Today is Opening Day for Major League Baseball, so it’s time for my fourth annual Stros season preview (previous season reviews are here, here and here). Thankfully, it’s not been as tumultuous an off-season as the previous one, but there still have been several important developments with regard to the club since the end of the 2006 season:

The 2006 post-season recap, with final statistics and grading of each Stros player’s performance;
Analyzing the deals for the new Stros: Carlos Lee and Woody Williams, and Jason Jennings;
A proposed 2006 trade that I’m glad did not occur;
Say what? Alex Rodriguez is not a “good fit” for the Stros, while Adam Everett is?;
One of the favorite former Stros passes away unexpectedly;
The greatest Stros player in history prepares to retire, and a review of the best Stros hitters and pitchers;
Checking in down on the farm;
Is Richard Justice Andy Pettitte’s press agent?;
Is the Chronicle Brad Ausmus’ press agency?;
The risk of relying on Brad Lidge; and
Finally, the initial 2007 club roster.

After the best two-season run in club history in 2004-05 (NLCS and World Series appearances), the Stros in 2006 failed to make the playoffs for the first time in three seasons and for the only the fourth time in the past 10 seasons. The Stros played well down the stretch in 2006, posting a 21-12 record in their final 33 games, including a magical nine game winning streak that propelled the Stros during the final two weeks of the season from 8.5 games back to within a game of overtaking the World Champion Cardinals for the NL Central Division title.
However, the Stros were mediore for most of the rest of the season, including a brutal 42-55 stretch during the middle part of the season when the club’s poor hitting continually pulled down a pitching staff that slowly improved into one of the top staffs in the NL during the season. The overall result was an average National League team, which was reflected by the club’s final 82-80 record.
The trend over the past several seasons is that the Stros have used above-average pitching and defense to compensate for below-average hitting, but the club is tinkering with that approach this season. With the added production from Carlos Lee and the potentially above-average contributions from outfielders Luke Scott and farmhand Hunter Pence, the Stros have the potential to produce the best offense this season since the 2000 club. On the other hand, with the loss of starters Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, the Stros starting pitching is a big question mark after front-line starters Roy Oswalt and new acquisition Jennings. While the Stros will likely be better-balanced this season between hitting and pitching, it remains to be seen whether that balance will be the mix necessary to return the Stros to the playoffs.
During Spring Training this year, the competition for several roster spots was as sprightly as it’s been in many seasons. Thus, Pence — who had a great spring — was sent down for seasoning at AAA Round Rock, partly as a result of RF Jason Lane playing reasonably well after a horrid 2006 season. Meanwhile, longtime utility player Eric Bruntlett didn’t even make the club’s roster when the Stros elected to go with a 12 man pitching staff. Nevertheless, manager Phil Garner’s preference for veterans has hurt the clubs that he has managed over the years and and threatens to do so again in 2007 — what other reason than bias for veterans would justify having Wandy Rodriguez and Brian Moehler on the Stros’ pitching staff?
Along those lines, the biggest problem that the 2007 club faces is that 4/9’s of the lineup most days will include veterans C Ausmus, SS Everett, fading Hall-of-Famer Craig Biggio and the pitcher. Between Ausmus, Everett and Bidg, the Stros generated 89 fewer runs than what average National League hitters would have generated in those three positions over the course of the 2006 season. Even with strong offensive production from the other five positions and strong pitching, that many runs is difficult to make up.
Although he is a future Hall-of-Famer, one of the two best Stros players in history and a wonderful fellow, Bidg has no business at this stage of his career being a major-league regular — the Stros have two younger second basemen (Chris Burke and AAA player Brooks Conrad) who project to have better offensive statistics this season than Bidg.
Despite that, Garner not only plans on playing Bidg regularly, he plans on having him be the club’s leadoff hitter. Bidg’s walk rate, strikeout-to-walk ratio and on-base average have all deteriorated well below that of an average NL leadoff man, and his increased power over the past couple of seasons is at least partly an illusion created by the short left-field porch in Minute Maid Park. To top it all off, Bidg has such limited range and arm strength in the field that he has become a far below average defensive player.
Meanwhile, even though Burke isnít nearly as good a player as Bidg was at his age (27), his development has been stunted by the Stros making him into a utility player over the past couple of seasons while indulging Bidg. What is clear is that Burke is a better player than Bidg now and is the Strosí best option at second base. Playing Burke in centerfield ó alongside the somewhat immobile Lee in left and the servicable Luke Scott and Jason Lane in RF ó isn’t fair either to Burke or to the Strosí pitching staff.
How will Burke turn out in centerfield? It’s hard to say, but he is a good athlete and clearly an offensive upgrade over the traded Wily Taveras. Burke projects to produce .348 OBA/.452 SLG/.800 OPS this season, which would be a well above-average performance for an NL centerfielder. But playing Burke in centerfield would be a much better move if it wasnít designed to create space for an inferior player such as Bidg and if the Stros didn’t have to play in Minute Maid Park, which has a gargantuan centerfield. To put this in perspective, there is a big difference between what the Cubs are asking of Alfonso Soriano in the relatively small centerfield of Wrigley Field and what the Stros are asking of Burke in the cavernous centerfield of Minute Maid. Stated simply, the Stros should be playing Burke at his best position of second base where he would be better than Bidg both defensively and offensively.
With Burke in centerfield, that leaves Scott to play right, where he had an incredible second half last season and deserves an opportunity to prove that he is an every day player this season. Scott playing regularly also keeps the Stros from having seven right-handed batters and Lance Berkman in the regular lineup. Moreover, if Scott becomes an every day player, then that gives Garner the flexibility to play Jason Lane or call up Pence to play center and sliding Burke in for Bidg at second base, which clearly gives the Stros a stronger lineup.
Which brings us to Pence, who continues to hit everything that is pitched to him — his most recent fete was hitting a 412 foot Pujols-type blast off of the bedraggled Lidge in the Stros-Round Rock game this past Thursday. Pence will start the season at AAA Round Rock, but if he keeps hitting and 4/9th’s of the Stros’ lineup continues to generate zeros, he’s not likely to be there for long. While the Stros’ limited offensive approach worked in 2005-06 when their pitching staffs those seasons were allowing among the fewest runs of any NL staff, those days appear to be long gone.
The following is the projected Strosí lineup and bench for the 2007 season:
Biggio 2B
Ensberg 3B
Berkman 1B
Lee LF
Scott RF
Burke CF
Everett SS
Ausmus C
Pitcher
Bench: Humberto Quintero (C), Lane, Mike Lamb, Mark Loretta and Orlando Palmeiro.
The run of .300 OBA’s from the 7 hole through the leadoff spot is likely to be a real rally-killer for this offense. Hereís what the lineup would look like if Garner simply played the best players at each position:
Burke 2B
Pence CF
Berkman 1B
Lee LF
Scott RF
Ensberg 3B
Everett SS
Quintero C
Pitcher
Bench: Ausmus, Lamb, Lane, Loretta, and Palmeiro.
The difference between these two lineups is at least 30 runs over the course of a season, and probably more like 40-50. Thatís at least two wins on offense, probably more, plus better defense at second base and centerfield. No team in MLB can turn its back on a three-win improvement, particularly when you consider that the Stros have missed making the playoffs by just one game in two of the last four seasons.
Which brings us back to Bidg. The Stros have decided that heís going to be their regular 2nd sacker until at least he gets 3000 hits, but his presence at leadoff and in the field is a barrier that is preventing the Stros from making the moves necessary to generate and save more runs. Batting leadoff last season, Bidg scored just 79 runs last season. Take away his 21 home runs, and he scored just 58 times. Thatís pretty pathetic for a leadoff hitter.
Thus, in my view, the Stros are not making the hard decisions that are necessary to return to the playoffs in 2007. This looks like a team that is capable of winning between 85-90 wins at best, and is at least equally capable of falling to the 75 win level if the starting pitching doesn’t develop. The saving grace for the Stros is that all of the other NL Central teams appear to have similar limitations this season, so 85 wins just might be enough to win the division. But building a club for 85 wins in a season is not a prescription for continuing the long-term success of the Biggio-Bagwell era throughout the current Berkman-Oswalt era.
Finally, I am going to continue my periodic reviews of the Stros throughout the season, but I’m going to modify routine. Last season, I reviewed the Stros’ progress after each 10% segment of the season, which worked out reasonably well. This season, I’m going to split the 162 game season into eighths, so I will review the club’s progress after each 20 game segment of the season (I’ll do 21-game segments for the first and last eighths). So, look for my first in-season review around April 23rd, give or take a day or two in the event of a postponed game in the first weeks of the season.