arm strength in the field that he has become a far below average defensive player.
Meanwhile, even though Burke isnít nearly as good a player as Bidg was at his age (27), his development has been stunted by the Stros making him into a utility player over the past couple of seasons while indulging Bidg. What is clear is that Burke is a better player than Bidg now and is the Strosí best option at second base. Playing Burke in centerfield ó alongside the somewhat immobile Lee in left and the servicable Luke Scott and Jason Lane in RF ó isn’t fair either to Burke or to the Strosí pitching staff.
How will Burke turn out in centerfield? It’s hard to say, but he is a good athlete and clearly an offensive upgrade over the traded Wily Taveras. Burke projects to produce .348 OBA/.452 SLG/.800 OPS this season, which would be a well above-average performance for an NL centerfielder. But playing Burke in centerfield would be a much better move if it wasnít designed to create space for an inferior player such as Bidg and if the Stros didn’t have to play in Minute Maid Park, which has a gargantuan centerfield. To put this in perspective, there is a big difference between what the Cubs are asking of Alfonso Soriano in the relatively small centerfield of Wrigley Field and what the Stros are asking of Burke in the cavernous centerfield of Minute Maid. Stated simply, the Stros should be playing Burke at his best position of second base where he would be better than Bidg both defensively and offensively.
With Burke in centerfield, that leaves Scott to play right, where he had an incredible second half last season and deserves an opportunity to prove that he is an every day player this season. Scott playing regularly also keeps the Stros from having seven right-handed batters and Lance Berkman in the regular lineup. Moreover, if Scott becomes an every day player, then that gives Garner the flexibility to play Jason Lane or call up Pence to play center and sliding Burke in for Bidg at second base, which clearly gives the Stros a stronger lineup.
Which brings us to Pence, who continues to hit everything that is pitched to him — his most recent fete was hitting a 412 foot Pujols-type blast off of the bedraggled Lidge in the Stros-Round Rock game this past Thursday. Pence will start the season at AAA Round Rock, but if he keeps hitting and 4/9th’s of the Stros’ lineup continues to generate zeros, he’s not likely to be there for long. While the Stros’ limited offensive approach worked in 2005-06 when their pitching staffs those seasons were allowing among the fewest runs of any NL staff, those days appear to be long gone.
The following is the projected Strosí lineup and bench for the 2007 season:
Biggio 2B
Ensberg 3B
Berkman 1B
Lee LF
Scott RF
Burke CF
Everett SS
Ausmus C
Pitcher
Bench: Humberto Quintero (C), Lane, Mike Lamb, Mark Loretta and Orlando Palmeiro.
The run of .300 OBA’s from the 7 hole through the leadoff spot is likely to be a real rally-killer for this offense. Hereís what the lineup would look like if Garner simply played the best players at each position:
Burke 2B
Pence CF
Berkman 1B
Lee LF
Scott RF
Ensberg 3B
Everett SS
Quintero C
Pitcher
Bench: Ausmus, Lamb, Lane, Loretta, and Palmeiro.
The difference between these two lineups is at least 30 runs over the course of a season, and probably more like 40-50. Thatís at least two wins on offense, probably more, plus better defense at second base and centerfield. No team in MLB can turn its back on a three-win improvement, particularly when you consider that the Stros have missed making the playoffs by just one game in two of the last four seasons.
Which brings us back to Bidg. The Stros have decided that heís going to be their regular 2nd sacker until at least he gets 3000 hits, but his presence at leadoff and in the field is a barrier that is preventing the Stros from making the moves necessary to generate and save more runs. Batting leadoff last season, Bidg scored just 79 runs last season. Take away his 21 home runs, and he scored just 58 times. Thatís pretty pathetic for a leadoff hitter.
Thus, in my view, the Stros are not making the hard decisions that are necessary to return to the playoffs in 2007. This looks like a team that is capable of winning between 85-90 wins at best, and is at least equally capable of falling to the 75 win level if the starting pitching doesn’t develop. The saving grace for the Stros is that all of the other NL Central teams appear to have similar limitations this season, so 85 wins just might be enough to win the division. But building a club for 85 wins in a season is not a prescription for continuing the long-term success of the Biggio-Bagwell era throughout the current Berkman-Oswalt era.
Finally, I am going to continue my periodic reviews of the Stros throughout the season, but I’m going to modify routine. Last season, I reviewed the Stros’ progress after each 10% segment of the season, which worked out reasonably well. This season, I’m going to split the 162 game season into eighths, so I will review the club’s progress after each 20 game segment of the season (I’ll do 21-game segments for the first and last eighths). So, look for my first in-season review around April 23rd, give or take a day or two in the event of a postponed game in the first weeks of the season.

Shortstop Adam Everett is the Stros’ best defensive player and a truly elegant fielder. As a result, Chronicle Stros beat writer Brian McTaggert attempts to rationalize Everett’s horrible hitting:

Set to make his fourth consecutive opening-day start and fifth overall at shortstop, Everett hit .239 last year but posted career highs in RBIs (59), doubles (28), triples (six) and walks (34). [. . .]
Twenty points higher for Everett last year would simply have meant 10 additional hits sprinkled over six months. The thin line between perceived success and failure is why it hasn’t been uncommon to see Everett spend a few additional minutes in the batting cages this spring.

Talk about rose-colored glasses. Everett is one of the worst hitting regular players in Stros history, just behind the worst hitter, teammate Brad Ausmus. To give you an idea of how bad a hitter Everett is, he set the Stros single season record for worst on base average versus the league average in 2006, the 2nd consecutive year he’s done that:

Baseball Prospectus estimates that Everett saved the Stros 20 more runs last season with his defensive prowess than an average National League fielder would have saved for his team. Given that Everett’s runs created against average was a -31, that means that Everett cost the Stros at least 11 runs from what an average National League hitter at his position would have generated for the Stros.
With an immobile Biggio at second and an iffy outfield defense, the Stros can ill-afford give up Everett’s glove in the everyday lineup. But make no mistake about it, his hitting is very bad and remains one of the big problems for the ballclub.

As we edge closer to Major League Baseball’s Opening Day just a little over a week away, Baseball Prospectus’ Christina Kahrl provides this Playboy.com article on her ten favorite minor league baseball ballparks, two of which are in Texas — Dell Diamond in Round Rock and Missions Stadium in San Antonio. The new Whataburger Field in Corpus Christi didn’t make the list, but probably should have.
By the way, if you have never witnessed the seventh inning stretch entertainment at Missions Stadium called “Tackle the Taco” featuring Missions mascot Henry the Puffy Taco, that alone is worth the trip.

The Chronicle already has ran one puff piece this Spring on the Stros’ catcher, Brad Ausmus, in which the paper somehow overlooks the fact that Ausmus is the worst hitter in Stros franchise history. Not to be outdone, however, the normally realiable Chronicle golf writer, Steve Campbell, weighs in with yet another article on Ausmus, this time rationalizing that Ausmus’ pitiful hitting is somehow made up for by his stellar defense and Zen-like handling of pitchers.
The problem with this reasoning is that there is no objective basis for it. Using last season as an example, Ausmus generated 38 fewer runs for the Stros over the course of the season than an average National League hitter would have generated using the same number of outs as Ausmus. Although defensive statistics are less precise than offensive stats, Baseball Prospectus estimates that Ausmus saved the Stros six — count’em six — more runs over the course of the season than an average National League catcher would have saved the Stros from a defensive standpoint. Thus, the Stros generated 32 fewer runs last season using Ausmus than they would have if they had found a catcher who could hit and field at an average level.
Over the course of a season, those 32 runs would have generated at least 2.5 more wins. The Stros finished one game behind the Cards last season in the National League Central.
But even the Chronicle’s subjective worship of Ausmus doesn’t make any sense. Veteran Stros pitchers such as Oswalt, Clemens and Pettitte didn’t need Ausmus to help settle them down while pitching over the last several seasons. Meanwhile, it sure didn’t seem as if Ausmus’ comforting presence helped Brad Lidge much last season or had any positive effect on inexperienced pitchers such as Taylor Buchholz and Wandy Rodriguez. Ausmus doesn’t even throw out runners attempting steals on an average basis anymore. I will concede that he blocks pitches well — his one remaining above-average talent — but as Charles Kuffner points out, the Chronicle’s subjective musings of Ausmus’ intangible contributions simply do not square with the facts.
The Stros have been one of the better Major League Baseball ballclubs over the past decade. However, indulging a player as bad as Ausmus in the lineup for such a long time is the type of decision that has prevented the Stros from getting over the hump and putting together a World Series-winning club. Rather than being the public relations department for Ausmus, the Chronicle would be coming closer to doing its real job if it pointed that out every once in awhile.

As the Stros were languishing below .500 at the halfway point of the 2006 season, rumors were circulating that the Stros were entertaining a trade of their ace starter, Roy Oswalt, among others. The Stros ended up standing pat and then signed Oswalt to a lucrative long-term contract as Stros fans heaved a sign of relief that the best pitcher in the club’s history was remaining in Houston.
Well, according to this recent Mark Hale/NY Post story, once the Stros made it known last summer that they might be willing to move Roy O if the price was right, half a dozen teams became involved in non-stop negotiations and a trade of Roy O and other prominent Stros came much closer to reality than most folks previously thought:

Before last season’s trade deadline a little more than seven months ago, the Mets were trying to procure Oswalt, the Houston ace. They were talking with the Orioles about a follow-up trade to what would have been Baltimore’s acquisition of Oswalt from the Astros. Neither swap ever occurred.
It was a memorable sequence, though, that’s still worth considering now, especially with the Mets facing the Astros today [in spring training] and with starting pitching still their most significant issue. Through conversations with six different MLB team executives with knowledge of the multiple-team trade discussions, here’s a detailed look back at the days and hours leading up to the Oswalt trade disintegration.
Oswalt, one of the finest pitchers in the sport, was set to be a free agent after 2007, and when Houston began to be unsure about whether he would re-sign, the club became willing to hear proposals. To move Oswalt, however, the Astros wanted an established elite hitter.
From a prior inquiry, Omar Minaya already knew that he couldn’t get Oswalt by himself because the Mets didn’t have a hitter to deal. The Astros, though, did like Baltimore shortstop Miguel Tejada, but although the Orioles and Astros spoke, Baltimore required not only Oswalt but third baseman Morgan Ensberg and a prospect. When the two-team talks collapsed, Baltimore VP of baseball operations Jim Duquette determined that the two teams most interested in Oswalt were the Mets and Texas.
Minaya and Texas GM Jon Daniels both got calls from Duquette, and the situation began expanding. When the Mets heard that they could potentially land Oswalt, they were prepared to do anything in their power to do so, and they also internally discussed whether they could get a 72-hour window to sign him. Either way, however, the Mets believed that the fantastic right-hander could be re-signed.
They wouldn’t necessarily have proposed the best package for him, though.
One of the most interesting revelations about the events is that in one of the Texas-Baltimore proposals the principals were Texas third baseman Hank Blalock and pitching prospects John Danks and Thomas Diamond going to Baltimore for Oswalt and Ensberg. There was also another discussion that involved Houston reliever Brad Lidge heading to the Rangers.
As for the Mets’ package, there’s a discrepancy regarding who was involved from the Mets and whether Baltimore requested Mike Pelfrey. Names that were discussed, though, included Lastings Milledge, Aaron Heilman and Brian Bannister, but Minaya never made a final offer to Baltimore.
The trade deadline was at 4 p.m. on Monday, July 31, and at his home in New Jersey on Saturday night, Minaya believed that a trade had a shot, as he and the Orioles were discussing various players. The next morning, the GM flew down to Miami (where the Mets were going to be headed after their weekend series in Atlanta), and the involved teams began nearing a deal that day. The Mets were encouraged that a deal could go down, but later on Sunday, the Astros called Baltimore and told the O’s that Oswalt wasn’t getting dealt. Duquette then called Minaya with the verdict.
As for why it didn’t happen, another discrepancy exists – whether Houston owner Drayton McLane ultimately determined that Oswalt, his favorite Astro, couldn’t be dealt, or whether the swap collapsed because Baltimore was never going to be allowed to make the deal. Eventually, Oswalt re-signed with Houston.

Whew!

One of the favorite pastimes of folks who follow the Stros is to psychoanalyze reliever Brad Lidge. Some folks are now suggesting that a physical might be in order.
Everyone who follows the Stros knows the Lidge story. In 2004, Lidge burst on the scene in essentially his second season of Major Leage Baseball and was arguably the best relief pitchers in MLB. By the end of the 2006 season, Lidge (5.28 ERA/-6 RSAA) was one of the worst pitchers on the Stros pitching staff. It’s not really difficult to understand why — he simply lost his ability to throw his devastating slider for strikes consistently. As a result, hitters laid off Lidge’s slider and laid into his fastball, which Lidge does not locate well. Ever since his breakout 2004 performance (26 RSAA), Lidge has been trending steadily downward (only an 8 RSAA over the past two seasons). The more consistent Dan Wheeler now has a better RSAA than Lidge over the past three seasons and should be the closer going into this season.
At any rate, some folks believe that Lidge will come back and regain his form from the 2004 season. Richard Justice embraces that position.
On the other hand, the Baseball Prospectus folks are not as sanguine about the prospects of Lidge returning to his 2004 form:

The joke goes that the ball Albert Pujols hit off Brad Lidge in the 2005 NLCS still hasn’t landed. If so, it appears to have taken Lidge’s confidence along for the ride. Sabermetric orthodoxy would suggest that anyone can close, but Lidge never seemed to recover from that shot to the ego, flailing in the closer role last year. For those looking for a physical explnation for his poor showing, Lidge has a long history of arm and specifically elbow issues (as a starter in the low minors, he appeared in just 19 games from 1999 to 2001) owing to his violent mechanics. His struggles with his control last year just might be a portent of another date with the surgeon’s table.

Which leads us to today’s analysis of Lidge’s injury prospects for the upcoming season by Will Carroll, BP’s injury expert:

Brad Lidge: Injury risk: High. I canít tell you whatís going on in his head, but I am worried about whatís going on in his elbow. Lidgeís come-and-go control smells like the beginnings of elbow trouble, and his recent mechanical adjustments didnít help. A new pitching coach, Dave Wallace, is tasked with fixing Lidge. Thatís going to be a tall order.

Is Lidge starting to remind you of a right-handed Mitch Williams?